Big Blitz Posted September 13 Author Share Posted September 13 He’s got a better chance to win the popular vote then she does to win the election I could see the vote being 49-48 Trump more than her getting the fake 51 Biden got. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Big Blitz Posted September 14 Author Share Posted September 14 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Big Blitz Posted September 14 Author Share Posted September 14 Trump has increased his lead since July per the most accurate pollster in 2020 - but we knew this bc America is not full of gullible losers the Democrats think they are. Taylor Swift needs to do some concerts and invite Harris to them where she can read a Trump speech from a teleprompter 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
B-Man Posted Monday at 01:54 PM Share Posted Monday at 01:54 PM (edited) Keep pretending that Harris is ahead. Trump Leads Harris in Key Sun Belt Battleground States, New Polls Find New polls published Monday by the New York Times and Siena College show Donald Trump has gained a lead over Kamala Harris in Arizona and remains ahead in Georgia and North Carolina, three crucial battleground states that could determine the outcome of the election. The Times/Siena polls, which surveyed 2,077 likely voters in the Sun Belt states, were conducted from Sept. 17 to Sept. 21 and are the first since the presidential debate on Sept. 10. Times/Siena is ranked as the most reputable poll by FiveThirtyEight. Arizona The poll shows Trump leading Harris 50% to 45% among likely voters, which is outside the survey’s margin of error of 4.4 percentage points for the state. The results show a big shift from August to September, when Harris led by five percentage points in the August Times/Siena poll, which was outside the margin of error of 4.4 percentage points. Georgia The poll shows Trump leading Harris 49% to 45% among likely voters, which is within the 4.6 percentage point margin of error for the state. Trump has consistently led Harris in Georgia in several high quality polls, including in a poll conducted by the University of Georgia last week, which showed him ahead by three percentage points, though that was just within the poll’s margin of error of 3.1 percentage points. North Carolina The poll shows Trump leading Harris by 49% to 45% among likely voters, which is within the 4.2 percentage point margin of error for the state. The previous poll conducted in mid-August by Times/Siena showed Harris in the lead by three percentage points, which also fell within the poll’s margin of error of 4.2 percentage points among likely voters. https://time.com/7023360/trump-leads-harris-arizona-georgia-north-carolina/ ADDED: NYT agrees. https://www.nytimes.com/2024/09/23/us/politics/times-siena-polls-arizona-georgia-north-carolina.html . . Edited Monday at 02:19 PM by B-Man Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
B-Man Posted Monday at 02:33 PM Share Posted Monday at 02:33 PM Walkaway. Michigan Farm Bureau Endorses Mike Rogers over Democrat Elissa Slotkin in Pivotal Senate Race by Sean Moran The Michigan Farm Bureau’s AgriPAC endorsed former Rep. Mike Rogers (R-MI) over Rep. Elissa Slotkin (D-MI) in the battle for the open Michigan Senate race. The Michigan Farm Bureau has not endorsed a Republican for the Senate seat since 2006, having backed the retiring Sen. Debbie Stabenow (D-MI) in her 2012 and 2018 Senate races. https://www.foxnews.com/politics/pretty-damn-significant-slotkin-suffers-blow-michigan-farm-bureau-jilts-dems-endorse-gop-candidate . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Backintheday544 Posted Monday at 02:45 PM Share Posted Monday at 02:45 PM 50 minutes ago, B-Man said: Keep pretending that Harris is ahead. Trump Leads Harris in Key Sun Belt Battleground States, New Polls Find New polls published Monday by the New York Times and Siena College show Donald Trump has gained a lead over Kamala Harris in Arizona and remains ahead in Georgia and North Carolina, three crucial battleground states that could determine the outcome of the election. The Times/Siena polls, which surveyed 2,077 likely voters in the Sun Belt states, were conducted from Sept. 17 to Sept. 21 and are the first since the presidential debate on Sept. 10. Times/Siena is ranked as the most reputable poll by FiveThirtyEight. Arizona The poll shows Trump leading Harris 50% to 45% among likely voters, which is outside the survey’s margin of error of 4.4 percentage points for the state. The results show a big shift from August to September, when Harris led by five percentage points in the August Times/Siena poll, which was outside the margin of error of 4.4 percentage points. Georgia The poll shows Trump leading Harris 49% to 45% among likely voters, which is within the 4.6 percentage point margin of error for the state. Trump has consistently led Harris in Georgia in several high quality polls, including in a poll conducted by the University of Georgia last week, which showed him ahead by three percentage points, though that was just within the poll’s margin of error of 3.1 percentage points. North Carolina The poll shows Trump leading Harris by 49% to 45% among likely voters, which is within the 4.2 percentage point margin of error for the state. The previous poll conducted in mid-August by Times/Siena showed Harris in the lead by three percentage points, which also fell within the poll’s margin of error of 4.2 percentage points among likely voters. https://time.com/7023360/trump-leads-harris-arizona-georgia-north-carolina/ ADDED: NYT agrees. https://www.nytimes.com/2024/09/23/us/politics/times-siena-polls-arizona-georgia-north-carolina.html . . lol when you shift the sample +11 for Trump it’s not odd you get a +10 change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Big Blitz Posted Monday at 03:17 PM Author Share Posted Monday at 03:17 PM 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
B-Man Posted Monday at 05:39 PM Share Posted Monday at 05:39 PM Cope Flows Like Milk and Honey After Trump Sees Huge Gains in Three Key Battleground States Donald Trump has rebounded in three key swing states, according to the latest polling conducted by The New York Times and Siena. The former president now leads by five points in Arizona, four in Georgia, and two in North Carolina. {snip} As I showed above, the claim that "NYT polling" has been "3-4 pts more R" is not true. Their polling favored Harris during its last round. MSNBC's "Morning Joe" also tried to dismiss the results on Monday, claiming that Times/Siena showed Mitt Romney was going to blow out Barack Obama. The problem? There was no Times/Siena poll in 2012. Going back to my first point, you do not analyze polls by dismissing those that go against your narratives. The moment you start doing that, you are just guessing at who may or may not have a polling error in the current cycle. Don't like the result of a survey? Throw it in the average, but saying "but Morning Consult" isn't an argument. Times/Siena is also Nate Silver's top-rated pollster. https://redstate.com/bonchie/2024/09/23/cope-flows-after-trump-sees-huge-gains-in-three-key-battleground-states-n2179653 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
B-Man Posted Monday at 07:49 PM Share Posted Monday at 07:49 PM Just a couple of reminders as you read this post and poll: Kamala Harris MUST WIN Arizona. This Arizona poll comes from the New York Times. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Backintheday544 Posted Monday at 09:08 PM Share Posted Monday at 09:08 PM (edited) 1 hour ago, B-Man said: Just a couple of reminders as you read this post and poll: Kamala Harris MUST WIN Arizona. This Arizona poll comes from the New York Times. Just a couple of reminders as you read this post. B-Man doesn’t know math. The same pollster has Harris +4 in PA, +6 in WI. That would give Harris 270 votes without AZ. 270 are all that’s needed. Edited Monday at 09:09 PM by Backintheday544 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gregg Posted Tuesday at 01:35 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 01:35 PM 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Big Blitz Posted Wednesday at 12:56 AM Author Share Posted Wednesday at 12:56 AM Get everyone you know out! Yep Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Big Blitz Posted Wednesday at 01:15 AM Author Share Posted Wednesday at 01:15 AM I’m telling you……. We’re the new turnout party - with the youth. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RiotAct Posted Wednesday at 01:27 AM Share Posted Wednesday at 01:27 AM This is what I keep coming up with: 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Big Blitz Posted Wednesday at 03:34 PM Author Share Posted Wednesday at 03:34 PM 14 hours ago, Big Blitz said: We’re the new turnout party - with the youth. The Histories will say it was Covid Lockdowns that woke the kids up to what tyranny is. School children crying over their state issued laptops by the millions not understanding anything their masked up teachers were doing over weeks that turned to months and over a year plus. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Big Blitz Posted Wednesday at 03:40 PM Author Share Posted Wednesday at 03:40 PM 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SCBills Posted Wednesday at 04:56 PM Share Posted Wednesday at 04:56 PM (edited) 1 hour ago, Big Blitz said: The Histories will say it was Covid Lockdowns that woke the kids up to what tyranny is. School children crying over their state issued laptops by the millions not understanding anything their masked up teachers were doing over weeks that turned to months and over a year plus. Just came here to post this.. Ive questioned some of the recent polling coming out, most of which looks really good for Trump, because a lot of it has him somewhat competitive with young people. But then you see polls like this put out by different universities and realize that he might just be somewhat competitive. The white male youth vote is turning into a massive issue for Democrats. White males in general.. but to struggle with the under 30 age group of white men as well is not something they likely counted on having to counter. Edited Wednesday at 04:57 PM by SCBills 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Joe Ferguson forever Posted Wednesday at 05:36 PM Share Posted Wednesday at 05:36 PM 36 minutes ago, SCBills said: Just came here to post this.. Ive questioned some of the recent polling coming out, most of which looks really good for Trump, because a lot of it has him somewhat competitive with young people. But then you see polls like this put out by different universities and realize that he might just be somewhat competitive. The white male youth vote is turning into a massive issue for Democrats. White males in general.. but to struggle with the under 30 age group of white men as well is not something they likely counted on having to counter. 48 point gender gap in recent NYT poll for 18-29 yo in battleground states. much depends on which group is more motivated to vote. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Big Blitz Posted yesterday at 12:19 AM Author Share Posted yesterday at 12:19 AM 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Backintheday544 Posted yesterday at 12:11 PM Share Posted yesterday at 12:11 PM Update on the aggregates. With Nebraska staying split ballot, MI, PA, and WI are moving to lean Dem, Harris basically has 270 locked up. Forecast tracker (Sep 26) NameChance% 13 Keys ⭐️🔵Harris100 Primary Model🔵Harris75 RacetotheWH🔵Harris58.6 538🔵Harris55 The Economist🔵Harris Split Ticket🔵Harris62 JHK🔵Harris56 DDHQ/The Hill🔵Harris55 CNanalysis🔵Harris53.5 Votehub🔵Harris RCP🔵Harris 270towin🔵Harris Thomas Miller🔵Harris Princeton🔵Harris 24Cast🔵Harris74 Solid Purple🔵Harris57 338Canada🔵Harris57 David’s Model🔵Harris53.9 Nate Silver🔵Harris55.2 ⭐️ forecaster has the best track record Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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