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2024 Election Polls - President - Senate - House


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On 10/25/2024 at 7:53 AM, BillsFanNC said:

 

I'm in the Triangle region so yes its a blue area. I have to say despite that I see way more Trump signs than Harris signs driving around town. 

 

My personal experience backs up that NC early voting data posted above. 2+ hour waits every day of voting so far at my polling place and I've never seen that before. This suggests that Republicans are indeed doing the right thing and banking their vote early.

 

On 10/25/2024 at 7:46 AM, K D said:

Where abouts are you? I'm assuming outside of Charlotte and the Triangle that it's mostly Trump country there? I've spent some time there and it's hard to imagine it being a state that's in doubt but likely half of the state is from NY at this point which I'm sure the locals are not too happy about. 

In Piedmont triad. Reside in an enclave of Dems and plenty of Harris/Walz signs with the older 60+ folks around. Guilford (Greensboro )and Forsyth county (Winston Salem) will go blue. Guilford not as blue as in the past. Alamance (beside Guilford before Durham) could be an important county. Davidson, Davie, Rockingham, Stokes red. Rowan and Randolph have been turning slightly blue. Cabarrus & Mecklenburg (Charlotte), buncombe (Asheville), the. The stretch from RDU to Greenville leans blue. It'll be interesting to see the final numbers but can't imagine NC going Harris but 100% expect Josh Stein to win gov and the Republicans to get whooped down ticket. 

 

Most signs I see are Trump but maybe 2:1 ratio at most.

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14 minutes ago, Biden is Mentally Fit said:

All the Kam fans should listen to backintheday - there’s real money to be made taking KH to win…FLORIDA

 

Good heavens. That guy went all in on a nonexistent video and it left him delusional. 

I've already said I would be betting on Trump to win.

But ... Polymarket is hot garbage. It's the Puerto Rico of prediction markets. We've seen it manipulated in real time by one whale who didn't appear to be in it for the money. Someday, maybe. Not now.

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Ralston updated Nevada numbers, still brutal for Dems.  R’s have a little over a 5% lead currently.  
 

Arizona and North Carolina numbers, by raw data, look horrible for Harris as well. 
 

Harris looks like she’ll need to utterly dominate the Independent vote to have a chance in any of those 3 states. 
 

Internally, reports from both campaigns show some Harris folks thinking Georgia is slipping away.   Not sure why, as the raw data doesn’t seem awful, but early indications do show they aren’t getting what they need from metro Atlanta black turnout + increased rural turnout.  I’m here in GA and wouldn’t rule it out for Harris though.  Does seem like edge is to Trump here.  
 

That leaves the Blue Wall. 
 

Reports from MI seem decent for Harris.  
 

Conversely, reports from WI, do not. 
 

PA, looks like the best Dems can do is hit a 500k firewall, which was the number some set.   Others don’t think that’s remotely enough.  We’ll see. 
 

Early data from the Trump campaign shows they are turning out far more low/mid propensity voters than Harris so far and feel confident in the remaining numbers for their E-Day vote.   If true, this was always the key for Trump. 

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46 minutes ago, SCBills said:

Dems currently sitting at a 381k firewall in PA

 

 

I don't speak pollster, can you explain what the "firewall" means? Does that mean the buffer of inner city votes that the rural areas have to overcome to win? So the R's need more than 380k votes to overcome the anticipated D lead due to them owning the cities?

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3 minutes ago, K D said:

I don't speak pollster, can you explain what the "firewall" means? Does that mean the buffer of inner city votes that the rural areas have to overcome to win? So the R's need more than 380k votes to overcome the anticipated D lead due to them owning the cities?

 

I believe they are stating if the gap is over 500k in the EV that it means the state will be blue. Although that number seems subjective and no one is sure where it came from.

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4 minutes ago, Bray Wyatt said:

 

I believe they are stating if the gap is over 500k in the EV that it means the state will be blue. Although that number seems subjective and no one is sure where it came from.

 

 

True, but that "wall" is also much smaller than it was in 2016 and 2020.

 

and look at the results then.

 

.

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5 minutes ago, B-Man said:

 

 

True, but that "wall" is also much smaller than it was in 2016 and 2020.

 

and look at the results then.

 

.

 

Right, based on his previous posts I think it was over 1 mill last time? and it was super close

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14 minutes ago, K D said:

I don't speak pollster, can you explain what the "firewall" means? Does that mean the buffer of inner city votes that the rural areas have to overcome to win? So the R's need more than 380k votes to overcome the anticipated D lead due to them owning the cities?


PA has early vote, but it’s not in-person early vote, where R’s are strongly over performing thus far.

 

It’s all mail-in vote.   That typically STRONGLY favors Dems. 
 

For an example, Biden had over 1.1M as a firewall (Dem ballots returned vs R ballots returned).   Biden won by less than 100k. 
 

Now, that was 2020, covid year.. so hard to extrapolate that to this year, but just providing an example. 
 

Low end estimates are that 500k is needed for Dems to have a decent chance on Election Day. 
 

As it stands, it’s at 381k and based on outstanding ballots/ballot requests, the absolute best they can do, is to reach 500k… and there’s no guarantee that’s enough.  
 

Really just depends how Indies break (conventional thought from Dems is that they usually win them in PA at a 70/30 split) and can R’s turn out new voters and low propensity voters, as they’ve registered a ton of those types in the past few years. 

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Let’s look at polls vs real life…

 

(and this goes both ways)

 

North Carolina:

 

Two polls recently released show NC tied. 
 

Early voting is very strong for Republicans & the Harris campaign just pulled a $2M ad buy in the state. 

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37 minutes ago, SCBills said:

Let’s look at polls vs real life…

 

(and this goes both ways)

 

North Carolina:

 

Two polls recently released show NC tied. 
 

Early voting is very strong for Republicans & the Harris campaign just pulled a $2M ad buy in the state. 

Do you think that means Dems are conceding NC to try and save Virginia? That's how I took it

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2 minutes ago, K D said:

Do you think that means Dems are seceding NC to try and save Virginia? That's how I took it


Not sure if I truly believe places like VA, NM or MN are in play, but all the raw data and canpaign actions point to NC being conceded to Trump. 

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