Backintheday544 Posted October 15 Posted October 15 39 minutes ago, ChiGoose said: Senate looks awful for the Dems. Picking out specific polls because they show what you want is not a good way to judge the race. Better to use polling averages. Current breakdown is 51-49 (four independents are aligned with the Dems). Manchin and Tester are almost certainly going to lose, which gives you 51-49 GOP if everything else holds. To prevent it, you need at least one Dem pickup (hoping Harris wins presidency and Walz can be tiebreaker in 50-50 senate) but you probably want two. Of the remaining races, it's not great news according to polling averages: Seats Dems are defending: WV: (Not enough polls for a model but certain GOP pickup) MT: R+5.4 OH: D+2.3 PA: D+2.3 MI: D+3.9 WI: D+4.2 PA: D+4.6 AZ: D+7.4 MD: D+8.6 NV: D+9.2 NM: D+10.4 MN: D+11.3 VA: D+12.9 NY: D+21.1 CA: D+22.6 MA: D+23 CT, DE, HI, ME, NJ, RI, VT, and WA : (Not enough polls for a model but certain Dem retention) Potential Pickups (Currently GOP seats): NE: R+0.6 TX: R+4 FL: R+4.8 MO: R+10 ND: R+23.4 IN, MS, TN, UT, and WY: (Not enough polls for a model but certain GOP retention) I don't know how we can look at that and say it's looking good for the Dems. Especially because we're not sure Osborn would caucus with the Dems if he wins in Nebraska. Even if Harris wins, we're almost certainly looking at GOP senate control. The question is will it be more 51-50 or maybe something like 54-46. If you look at Nebraska the polling is skewed. The last 5 polls per 538: Osborne - +6, -6, +3, +2, +5. The -6 was from right leaning pollster.
ChiGoose Posted October 15 Posted October 15 18 minutes ago, Backintheday544 said: If you look at Nebraska the polling is skewed. The last 5 polls per 538: Osborne - +6, -6, +3, +2, +5. The -6 was from right leaning pollster. Unskewing the polls is just hopium.
Tommy Callahan Posted October 15 Posted October 15 Wonder how the senate and house races are looking. 1
The Frankish Reich Posted October 16 Posted October 16 🕒 Last update: 2:30 p.m., Wednesday, October 16. It’s been a better day of polling for Harris. But the race is still really close. Harris leads by 2.8 points in our national polling average, and has a 50 percent chance of winning the electoral college. We’re in pure tossup terratory, and Harris’ slight lead last week has disappeared. - Nate Silver's latest update. Folks, it's a 50/50 election, which means turnout is everything, which means we really don't know anything until a day after the election.
Governor Posted October 17 Posted October 17 18 hours ago, The Frankish Reich said: 🕒 Last update: 2:30 p.m., Wednesday, October 16. It’s been a better day of polling for Harris. But the race is still really close. Harris leads by 2.8 points in our national polling average, and has a 50 percent chance of winning the electoral college. We’re in pure tossup terratory, and Harris’ slight lead last week has disappeared. - Nate Silver's latest update. Folks, it's a 50/50 election, which means turnout is everything, which means we really don't know anything until a day after the election. NC is gonna flip and that’ll be it.
RiotAct Posted October 18 Posted October 18 12 hours ago, Tommy Callahan said: dawg there’s no way Trump is winning all three of MI, WI and PA. You can quote this on election day… but you won’t need to.
letsgoteam Posted October 18 Posted October 18 1 hour ago, K D said: Lots of enthusiasm this time around! Wow, people were worried that these counties wouldnt be voting because of all the issues surrounding the hurricane. I have spent some time during my college years in Yancey. 3
Joe Ferguson forever Posted October 20 Posted October 20 https://www.reuters.com/world/us/large-bets-election-prediction-market-are-overseas-source-says-2024-10-18/ perhaps the betting markets don’t mean much 1
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