Which battle in camp are you watching the closest?

[PBF81]

8 hours ago, Alphadawg7 said:

I disagree.  One, most “draft profile sites” are not run by real scouts and are mostly born out of fantasy football fans and research who made a job out of their passion.  Which is fine, but they aren’t the definitive source, don’t have anything close to the data, info, interviews, or even skills to really accurately break these guys down, otherwise they would be working in the NFL.
 

In the NFL scouts were split on him, but there were a lot of them who felt he was one of the most ready to contribute early, and a lot of that has to do with his high football IQ and how much a junkie he is for football, learning, and development.  Doesn't mean he doesn’t have things to work on to excel on the field, but that’s true for every rookie coming into the NFL, it’s more about do they do enough fundamentals correctly to where you can spend more time getting them ready for the NFL vs having to build the kid up first.  
 

And Coleman checks a lot of boxes for a lot of people.  Even Beane praised things like his footwork and understanding of the game as traits they saw in him and how he could come in and play the X this year.

 

Truth is…if you disagree with the Keon pick and doubt him then you can find all the confirmation bias on the internet you want for that.  If you think it’s a good pick and are excited for him, you can also find all the confirmation bias you want on the internet, because people were spilt on him.  
 

But…the thing that stands out for me is that MANY of the sites negative on him were NOT negative on him until after he ran his 40 at the combine.  What that tells me is that they aren’t grading him on all the data, they are letting the combine 40 paint a picture and tell a story where now they are fitting the narrative around that.  They aren’t factoring where he excelled or his much faster 40 at his pro day, etc.  

 

There were a lot of people who had him a lock for the first and ahead of guys like Thomas until his 40 time.  And it’s why Beane said “good” when he didn’t put this best 40 time at the combine because it would make it easier to get him. 

 

Well, as is always the case, there are narratives about him, the single biggest being the contested-catch one, which is flat out false.  I've posted that analysis that someone posted over at PFF that disproves that as well in contrast with his draft peers.   

 

We'll see, but your statements above are a double-edged sword as well.  Keep in mind, even more was said about Watkins and Jones.  

 

 

[PBF81]

7 hours ago, Rocky Landing said:

I suspect that when the 53-man roster is finally built, that there is going to be a broad range of types of receivers. A lot of hay has been made about these big-bodied receivers that are all competing for spots, and for good reason. But, opposing defenses are going to have to defend the whole field. That's what I think they're really going for this season.

 

Part of that field is deep however and we have fewer deep options now. 

 

 

7 hours ago, Rocky Landing said:

I think you're wrong about Coleman. That designation of "eventually being an average starter" may even be true, but it's a vague, and useless talking point. And it doesn't negate his strengths, or what his usefulness might be in a Josh Allen led offense. He has exceptional ball tracking, and his 40-time notwithstanding, he had the fastest gauntlet speed in the combine. However he pans out as a WR, he will stretch the field. (So will MVS/Claypool/Shorter/Shavers-- whomever gets a roster spot, their deficiencies notwithstanding...)

 

Many people think I'm wrong.  They also thought I was nuts in my assessments of Zay Jones and Watkins too.  We will see.  Hope he works out, I simply don't see it.  

 

 

7 hours ago, Rocky Landing said:

I actually think Allen's biggest strength in passing are the intermediate throws from 10 to 20 yards beyond the LOS, or 30-35 air yards. He consistently delivers those on a rope. That's ideal for the big guys we're going to have receiving the ball, as well. But, I'm expecting a much broader spread than that. Receiving ability is a requisite on this team. On any given play, there will be five legit receiving options on the field-- even in Jumbo packages. 

 

What I meant by his weakness is that he's not particularly good, below-average even I'd say, at reading all his options, being patient should his first not develop, and often taking the wide-open guy on the sides/flats/etc. that would be a big gain bc they're so wide open, he continues to look deep often.  

 

Also, is that why we drafted him and his "ability to make any throw," so that he could throw it like all the QBs that can't make any throw in a short game.  Rhetorical, just sayin'.  

 

 

7 hours ago, Rocky Landing said:

I also don't put much stock in Allen's (or Cook's) lower numbers after Brady took over. a) It's not a large enough sample size to be close to definitive. (And 96.6 to 85.5 really doesn't constitute a "plummet.") b) Those numbers are far less important than the win percentages. Dorsey= 0.500, Brady= 0.857.  

 

I would agree with you if the sample were lumpy in terms of constiency, but it was more patterned as the season wore on under Brady.  We'll see, we only have two months before the first preseason game.  

 

 

7 hours ago, Rocky Landing said:

I know this all sounds overly optimistic, and I fully admit to being that type of fan. I'm a homer, to be sure. But, I try to be realistic, as well. Not having an elite receiver like Diggs on the field is going to matter. Even as his production fell off at the end of the season, he was still drawing coverage. DCs were still game-planning him. Where my optimism comes from for 2024 is the notion that even with the loss of an elite WR in Diggs, the sum total of all the parts in the WR room could very well exceed that of 2023. That's not an expectation, but I think it's a reasonable hope.

 

We'll see.  I'm optimistic and bullish on Shakir.  What I'm not bullish on are McBrady and how they craft this offense.  It could hold Shakir and Allen down.  

 

 

7 hours ago, Rocky Landing said:

GO BILLS!

 

GO BILLS!!! 

 

 

[Alphadawg7]

11 minutes ago, PBF81 said:

 

Well, as is always the case, there are narratives about him, the single biggest being the contested-catch one, which is flat out false.  I've posted that analysis that someone posted over at PFF that disproves that as well in contrast with his draft peers.   

 

We'll see, but your statements above are a double-edged sword as well.  Keep in mind, even more was said about Watkins and Jones.  

 

 

 

Keep in mind probably 75% of this board and most the "analysis" said...even yelled..."Wrong Josh" too.  So the real lesson is that it is nobody really knows, that is why they play the games.  And given most these people loved Coleman before his combine 40 time again tells me they are over valuing what was not even his best 40 time, but also one of the least important stats in the first place for measuring on field live game speed  

 

And I don't agree with the contested-catch theory being disproved, that was significantly impacted by how Florida St use him and Wilson last year.  So I do not at all agree it is flat out false, especially coming from PFF.  

[Rampant Buffalo]

One battle I'm watching is to see whether Bills makes the final roster. Yeah, it's a long shot. But, it would be way cool to see a guy in a Bills uniform, with the word Bills on the back of his jersey.

[DapperCam]

In no particular order of interest

1. Center/LG
2. Who starts at Safety?
3. All of the WRs, especially 4-6 on the depth chart. Does Claypool make the team?
4. What will Milano look like? My understanding is that a tibial plateau fracture is not good.
5. Will Elam make the team? Will he be a starter?
6. Is Von Miller 100% washed.
7. Will Javon Solomon make the roster?
8. The RBs, especially Ray Davis. Related, will we hear again about a plan to limit Allen's rushing attempts?
9. Knox/Kincaid combo. Will they be on the field at the same time?
10. Will Bass have his head screwed on straight?
 

[PBF81]

1 hour ago, Alphadawg7 said:

Keep in mind probably 75% of this board and most the "analysis" said...even yelled..."Wrong Josh" too.  So the real lesson is that it is nobody really knows, that is why they play the games.  And given most these people loved Coleman before his combine 40 time again tells me they are over valuing what was not even his best 40 time, but also one of the least important stats in the first place for measuring on field live game speed  

 

I have no idea what anyone saw in Rosen at any time.  I would never ever draft a QB from USC.  

 

 

1 hour ago, Alphadawg7 said:

And I don't agree with the contested-catch theory being disproved, that was significantly impacted by how Florida St use him and Wilson last year.  So I do not at all agree it is flat out false, especially coming from PFF.  

 

It's very analytical.  That's how you get better info, from independents that really do independent research.  

 

Two guys from FSU put out a great piece on Manuel at the time with insights that no pro scout had produced.  

 

As to Coleman, you'll see what I'm referring to this season.  

 

 

[Rampant Buffalo]

1 hour ago, PBF81 said:

 

I have no idea what anyone saw in Rosen at any time.  I would never ever draft a QB from USC.  

 

 

 

It's very analytical.  That's how you get better info, from independents that really do independent research.  

 

Two guys from FSU put out a great piece on Manuel at the time with insights that no pro scout had produced.  

 

As to Coleman, you'll see what I'm referring to this season.  

 

 

 

First off, I agree with your overall point. While no draft pick ever is guaranteed success, a rigorous and independent analysis can be a useful tool for improving probabilities.

 

But using that type of rigorous analysis on Manuel seems rather like killing a housefly with a sledgehammer. A far more casual analysis, such as the one I did, should have been ample. When I watched his college highlights, I saw nothing which would set him apart from a typical college QB. The only two reasons to draft him at all were his physical tools, and his presence when he walked into a room. But plenty of people could exert a strong presence when walking into a room, without necessarily having the ability to succeed as NFL QBs. His physical tools ultimately proved not good enough. Manuel (4.6 in the 40) was benched for Tyrod Taylor (4.4) by an offensive coordinator who prizes a QB's mobility above all other traits.

 

Drafting the wrong QB is worse than drafting no QB. The wrong QB means several years of self-delusion, during which the search for the right QB is put on hold. A front office with any level of competence at all would have avoided the Manuel pick like the plague.

[Pete]

Wide Receiver and Special Teams

[Alphadawg7]

7 hours ago, PBF81 said:

 

I have no idea what anyone saw in Rosen at any time.  I would never ever draft a QB from USC.  

 

Yet, your view put you in the minority.  Ironically, your view now puts you in the pro-Rosen camp in that comparison this time.

 

7 hours ago, PBF81 said:

 

 

 

It's very analytical.  That's how you get better info, from independents that really do independent research.  

 

Wrong.  That is how you get just more OPINIONS from less informed and less qualified football fans who turned their fanhood into a website to make some money.  They do not have remotely close the "research" that the Bills scouting department does nor do they have even a fraction of the time scouting them.  Doesn't mean that they can never be right, just means the info they provide is not better info than professional scouts who have more data, more time, more skills, and more experience.

 

7 hours ago, PBF81 said:

 

Two guys from FSU put out a great piece on Manuel at the time with insights that no pro scout had produced.  

 

So I guess that means 70% of this board are pro-scout level analysts because they too thought EJ Manuel was a bad pick and was gonna suck.  Second of all, It is fine that you have a different opinion of Keon, but don't start making up false facts to sell your opinion...you have literally no idea what insights pro-scouts had on Manuel because the NFL and their pro-scouts do not share their notes publicly.  So to say they produced insights that "no pro scout produced" is a totally baseless claim.

 

7 hours ago, PBF81 said:

 

As to Coleman, you'll see what I'm referring to this season.  

 

 

 

Personally, I feel like most often the people who feel the need to prove an unproven rookie who has never stepped on the field won't be good are doing so more so because they are more vested in being right and want to say "see I told you so".  And of course, they never bring up all the other rookies they were wrong about either, they just like to revel in the guesses that they guessed right on.  

 

We will see what Coleman does or doesn't do this season...but for me, there is nothing anyone has put in writing today, good or bad, that I trust to predict this kids future.  Trying to come up with a conclusive decision of how good or bad he can be today before he has played one snap of NFL football is a fools game.  And no matter how down you want to be on a player because of something you read on some website, there is still a lot of positives analysis on him and potential you are choosing to ignore instead of just looking forward to seeing what he can do. 

 

 

[SoCal Deek]

10 hours ago, PBF81 said:

 

I have no idea what anyone saw in Rosen at any time.  I would never ever draft a QB from USC.  

 

 

 

 

It should be noted that Josh Rosen definitely did NOT go to USC. He played for that ‘other school’ across town. Fight on! 

[BearNorth]

I'm hoping we keep a couple of "really fast" guys on both sides of the ball.  Miami is putting together probably; position for position; the fastest roster the NFL has ever seen.  Just hope we can keep up, and still worried about our guys tongues hanging out in the second half.

 

[Putin]

On 6/8/2024 at 8:55 AM, PBF81 said:

 

With you here, but I'll add to it.  I'm not so much interested in the competition among the WRs.  It seems pretty clear that the two leading receivers on this team should be and likely will be Shakir and Kincaid.  If we weren't forcing ourselves into this "complimentary football" model it shouldn't be unreasonable to expect Shakir to post well over 1,000 receiving yards and 8+ TDs.  I'd anticipate receiving yards in the order of Shakir, kincaid, Samuel, Cook and then who knows.  Coleman is not NFL ready despite narratives.  Top draft profiling sites have him listed as eventually being an average starter.  IMO that's generous.  I do not see him even approaching success in the X-WR role.  

 

For me it's more of what their plan is in the passing game.  It keeps changing from season to season and has once again changed, now purportedly being a short-medium game.  The curiosity for me is that this does not feed into Allen's strengths as a passer, it feeds more into a game-managing QB role.  

 

Some rhetorical questions: 

 

Will they allow Allen and provide for him to go deep as often as he likes to?   Certainly our WR roster isn't built for that.  Shakir is the only WR that has proven anything that is capable of going deep with much aplomb.  Coleman in the X-role begs questioning.  

 

They obviously want him to throw short-medium more, how will he be in that role given that if he has a weakness, that's it.  Last season his completion % and rating plummeted from 70.3% and 96.6 to 60.7% and 85.5 going from Dorsey to Brady.  That's a 10% drop in compl.% and 15 point drop in rating, which is enormous.  It's over a third-way down drop in rating ranking and from first to DFL in compl.% ranking.  His passing scoring production was cut by 26%.  He averaged a mere 1 passing TD in his last five games.  

 

What will impact the passing game is their plans for running the ball.  Cook petered out last season averaging a bottom-dwelling 3.6 YPC under Brady not including that Dallas game.  Even with the Dallas game he averaged 4.3 under Brady, very average, and a drop from 5.1 under Dorsey.  Is the plan to use Davis in a big role?  How is that different than when we had Singletary and Moss, both of which came into the league with greater draft potential than Davis.  

 

It seems that this team is going to continue to try to play '90s football despite our core talent being capable of much much more in the passing game.  Whether that works out well or is much less the wisest thing to do remains to be seen.  

 

 

So you won’t be asking Santa for a Colman jersey this Christmas ? 

[Putin]

1 hour ago, BearNorth said:

I'm hoping we keep a couple of "really fast" guys on both sides of the ball.  Miami is putting together probably; position for position; the fastest roster the NFL has ever seen.  Just hope we can keep up, and still worried about our guys tongues hanging out in the second half.

 

And yet with all that speed we beat them by 28 points at home and should have beaten them by 21 in Miami if not for 4 turnovers by Josh , 

As long as don’t play them at 1:00 pm in South Beach I ain’t worried 

[PBF81]

8 hours ago, Alphadawg7 said:

Yet, your view put you in the minority.  Ironically, your view now puts you in the pro-Rosen camp in that comparison this time.

 

Not sure what you mean by that.  

 

 

8 hours ago, Alphadawg7 said:

Wrong.  That is how you get just more OPINIONS from less informed and less qualified football fans who turned their fanhood into a website to make some money.  They do not have remotely close the "research" that the Bills scouting department does nor do they have even a fraction of the time scouting them.  Doesn't mean that they can never be right, just means the info they provide is not better info than professional scouts who have more data, more time, more skills, and more experience.

 

You operate under the assumption that the majority of "draft analysts" actually do much of their own analysis, rather than drawing on existing narratives and the "analysis" of a few.  The number, from experience that is, that conduct their "analysis" from highlight video is telling enough.  

 

Either way, to each his own in that way.  

 

 

[PBF81]

5 hours ago, SoCal Deek said:

It should be noted that Josh Rosen definitely did NOT go to USC. He played for that ‘other school’ across town. Fight on! 

 

Same thing.  LOL  What's the best that came out of either, who, Aikman?  He was good, but he was hardly a prolific passer.   Personally I would never draft a QB from the PAC-12.  Their defenses are too weak.  That's just me though.  

 

 

[blacklabel]

Intern Timmy vs. Paulie Porkchops in the battle of the sideline tablet wranglers. Paulie is the incumbent but this Timmy kid really has a chance to take the jorb. 

[PBF81]

2 hours ago, Putin said:

So you won’t be asking Santa for a Colman jersey this Christmas ? 

 

LOL 

 

By Christmas I'm not sure that too many people will be.  

 

 

[3rdand12]

On 6/7/2024 at 7:33 AM, Don Otreply said:

Center, left guard, and the O-line as a whole, 

WR and RB groups, (their success relies on the O/line)

The D as a whole, several question marks there. 
Also how we adapt to the new kick off rules, 
 

 

Center and left guard kinda go hand in hand in this case !
Would love to see the Draftee make an impact and move Connor back. That is a win win.

But I expect McGovern will hold it down.

 

Here's the weird thing for me. How do you move Connor back to left guard midseason gently

 

WR is the biggest unknown . Who plays and where do they line up ?

On 6/7/2024 at 10:18 AM, Beast said:

Wide Receivers. I believe any one of 4 or 5 could end up being our #1 and a couple of those guys that have the chance to be the #1 also have a chance of not making the squad.

I put up a laugh emoji

 because you are really not that far from the truth

and crazy to consider !

[3rdand12]

On 6/8/2024 at 3:36 AM, GunnerBill said:

Safety. Because unless Bishop can win a job in camp it is the weakest unit we will put on the field week 1.

Rapp came on , during back half with smarter play. And has mentioned that being mentored in McDs system by Hyde and Poyer has really given him the understanding and mental tools to play well

 Edwards was brought in to replace Hyde ? That was my expectation

Lets hope Bishop can get solid reps early. And i might expect he does. Hamlin can play situational etc Hyde is still a wildcard

 

I think we are all spoiled by the dynamic duo of Hyde and Poyer being such smart players calling defenses !

Not sure i feel it's the weakest. But it sure is something to watch develop

[Alphadawg7]

3 hours ago, PBF81 said:

 

Not sure what you mean by that.  

 

Meaning you are on the more common reaction side of not loving the Coleman pick...like how preferring Rosen was the more popular stance over Allen.  

 

3 hours ago, PBF81 said:

 

 

 

You operate under the assumption that the majority of "draft analysts" actually do much of their own analysis, rather than drawing on existing narratives and the "analysis" of a few.  The number, from experience that is, that conduct their "analysis" from highlight video is telling enough.  

 

Either way, to each his own in that way.  

 

 

 

You are just furthering my point agreeing that all these "analysts" have done no where near the work NFL Scouting departments have, don't have the skills, and draw off a few other hobbiest who made a website for people like us to read.  

 

And every argument you made against Coleman was quoting one of these analysts who you just said rarely do their own analysis in the first place and mostly base it on highlight videos.  

 

None of this matters...we will see what Coleman can or can't do soon enoughj