BillsFanNC Posted October 25 Posted October 25 10 minutes ago, K D said: Dems need to get those fake ballot printers working overtime! Or are they just going to fudge the numbers directly through the Dominion box that is hooked to the internet? If we overwhelm them it will be too big to rig!! Thankfully in NC I had to present an ID to get my ballot. 2
K D Posted October 25 Posted October 25 4 minutes ago, BillsFanNC said: Thankfully in NC I had to present an ID to get my ballot. Where abouts are you? I'm assuming outside of Charlotte and the Triangle that it's mostly Trump country there? I've spent some time there and it's hard to imagine it being a state that's in doubt but likely half of the state is from NY at this point which I'm sure the locals are not too happy about.
BillsFanNC Posted October 25 Posted October 25 1 minute ago, K D said: Where abouts are you? I'm assuming outside of Charlotte and the Triangle that it's mostly Trump country there? I've spent some time there and it's hard to imagine it being a state that's in doubt but likely half of the state is from NY at this point which I'm sure the locals are not too happy about. I'm in the Triangle region so yes its a blue area. I have to say despite that I see way more Trump signs than Harris signs driving around town. My personal experience backs up that NC early voting data posted above. 2+ hour waits every day of voting so far at my polling place and I've never seen that before. This suggests that Republicans are indeed doing the right thing and banking their vote early. 1 1
SCBills Posted October 25 Posted October 25 Some PA Dems think +500k is the firewall number needed by Election Day Best case scenario is now +500k
Joe Ferguson forever Posted October 25 Posted October 25 On 10/23/2024 at 1:14 PM, SCBills said: Republicans starting to put the firewall EV hope of Democrats at serious risk in PA. The firewall number looks very good for Harris. This could be deja vu all over again. https://www.realclearpolling.com/polls/president/general/2012/obama-vs-romney 7 minutes ago, Big Blitz said: VA is in play Virginia is going Harris. Bank on it. Oct. 22-24 725LV Quantus Insights TrendingPoliticsHarris 49% 48% Trump Harris+1 Sept. 28-Oct. 4 800LV Christopher Newport University Wason Center for Civic Leadership Harris 52% 41% Trump Harris+11 Sept. 16-25 762RV Virginia Commonwealth University L. Douglas Wilder School of Government and Public Affairs Harris 47% 37% TrumpMoreHarris+11 Sept. 16-25 832A Virginia Commonwealth University L. Douglas Wilder School of Government and Public Affairs Harris 43% 37% TrumpMoreHarris+6 Sept. 22-24 860LV Emerson College The Hill, NexstarHarris 53% 46% Trump Harris+7 Sept. 9-18 899LV Morning Consult Harris 51% 44% Trump Harris+6 AVG. 1 1
Big Blitz Posted October 25 Author Posted October 25 But PA is close lol lol lol This is what happens when you can’t cheat 1
SCBills Posted October 25 Posted October 25 1 minute ago, Joe Ferguson forever said: The firewall number looks very good for Harris. This could be deja vu all over again. https://www.realclearpolling.com/polls/president/general/2012/obama-vs-romney I just posted the updated number as of an hour ago. Best case scenario with outstanding ballot requests is D +505k. Thats right at the firewall number. No guarantee it gets there, and if it does, we wait and see if it’s enough. Cant compare to 2020 with Covid and that’s where Biden had double the mail-in EV lead. And can’t compare to 2022 midterms for a myriad of reasons but also in that Republicans have registers hundreds of thousands of new voters in PA since then. I’ll say that I’m sure Harris folks are breathing a sigh of relief (if the 500k number is an accurate firewall) given how EV has gone everywhere else. 1
Big Blitz Posted October 25 Author Posted October 25 13 minutes ago, Joe Ferguson forever said: The firewall number looks very good for Harris. This could be deja vu all over again. https://www.realclearpolling.com/polls/president/general/2012/obama-vs-romney Virginia is going Harris. Bank on it. Oct. 22-24 725LV Quantus Insights TrendingPoliticsHarris 49% 48% Trump Harris+1 Sept. 28-Oct. 4 800LV Christopher Newport University Wason Center for Civic Leadership Harris 52% 41% Trump Harris+11 Sept. 16-25 762RV Virginia Commonwealth University L. Douglas Wilder School of Government and Public Affairs Harris 47% 37% TrumpMoreHarris+11 Sept. 16-25 832A Virginia Commonwealth University L. Douglas Wilder School of Government and Public Affairs Harris 43% 37% TrumpMoreHarris+6 Sept. 22-24 860LV Emerson College The Hill, NexstarHarris 53% 46% Trump Harris+7 Sept. 9-18 899LV Morning Consult Harris 51% 44% Trump Harris+6 AVG. In other words…… 1 1
SCBills Posted October 25 Posted October 25 Harris desperately needs the black vote turnout to be higher than this. I see some Dems in the comments pointing out the gender disparity, and I get that, but white women favor Trump in polling, and especially down South.
SCBills Posted October 26 Posted October 26 Jon Ralston is predicting, based on the EV data in Nevada and his connections in both campaigns, that Kamala Harris is going to need Independents to break for her by about 4-5% to have a chance at this point.
K D Posted October 26 Posted October 26 3 minutes ago, SCBills said: Jon Ralston is predicting, based on the EV data in Nevada and his connections in both campaigns, that Kamala Harris is going to need Independents to break for her by about 4-5% to have a chance at this point. What's the current polling on independents say? Is that even a possibility?
SCBills Posted October 26 Posted October 26 17 minutes ago, K D said: What's the current polling on independents say? Is that even a possibility? I don’t think Ralston, who leans left, is very bullish on that happening. It’s also a state to state variance. For instance, some of the calculus for the PA firewall some think puts her in a good position at 500k is due to historical trends of indies in PA breaking 70/30 for Dems. I don’t think anyone really has a clue where they’ll land this year though. 1
K D Posted October 26 Posted October 26 12 minutes ago, SCBills said: I don’t think Ralston, who leans left, is very bullish on that happening. It’s also a state to state variance. For instance, some of the calculus for the PA firewall some think puts her in a good position at 500k is due to historical trends of indies in PA breaking 70/30 for Dems. I don’t think anyone really has a clue where they’ll land this year though. Thanks, I appreciate your insight and polling data. I don't know a lot about that world so it's good stuff. From what I saw I thought Trump was doing well with Independents so for Harris to win with them +5 seems hard to do. But we'll see.
SCBills Posted October 26 Posted October 26 (edited) 7 minutes ago, K D said: Thanks, I appreciate your insight and polling data. I don't know a lot about that world so it's good stuff. From what I saw I thought Trump was doing well with Independents so for Harris to win with them +5 seems hard to do. But we'll see. No doubt! All we have is raw data and polls right now. Add those two together and it’s looking really good for Trump, however.. Kamala has consolidated Dem support better than Trump has consolidated R support. However, there are more registered R’s than D’s. On the flip side, Trump is eating away at her support from black men and could potentially win, outright, Latino voters. Trump won independents in 2016, but lost them in 2020. Kamala’s voters are high propensity voters.. unmarried career oriented white women & black women. They vote. Every. Election. Trump wins the popular vote if his supporters vote (men and married women), but he has a coalition counting on low propensity voters… aka Millennial and Gen Z men. Edited October 26 by SCBills 2
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