Gronkowski, Kelce, Graham, Ward - Why do fans want want a Randy Moss type?

[Thrivefourfive]

15 hours ago, Chaos said:

 

About 50% of Super Bowls won this Century, had Rob Gronwkowski, Travis Kelce, Jimmy Graham or Hines Ward as the leading pass catcher on the winning team.  Winning Super Bowls without a Calvin Johnson or Justin Jefferson level WR1 is not just possible, its actually more common than not. 

Notwithstand the frequent turnover in OC's, the pre-2023 nightmare of an oline, the Bills offense has performed at level consistent with winning a Super Bowl for the last five years.   Its just silly to think the Bills current WR room is going to hold the Bills back.  Stefon Diggs was my favorite Bill other than Allen, since Diggs joined the team. I will miss rooting for him. But the Bills are not going to miss a beat on offense without him.  Josh Allen will just get things done in a different way. 

The Bills ability to get over the hump in the playoffs lies elswere. It has had very little to do with the talent on the offensive roster.  

It’s okay to have reservations on this one, only because it hasn’t happened yet. It’s just fact that Allen’s superstar years are with Diggs lined up. 

[Richard Noggin]

1 hour ago, FireChans said:

The biggest problem for most fans who won’t stop complaining about this is that in a super deep WR draft that was filled with need picks by the Bills, the Bills didn’t feel like they needed a 2nd WR over a 2nd RB or a safety or a 2nd 3T.

 

I get it, I was feeling it a little bit during day two and three, but overall it's not really rational. 

[mrags]

6 hours ago, FireChans said:

The biggest problem for most fans who won’t stop complaining about this is that in a super deep WR draft that was filled with need picks by the Bills, the Bills didn’t feel like they needed a 2nd WR over a 2nd RB or a safety or a 2nd 3T.

This is 100% what it’s all about. My dislike for Coleman is legit. But with the talent in the draft, especially in rds 2-5 that were still available and they went with depth picks. Guys that will never be more than backups at their positions (unless lightning strikes). Instead of throwing another body at the WR position. 
 

of course there’s no guarantee than any of those picks won’t be first ballot HOFers. Just like there’s no guarantee that a WR in rd 5 wouldn’t be. Just as factual that there’s no guarantee that Coleman will be any good. The point was their biggest need in the draft and this offseason was WR. And at that point they thought that 1 guy in rd2 was enough. Yet within weeks they also signed Claypool and MVS. They clearly thought they had needs there, and to pin all the hope that Coleman will be the guy is reckless. Should have snagged one more in the draft, enhance your odds of finding one that will work out. 

Edited June 2 by mrags

[NewEra]

12 hours ago, Billl said:

 

Sure, but there were approximately 0 people fitting him for a green jacket after his first actual season despite 862 yards and 5 TDs.  If Kincaid hits those numbers next season, and he might, that’s a fantastic second year.  Those still aren’t on par with #1 target numbers, though.  Short of being Gronk, you’d be hard pressed to find a TE who put up monster numbers their second year. That’s not a swipe in any way at Kincaid.  It’s simply the reality of the position.

Those are similar numbers to Kelce last season….where he was your WR1 and you won a Super Bowl.  
 

 

12 hours ago, Einstein's Dog said:

I would add any of Metcalf/Aiyuk/Sutton/D Adams/DHop..  No to BTJ. 

 

The addition of one of those takes the CB1 and safety and changes the way defenses will play us.  This helps the rest of the offense which I think is pretty solid.  The addition also moves down Hollins/MVS/Claypool.

Those first 2 guys would be mortgaging our future in a big way.  If you don’t see that, I can’t help you.

 

the other guys I would’ve been ok with…..but you’re acting like they were available.  Rumors are rumors.  None of them switched teams.  They are all where they started the offseason 

Edited June 2 by NewEra

[FireChans]

6 hours ago, Richard Noggin said:

 

I get it, I was feeling it a little bit during day two and three, but overall it's not really rational. 

It’s not rational? How so?

[Einstein's Dog]

34 minutes ago, NewEra said:

 

Those first 2 guys would be mortgaging our future in a big way.  If you don’t see that, I can’t help you.

 

the other guys I would’ve been ok with…..but you’re acting like they were available.  Rumors are rumors.  None of them switched teams.  They are all where they started the offseason 

Mortgaging or Investing?  Getting a real WR1 for several years is team building.  Getting an Aiyuk or Metcalf is not some band-aid, it's obtaining a bedrock core piece of Phase 2 of Josh's career.  

 

You're okay with D Adams or DHop who are much older?  Those would be fallback positions IMO.  They would solve the 2024 problem but would have 2026 questions.

 

I don't know which ones are really available, just showing there seem to be options.  It's Beane's job to bring one in.  SF is acting like they are moving someone (drafted 2 WRs and just gave $10M guaranteed to J Jennings).

[Sammy Watkins' Rib]

2 hours ago, mrags said:

This is 100% what it’s all about. My dislike for Coleman is legit. But with the talent in the draft, especially in rds 2-5 that were still available and they went with depth picks. Guys that will never be more than backups at their positions (unless lightning strikes). Instead of throwing another body at the WR position. 

 

I'm fine with just drafting one WR this year.

 

I think too many people are sleeping on the snap counts and targets that Kincaid/Knox and Cook/Davis are going to command this coming year. Then throw in Samuel, Shakir and Coleman. How many more snaps and targets would we be giving to rd 2-5 rookie WR? And why not see what Shorter can do in year 2 who is a former found 5 wr? 

 

And then of course you have your vet role players in MVS, Hollins and Claypool where it is very likely one of three doesn't even make the active roster because we won't have the need for that many WR's. 

 

 

[mrags]

28 minutes ago, Sammy Watkins' Rib said:

 

I'm fine with just drafting one WR this year.

 

I think too many people are sleeping on the snap counts and targets that Kincaid/Knox and Cook/Davis are going to command this coming year. Then throw in Samuel, Shakir and Coleman. How many more snaps and targets would we be giving to rd 2-5 rookie WR? And why not see what Shorter can do in year 2 who is a former found 5 wr? 

 

And then of course you have your vet role players in MVS, Hollins and Claypool where it is very likely one of three doesn't even make the active roster because we won't have the need for that many WR's. 

 

 

That’s besides the point. The point is, trying to find a legitimate WR to replace what we lost in both Diggs and Davis. And hopefully getting one that can be our future. With only drafting one, if you miss on the pick, you’re screwed. Should have taken another one. It increases your chances of finding your guy. And god forbid if they both hit and you need to feed them both the ball. Oh the horror. What would The Bengals do if they had to feed both Chase and Higgins. Or how about the Dolphins feeding both Hill and Waddle. you don’t have to have just 1 good player at the position. 

Edited June 2 by mrags

[Sammy Watkins' Rib]

5 minutes ago, mrags said:

That’s besides the point. The point is, trying to find a legitimate WR to replace what we lost in both Diggs and Davis. And hopefully getting one that can be our future. With only drafting one, if you miss on the pick, you’re screwed. Should have taken another one. It increases your chances of finding your guy. And god forbid if they both hit and you need to feed them both the ball. Oh the horror. What would The Bengals do if they had to feed both Chase and Higgins. Or how about the Dolphins feeding both Hill and Waddle. you don’t have to have just 1 good player at the position. 

 

It's not besides the point at all. Again, people are sleeping on the role that Kincaid/Knox and Cook/Davis will play in the offense moving forward. We are not replacing Diggs this year or next year. Bills will not have a WR on the team in the foreseeable future that commands 160+ targets per year. That is not the direction the offense wants to go. 

 

Both Diggs and Davis were phased out of the offense last year and the Bills turned the season around from a 5-5 start to a 6-1 finish with the one loss to the eagles in that 7 game stretch hardly falling on offensive issues.

 

Why are we making a big deal out of replacing two players that were phased out of the offense last year when the Bills went on their winning streak?

[FireChans]

3 minutes ago, Sammy Watkins' Rib said:

We are not replacing Diggs this year or next year. Bills will not have a WR on the team in the foreseeable future that commands 160+ targets per year. That is not the direction the offense wants to go

Are you sure that’s what they want or is that just what they are doing? 
 

There is a difference.

 

3 minutes ago, Sammy Watkins' Rib said:

Why are we making a big deal out of replacing two players that were phased out of the offense last year when the Bills went on their winning streak?

Because the passing offense was bad when we did so.

[Sammy Watkins' Rib]

30 minutes ago, FireChans said:

 

Because the passing offense was bad when we did so.

 

Do you want to win or have a neat passing offense like Miami and end the season on a losing streak?

 

Was the passing offense bad or basically the same as every late season passing offense in each of the last three seasons under 3 separate coordinators? The guy everyone wanted gone in Dorsey actually had the most efficient late season passing offense too. Dorsey's demise was not utilizing Allen as a runner in the first 10 games of 2023. Something he did for the entirety of 2022 and his predecessor and successor both did as well. 

 

Allen's passing numbers games 11-17 each of the last three seasons:

 

2021- 60% completion 228 ypg 6.0 ypa 85 QB rating 15 TDs 7 INTs (5-2 recod) Daboll OC

2022- 61% completion 226 ypg 6.8 ypa 96 QB rating 14 TDs 4 INTs (6-0 record) Dorsey OC

2023- 61% completion 244 ypg 7.5 ypa 86 QB rating 10 TDs 7 INTs (6-1 record) Brady OC

 

Numbers are nearly identical with the outlier being the TD : INT ratio in 2022. Last season the Bills traded in passing TD's for rushing TD's from Allen. Still near the exact same efficiency as under Daboll in 2021. 

 

 

30 minutes ago, FireChans said:

Are you sure that’s what they want or is that just what they are doing? 
 

There is a difference.

 

 

I do think it is a philosophical change with some purpose behind it.

 

With Allen at QB, he is always going to default to an aggressive playing style with throws down the field. I think the Bills want to try and shorten some of his air yards with the personnel they utilize knowing he is still going to naturally be slinging it when the opportunity presents itself.  You also know with Allen the passing game floor is going to be pretty high. So you want to support him as much as you can with a ground game to match.

Edited June 2 by Sammy Watkins' Rib

[Chaos]

2 minutes ago, Sammy Watkins' Rib said:

 

Do you want to win or have a neat passing offense like Miami and end the season on a losing streak?

 

Was the passing offense bad or basically the same as every late season passing offense in each of the last three seasons under 3 separate coordinators? The guy everyone wanted gone in Dorsey actually had the most efficient late season passing offense too. Dorsey's demise was not utilizing Allen as a runner in the first 10 games of 2023. Something he did for the entirety of 2022 and his predecessor and successor both did as well. 

 

Allen's passing numbers games 11-17 each of the last three seasons:

 

2021- 60% completion 228 ypg 6.0 ypa 85 QB rating 15 TDs 7 INTs (5-2 recod)

2022- 61% completion 226 ypg 6.8 ypa 96 QB rating 14 TDs 4 INTs (6-0 record)

2023- 61% completion 244 ypg 7.5 ypa 86 QB rating 10 TDs 7 INTs (6-1 record)

 

Numbers are nearly identical with the outlier being the TD : INT ratio in 2022. Last season the Bills traded in passing TD's for rushing TD's from Allen. Still near the exact same efficiency as under Daboll in 2021. 

 

 

Nice post. "Dorsey's demise was not utilizing Allen as a runner in the first 10 games of 2023". Should be bolded for emphasis. Not clear based on preseason comments last year that this was Dorsey's decision.   

The real question is how to not end the playoffs 1-1, or 0-1.  I wish I had the answer.  But it does not seem to be an issue with offensive talent. Or even offensive execution. To my eyes, the Bills have been out gameplanned in the playoff games. And the defense has faltered to many times in key moments. 

[FireChans]

9 minutes ago, Sammy Watkins' Rib said:

Do you want to win or have a neat passing offense like Miami and end the season on a losing streak?

 

Was the passing offense bad or basically the same as every late season passing offense in each of the last three seasons under 3 separate coordinators? The guy everyone wanted gone in Dorsey actually had the most efficient late season passing offense too. Dorsey's demise was not utilizing Allen as a runner in the first 10 games of 2023. Something he did for the entirety of 2022 and his predecessor and successor both did as well. 

 

Allen's passing numbers games 11-17 each of the last three seasons:

 

2021- 60% completion 228 ypg 6.0 ypa 85 QB rating 15 TDs 7 INTs (5-2 recod) Daboll OC

2022- 61% completion 226 ypg 6.8 ypa 96 QB rating 14 TDs 4 INTs (6-0 record) Dorsey OC

2023- 61% completion 244 ypg 7.5 ypa 86 QB rating 10 TDs 7 INTs (6-1 record) Brady OC

 

Numbers are nearly identical with the outlier being the TD : INT ratio in 2022. Last season the Bills traded in passing TD's for rushing TD's from Allen. Still near the exact same efficiency as under Daboll in 2021. 

I’d like to win games and not have the passing game be bad. Do you think that’s possible or do you think we are always doomed to have Allen rushing 9 times a game in November/December while his passing numbers fall off a cliff? 
 

serious question. Because there were lots of folks upset with Daboll during his tenure, and were very much looking forward to seeing what Dorsey could do. 
 

Some folks don’t want Josh to be forced to run through linebackers for the last 7 weeks of the season. And Dorsey didn’t want Josh used that way starting week 1, (probably to protect him and it wouldn’t surprise me if that was a directive from the top).

 

Brady probably didn’t care about running Josh because the season was lost if we lost another game AND he was  in the drivers’ seat for the job the next year as the interim.
 

12 minutes ago, Sammy Watkins' Rib said:

I do think it is a philosophical change with some purpose behind it.

 

With Allen at QB, he is always going to default to an aggressive playing style with throws down the field. I think the Bills want to try and shorten some of his air yards with the personnel they utilize knowing he is still going to naturally be slinging it when the opportunity presents itself.  You also know with Allen the passing game floor is going to be pretty high. So you want to support him as much as you can with a ground game to match.

Well, we are like 24 months removed from giving Diggs a top 5 WR contract so that’s quite a switch in philosophy. Maybe you’re right. I think much like the Chiefs getting rid of Hill, the Bills don’t think the juice is worth the squeeze. It’s less a philosophical switch as a pragmatic switch imo. 
 

FWIW, from a “floor is going to be pretty high,” an 85-86 passer rating is right around Justin Fields, Gardner Minshew and Will Levis. So I’m not sure that’s really that high.

 

Josh’s legs are the reason he can be a one man offense. Which he has pretty much HAD to be since 2020. Which is the problem to me.

 

You don’t see it as a problem. I guess this regime doesn’t see it as a problem as much as I do.

 

We’ll see. I’m hoping we don’t see history repeat itself with Cam.

[Billl]

34 minutes ago, Chaos said:

Nice post. "Dorsey's demise was not utilizing Allen as a runner in the first 10 games of 2023". Should be bolded for emphasis. Not clear based on preseason comments last year that this was Dorsey's decision.

So you’re in favor of designing an offense to give Josh 150+ carries in the regular season?  

[Sammy Watkins' Rib]

45 minutes ago, Chaos said:

Nice post. "Dorsey's demise was not utilizing Allen as a runner in the first 10 games of 2023". Should be bolded for emphasis. Not clear based on preseason comments last year that this was Dorsey's decision.   

 

It was 100% a HC/upper management decision. And look, we all get why it makes sense to try and go in that direction for obvious reasons. But that does not dismiss the obvious facts that in doing so we limit one of the best weapons in Allen's arsenal. We take him down from 100% of his capabilities to 85% or 90%. We make him easier to defend and less likely to make big plays or move the chains. 

 

The offense failed and Dorsey was shown the door. Brady came in and continued the status quo from 2021 and 2022 under Daboll and Dorsey and what do you know the Bills went on a winning streak like they've always done to close out the season. 

14 minutes ago, Billl said:

So you’re in favor of designing an offense to give Josh 150+ carries in the regular season?  

 

I wouldn't put in stone what the number needs to be. But under Dorsey's 10 game average last year that number would have been 81 carries. That's likely far too few.

 

153 that Brady was on pace for might be too many for an entire season but I also think the Bills started to employ the push tush a lot last year and that is in part why Allen had a career high average of 9 attempts per game last season on Brady's 7 games to close out the season. I don't necessarily see the Bills continuing to use that tush push philosophy going forward. I think they will run it with the backs if they can. But we will see.

 

And again, the Bills in 2021 and 2022 were over 8 carries per game with Allen in games 11-17 as well to close out the season. So this 150 carries pace is not something new to the offense. 

[Teddy KGB]

I want Randy Moss 

 

Is there another one being made ? 
 

Guy was a David Tyree helmet catch away from a perfect season iirc 

 

 

Edited June 2 by Teddy KGB

[Sammy Watkins' Rib]

40 minutes ago, FireChans said:

Josh’s legs are the reason he can be a one man offense. Which he has pretty much HAD to be since 2020. Which is the problem to me.

 

You don’t see it as a problem. I guess this regime doesn’t see it as a problem as much as I do.

 

We’ll see. I’m hoping we don’t see history repeat itself with Cam.

 

I simply think it is wrong to make your best weapon less of a threat. By limiting his running that is what you do. Bills best chance to win a Super Bowl will always be with Allen playing at 100% of his capabilities. Not 85% or 90%. The Bills are not going to get by the Chiefs and Mahomes with Allen only playing up to 85% of his abilities. And the conference is tough right now. Bills haven't even been able to obtain the 1 seed in the last four seasons and that is with the Chiefs only obtaining it themselves twice in that span. We need Allen with 100% of his capabilities in every game, even the week 1 and 2 regular season games .

 

Only time will tell if he has a shortened career like Cam. Allen has been a significantly better and consistent QB than Cam so I've never loved the comparison but I get why it is made. People think Cam fell off a cliff due to injuries. To me it was a bit more about Cam really only ever being completely average outside of one great year. So once Cam lost a hint of ability to age or injury, he really fell off a cliff. Once and when Allen loses a hint of ability to age or injury his ceiling should still remain much higher than Cam's. 

 

I disagree, with regards to how the Bills HC and upper management see the issue of Allen running. I do think they want less carries for Allen. I expect them to try that again to start next season. As you said, they through that game plan out the window (as they should have) when Brady took over and they were 5-5 and every game was a must win. But I do expect a similar focus of less carries for Allen to start the season next year. If the Bills are successful, maybe they will have the luxury they had in the 2020 season where Allen was not called on to carry a heavy load with his legs to end the 2020 season and the Bills went on a long winning streak. But as mentioned before, that 2020 season may never repeat itself again. Just as the 2018 and 2019 seasons for Mahomes and Jackson never repeated themselves to this point. 

[Chaos]

8 minutes ago, Teddy KGB said:

I want Randy Moss 

 

Is there another one being made ? 
 

Guy was a David Tyree helmet catch away from a perfect season iirc 

 

 

Coulda shoulda woulda. One of the few patriots who never won a Super Bowl with Brady. Literally a non-factor for ever winning a championship. 

[Billl]

14 minutes ago, Sammy Watkins' Rib said:

 

I wouldn't put in stone what the number needs to be. But under Dorsey's 10 game average last year that number would have been 81 carries. That's likely far too few.

 

153 that Brady was on pace for might be too many for an entire season but I also think the Bills started to employ the push tush a lot last year and that is in part why Allen had a career high average of 9 attempts per game last season on Brady's 7 games to close out the season. I don't necessarily see the Bills continuing to use that tush push philosophy going forward. I think they will run it with the backs if they can. But we will see.

 

And again, the Bills in 2021 and 2022 were over 8 carries per game with Allen in games 11-17 as well to close out the season. So this 150 carries pace is not something new to the offense

I actually agree with you, but you’ve got to understand that the move will be judged entirely with the benefit of hindsight in the event that Josh gets injured.  If I were designing the organizational philosophy, it would involve having Josh run around like a madman until he either gets injured or wins a title.  Would it shorten his career?  Probably, but that’s a price I’d be willing to pay in order to bring a parade to WNY.

[Sammy Watkins' Rib]

11 minutes ago, Billl said:

I actually agree with you, but you’ve got to understand that the move will be judged entirely with the benefit of hindsight in the event that Josh gets injured.  If I were designing the organizational philosophy, it would involve having Josh run around like a madman until he either gets injured or wins a title.  Would it shorten his career?  Probably, but that’s a price I’d be willing to pay in order to bring a parade to WNY.

 

I 100% agree. Balls to the wall or sugar high Josh whatever you want to call him is the most exciting and IMO unstoppable force the game has ever seen. It's the way he should play all the time. Josh will get injured. Everyone does. The question will be how does he comeback from an injury?