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2024 Election Polls - President - Senate - House


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California obviously doesn’t matter electorally, but as an indicator on whether Trump can win the popular vote…

 

Clearly Covid plays a part, but this is a massive difference  

 

 

Edited by SCBills
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13 minutes ago, SCBills said:


ABC/Ipsos and Morning Consult have been what Democrats are pointing to.

 

Definitely her best polls with those two polling groups.  


 

The cross tabs are interesting too 

 

 

There’s another poll by Big Village with Harris up even more but I’m not putting any stock into a C-tier pollster. 

 

 

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Michael Pruser is a great follow on X for raw data.

 

His most recent sun belt updates show R’s still up in NC & NV EV, with GA showing higher than normal rural returns, with DeKalb & Fulton (Atlanta) down a bit from 2020 and 2022 in terms of percentage of EV thus far. 
 

 

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12 minutes ago, SCBills said:

Michael Pruser is a great follow on X for raw data.

 

His most recent sun belt updates show R’s still up in NC & NV EV, with GA showing higher than normal rural returns, with DeKalb & Fulton (Atlanta) down a bit from 2020 and 2022 in terms of percentage of EV thus far. 
 

 


Don’t think Harris pulls out Nevada this year 

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33 minutes ago, Roundybout said:


Don’t think Harris pulls out Nevada this year 


Probably inconsequential anyway.. unless something crazy happens in an unexpected state like Virginia, Trump loses Georgia or the apocalyptic NE-2 scenario. 
 

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28 minutes ago, Biden is Mentally Fit said:

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2024-election-forecast/

 

Sharing this as a courtesy to backintheday. He used to love this but he hasn’t shared it in awhile. He might be awol after his unhinged performance in the groping thread he started. 

He would say "so it's a coin flip."

 

And also "ANSWER THE QUESTION!!!!!"

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1 minute ago, Biden is Mentally Fit said:

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2024-election-forecast/

 

Today’s update especially for the one-time fan backintheday. 54-46 probability for Orange Voldemort. Five weeks ago it was 64-36 for Harris. Any thoughts about that from Harris “fans”?

I think that's about right.

 

Again, I feel like Nate Silver here, albeit with better hair and less money. The fact that I want Harris to win doesn't influence my reasoned opinion that Trump is a slight favorite. Why would it?

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