Jefferson gets paid: 4yr, $140m contract signed

[HOUSE]

Why can't we find a cheap WR like this ?

 

[BADOLBILZ]

19 minutes ago, BarleyNY said:

 

I listen to the Over The Cap’s podcast sometimes. It’s definitely not for everyone, but there are some great insights. About a month ago the host was talking about Jefferson’s contract. That the Vikings would want a longer extension of 5 years and JJ would want 3. Then he talked about the AAV for those deals before concluding that the best compromise might be something like a 4 year extension at $35M AAV. He was exactly correct. This is where the market is. 

 

 

See I had thought Jefferson would get $37M based on the cap rise since the last two "elite" proven WR in Hill and Adams.

 

But what that didn't take into account is the huge change in guarantees over the Hill and Adams contracts(the last WR of that ilk to get big deals).

 

Hill got 60% guaranteed.    

 

Jefferson got 79%.

 

That's extraordinary.    

 

Jefferson's deal in that context isn't just on par relative to what Hill and Adams signed with a lower cap.........it's far more lucrative.........not just a matter of $3M to $5M aav.

 

Of course, we won't hear from Baghad Bob aka @Thurman#1 who at the time was also arguing that top of the market for QB's wasn't $50M because guys like JA and Mahomes(whose deals are out of date) had lower aav's than that. 

 

 

 

 

[BarleyNY]

1 minute ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

 

See I had thought Jefferson would get $37M based on the cap rise since the last two "elite" proven WR in Hill and Adams.

 

But what that didn't take into account is the huge change in guarantees over the Hill and Adams contracts(the last WR of that ilk to get big deals).

 

Hill got 60% guaranteed.    

 

Jefferson got 79%.

 

That's extraordinary.    

 

Jefferson's deal in that context isn't just on par relative to what Hill and Adams signed with a lower cap.........it's far more lucrative.........not just a matter of $3M to $5M aav.

 

Of course, we won't hear from Baghad Bob aka @Thurman#1 who at the time was also arguing that top of the market for QB's wasn't $50M because guys like JA and Mahomes(whose deals are out of date) had lower aav's than that. 

 

 

One difference between JJ vs Adams and Hill were their contract situations at the times of their respective signings. JJ got his while still having to play on his 5th year option. Hill got his as part of the big trade and Adams had just been tagged a second time. That difference in leverage probably factored in. I think I’m remembering all of that correctly. 

 

I think some people react emotionally to these dollars rather than looking at them more clinically. Also some haven’t dug into the economics of it all. The NFL and owners are making tremendous amounts of money, the players are getting their negotiated share and those enormous dollars are allocated primarily to the biggest difference makers. That’s just how the economics works.

 

A long time ago I had a graduate level econ class. My prof’s specialty was the economics of MLB/baseball. It happened to be during the last MLB work stoppage. I learned so much about how the economics of baseball works versus the other leagues like the NFL. Those are the teo most different leagues so they were his usual examples. 

[Ga boy]

20 hours ago, billsfan89 said:

 

I think the Bills can further address the future of the WR position by drafting another WR in round 1 next year. Adding Franklin would have been nice long term but they also have Shakir locked in for 2025, Coleman is a nice addition and Samuel is 28 and locked in for 3 years on a good contract. That's 3 younger/prime players locked in at WR for 2025, the Bills can add a WR in round 1 or 2 to further solidify that longer term while extending Shakir hopefully coming off another quality season. Kincaid also could be an "alpha" type TE while Knox is still a reliable if overpaid vet role player. 

 

The Bills aren't bare at WR in terms of younger or prime players so a "double dip" wasn't needed. And MVS and Claypool are nice stop gap solutions to bridge the gap to next season where they can go WR up high twice possibly if really needed thanks to that extra second rounder. 

 

My hope is that the Bills can get Coleman to give them similar production to what Gabe Davis gave them in Gabe's rookie year. 60-70 targets with about 45-55 receptions and 600ish yards 4-5 TD's. I then think you are going to need Kincaid to be a 1,000 yard TE while Shakir pushes 900-1000 yards and Samuel gives you 700 yards. I think you then probably need 800 yards combined from Cook and Knox. Those totals from Coleman/Shakir/Samuel/Kincaid/Cook/Knox get you to 4k yards so then you can get the complementary pieces such as the backup RB's, MVS, Hollins, Claypool etc, to push past the 4k mark and make up for any injuries to the other targets. 

 

It's doable but it's gonna require Shakir to be a consistent target, Coleman to have a nice rookie year, Samuel to have a reasonable "good" season and Kincaid to emerge as the main guy on the offense. 

 

Is JJ a speed, separation guy??  I don’t see that that’s his forte.  What is he, like a 4.5.  The highlights I see are contested catches which bodes well for Keon.  It will be interesting to see what Keon becomes.  80% of JJ would be amazing!

[Buffalo_Stampede]

5 minutes ago, Ga boy said:

Is JJ a speed, separation guy??  I don’t see that that’s his forte.  What is he, like a 4.5.  The highlights I see are contested catches which bodes well for Keon.  It will be interesting to see what Keon becomes.  80% of JJ would be amazing!

He’s everything. He’s faster than 4.5 also, plus plays even faster. 
 

I do remember during draft time that most saw him as a big slot, which is what many say about Coleman. Coleman just didn’t have the production though.

Edited June 4 by Buffalo_Stampede

[billsfan89]

54 minutes ago, Ga boy said:

Is JJ a speed, separation guy??  I don’t see that that’s his forte.  What is he, like a 4.5.  The highlights I see are contested catches which bodes well for Keon.  It will be interesting to see what Keon becomes.  80% of JJ would be amazing!

 

Jefferson ran a 4.43 which while not blazing speed is still good speed especially for his size which while not a huge guy he is 6 foot 1 plus. JJ has the Antonio Brown like game where he's an above average athlete (Brown ran a 4.48) but just elite at technique and execution. I think Keon's just a different type of player. Keon is a bigger and slower guy (I think the 4.53 he ran at his pro-day which is in line with what I think his actual speed is) than Jefferson. I think Keon is a "supped up" Gabe Davis. A big guy who can get downfield, make contested catches, work a decent screen game, and is a very strong blocker.

 

I think Keon's ceiling in my mind in Anquan Boldin. Boldin fell to the 54th pick round mainly due to running a 4.71 40 time which made teams think he was too slow. Prior to his combine he was pegged as a mid to late 1st round pick. Boldin played faster than his 40 time and he also brought an insane level of physicality and skill that pushed him over the top. I just don't think Jefferson is a comparable player BUT if Keon is anything close to Boldin then I think the Bills will be very very happy with the pick. Heck I think if Keon is a "supped up" Gabe Davis the Bills will be happy with the selection. Gabe was a quality WR he just never emerged as that consistent efficient threat as a WR2. If Gabe cut down on the drops and was more consistent and could impact the game in a few other ways he would have gotten to that 900-1000 yard 70 reception level. 

 

Overall my hope is that Keon can come in and give what Gabe gave his rookie year production wise. 45-55 receptions 600 yards 4-5 TD's. The Bills can make up the rest of the production from Diggs/Davis elsewhere on the roster but just having a nice complementary season similar to Gabe in Gabe's rookie year is a nice start and a solid enough impact for a player drafted 33rd. 

[Ga boy]

15 minutes ago, billsfan89 said:

 

Jefferson ran a 4.43 which while not blazing speed is still good speed especially for his size which while not a huge guy he is 6 foot 1 plus. JJ has the Antonio Brown like game where he's an above average athlete (Brown ran a 4.48) but just elite at technique and execution. I think Keon's just a different type of player. Keon is a bigger and slower guy (I think the 4.53 he ran at his pro-day which is in line with what I think his actual speed is) than Jefferson. I think Keon is a "supped up" Gabe Davis. A big guy who can get downfield, make contested catches, work a decent screen game, and is a very strong blocker.

 

I think Keon's ceiling in my mind in Anquan Boldin. Boldin fell to the 54th pick round mainly due to running a 4.71 40 time which made teams think he was too slow. Prior to his combine he was pegged as a mid to late 1st round pick. Boldin played faster than his 40 time and he also brought an insane level of physicality and skill that pushed him over the top. I just don't think Jefferson is a comparable player BUT if Keon is anything close to Boldin then I think the Bills will be very very happy with the pick. Heck I think if Keon is a "supped up" Gabe Davis the Bills will be happy with the selection. Gabe was a quality WR he just never emerged as that consistent efficient threat as a WR2. If Gabe cut down on the drops and was more consistent and could impact the game in a few other ways he would have gotten to that 900-1000 yard 70 reception level. 

 

Overall my hope is that Keon can come in and give what Gabe gave his rookie year production wise. 45-55 receptions 600 yards 4-5 TD's. The Bills can make up the rest of the production from Diggs/Davis elsewhere on the roster but just having a nice complementary season similar to Gabe in Gabe's rookie year is a nice start and a solid enough impact for a player drafted 33rd. 

Good points.  I see that JJ is fast enough.  I would say the same for Keon.  I remember the JJ contested catch against us when our DB had his hands all over the ball.  Most of JJs highlights are contested catches.  I think we’ll see Keon win a lot of these too.  He’s strong with an attitude, plus he has hand-eye concentration of a forward.  I’m excited about what’s coming.

[billsfan89]

1 minute ago, Ga boy said:

Good points.  I see that JJ is fast enough.  I would say the same for Keon.  I remember the JJ contested catch against us when our DB had his hands all over the ball.  Most of JJs highlights are contested catches.  I think we’ll see Keon win a lot of these too.  He’s strong with an attitude, plus he has hand-eye concentration of a forward.  I’m excited about what’s coming.

 

JJ has some really amazing quick footwork highlights in addition to his contested catches. I don't think Keon is going to be breaking players ankles with his fluidity that often but if he can be physical at the point of attack and crisp with his route running I think he can be a very successful NFL WR.

[Jerome007]

On 6/3/2024 at 9:39 AM, Brand J said:

$35M AAV, yikes. If I was GM I’d much rather take the Packers approach, where I have a stable of young, cheap, and good WRs, versus one commanding that amount. Jefferson is a great talent, likely a future first ballot HoFer, but that’s A LOT of money to tie into a position that’s dependent on the QB. Oh well, it’s not the Bills money. Receivers around the NFL rejoice!

Nope, it's not Bills money. But it affects the Bills and all teams now that want top WRs. I don't think they are worth it at THAT price tag.

[Brand J]

9 minutes ago, Jerome007 said:

Nope, it's not Bills money. But it affects the Bills and all teams now that want top WRs. I don't think they are worth it at THAT price tag.

There was just an article in the Athletic about the “big four” now becoming the “big five.” The big four used to be QB, LT, DE, and CB, now not only can we add WR to that list, but there are currently no CBs making more than $22M/yr. There’s close to 20 WRs currently making over that amount (with more due to sign). Athletes that left RB to become CB will now leave that position to become WR.

[Putin]

On 6/3/2024 at 10:09 AM, mrags said:

Won’t know until you actually start drafting them with your future HOF QB throwing him the ball. 

Just keep on beating that dead house 

[Buffalo_Stampede]

25 minutes ago, Jerome007 said:

Nope, it's not Bills money. But it affects the Bills and all teams now that want top WRs. I don't think they are worth it at THAT price tag.

It’s all about cap%. I think a 25 year old best WR in the league is worth 13-14% of the cap. That’s what Calvin Johnson signed for 10 years ago. The cap is just much higher now.

WRs behind the top 2-3 contracts have gone up though. So it’s definitely a position on the rise. 

 

[Putin]

On 6/3/2024 at 10:31 AM, MikePJ76 said:

I think the Bills make the playoffs this year but I still think they are behind the chiefs because the chiefs are just better up front.  The Bills have done nothing to change that this offseason.  

 

I view the Bills currently as in the same ballpark as the 90's packers.  The packers just could not beat Dallas in the playoffs.  They tried everything.  Signed one of the greatest players in nfl history in reggie white and he got his azz kicked in two playoff games against Dallas.  They just could not matchup because of Dallas talent up front on both sides of the ball.  It completely disrupted their ability to play the game the way they wanted to.

 

Green Bay finally got over the hump in 96 because Dallas was running on fumes and with irvin suspended and deion hurt Dallas lost to Carolina.

 

To me as it stands today, the Bills need someone else to knock off KC and then they need to go win.  I think its possible.  Buffalo struggles with Cincy and JAX a little also but I think they would have a better shot today at Cincy, Jax, Baltimore than KC.  Especially if the ravens decided to play like a passing first team the way they did last year vs KC in the championship game, that was just insane.   The AFC is loaded.  I just hope the Bills are actually healthy for once when the playoffs start, I believe they will be in them someway somehow.

We don’t need anyone to beat KC for us what we need is going into the playoffs healthy 

On 6/3/2024 at 11:44 AM, mrags said:

Maybe we should just trade Allen then. Let’s trade him for 2 more TEs, and Derrick Henry.

 

Are you always that miserable ??

[Doc Brown]

5 hours ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

 

See I had thought Jefferson would get $37M based on the cap rise since the last two "elite" proven WR in Hill and Adams.

 

But what that didn't take into account is the huge change in guarantees over the Hill and Adams contracts(the last WR of that ilk to get big deals).

 

Hill got 60% guaranteed.    

 

Jefferson got 79%.

 

That's extraordinary.    

 

Jefferson's deal in that context isn't just on par relative to what Hill and Adams signed with a lower cap.........it's far more lucrative.........not just a matter of $3M to $5M aav.

 

Of course, we won't hear from Baghad Bob aka @Thurman#1 who at the time was also arguing that top of the market for QB's wasn't $50M because guys like JA and Mahomes(whose deals are out of date) had lower aav's than that. 

 

 

 

 

This was where the range most projected for him and I'd figure he'd get a guarantee percentage as strong as the recent elite QB contracts given out.  He's the best WR in football and is only four months older than Dalton Kincaid.  He should have a healthy third contract too which is around the age Hill and Adams signed their recent contracts.

Edited June 4 by Doc Brown

[Putin]

On 6/3/2024 at 12:10 PM, GoBills808 said:

I believe we saw the absolute pinnacle of what this offense could accomplish playing ball control in the last divisional game vs one of the best defenses in the league in KC

 

they played a perfect game and still needed a freak fumble to keep it close. And that was w a better offensive roster. It's not going to work imo, we don't have the players or the coaching for it

 

Yes yes that’s what cost us the game against the Chiefs not all the injuries on defense yes yes it was what you are saying 

[Putin]

4 hours ago, Buffalo_Stampede said:

He’s everything. He’s faster than 4.5 also, plus plays even faster. 
 

I do remember during draft time that most saw him as a big slot, which is what many say about Coleman. Coleman just didn’t have the production though.

Considering who was throwing Colman the ball and JJ 

[Utah John]

Running backs are like the IT guys at most businesses.  Good ones are a dime a dozen, while really special ones get paid.  They have a wide range of duties and they're expected to be good at all of them.  And most IT guys move to another job in a few years (although they leave because they developed skills, while RBs leave because they're used up).

[mrags]

58 minutes ago, Putin said:

Just keep on beating that dead house 

21 minutes ago, Putin said:

Considering who was throwing Colman the ball and JJ 

Already been pointed out who was throwing JJ the ball. Cousins has 7 seasons with over 4k yards. lol 

[GoBills808]

37 minutes ago, Putin said:

Yes yes that’s what cost us the game against the Chiefs not all the injuries on defense yes yes it was what you are saying 

Yeah wasn't talking about the defense at all

[Billl]

1 hour ago, Putin said:

Yes yes that’s what cost us the game against the Chiefs not all the injuries on defense yes yes it was what you are saying 

Is your expectation that the Bills won’t have injuries in the future but other teams will?