The Frankish Reich Posted August 29 Posted August 29 Those post-DNC polls are coming out. And they tell us exactly what we expected. 1
SCBills Posted August 29 Posted August 29 2 hours ago, The Frankish Reich said: Those post-DNC polls are coming out. And they tell us exactly what we expected. Which is? Because all the polling seems stagnant now with the battleground states all toss-ups. I honestly don’t know what anyone expected .. it seems the convention bounce was probably already baked in by the candidate swap bounce and now it’s a tie ball game after weeks of the best coverage any candidate has ever received. 3
The Frankish Reich Posted August 29 Posted August 29 5 minutes ago, SCBills said: Which is? Because all the polling seems stagnant now with the battleground states all toss-ups. I honestly don’t know what anyone expected .. it seems the convention bounce was probably already baked in by the candidate swap bounce and now it’s a tie ball game after weeks of the best coverage any candidate has ever received. Hey, maybe I'm giving myself a pat on the back. The royal "we." 😀 I had said that I expect the polls to settle in with Harris with a 3 or 4 point lead nationally, which is exactly what we're seeing. 1
SCBills Posted August 29 Posted August 29 1 minute ago, The Frankish Reich said: Hey, maybe I'm giving myself a pat on the back. The royal "we." 😀 I had said that I expect the polls to settle in with Harris with a 3 or 4 point lead nationally, which is exactly what we're seeing. It’s an interesting dynamic. Trump is about as well defined a candidate as we’ve ever seen. Nothing can really harm him.. also, not much can help him. Kamala Harris is an empty suit who just benefitted from a month of glowing coverage, ending with the DNC. Nobody really knows who she is, but at the same time.. maybe that doesn’t even matter. Will be interesting to see if Trump can move the needle nationally.. which probably would have more to do with Kamala Harris becoming more defined than anything Trump himself does to lift his favorables. Either way.. the biggest surprise for me is the very real outcome that could be Kamala winning GA/NC and Trump winning PA & MI or WI. Kemp is starting to do some heavy lifting for Trump in Georgia, headlining a fundraiser for him this weekend, so if I had to guess, a Trump/Kemp rally in Georgia could happen .. and might “need” to happen if Harris continues to make inroads in the peach state. In reality.. it should’ve never gotten to this point .. Trump left himself open with that unhinged attack on Kemp in Atlanta and ever since then, Kamala has closed the gap. 2
Backintheday544 Posted August 29 Posted August 29 44 minutes ago, SCBills said: It’s an interesting dynamic. Trump is about as well defined a candidate as we’ve ever seen. Nothing can really harm him.. also, not much can help him. Kamala Harris is an empty suit who just benefitted from a month of glowing coverage, ending with the DNC. Nobody really knows who she is, but at the same time.. maybe that doesn’t even matter. Will be interesting to see if Trump can move the needle nationally.. which probably would have more to do with Kamala Harris becoming more defined than anything Trump himself does to lift his favorables. Either way.. the biggest surprise for me is the very real outcome that could be Kamala winning GA/NC and Trump winning PA & MI or WI. Kemp is starting to do some heavy lifting for Trump in Georgia, headlining a fundraiser for him this weekend, so if I had to guess, a Trump/Kemp rally in Georgia could happen .. and might “need” to happen if Harris continues to make inroads in the peach state. In reality.. it should’ve never gotten to this point .. Trump left himself open with that unhinged attack on Kemp in Atlanta and ever since then, Kamala has closed the gap. Nate Silver's aggregation has Harris +2 nationally post convention: https://www.natesilver.net/p/nate-silver-2024-president-election-polls-model I think looking at all the polls and factoring in MOE, Harris is probably +3,+4 nationally. I'd say it as +1/+2 before the DNC if we're being realistic. Prior elections Dems needed a +4 to win. (it's crazy 20 year olds today have never seen a Republicans President candidate win the popular vote). But I think some of the polling is seeing shifts. Like the latest CA poll for Harris was +20. So if Harris is polling nationally +3 or +4 and only +20 in CA, that means the votes are coming from other states. Biden got 46 percent in TX in 2020 and right now the polling is around 44% for Harris (CA and TX are the two most populous Dem states.
SCBills Posted August 29 Posted August 29 2 minutes ago, Backintheday544 said: Nate Silver's aggregation has Harris +2 nationally post convention: https://www.natesilver.net/p/nate-silver-2024-president-election-polls-model I think looking at all the polls and factoring in MOE, Harris is probably +3,+4 nationally. I'd say it as +1/+2 before the DNC if we're being realistic. Prior elections Dems needed a +4 to win. (it's crazy 20 year olds today have never seen a Republicans President candidate win the popular vote). But I think some of the polling is seeing shifts. Like the latest CA poll for Harris was +20. So if Harris is polling nationally +3 or +4 and only +20 in CA, that means the votes are coming from other states. Biden got 46 percent in TX in 2020 and right now the polling is around 44% for Harris (CA and TX are the two most populous Dem states. Theres definitely a realignment going on. Reliably red states in AZ, GA & NC now battlegrounds. Same for the “Blue Wall” of PA, MI & WI. Florida and Ohio becoming reliably red, while Colorado and Minnesota move further blue. Arizona GOP voter registration advantage has doubled recently, but in Fox News polling, Harris is up 8 point amongst those who have moved there in the last 10 years. Unmarried women becoming an absolute monster of a voting group for Dems, which is helping to build Dem vote w/ minorities in Georgia (Atlanta), NC (Charlotte/Raleigh) and AZ (Phoenix) while the white working class moves to the right in the Rust Belt. 1
Backintheday544 Posted August 29 Posted August 29 30 minutes ago, SCBills said: Theres definitely a realignment going on. Reliably red states in AZ, GA & NC now battlegrounds. Same for the “Blue Wall” of PA, MI & WI. Florida and Ohio becoming reliably red, while Colorado and Minnesota move further blue. Arizona GOP voter registration advantage has doubled recently, but in Fox News polling, Harris is up 8 point amongst those who have moved there in the last 10 years. Unmarried women becoming an absolute monster of a voting group for Dems, which is helping to build Dem vote w/ minorities in Georgia (Atlanta), NC (Charlotte/Raleigh) and AZ (Phoenix) while the white working class moves to the right in the Rust Belt. FL is interesting now. Chris Bouzy who did pretty good at the mid-term projections is saying FL will flip. Main things he's looking at is abortion and Rick Scott on the ballot, change in demographics. 1
The Frankish Reich Posted August 29 Posted August 29 (edited) 36 minutes ago, SCBills said: Theres definitely a realignment going on. Reliably red states in AZ, GA & NC now battlegrounds. Same for the “Blue Wall” of PA, MI & WI. Florida and Ohio becoming reliably red, while Colorado and Minnesota move further blue. Arizona GOP voter registration advantage has doubled recently, but in Fox News polling, Harris is up 8 point amongst those who have moved there in the last 10 years. Unmarried women becoming an absolute monster of a voting group for Dems, which is helping to build Dem vote w/ minorities in Georgia (Atlanta), NC (Charlotte/Raleigh) and AZ (Phoenix) while the white working class moves to the right in the Rust Belt. Agreed. I can't see TX or FL flipping. That would just be too drastic a change. But I will admit the abortion ballot measure in Florida is likely to change the demographics of the turnout in favor of women, and particularly younger/unmarried women. We've seen that effect in other states. So it is conceivable. My only prediction is that at least one state will surprise us in November. I think you definitely are on to something in NC. I'll also note that horrible down ballot candidates never help, and we see Kari Lake running about 5 points weaker than Trump in AZ. Edited August 29 by The Frankish Reich
Backintheday544 Posted August 29 Posted August 29 He went on a tour in 2022 when he was saying the red wave was crap and predicted most of the races accurately. 1
SCBills Posted August 29 Posted August 29 (edited) Nate Silver’s model has Trump now in the lead. Edited August 29 by SCBills
Backintheday544 Posted August 29 Posted August 29 24 minutes ago, SCBills said: I can't find how they weighed it (https://poll.qu.edu/poll-release?releaseid=3903). But seems weird if it's weighted with R-D even and rest I, that is Kamala is +4 on party switches (i.e. Trump lost 5% of R, Harris lost 1 percent of D) and that I's are evenly split that Harris is just a +2.
RiotAct Posted August 30 Posted August 30 On 8/29/2024 at 11:16 AM, SCBills said: Which is? Because all the polling seems stagnant now with the battleground states all toss-ups. I honestly don’t know what anyone expected .. it seems the convention bounce was probably already baked in by the candidate swap bounce and now it’s a tie ball game after weeks of the best coverage any candidate has ever received. 2 hours ago, Big Blitz said: Silver has a post DNC Bounce - For Trump Trump 60% chance of winning Arizona? I’ll have what he’s smoking…
Big Blitz Posted August 30 Author Posted August 30 1 hour ago, Backintheday544 said: Point out the bounce! Another Harris at 45 poll. Good night.
Backintheday544 Posted August 31 Posted August 31 Trafalgar is coming out with some swing state polls today apparently. Harris even or down +2 is good for them. Trafalgar got their Republican butts handed to them in 2022: "Trafalgar's polling numbers were considerably off in the 2022 United States midterm elections.[18] Trafalgar's polls incorrectly suggested that Republican candidates such as Mehmet Oz, Herschel Walker, Kari Lake, Tudor Dixon, Adam Laxalt, Blake Masters, Christine Drazan, and Tim Michels would all win.[19] Their polls also suggested that Republican candidates such as Don Bolduc, Lee Zeldin, Mark Ronchetti, Doug Mastriano, Scott Jensen, Heidi Ganahl, Joe O'Dea, and Tiffany Smiley, were within striking distance, but some lost in landslides." This isn't Trafalgar Law we're talking about, and One Piece of advice would be to not give them much weight.
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