SCBills Posted November 3 Posted November 3 Yea, these cross tabs are ridiculous… She better hope she’s right, because if not… this was completely irresponsible, bordering on an in-kind campaign contribution.
K D Posted November 3 Posted November 3 2 minutes ago, SCBills said: Yea, these cross tabs are ridiculous… She better hope she’s right, because if not… this was completely irresponsible, bordering on an in-kind campaign contribution. Compromised.
ChiGoose Posted November 3 Posted November 3 7 minutes ago, K D said: 1. It’s a really bad idea to try to make predictions from the early vote 2. Do you think all of those registered Republicans are actually voting for Trump? 3. How confident are you that these are new early voters and not cannibalization of the Election Day vote?
JaCrispy Posted November 3 Posted November 3 2 hours ago, Tommy Callahan said: Man, the polls are all over the place…not sure what to believe
SCBills Posted November 3 Posted November 3 (edited) 1 hour ago, ChiGoose said: 1. It’s a really bad idea to try to make predictions from the early vote 2. Do you think all of those registered Republicans are actually voting for Trump? 3. How confident are you that these are new early voters and not cannibalization of the Election Day vote? I agree it doesn’t make a ton of sense to compare to 2020 as ‘20 was a one off covid election. This is what makes Tuesday so completely unpredictable. R’s can ask similar questions.. why would people who typically vote early for Dems, all of a sudden vote on E-Day? R data shows that a lot of their early vote are low propensity voters, but for instance.. R seniors have not turned out yet for Trump in PA. Are they waiting for E-Day as R’s are more likely to do, or is that an underlying issue that could lose him the election? Polls are all over the place. AtlasIntel for Trump, NYT/Siena for Harris. Right leaning Iowa for Harris in the ultra reliable Ann Selzer poll. Left leaning hopium poll all cycle, Morning Consult, breaks for Trump. I think what Atlas says is true.. if white men show up on Tuesday, Trump wins. If it’s a meh showing, Harris has the edge. I think Trump will get a small amount of D crossover, but I do think more R’s will vote Harris than vice versa .. to what extent, we’ll see. Still some Haley supporters & DeSantis supporters who became Never Trump after the primary, plus those who were that to begin with. I could see that R crossover being maybe more in GA, NC and AZ… As Trump has a different appeal to white working class folks in PA, WI and MI that seems to mitigate the Never Trump sentiment. Edited November 3 by SCBills
SCBills Posted November 3 Posted November 3 We shall see… Ryan Gidursky, best known for getting banned from CNN last week, has consistently posited that liberal seniors are being way overrepresented in polling. 1
K D Posted November 3 Posted November 3 4 minutes ago, SCBills said: We shall see… Ryan Gidursky, best known for getting banned from CNN last week, has consistently posited that liberal seniors are being way overrepresented in polling. Polls will never be accurate because Trump voters don't believe in polls and won't respond to them. Most Trump supporters don't even put up yard signs because unhinged neighbors will attack them. There are the loud and boisterous Trump guys with flags on their truck but most Trump voters are just normal family people that are sick of the weird stuff. 2 more days. 1
Governor Posted November 3 Posted November 3 39 minutes ago, JaCrispy said: Man, the polls are all over the place…not sure what to believe There’s 3 possible outcomes. Harris could win by 6, win by 12, or it’s a wave election where Iowa, NC, and others all flip. Which one do you fancy? 1 1 1
K D Posted November 3 Posted November 3 2 minutes ago, Governor said: There’s 3 possible outcomes. Harris could win by 6, win by 12, or it’s a wave election where Iowa, NC, and others all flip. Which one do you fancy? This thread is for polls, not for unhinged predictions. Take it to the prediction thread so we can laugh at you there. 1
Governor Posted November 3 Posted November 3 I always felt it was going to be Biden/Harris by 8 OR a landslide victory so this is pretty exciting. Landslide is definitely on the table now. 1
ChiGoose Posted November 3 Posted November 3 34 minutes ago, K D said: Polls will never be accurate because Trump voters don't believe in polls and won't respond to them. Most Trump supporters don't even put up yard signs because unhinged neighbors will attack them. There are the loud and boisterous Trump guys with flags on their truck but most Trump voters are just normal family people that are sick of the weird stuff. 2 more days. Anecdotally, every Harris yard sign in my neighborhood (including mine) was stolen the other night while both Trump signs are still up, untouched.
K D Posted November 3 Posted November 3 1 minute ago, ChiGoose said: Anecdotally, every Harris yard sign in my neighborhood (including mine) was stolen the other night while both Trump signs are still up, untouched. Where I used to work it was perfectly acceptable to wear Black Lives Matter shirts but a Maga hat would get you fired. One side is socially acceptable and I think polls reflect that. People won't tell a stranger on them phone if they are voting Trump. That's how we end up with all of these whacky polls
Biden is Mentally Fit Posted November 3 Posted November 3 2 minutes ago, ChiGoose said: Anecdotally, every Harris yard sign in my neighborhood (including mine) was stolen the other night while both Trump signs are still up, untouched. Why do people that live in a place where the election results are not remotely in doubt put political signs out? Virtue signaling?
ChiGoose Posted November 4 Posted November 4 This a pretty good (and quick) interview with Ann Selzer on her poll and methodology. Ann Selzer: How Could This Be? The big difference between her and most other pollsters is that she does not do recall vote to try to fit to a prior election’s turnout (I.e. assuming the electorate is going to be more like 2022 or 2020). She mainly just screens for likely voters and weights by demographics and geography from there. She mentioned that one of the biggest surprises was that women over 65 have moved from generally supporting Republicans to voting for Harris at a 2:1 clip.
RiotAct Posted November 4 Posted November 4 19 hours ago, SCBills said: Yea, these cross tabs are ridiculous… She better hope she’s right, because if not… this was completely irresponsible, bordering on an in-kind campaign contribution. a 26-point swing to democrats in the suburbs, by the people who have been the most reamed by out of control inflation under Dementia Boy’s regime? Oooookay 😂 3
K D Posted November 4 Posted November 4 1 hour ago, ChiGoose said: This a pretty good (and quick) interview with Ann Selzer on her poll and methodology. Ann Selzer: How Could This Be? The big difference between her and most other pollsters is that she does not do recall vote to try to fit to a prior election’s turnout (I.e. assuming the electorate is going to be more like 2022 or 2020). She mainly just screens for likely voters and weights by demographics and geography from there. She mentioned that one of the biggest surprises was that women over 65 have moved from generally supporting Republicans to voting for Harris at a 2:1 clip.
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