SCBills Posted July 30 Share Posted July 30 Good breakdown of PA polls, as the election could legitimately come down to that state if Trump holds the Sun Belt and Harris holds MI/WI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Backintheday544 Posted July 30 Share Posted July 30 9 minutes ago, The Frankish Reich said: Good point. But of course that was March, long before the debate debacle. 538 does a good job of aggregating the polls to look at them here: https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/ You can also sort by state. Here’s a good Reddit thread that covers polls as they come out: 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Frankish Reich Posted July 30 Share Posted July 30 https://www.natesilver.net/p/harris-trump-electoral-college Nate Silver's update. Note that the electoral college advantage is still squarely with Trump, but it's a lot closer than when Biden was in the race. A completely expected trend: RFK Jr's support starting to crater. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Coffeesforclosers Posted July 30 Share Posted July 30 (edited) The rumor mill is spinning hard for Beshear as VP. Supposedly his security detail has increased suddenly and dramatically. Edited July 30 by Coffeesforclosers Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SCBills Posted July 30 Share Posted July 30 16 minutes ago, Coffeesforclosers said: The rumor mill is spinning hard for Beshear as VP. Supposedly his security detail has increased suddenly and dramatically. Interesting. He’s kind of akin to the Dem version of Youngkin. Popular Governor of a state typically opposed to his party. Kentucky is firmly not in play. No AZ/PA VP help … I have heard from more than one place that Kamala may actually be targeting GA/NC in anticipation of losing AZ, NV, PA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Backintheday544 Posted July 30 Share Posted July 30 3 minutes ago, SCBills said: Interesting. He’s kind of akin to the Dem version of Youngkin. Popular Governor of a state typically opposed to his party. Kentucky is firmly not in play. No AZ/PA VP help … I have heard from more than one place that Kamala may actually be targeting GA/NC in anticipation of losing AZ, NV, PA. NC is surprisingly in play from recent polls. I don’t know if it’s flipable tho. Nate Solver did a recent write up that a VP doesn’t deliver a state. So a popular D in a firm R state could show the ticket is more moderate and attract the people who don’t really like Trump but don’t want as far left as Kamala. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
K D Posted July 30 Share Posted July 30 7 minutes ago, Backintheday544 said: NC is surprisingly in play from recent polls. I don’t know if it’s flipable tho. Nate Solver did a recent write up that a VP doesn’t deliver a state. So a popular D in a firm R state could show the ticket is more moderate and attract the people who don’t really like Trump but don’t want as far left as Kamala. That's pretty wild that NC could even be in question. Everyone from NY moved there and kept voting the same way. The locals must be going crazy 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Backintheday544 Posted July 30 Share Posted July 30 1 hour ago, The Frankish Reich said: https://www.natesilver.net/p/harris-trump-electoral-college Nate Silver's update. Note that the electoral college advantage is still squarely with Trump, but it's a lot closer than when Biden was in the race. A completely expected trend: RFK Jr's support starting to crater. Silvers averages for Trump are interesting. A drop post assassination and post JD Vance pick (also that’s their convention date). Two things you’d expect an uptick led to a small downturn. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Big Blitz Posted July 30 Author Share Posted July 30 Remember all they are doing is lying and making stuff up. Like always. Community noted. Lol lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
K D Posted July 30 Share Posted July 30 1 minute ago, Big Blitz said: Remember all they are doing is lying and making stuff up. Like always. Community noted. Lol lol Joe Burrow gets injured walking down the street. He's aiming to get that free healthcare so this was believable 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Coffeesforclosers Posted July 30 Share Posted July 30 20 minutes ago, SCBills said: Interesting. He’s kind of akin to the Dem version of Youngkin. Popular Governor of a state typically opposed to his party. Yeah. Kentucky is sewn up for the GOP. It'd be a waste of talent to keep him their where local machines (like the one run by Mitch McConnell) can keep a lid on him. It's the sort of choice that's designed to stretch the electoral map. Like what Trump should have done. 20 minutes ago, SCBills said: Kentucky is firmly not in play. No AZ/PA VP help … I have heard from more than one place that Kamala may actually be targeting GA/NC in anticipation of losing AZ, NV, PA. Harris' PA polling has improved significantly, she's almost got a lead bigger than the Margin of Error in PA. I don't know about playing for GA and NC, with AZ and NV still around. AZ and NV are going to be more receptive to her message and easier to influence. Honestly, I think her plan is to keep the Trump campaign scrambling until they pull a Biden. That is, until they panic and demand a debate. Then hope Trump turns a meandering, angry, geriatric performance and turns the lights out on his own campaign. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SCBills Posted July 30 Share Posted July 30 57 minutes ago, Coffeesforclosers said: Yeah. Kentucky is sewn up for the GOP. It'd be a waste of talent to keep him their where local machines (like the one run by Mitch McConnell) can keep a lid on him. It's the sort of choice that's designed to stretch the electoral map. Like what Trump should have done. Harris' PA polling has improved significantly, she's almost got a lead bigger than the Margin of Error in PA. I don't know about playing for GA and NC, with AZ and NV still around. AZ and NV are going to be more receptive to her message and easier to influence. Honestly, I think her plan is to keep the Trump campaign scrambling until they pull a Biden. That is, until they panic and demand a debate. Then hope Trump turns a meandering, angry, geriatric performance and turns the lights out on his own campaign. Harris polling in PA has improved, but she’s still relying on outlier polls to make it look anything but a Trump +2 state currently. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Backintheday544 Posted July 30 Share Posted July 30 19 minutes ago, SCBills said: Harris polling in PA has improved, but she’s still relying on outlier polls to make it look anything but a Trump +2 state currently. I think Trump is more +1, +1.5 in PA. https://www.realclearpolling.com/polls/president/general/2024/pennsylvania/trump-vs-harris The only thing pushing Trump above 2 is an outlier +7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Frankish Reich Posted July 30 Share Posted July 30 1 hour ago, Big Blitz said: Remember all they are doing is lying and making stuff up. Like always. Community noted. Lol lol So what's your point? Or "Antoninus's" point? That "disinformation should be policed?" You mean like it was here? The Community Notes thing seems to be working reasonably well as a crowd-sourced policeman. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Backintheday544 Posted July 30 Share Posted July 30 Didn’t see this one coming: This would give Harris a landslide victory. Outlier for now but something to watch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Starr-Bills Posted July 30 Share Posted July 30 6 hours ago, The Frankish Reich said: https://www.natesilver.net/p/harris-trump-electoral-college Nate Silver's update. Note that the electoral college advantage is still squarely with Trump, but it's a lot closer than when Biden was in the race. A completely expected trend: RFK Jr's support starting to crater. Founded in 2020, Polymarket has raised a total of $70 million from investors including Peter Thiel's Founders Fund (which was an early investor in CoinDesk's parent company Bullish) and Ethereum creator Vitalik Buterin. not sure Nate is ummm impartial. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Coffeesforclosers Posted July 30 Share Posted July 30 19 minutes ago, Backintheday544 said: Didn’t see this one coming: This would give Harris a landslide victory. Outlier for now but something to watch. Be careful with any polling of the Upper Midwest. Public pollsters had them all going for Biden by 10+ in 2020. Biden didn't believe it, Trump didn't either, and Biden did just enough to win them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChiGoose Posted July 30 Share Posted July 30 Here’s a good view of the trends with the Bloomberg poll Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tommy Callahan Posted July 30 Share Posted July 30 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Big Blitz Posted July 31 Author Share Posted July 31 (edited) 45 minutes ago, ChiGoose said: Here’s a good view of the trends with the Bloomberg poll And no way those polls are close - all of them showing Harris bumps at the moment are a complete sham designed to create bandwagon impact - which low info Dems have zero issues swallowing. Edited July 31 by Big Blitz 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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