Jefferson gets paid: 4yr, $140m contract signed

[MikePJ76]

3 minutes ago, GoBills808 said:

I believe we saw the absolute pinnacle of what this offense could accomplish playing ball control in the last divisional game vs one of the best defenses in the league in KC

 

they played a perfect game and still needed a freak fumble to keep it close. And that was w a better offensive roster. It's not going to work imo, we don't have the players or the coaching for it

 

well I disagree completely with basically everything you just stated here.

 

and you are like the other poster using the term ball control in a much different meaning than I am.  

 

[billsfan89]

10 minutes ago, mrags said:

I LOVE SVPG!!! Really like Davis. 
 

And I do agree that in year 1 of rookie Franklin or anyone else for that matter (Coleman included) won’t make a difference. At least not one as much as MVS or even Claypool imo (assuming he gets his head in straight). But I’m not talking about 1 year. I’m talking g about the future of this team. We got ourselves in trouble because of this. Guys like Miller never materialized to what we needed. A different approach is needed. Even though a complete overhaul was NEEDED in the WR room imo, we did it in a way that made no sense. 

 

I think the Bills can further address the future of the WR position by drafting another WR in round 1 next year. Adding Franklin would have been nice long term but they also have Shakir locked in for 2025, Coleman is a nice addition and Samuel is 28 and locked in for 3 years on a good contract. That's 3 younger/prime players locked in at WR for 2025, the Bills can add a WR in round 1 or 2 to further solidify that longer term while extending Shakir hopefully coming off another quality season. Kincaid also could be an "alpha" type TE while Knox is still a reliable if overpaid vet role player. 

 

The Bills aren't bare at WR in terms of younger or prime players so a "double dip" wasn't needed. And MVS and Claypool are nice stop gap solutions to bridge the gap to next season where they can go WR up high twice possibly if really needed thanks to that extra second rounder. 

 

My hope is that the Bills can get Coleman to give them similar production to what Gabe Davis gave them in Gabe's rookie year. 60-70 targets with about 45-55 receptions and 600ish yards 4-5 TD's. I then think you are going to need Kincaid to be a 1,000 yard TE while Shakir pushes 900-1000 yards and Samuel gives you 700 yards. I think you then probably need 800 yards combined from Cook and Knox. Those totals from Coleman/Shakir/Samuel/Kincaid/Cook/Knox get you to 4k yards so then you can get the complementary pieces such as the backup RB's, MVS, Hollins, Claypool etc, to push past the 4k mark and make up for any injuries to the other targets. 

 

It's doable but it's gonna require Shakir to be a consistent target, Coleman to have a nice rookie year, Samuel to have a reasonable "good" season and Kincaid to emerge as the main guy on the offense. 

 

[mrags]

3 minutes ago, billsfan89 said:

 

I think the Bills can further address the future of the WR position by drafting another WR in round 1 next year. Adding Franklin would have been nice long term but they also have Shakir locked in for 2025, Coleman is a nice addition and Samuel is 28 and locked in for 3 years on a good contract. That's 3 younger/prime players locked in at WR for 2025, the Bills can add a WR in round 1 or 2 to further solidify that longer term while extending Shakir hopefully coming off another quality season. Kincaid also could be an "alpha" type TE while Knox is still a reliable if overpaid vet role player. 

 

The Bills aren't bare at WR in terms of younger or prime players so a "double dip" wasn't needed. And MVS and Claypool are nice stop gap solutions to bridge the gap to next season where they can go WR up high twice possibly if really needed thanks to that extra second rounder. 

 

My hope is that the Bills can get Coleman to give them similar production to what Gabe Davis gave them in Gabe's rookie year. 60-70 targets with about 45-55 receptions and 600ish yards 4-5 TD's. I then think you are going to need Kincaid to be a 1,000 yard TE while Shakir pushes 900-1000 yards and Samuel gives you 700 yards. I think you then probably need 800 yards combined from Cook and Knox. Those totals from Coleman/Shakir/Samuel/Kincaid/Cook/Knox get you to 4k yards so then you can get the complementary pieces such as the backup RB's, MVS, Hollins, Claypool etc, to push past the 4k mark and make up for any injuries to the other targets. 

 

It's doable but it's gonna require Shakir to be a consistent target, Coleman to have a nice rookie year, Samuel to have a reasonable "good" season and Kincaid to emerge as the main guy on the offense. 

 

That’s a crap ton of IFs 

[GoBills808]

17 minutes ago, MikePJ76 said:

well I disagree completely with basically everything you just stated here.

 

and you are like the other poster using the term ball control in a much different meaning than I am.  

 

Ok

 

My definition of ball control is dependent on TOP and total offensive plays w some ypp/rush to pass ratios informing

 

Not sure exactly what yours is but if you didn't think that's exactly what they were doing vs KC we just won't agree

[billsfan89]

Just now, mrags said:

That’s a crap ton of IFs 

 

It is, but I also don't think I am shooting for the stars either I think those are reasonable projections overall.

 

1. Coleman having 600 yards is about what Gabe did his rookie year and I think Coleman as a rookie is more talented than Gabe was. Their roles could be similar as well. 
2. Shakir getting 900 yards sounds like a lot but its less than 300 more than he had last year and Shakir had 536 yards the last 10 games of last season which is almost exactly a 900 yard season pace. So all you would be asking Shakir to do is just continue the production he had the last 10 games of last year.
3. Samuel having 700 yards is pretty reasonable given that he had 600+ back to back season with a crappy QB throwing to him in Washington. I think 700 is fair for him.
4. Cook/Knox at 800 yards is also reasonable. They combined for 641 last year despite Knox missing a bunch of games. Knox staying healthy they should be able to do that. 

The only one that would be a gigantic leap Kincaid he did have 673 yards last year on just 91 targets. It stands to reason if he gets 30-40 more targets that he can push past 1k yards. I think the other 4 projections are "fair" with MVS, backup RB's, Hollins and possibly Claypool stepping up in case of injury and adding some bonus yards here or there. But I feel somewhat confident that we can get that level of production from Shakir/Samuel/Coleman/Knox/Cook/Kincaid. Historically and based off last season the projections for Shakir/Samuel/Knox/Cook are pretty in line. Coleman and Kincaid are the big IF's. 

[Bobby Hooks]

3 hours ago, mrags said:

6? They could get 20 of those guys and it still wouldn’t matter. 

Wouldn’t matter for what? Not sure I’m following. Are you saying the Vikings will be better than the Bills this year? 

[mrags]

4 minutes ago, Bobby Hooks said:

Wouldn’t matter for what? Not sure I’m following. Are you saying the Vikings will be better than the Bills this year? 

I just spent the last 4 hours arguing with people about all this. I’m not about to start again. Feel free to read through the thread. 

[billsfan89]

1 hour ago, Buffalo_Stampede said:

Jefferson actually got less than Hill in terms of cap %. Thats interesting.

 

 

 

Wasn't Jefferson on the 5th year option this season? So maybe they could only add so much money to that number? Also maybe they backloaded the deal because the cap is going to go up so much these next few years once new TV money comes in. 

[GASabresIUFan]

4 hours ago, KingBoots8 said:

Justin Jefferson gets. 4 year, $140m contact with $110m guaranteed. Most ever by a non-qb

 

https://www.nfl.com/news/vikings-signing-wr-justin-jefferson-to-four-year-140-million-contract-extension

That is stupid money even for a great WR.

[The Jokeman]

1 hour ago, mrags said:

We generally agree. I like Davis a lot but don’t see him having that much of an impact. At least not this season. Probably not until they let Cook walk. I agree with the assessment on offense. I’m not very high on Coleman however. But I think we’ll be just fine. But that doesn’t take away from the fact that an elite WR talent at WR would make them even better. It would make Allen better. It would make the other WRs better. It would make the running game better. Hell, it would make the defense better as they could pin their ears back and go eat QBs as teams will be playing from behind with all the points we’d be putting up on people. 

I think Beane's long term plan was to keep Diggs until his deal ran out, yet something happened last season that derailed all that maybe it was Diggs reaction to McDermott's preseason comments, maybe it was the Week 1 explosion by Josh maybe it was Diggs ineptness in the last 13 weeks and us going on a run with him producing far less than his contract or maybe Stefon asked for a trade after the season ended? The only one who knows for sure was Beane so he pieced together the best group he felt he could. I mean most fans didn't want to bring Gabe back at the contract he got. I admit I was shocked we traded Diggs but in retrospect think we got fair value for what ended up happening in Houston. In terms of trading for Jefferson, I don't think there was anyway we'd get him. As sure he was available but it seemed the caveat was as long as the Vikings got Nabors. As we saw they didn't so they stuck with Jefferson. Now could the Bills have added another veteran outside of Samuel or Hollins? Sure but Beane is trying to build up his roster and not going all in for 2024-25. He knows he could have another decade or so of strong play with JA17 so no need to blow our wad in one offseason. Now he has $13 million or so in cap room and even more going into next season but with Samuel and Coleman under contract and who knows maybe we see an in season trade for a guy like to what we saw when traded for Rasul Douglas last season? To help us for the playoff push if need it? 

[Doc]

4 hours ago, MJS said:

Now Tyreek Hill will REALLY want a new deal.

 

And more baby mamas.

[mrags]

5 minutes ago, The Jokeman said:

I think Beane's long term plan was to keep Diggs until his deal ran out, yet something happened last season that derailed all that maybe it was Diggs reaction to McDermott's preseason comments, maybe it was the Week 1 explosion by Josh maybe it was Diggs ineptness in the last 13 weeks and us going on a run with him producing far less than his contract or maybe Stefon asked for a trade after the season ended? The only one who knows for sure was Beane so he pieced together the best group he felt he could. I mean most fans didn't want to bring Gabe back at the contract he got. I admit I was shocked we traded Diggs but in retrospect think we got fair value for what ended up happening in Houston. In terms of trading for Jefferson, I don't think there was anyway we'd get him. As sure he was available but it seemed the caveat was as long as the Vikings got Nabors. As we saw they didn't so they stuck with Jefferson. Now could the Bills have added another veteran outside of Samuel or Hollins? Sure but Beane is trying to build up his roster and not going all in for 2024-25. He knows he could have another decade or so of strong play with JA17 so no need to blow our wad in one offseason. Now he has $13 million or so in cap room and even more going into next season but with Samuel and Coleman under contract and who knows maybe we see an in season trade for a guy like to what we saw when traded for Rasul Douglas last season? To help us for the playoff push if need it? 

First, I never implied we should have traded for JJ. I was simply arguing the fact that this team needs WR talent. It’s a fact. Was a fact in the draft at least. Beane admitted that by not only drafting one with their first draft pick, but also by picking up 2 more vets that have had some success in their careers at some point, to an extent. My point and argument has been and will continue to be, to build around Allen. Build and room of WRs that can help him become even better. In the wake of my arguments the point has been lost that continuing to draft them and get guys on rookie deals is the way to go. This way you always have 1-2 that are good enough, while always having a few guys in the back waiting for their chance to step up.  In fact it’s no different from how McBeane has approached the RB situation since they’ve been here. Started with Singletary and backing up up with Moss. Then backing them up with Cook. Then backing cook up with Davis. They continue to drop 2nd and 3rd round picks on RBs every single year. I’m simply advocating, taking a WR in Rds 2-4 every year as well. Instead they keep doing it with RB and LB and DE. 
 

if Beane doesn’t see ahead of time there was an issue with Diggs he should be fired. It was well documented since the Bengals game that he wasn’t happy. Even if it was blown out of proportion by the media, it was well known. And Beane still renegotiated Diggs contract and made it even harder to trade him/cut him. 

[Utah John]

The Bills are all-in on going against the grain of what other teams are doing on offense.  Most teams are focusing on QB/WR pairs and paying a fortune for them, and so most defenses are focused on stopping the pass.  The Bills are building a huge set of TEs and WRs, and look to me like a team that's going to balance passing and running, trying to wear out smaller defenses.  For this purpose, the Bills are not putting a huge pile of cash in anyone's pocket except Josh Allen's, and that makes perfect sense to me.  

 

Beane had a personal rule of not buying expensive FAs, instead building through the draft and smart trades.  He broke that rule with the Von Miller signing, which was a direct response to the 13 second game's failure to get to Mahomes.  That looked good until Miller got hurt (the Bills beat the Chiefs in the regular season when Miller pressured Mahomes and he threw an INT to Taron Johnson) but it's since blown up in their faces.  Now it's back to Beane following his own rule.  He's building a roster with a clear plan in mind, not the same plan as other teams are following, and that's probably going to work out well.

[BillsfaninSB]

3 hours ago, Buffalo_Stampede said:

I hope we’re in a position where we have to sign a top young WR we drafted.

Hopefully Kincaid will be that guy. 

[Buffalo_Stampede]

1 minute ago, BillsfaninSB said:

Hopefully Kincaid will be that guy. 

That’ll be great, he’ll get a fraction of what Jefferson gets even if he’s a 100 catch, 1200 yard, 8 TD player.

[Alphadawg7]

Rookie QB contracts cause teams to make dumb decisions.  I think within the next 5 years when the evidence is overwhelming that paying this much for a WR becomes more of an anchor on the team than creating SB winners that we will see WR contract sizes regress much like we saw with RB's.  Not saying to as low as RB's are, but I think they will come back down closer to mid 20's as the top of the market at some point.  

 

 

 

 

 

 

[MiracleAtRich1393]

5 hours ago, Miyagi-Do Karate said:

This is probably the one guy that deserves this money. But how do you build a team with so much money tied to one wide receiver? 

5 years of rookie deal QB $

[Steptide]

I think I see what beane and McDermott are doing. I remember years and years ago when the nfl was a run heavy league, people used to say wide receivers were a dime a dozen. I think (to some degree) the nfl is going back to that. Not cuz teams run so much, but because it's such a pass happy league now, wr's are readily available. So beane signs a bunch of good receivers, without having a true number 1. I get it. The production is there without spending insane amounts of money on a true number 1 wr. I bet the production is just as good with mid wr's. I'm rambling. Beane is a genius 

Edited June 3 by Steptide

[soflabillsfan1]

Thank God the Bills didn't draft this guy.  Would hate to pay him that kind of money. 🤡

[Augie]

5 hours ago, nbbillsfan said:

Will the bengals be able to pay Chase and Burrow?

 

Mike Brown should probably have a physician present when it’s time to stroke those checks, if he can get up the gumption.