Big Blitz Posted June 6 Share Posted June 6 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SCBills Posted June 6 Share Posted June 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Big Blitz Posted June 6 Author Share Posted June 6 I'm extremely skeptical about the ***t show that is Arizona. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SCBills Posted June 6 Share Posted June 6 (edited) 1 hour ago, Big Blitz said: I'm extremely skeptical about the ***t show that is Arizona. You should be. MAGA is taking a sledgehammer to a reliably red state. Kari Lake is an absolute joke of a candidate and the AZ GOP is akin to Florida Democrats in terms of their effectiveness. Still think Trump splits the ticket and wins Arizona though. Lake, not so much. Edited June 6 by SCBills 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SCBills Posted June 7 Share Posted June 7 Apparently Arizona Dems want to be a dumpster fire as well. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Backintheday544 Posted June 7 Share Posted June 7 9 hours ago, Big Blitz said: I'm extremely skeptical about the ***t show that is Arizona. Well that’s bad news for MAGA with Polymarket. WI, PA, and MI to Biden give him 270. 2 hours ago, SCBills said: Apparently Arizona Dems want to be a dumpster fire as well. She’s not an indicted felon yet, not that that seems to matter to people here. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Big Blitz Posted June 17 Author Share Posted June 17 Omg Selzer is Iowa’s best pollster. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BillsFanNC Posted June 17 Share Posted June 17 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tommy Callahan Posted June 18 Share Posted June 18 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Frankish Reich Posted June 18 Share Posted June 18 And in the "good news for election geeks" category, I see that Nate Silver will now be doing his presidential forecast on his substack: https://www.natesilver.net/p/pollster-ratings-silver-bulletin Free, at least for now. First one will be out before the debate! One general comment from me: it seems to me that national polling is still (astoundingly, given response rates in the days of cell phone polling) pretty good. On the other hand, state-level polling is pretty bad. Iowa is now one of those no-doubter red states, so I'm not arguing about that. But the key states (Michigan, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Arizona, Nevada) are still really hard to read, perhaps because they depend so much on turnout rates. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tiberius Posted June 18 Share Posted June 18 Independents fleeing MAGA in droves, it appears Trump can always make license plates 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
B-Man Posted June 18 Share Posted June 18 This Could Be The Biggest News of the 2024 Campaign Yet. “There is no scenario where Trump wins Iowa by 18 points but loses Wisconsin.” https://pjmedia.com/matt-margolis/2024/06/17/this-could-be-the-biggest-news-of-the-2024-campaign-yet-n4929943 . 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Big Blitz Posted June 18 Author Share Posted June 18 51 minutes ago, Tiberius said: Independents fleeing MAGA in droves, it appears Trump can always make license plates Nope. More details on Marist poll. 35-34. Look at the under 45 vs the old folks Ds don’t want voting omg. ^^^ Gen X doing its job. Well done. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Backintheday544 Posted June 19 Share Posted June 19 New poll looking terrible for Trump: https://www.ipsos.com/sites/default/files/ct/news/documents/2024-06/Politico Magazine Trump Verdict Topline 06 12 2024.pdf Ignoring the Dem responses because they’re in line with expectations, the R and I results are terrible. Question 7 - 8 percent of Republicans now less likely to support Trump. 31 percent of independents less likely to support Trump due to the conviction. Question 9 - 42 percent of Independents think Trump should go to Jail Question 11-3 and 11-4 are really interesting. 41 percent of Independents think Biden uses the Justice Department to go after political enemies, but 50 percent felt Trump uses the Justice Department to go after enemies. Trump can’t win losing that type of support among Rs and Is. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Big Blitz Posted June 19 Author Share Posted June 19 39 minutes ago, Backintheday544 said: New poll looking terrible for Trump: https://www.ipsos.com/sites/default/files/ct/news/documents/2024-06/Politico Magazine Trump Verdict Topline 06 12 2024.pdf Ignoring the Dem responses because they’re in line with expectations, the R and I results are terrible. Question 7 - 8 percent of Republicans now less likely to support Trump. 31 percent of independents less likely to support Trump due to the conviction. Question 9 - 42 percent of Independents think Trump should go to Jail Question 11-3 and 11-4 are really interesting. 41 percent of Independents think Biden uses the Justice Department to go after political enemies, but 50 percent felt Trump uses the Justice Department to go after enemies. Trump can’t win losing that type of support among Rs and Is. So IPSOS thinks only 26 percent of the voters are Republicans? The same as Independents? Lol lol lol. Most exit polls in 2020 were D37-R36-I26. And that’s been consistent since 2016. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Backintheday544 Posted June 19 Share Posted June 19 1 minute ago, Big Blitz said: So IPSOS thinks only 26 percent of the voters are Republicans? The same as Independents? Lol lol lol. Most exit polls in 2020 were D37-R36-I26. And that’s been consistent since 2016. You can ignore the break out of the poll, as the percentages are among Republicans and Independents. So looking at only independents sampled, 42 percent of the independents said Trump should be in jail and 31 percent said the conviction makes them less likely to support. Of the independents sampled, 50 percent thought Trumps DOJ went after enemies vs 41 percent for Biden. The party cross section doesn’t really matter here since they’re not looking to get an idea of how they’re voting but how a group of people are answering a question. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Big Blitz Posted June 20 Author Share Posted June 20 NY in single digits Independents appear to …. be gravitating to the felon. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SCBills Posted June 20 Share Posted June 20 I think there is clearly some movement towards Biden based on multiple polls coming out as of late. If the whole “convicted felon” thing truly gets Biden re-elected again.. we’re cooked as a country. Even if you’re uneducated and relying on the mainstream media for info, the only reason Biden won’t also be a “convicted felon” is because Special Counsel deemed him too senile to stand trial.. then again, I’m sure ABC nightly news isn’t exactly relaying that info either. Trump also brings a lot of this on himself. He’s made no effort to appeal to Haley voters and the Good/McGuire race infuriated a lot of DeSantis folks who are non-committal on voting Trump. His Truth Social posts are an absolute joke, reflective of a petulant child and he’s lucky to have a financial commitment to stay off X, because at least is lessens the visibility of his daily nonsense. His pitching himself as Bush/Romney type Republican, which he actually is in policy, but with the fiery rhetoric of a nationalist. I’m not exactly sure who that appeals to, because the rhetoric turns off moderates and the policy/endorsements turn off conservatives. His ground game is woefully lacking behind Biden’s, even though Republicans have warned him of that since he became the foregone conclusion as nominee. He’s still the favorite to win, but he has very real weaknesses .. some media/Dem manipulated and some brought on himself, that are showing through in polling right now. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Backintheday544 Posted June 20 Share Posted June 20 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
B-Man Posted June 21 Share Posted June 21 . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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