Backintheday544 Posted August 31 Share Posted August 31 Trafalgar is coming out with some swing state polls today apparently. Harris even or down +2 is good for them. Trafalgar got their Republican butts handed to them in 2022: "Trafalgar's polling numbers were considerably off in the 2022 United States midterm elections.[18] Trafalgar's polls incorrectly suggested that Republican candidates such as Mehmet Oz, Herschel Walker, Kari Lake, Tudor Dixon, Adam Laxalt, Blake Masters, Christine Drazan, and Tim Michels would all win.[19] Their polls also suggested that Republican candidates such as Don Bolduc, Lee Zeldin, Mark Ronchetti, Doug Mastriano, Scott Jensen, Heidi Ganahl, Joe O'Dea, and Tiffany Smiley, were within striking distance, but some lost in landslides." This isn't Trafalgar Law we're talking about, and One Piece of advice would be to not give them much weight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doc Posted August 31 Share Posted August 31 10 hours ago, Big Blitz said: The honeymoon is over. And it's only going to get worse for her. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Big Blitz Posted August 31 Author Share Posted August 31 There was never any Hoementum. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BillsFanNC Posted August 31 Share Posted August 31 All within margin of error and therefore all completely riggable. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doc Posted August 31 Share Posted August 31 (edited) The polls were never accurate. Just like the reporting that Biden was compos mentis. Edited August 31 by Doc 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Big Blitz Posted August 31 Author Share Posted August 31 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Big Blitz Posted August 31 Author Share Posted August 31 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Backintheday544 Posted August 31 Share Posted August 31 1 hour ago, BillsFanNC said: All within margin of error and therefore all completely riggable. Hell yea!!! Harris in the lead!!! For reference, Trafalgar’s final poll in 2022 for PA Senate was Oz +2 and it ended up being Fetterman +5. Their final poll in 2022 for WI Senate was Johnson +3 and it ended up being Johnson +1. MI didn’t have a Senate election since 2020. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Backintheday544 Posted August 31 Share Posted August 31 If we want to look at how Trafalgar did state wide in 2020: Before the 2020 United States presidential election, Trafalgar Group said that Trump would win the election, estimating that he would win Arizona, Florida, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, and Pennsylvania. Joe Biden won the election with 306 electoral votes and succeeded in winning Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, and Pennsylvania. As to a number of swing states, Trafalgar's latest 2020 general election polls showed Trump winning Arizona by 3 points, Georgia by 4 points, Michigan by 3 points, Nevada by 1 point, and Pennsylvania by 2 points. However, Biden won Arizona by less than 1 point, Georgia by less than 1 point, Michigan by nearly 3 points, Nevada by approximately 2.5 points, and Pennsylvania by approximately 2 points. Using the Right's unskewing of polls here So Michigan they were off by 6. That means Harris up 6. PA they were off 4, so Harris up 2. AZ they were off 4, so Harris up 3 GA off 5, so Harris up 5. NV off 3.5, so Harris up 2.5 That's more in line with the other polls we're seeing as well. Great results today!!! Keep it going Harris Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Big Blitz Posted August 31 Author Share Posted August 31 Just now, Backintheday544 said: If we want to look at how Trafalgar did state wide in 2020: Before the 2020 United States presidential election, Trafalgar Group said that Trump would win the election, estimating that he would win Arizona, Florida, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, and Pennsylvania. Joe Biden won the election with 306 electoral votes and succeeded in winning Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, and Pennsylvania. As to a number of swing states, Trafalgar's latest 2020 general election polls showed Trump winning Arizona by 3 points, Georgia by 4 points, Michigan by 3 points, Nevada by 1 point, and Pennsylvania by 2 points. However, Biden won Arizona by less than 1 point, Georgia by less than 1 point, Michigan by nearly 3 points, Nevada by approximately 2.5 points, and Pennsylvania by approximately 2 points. Using the Right's unskewing of polls here So Michigan they were off by 6. That means Harris up 6. PA they were off 4, so Harris up 2. AZ they were off 4, so Harris up 3 GA off 5, so Harris up 5. NV off 3.5, so Harris up 2.5 That's more in line with the other polls we're seeing as well. Great results today!!! Keep it going Harris RIP. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Backintheday544 Posted August 31 Share Posted August 31 (edited) 2 minutes ago, Big Blitz said: RIP. Lol when you can actually tell me what weighing a poll means, I'll take what you post seriously. Until then - you're just a right wing idiot that does what the Republicans tell you to do and follow it blindly. Timely post by Nate Silver on the subject: https://www.natesilver.net/p/sbsq-12-will-the-polls-lowball-trump Edited August 31 by Backintheday544 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Big Blitz Posted August 31 Author Share Posted August 31 (edited) 7 minutes ago, Backintheday544 said: Lol when you can actually tell me what weighing a poll means, I'll take what you post seriously. Until then - you're just a right wing idiot that does what the Republicans tell you to do and follow it blindly. Thats called the aggregate number. Not a poll. In total. The polls say…. 7 minutes ago, Backintheday544 said: Lol when you can actually tell me what weighing a poll means, I'll take what you post seriously. Until then - you're just a right wing idiot that does what the Republicans tell you to do and follow it blindly. Timely post by Nate Silver on the subject: https://www.natesilver.net/p/sbsq-12-will-the-polls-lowball-trump Wrong poll. Edited August 31 by Big Blitz Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Backintheday544 Posted August 31 Share Posted August 31 3 minutes ago, Big Blitz said: Thats called the aggregate number. Not a poll. In total. The polls say…. You think in a poll a +7 Dem sample where Kamala is +2 means that it took a +7 Dem sample just to get a +2 Harris. You didn't know the polls are weighted to match the expected voting. That's what I'm talking about. As to your other post and why it's asinine, is you don't know if there will be a systematic error in the polling that will be the same as 2016 or 2020. In fact, we can look at 2022 and say the pollsters have probably already over compensated for Dems since all the polls then called for a Red Wave. So, in 2022, we saw a clear systematic error favoring Republicans. Looking at any of the poll data, you can use Rasmussen and Trafalgar if you want, what from their methodology points to correcting the 2022 errors? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Backintheday544 Posted August 31 Share Posted August 31 Interesting poll out of NE. Senate is clearly in play. I think they scary thing here for Rs is so many left wing initiatives getting high numbers. SurveyUSA/Split Ticket Nebraska Donald Trump: 54% Kamala Harris: 37% NESen Deb Fischer (R): 39% Dan Osborn (I): 38% (Special) Pete Ricketts (R): 50% Preston Love (D): 33% NE02 results: Donald Trump: 42% Kamala Harris: 47% Don Bacon (R): 40% Tony Vargas (D): 46% Initiatives Right to an abortion until fetal viability Yes: 45% No: 35% Undecided: 21% Prohibit abortion after 1st trimester, with exceptions Yes: 56% No: 29% Undecided: 15% (Where two ballot measures conflict, the one with more votes supersedes the other) Establish paid sick leave Yes: 62% No: 19% Undecided: 19% Legalize medical marijuana Yes: 70% No: 18% Undecided: 12% Allow and regulate business for medical marijuana Yes: 65% No: 23% Undecided: 12% n=1293 RV, 8/23-8/27 (IVR/SMS2Web/Online) https://split-ticket.org/2024/08/31/we-polled-nebraska-and-its-second-district-heres-what-we-found/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Big Blitz Posted August 31 Author Share Posted August 31 3 minutes ago, Backintheday544 said: You think in a poll a +7 Dem sample where Kamala is +2 means that it took a +7 Dem sample just to get a +2 Harris. You didn't know the polls are weighted to match the expected voting. That's what I'm talking about. Never said that. Now tell me how easily the weighting is done. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Backintheday544 Posted August 31 Share Posted August 31 30 minutes ago, Big Blitz said: Never said that. Now tell me how easily the weighting is done. From Trump 2024 where I had to explain to you what weighing is. On 8/14/2024 at 11:21 AM, Big Blitz said: D plus 10 LOL LOL It’s not done easily. Each pollster does it different. With large enough samples they can weigh down to things like age, sex, and other characteristics. In the end it’s all math. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
B-Man Posted September 1 Share Posted September 1 Harris momentum stalls, CNN talk didn’t help. She polls best when nobody sees her or hears from her or thinks about her. https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/news/washington-secrets/3140278/harris-momentum-stalls-cnn-talk-didnt-help/#google_vignette 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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K D Posted September 3 Share Posted September 3 It's over for Kameltoe but there's 0% chance they will let Trump win. Something big will happen in the next 60 days guaranteed if this continues. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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