Backintheday544 Posted Tuesday at 06:25 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 06:25 PM 39 minutes ago, ChiGoose said: Senate looks awful for the Dems. Picking out specific polls because they show what you want is not a good way to judge the race. Better to use polling averages. Current breakdown is 51-49 (four independents are aligned with the Dems). Manchin and Tester are almost certainly going to lose, which gives you 51-49 GOP if everything else holds. To prevent it, you need at least one Dem pickup (hoping Harris wins presidency and Walz can be tiebreaker in 50-50 senate) but you probably want two. Of the remaining races, it's not great news according to polling averages: Seats Dems are defending: WV: (Not enough polls for a model but certain GOP pickup) MT: R+5.4 OH: D+2.3 PA: D+2.3 MI: D+3.9 WI: D+4.2 PA: D+4.6 AZ: D+7.4 MD: D+8.6 NV: D+9.2 NM: D+10.4 MN: D+11.3 VA: D+12.9 NY: D+21.1 CA: D+22.6 MA: D+23 CT, DE, HI, ME, NJ, RI, VT, and WA : (Not enough polls for a model but certain Dem retention) Potential Pickups (Currently GOP seats): NE: R+0.6 TX: R+4 FL: R+4.8 MO: R+10 ND: R+23.4 IN, MS, TN, UT, and WY: (Not enough polls for a model but certain GOP retention) I don't know how we can look at that and say it's looking good for the Dems. Especially because we're not sure Osborn would caucus with the Dems if he wins in Nebraska. Even if Harris wins, we're almost certainly looking at GOP senate control. The question is will it be more 51-50 or maybe something like 54-46. If you look at Nebraska the polling is skewed. The last 5 polls per 538: Osborne - +6, -6, +3, +2, +5. The -6 was from right leaning pollster. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChiGoose Posted Tuesday at 06:44 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 06:44 PM 18 minutes ago, Backintheday544 said: If you look at Nebraska the polling is skewed. The last 5 polls per 538: Osborne - +6, -6, +3, +2, +5. The -6 was from right leaning pollster. Unskewing the polls is just hopium. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tommy Callahan Posted Tuesday at 09:31 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 09:31 PM Wonder how the senate and house races are looking. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
B-Man Posted Wednesday at 05:22 PM Share Posted Wednesday at 05:22 PM 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
K D Posted Wednesday at 07:26 PM Share Posted Wednesday at 07:26 PM 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Biden is Mentally Fit Posted Wednesday at 07:36 PM Share Posted Wednesday at 07:36 PM 10 minutes ago, K D said: TICK TOCK? 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Frankish Reich Posted Wednesday at 09:15 PM Share Posted Wednesday at 09:15 PM 🕒 Last update: 2:30 p.m., Wednesday, October 16. It’s been a better day of polling for Harris. But the race is still really close. Harris leads by 2.8 points in our national polling average, and has a 50 percent chance of winning the electoral college. We’re in pure tossup terratory, and Harris’ slight lead last week has disappeared. - Nate Silver's latest update. Folks, it's a 50/50 election, which means turnout is everything, which means we really don't know anything until a day after the election. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
4th&long Posted Wednesday at 09:24 PM Share Posted Wednesday at 09:24 PM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tommy Callahan Posted 17 hours ago Share Posted 17 hours ago 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
K D Posted 16 hours ago Share Posted 16 hours ago 52 minutes ago, Tommy Callahan said: Dems be like... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Governor Posted 13 hours ago Share Posted 13 hours ago 18 hours ago, The Frankish Reich said: 🕒 Last update: 2:30 p.m., Wednesday, October 16. It’s been a better day of polling for Harris. But the race is still really close. Harris leads by 2.8 points in our national polling average, and has a 50 percent chance of winning the electoral college. We’re in pure tossup terratory, and Harris’ slight lead last week has disappeared. - Nate Silver's latest update. Folks, it's a 50/50 election, which means turnout is everything, which means we really don't know anything until a day after the election. NC is gonna flip and that’ll be it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
K D Posted 12 hours ago Share Posted 12 hours ago 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
K D Posted 9 hours ago Share Posted 9 hours ago "the graph is starting to look like Kamala's legs" 😂 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Big Blitz Posted 8 hours ago Author Share Posted 8 hours ago Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
K D Posted 5 hours ago Share Posted 5 hours ago Lots of enthusiasm this time around! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RiotAct Posted 5 hours ago Share Posted 5 hours ago 12 hours ago, Tommy Callahan said: dawg there’s no way Trump is winning all three of MI, WI and PA. You can quote this on election day… but you won’t need to. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
letsgoteam Posted 4 hours ago Share Posted 4 hours ago 1 hour ago, K D said: Lots of enthusiasm this time around! Wow, people were worried that these counties wouldnt be voting because of all the issues surrounding the hurricane. I have spent some time during my college years in Yancey. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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