Tommy Callahan Posted October 20 Posted October 20 15 minutes ago, Joe Ferguson forever said: https://www.reuters.com/world/us/large-bets-election-prediction-market-are-overseas-source-says-2024-10-18/ perhaps the betting markets don’t mean much They have been more accurate than polling. Bring up a good point. Why do results deviate so hard from polling? Been doing it for a decade plus.
Tiberius Posted October 20 Posted October 20 https://www.wsj.com/politics/elections/a-tattooed-union-leader-is-threatening-to-topple-a-republican-senator-in-a-deep-red-state-229ed8b4 LINCOLN, Neb.—Dan Osborn was campaigning for a U.S. Senate seat last week when he jumped onto the back of a white pickup parked outside a labor hall, a buck knife holstered on his hip and a tattoo sleeve running down his right arm. What began as his long-shot bid to unseat two-term Republican Sen. Deb Fischer has become a tight race in deep-red Nebraska, a state that former President Donald Trump won by 19 percentage points in 2020. Between swigs from a green Gatorade water bottle, the 49-year-old former union leader and political independent reminisced to a crowd north of 150 people about his role running the 2021 strike at Kellogg’s Omaha plant. Standing by his side was United Auto Workers President Shawn Fain, who led a historic strike that won auto workers large wage increases last year. “I didn’t see men or women or black or white or Republican or Democrat on the picket line,” Osborn said. “I just saw people that wanted to go to work for a fair wage and some good benefits.” Dan Osborn addressed a crowd in Lincoln, Neb., last weekend. After polls showed the race narrowing, Republicans’ ad spending surged in September. An Oct. 8 memo from the Senate Leadership Fund, a super political-action committee affiliated with Senate GOP leader Mitch McConnell (R., Ky.), said that Nebraska “has emerged as a serious trouble-spot,” and that the group was now polling “to assess whether intervention is necessary to protect the seat.” “It’s, I think, closer than a lot of us thought it was going to be,” said Sen. John Thune (R., S.D.), the Senate GOP whip. There isn’t a Democratic candidate on the ballot for the seat. Osborn has said that he has been a registered independent for as long as he has been able to vote and that if he is elected, he won’t caucus with either party. Democrats have a 51-49 majority in the Senate, but Republicans are favored to win control of the chamber in November.
K D Posted October 20 Posted October 20 57 minutes ago, Joe Ferguson forever said: https://www.reuters.com/world/us/large-bets-election-prediction-market-are-overseas-source-says-2024-10-18/ perhaps the betting markets don’t mean much Yes I saw this. They are trying to explain to their base why the most popular betting site polymarket has Trump with a big lead. However they fail to mention that Trump is ahead on EVERY betting site. If they really think a few people are trying to manipulate every betting site on the planet then why wouldn't they bet against it? If they know it's fake and they have data that shows otherwise wouldn't you see some big bets on Kamala? Easy money if this was true
SCBills Posted October 21 Posted October 21 (edited) Clark County data came in for Nevada and it’s not enough for Dems. They are barely up and even Jon Ralston is sounding the alarm. NC EV data looking good for Trump. GA EV shows black vote percentage dipping in recent days, and the Dems will need higher numbers than they’ve gotten so far. Nothing of note to report from MI/WI/AZ If they can keep PA EV close(ish), Trump should feel extremely confident heading into election week. Edited October 21 by SCBills 1
K D Posted October 22 Posted October 22 6 minutes ago, SCBills said: Half of Las Vegas is now people who have fled California. Hopefully they vote differently than the past and Nevada becomes a Red state going forward
SCBills Posted October 22 Posted October 22 (edited) Dems solid in EV for PA, although it’s starting to tighten. Firewall they say they’re hoping for is 400k/500k depending on who you talk to. Some question if that’s enough, but we shall see. Major unknown will still be if Republicans can turn out their new registrations and low propensity voters. Edited October 22 by SCBills
RiotAct Posted October 22 Posted October 22 On 10/21/2024 at 9:37 AM, Tommy Callahan said: “Look at how much money we spent! Just LOOK AT IT!!!” - Kamala right now, probably. 1 hour ago, SCBills said: I absolutely hate that most states can report on mail-in / early voting results. If that pushes enough people who would’ve otherwise voted for Trump in Pennsylvania to stay home on Election Day because they think he “had it in the bag”, then… sigh. 1
B-Man Posted October 22 Posted October 22 Still has an outside chance, with Trump's Pennsylvania surge.
SCBills Posted October 23 Posted October 23 (edited) Republicans starting to put the firewall EV hope of Democrats at serious risk in PA. Edited October 23 by SCBills 2
RiotAct Posted October 23 Posted October 23 again, it all comes down to Pennsylvania, and Harris will find enough votes in the corners of that state (Erie/Pittsburgh/Philly/Scranton) to win. Book it. 1 1
K D Posted October 24 Posted October 24 I'll be voting early this weekend. They will see more and more Red voters rushing to the polls and it will overwhelm them. They can't steal it if they are down by millions. 1
Big Blitz Posted October 24 Author Posted October 24 17 minutes ago, Biden is Mentally Fit said: Oh my 1 1
K D Posted October 24 Posted October 24 33 minutes ago, Big Blitz said: Oh my The higher this goes the more desperate they will become. You already see it with stories from 31 years ago coming out or the increased Hitler rhetoric. If those don't stick I really hope his secret service team is top notch because they will need to take him out. I really hope we make it through the next 2 weeks 1 1
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