SCBills Posted September 26 Posted September 26 Dems stay not being able to understand how big of an issue illegal immigration is for Hispanics here legally. 2
B-Man Posted September 26 Posted September 26 A democrat, taking money they aren't qualified for ? Not really a 'scandal' Will This Scandal in Maryland Cost Democrats Another Senate Seat? Matt Margolis | 3:32 PM on September 25, 2024 Republicans are widely favored to flip the Senate this November, and the more seats they secure, the stronger their prospects are for maintaining a GOP majority in the years ahead. One race that has unexpectedly emerged on the radar is the Senate contest in Maryland, where former Gov. Larry Hogan, a Republican, is proving surprisingly competitive in several polls. While it's widely accepted that Democrats will carry the state in the presidential election, there has been persistent optimism that Republicans could capture this Senate seat despite some polls showing Angela Alsobrooks, Hogan's Democrat opponent, with a healthy lead. A new tax scandal involving Alsobrooks might just tip the scale in Hogan's favor. According to CNN, Alsobrooks "improperly took advantage of tax breaks she did not qualify for, including one meant for low-income senior citizens, saving thousands of dollars in taxes on two properties she owned in Washington, DC, and in Maryland." A CNN review of property records and tax bills shows that for both properties, Alsobrooks claimed for more than a decade a homestead tax exemption that is meant to apply only to someone’s primary residence, violating state and local tax relief requirements. She also improperly claimed a senior citizens’ tax break on her Washington property, cutting the tax bill in half. Alsobrooks, 53, never qualified for that tax break, but her grandparents, who owned the property before her, likely did. A senior adviser for Alsobrooks told CNN that she was unaware of the problem and that her attorneys are working with both Washington and Prince George’s County, Maryland, to resolve the issue. Alsobrooks saved nearly $14,000 in property taxes between 2005 and 2017 by using tax exemptions designed for primary residents, low-income households, and senior citizens on her northeast Washington property. However, public records indicate she did not actually reside in Washington during that period, as she has been registered to vote in Prince George’s County since 1995. According to CNN, "A senior adviser for Alsobrooks told CNN that she was unaware of the problem and that her attorneys are working with both Washington and Prince George’s County, Maryland, to resolve the issue." "How does Alsobrooks explain running a taxpayer-funded real estate finance agency while failing to do basic due diligence on her own real estate taxes?" the Hogan campaign asked. https://pjmedia.com/matt-margolis/2024/09/25/democrat-scandal-in-maryland-could-rock-senate-race-n4932833#google_vignette .
SCBills Posted September 26 Posted September 26 4 hours ago, Backintheday544 said: Update on the aggregates. With Nebraska staying split ballot, MI, PA, and WI are moving to lean Dem, Harris basically has 270 locked up. Forecast tracker (Sep 26) NameChance% 13 Keys ⭐️🔵Harris100 Primary Model🔵Harris75 RacetotheWH🔵Harris58.6 538🔵Harris55 The Economist🔵Harris Split Ticket🔵Harris62 JHK🔵Harris56 DDHQ/The Hill🔵Harris55 CNanalysis🔵Harris53.5 Votehub🔵Harris RCP🔵Harris 270towin🔵Harris Thomas Miller🔵Harris Princeton🔵Harris 24Cast🔵Harris74 Solid Purple🔵Harris57 338Canada🔵Harris57 David’s Model🔵Harris53.9 Nate Silver🔵Harris55.2 ⭐️ forecaster has the best track record Dems are worried they’re going to lose Montana/Tester, and potentially Ohio/Brown, with Maryland being way too iffy for their comfort. Spending money in FL & TX seems desperate, but Dems do have way more money at their disposal than R’s. 2
Backintheday544 Posted October 7 Posted October 7 Great PA news Need 350,000 lead in EV to win. Current projection is 480,000
Backintheday544 Posted October 7 Posted October 7 4 hours ago, B-Man said: missing some key parts from the poll: And more Americans who watched the VP debate or followed news coverage afterward say the event made them think better (33%) rather than worse (26%) of Harris; fewer said the debate made them think better (26%) rather than worse (30%) of Trump But the number of U.S. adults who now view Vance favorably (37%, up from 31% in September) is still significantly lower than the number who view Walz favorably (43%, up from 39%) — and the number who view Vance unfavorably (48%) is still significantly higher than the corresponding number for Walz (40%)
Backintheday544 Posted October 8 Posted October 8 12 hours ago, Big Blitz said: Poll: #CTESPN let keep digging in on those tweets Dems still with a significant advantage in registrations and that’s not counting all the Dems who registered as Republicans that yall righties said was happening like crazy in PA after the assassination attempt. 1
Backintheday544 Posted October 8 Posted October 8 43 minutes ago, Big Blitz said: Uh oh You missed these
Backintheday544 Posted October 15 Posted October 15 Internal Osborne poll has him up 6 in the NE Senate over the Republican!!!!! https://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=ea77aa76-6f1a-4dc4-a604-ed8047f4b1df That and the internal Republican poll showing Cruz up 1 within the margin of error, the Senates looking good for Dems. 1
The Frankish Reich Posted October 15 Posted October 15 1 hour ago, Backintheday544 said: Internal Osborne poll has him up 6 in the NE Senate over the Republican!!!!! https://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=ea77aa76-6f1a-4dc4-a604-ed8047f4b1df That and the internal Republican poll showing Cruz up 1 within the margin of error, the Senates looking good for Dems. I hate to say it, but the Senate is looking bleak for the Dems. But I do agree that Ted Cruz is more than a little nervous - he just called out McConnell for not spending money on his race. In other words, just a little too close for comfort. I think Cruz is more concerned about winning by an embarrassingly slim margin than he is about actually losing.
ChiGoose Posted October 15 Posted October 15 3 hours ago, Backintheday544 said: Internal Osborne poll has him up 6 in the NE Senate over the Republican!!!!! https://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=ea77aa76-6f1a-4dc4-a604-ed8047f4b1df That and the internal Republican poll showing Cruz up 1 within the margin of error, the Senates looking good for Dems. Senate looks awful for the Dems. Picking out specific polls because they show what you want is not a good way to judge the race. Better to use polling averages. Current breakdown is 51-49 (four independents are aligned with the Dems). Manchin and Tester are almost certainly going to lose, which gives you 51-49 GOP if everything else holds. To prevent it, you need at least one Dem pickup (hoping Harris wins presidency and Walz can be tiebreaker in 50-50 senate) but you probably want two. Of the remaining races, it's not great news according to polling averages: Seats Dems are defending: WV: (Not enough polls for a model but certain GOP pickup) MT: R+5.4 OH: D+2.3 PA: D+2.3 MI: D+3.9 WI: D+4.2 PA: D+4.6 AZ: D+7.4 MD: D+8.6 NV: D+9.2 NM: D+10.4 MN: D+11.3 VA: D+12.9 NY: D+21.1 CA: D+22.6 MA: D+23 CT, DE, HI, ME, NJ, RI, VT, and WA : (Not enough polls for a model but certain Dem retention) Potential Pickups (Currently GOP seats): NE: R+0.6 TX: R+4 FL: R+4.8 MO: R+10 ND: R+23.4 IN, MS, TN, UT, and WY: (Not enough polls for a model but certain GOP retention) I don't know how we can look at that and say it's looking good for the Dems. Especially because we're not sure Osborn would caucus with the Dems if he wins in Nebraska. Even if Harris wins, we're almost certainly looking at GOP senate control. The question is will it be more 51-50 or maybe something like 54-46.
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