Gronkowski, Kelce, Graham, Ward - Why do fans want want a Randy Moss type?

[HappyDays]

26 minutes ago, Alphadawg7 said:

And Diggs publicly stated he wanted to remain a Bill and retire a Bill this offseason, flat out stated it, even though his team had already been given permission to try and find a trade Beane would accept.  And why do you think he said that?

 

Because he has surface level tact.

[HappyDays]

27 minutes ago, MasterStrategist said:

Again, who is this mysterious 2nd WR that you wanted drafted?

 

It isn't very mysterious. I wanted Troy Franklin.

 

28 minutes ago, MasterStrategist said:

Like it or not, getting a backup 3Tech was a bigger need than an extra WR

 

Okay, I don't agree with this at all. If your belief is that a backup 3T is more important than a #2 outside WR then that's your belief. Personally I would have preferred Troy Franklin even over Cole Bishop in the 2nd round, even knowing now that he was available an entire round later.

 

But hey as I've said many many times I'm no scout. I was never married to the idea of two specific WRs. I just strategically knew that taking two in this draft was the right decision for the short and long term. I suspect that by mid-season this will be clear to everybody. I know this because we went through the same exact song and dance last year.

 

34 minutes ago, MasterStrategist said:

So again, how are we benefitting by taking valuable reps away from Shakir/Samuel/Coleman/MVS/Hollins/etc for a "potential" WR6

 

I think we benefit from taking targets away from MVS and Hollins because that means MVS and Hollins are getting less targets.

[Sierra Foothills]

1 hour ago, Sierra Foothills said:

To the bolded, you can argue that you've been right, so far.

 

But McBeane are still steering the ship so again, no one knows what the future will hold.

 

I have not eliminated the possibility that the Bills have enough offensive weapons for the 2024 season.

 

20 minutes ago, FireChans said:

What is your definition of “enough?”

 

And while the future is unknown, there are some things we do know. We do know that Jamar Chase is better than Curtis Samuel, for example. And if every single guy of the JAG brigade matches their career highs, they still won’t be as good as Jamar Chase.

 

IMO, the only standard in this McBeane era is to win the Super Bowl. That's what I mean when I say "it's possible the Bills have done enough."

 

I wasn't talking about Chase so this opens a new can of worms (which I don't really want to do) but... is it a foregone conclusion that Chase will be signed to a second contract?

• Detroit is paying Goff/St. Brown $83 million/year average.
• Philly is paying Hurts/Brown/Smith $108 million/year average.
• Cinci is paying Burrows/Higgins, $77 million/average

Cinci will have to be willing to exceed what Philly is paying out... and if they do what are the implications for the rest of their roster? Cinci has also never won a Super Bowl (nor has Detroit). Is signing Chase a guarantee that they will?

 

Not every team has the same roster-building allocations and as we've seen, there are numerous ways to win a Super Bowl... not just one.

 

[MasterStrategist]

8 hours ago, HappyDays said:

 

It isn't very mysterious. I wanted Troy Franklin.

 

 

Okay, I don't agree with this at all. If your belief is that a backup 3T is more important than a #2 outside WR then that's your belief. Personally I would have preferred Troy Franklin even over Cole Bishop in the 2nd round, even knowing now that he was available an entire round later.

 

But hey as I've said many many times I'm no scout. I was never married to the idea of two specific WRs. I just strategically knew that taking two in this draft was the right decision for the short and long term. I suspect that by mid-season this will be clear to everybody. I know this because we went through the same exact song and dance last year.

 

 

I think we benefit from taking targets away from MVS and Hollins because that means MVS and Hollins are getting less targets.

Clearly the league viewed Troy way different than a lot of pre-draft rankings.

 

Maybe Troy pans out, but Beane clearly liked who we have (and adding MVS).  

 

Re: Rd 2, that's your take, but Cole Bishop is going to be a leader at S for us for a long time.  Real good player, where we have stop gap options. S is clearly an important piece to McD defense, so the argument of spending a 4th+ and being fine is just not aligned with their philosophy.

 

And backup 3tech, what happens on 35%+ of our snaps when Ed/Daquan are rotated out?  On top of that, who gives you any confidence if either goes down?  Not to mention, it's the 1 position where we don't have much young talent to build around.  

 

So it comes down to what Beane liked in our WR room + a need for a backup DT. As you've said before, Beane isn't wasting $$ on Jordan Phillips/Tim Settles of the world.  That tradeoff makes us better as a team, compared to adding Troy Franklin who the team spent A LOT of pre draft time with, and didn't pick him when given the chance a couple times.

[FireChans]

8 hours ago, MasterStrategist said:

Cephus was already being worked out, basically before the draft concluded.

 

Honestly, what you're saying is my point about anyone (making mistakes).  Beane has made them, as has the poster you're alluding to, it doesn't mean you carry that over someone's head forever.  So yeah, Beane made a mistake on LYs WR4/5, doesn't mean he made another error this season. In my book, Beane put together a very good group in 2020 and 2021, 2022 was so-so, and 2023 was the only "mistake" year at skill spots (although Cook took a big leap, Kincaid looks promising, and Shakir is still improving/played well down the stretch with more targets).

 

All that to say, Beanes track record has been better than most give credit for at the overall skill position group.  Proof will be in the pudding come Fall.

2022 was not “so-so.”

 

They had to call John Brown and Cole Beasley out of retirement mid-season. That’s a disaster.

 

It’s not about holding those past mistakes against Beane, it’s about recognizing a pattern. If a guy continually ***** up the WR position for 3 straight years, why should we have faith in year 4? Honestly.

[FireChans]

8 hours ago, Sierra Foothills said:

 

 

IMO, the only standard in this McBeane era is to win the Super Bowl. That's what I mean when I say "it's possible the Bills have done enough."

 

I wasn't talking about Chase so this opens a new can of worms (which I don't really want to do) but... is it a foregone conclusion that Chase will be signed to a second contract?

• Detroit is paying Goff/St. Brown $83 million/year average.
• Philly is paying Hurts/Brown/Smith $108 million/year average.
• Cinci is paying Burrows/Higgins, $77 million/average

Cinci will have to be willing to exceed what Philly is paying out... and if they do what are the implications for the rest of their roster? Cinci has also never won a Super Bowl (nor has Detroit). Is signing Chase a guarantee that they will?

 

Not every team has the same roster-building allocations and as we've seen, there are numerous ways to win a Super Bowl... not just one.

 

I’m not talking about Chase’s deal. I’m talking about his talent.

 

This whole, “we don’t know what the talent will be” line of optimism works to a point. But Shakir won’t be better than Chase. Samuel won’t either. Coleman is a wildcard but a probably not. 
 

So, using that line of thinking, the Bills are probably bottom 10 at best from a weapons-standpoint IRT talent. 
 

Thats not “enough” imo. 

[BADOLBILZ]

11 hours ago, MasterStrategist said:

Again, smug as usual.  I'm not drunk, but might need to after talking with you.

 

Someone might slap you upside the head if you talk to them like this.  

 

I trust Beane isn't "wasting a Josh Allen prime year", as you put it.  

 

You must not be so great at reading and comprehending the point.  I'm saying, you're already throwing in the towel on this WR group (again, wasting a Josh Allen prime season)...when we know you've been wrong plenty....you have major issues admitting that, but again my point is that Beane knows what he's doing and we have very good talent at the skill positions. 

 

My rationale for bringing up YOUR mistake, is that you talk in certainties/your opinion is gold.  Whenever someone challenges you:

Step 1: you bring your supporting statements

 

Step 2: Fail to listen or just plain disagree and dont respond to the posters point

 

Step 3: resort to petty comments/sarcasm

 

You've probably heard sarcasm is the weapon of the weak.

 

Beane/Brady know what they want and need at the skill spots.

 

 

I questioned your sobriety because of the ridiculous line of thought you are using.

 

Everybody makes some mistakes.........so we should trust this particular guy about a particular aspect of his job where he's been terrible?

 

Trust is earned.

 

Beane has been horrible both at finding free agent value signings at WR AND wrt projecting what his own players can do with expanded opportunity.

 

Combined he's like 0 for 15.

 

What has worked for him is adding players who have proven themselves and have done so most recently.

 

Diggs, Beasley, Brown and to a lesser extent Sanders.  

 

Their current WR corps is SUSPECT.  

 

Simple as that.  

 

[Einstein's Dog]

12 hours ago, BillsFanForever19 said:

 

It's only a "shocking" downgrade if you're looking at Madden Ratings or how exciting the star power looks on a piece of paper.

 

If you evaluate what this Offense looked like from the 2nd Half of last season through the playoffs, our Offense ran through Cook, Kincaid, and Shakir.

 

Which is him admitting that this is as close to a rebuild as it can get, while still maintaining a Franchise QB. So is he "really going to do a rebuild in the middle of Josh's prime?". By definition, it already *is* a rebuild. We didn't really have a choice with the cap situation we were in.

 

Like it or not, and many of us don't, it just is what it is. Regardless of whether or not you're willing to accept reality. 

It's not just a view from Madden that makes our WR room a huge downgrade - it's an opinion by a vast majority of impartial observers.  We're going from a $22M + $13M WRs to $8M + $3M.   Our top WR would be battling for the number 3 spot on numerous other teams - including two in our division.

 

Yes, we were able to do well in the second half when Diggs + Davis weren't doing well - but that doesn't mean you shouldn't try to replace at least one of them with established top tier talent.  I was hoping Beane would supply Brady with a full complement of offensive weapons.  We have the underneath hands guys and badly need some outside boundary WRs.

 

The idea of a rebuild when Josh is 28, really negatively affects my view Beane's job.  This idea that we don't have a choice is ridiculous.  And the cap situation is a direct result of prior moves Beane made.

 

Like it or not?  No, I don't like it.  I'm still in denial.

[Fr. Jerk]

Randy was dope, ya dig?

[folz]

18 hours ago, BADOLBILZ said:

Are you drunk? 

 

You are trying to point out that mistakes happen.........but that because Beane has "done more good than bad" as a GM that his WR decisions shouldn't be questioned?

 

What?

 

His WR choices were to trust that Robert Foster,  Gabe Davis, Lil Dummy, Trent Sherfield and Deonte Harty were all ready for much bigger roles.   None of them were.   And Dawson Knox failed to elevate his game despite great expectations as well.   He's 0 for forever in what he is apparently expecting of Khalil Shakir. 

 

This after the disasters of 2017 and 2018 with Jordan Matthews and Kelvin Benjamin and flyers on pedigree and past success like Corey Coleman, Jeremy Kerley, Terrelle Pryor etc..   

 

Beane's few starter successes at WR have come when he acquired Diggs, Brown and Beasley.........players all proven in starting roles, still consistent and fairly young.    

 

Those were players who projected to play well.........and whaddya know........they played well.

 

That's what I would trust.

 

Literally every flyer he's taken on a WR has FAILED........including Jamison Crowder.

 

But we are to TRUST that guys like MVS and Chase Claypool or KJ Hamler or Andy Isabella are going to bounce back when none of those players I mentioned did?

 

GTFOH 

 

To be fair, Crowder broke his leg in what game 3 or 4? Can't really pin that on Beane. We have no idea how Crowder would have worked out if he stayed healthy. And he was a good choice at the time to replace Beasley (Crowder was a very good slot player).

 

Look, I understand and agree with the argument that outside of getting Diggs, Beasley, and Brown, Beane's track record with WRs has not been good over his tenure in Buffalo and there were times that he should have put more investment there. But there are also some reasons for it too. The first two years he was here, he was rebuilding an entire team and obviously focused on getting his QB first (which took a lot of resources). Do you know how many pre-McDermott starters were still on the roster in 2019? ZERO. He couldn't just focus on WRs. Plus, the team was in cap trouble after Whaley left (so they didn't have many resources) and no FA players wanted to come to Buffalo.

 

There is context to everything and every move. It's easy to say just trade for Aiyuk or anyone else, but the reality of availability, compensation, how it affects the rest of the team-building, the cap, etc. all matters. I think where we go wrong is when either side of the argument goes to the extremes---like the Crowder example above, or acting like Gabe Davis and Dawson Knox were busts. No, they didn't elevate their games to where we hoped, but...

 

Gabe Davis 3,204 yards and 33 TDs (over 4 years)

Dawson Knox 3,241 yards and 28 TDs (over 5years). His yardage total for a TE is not top end, but he does have more TDs than all but 4 TEs over the last 5 years (Kelce, Kittle, Andrews, by a good bit, and TJ Hockenson has 1 more TD than Knox).

 

It was obviously time to move on from Gabe, but that is a lot of production still for a 4th round WR, and Knox didn't become a top TE, but by no means a bust for a 3rd rounder. 

 

You guys may think that we are crazy for thinking we might be ok at WR, and not dinging Beane for making a bigger move (to be fair, when they traded Diggs, I thought a bigger move at WR was coming too---I was thinking he might sell out in the draft to go up and get one of the top guys, but kind of glad he didn't). But I think it is just as strange to think that getting a safety wasn't important, when we just lost two All-Pro safeties and that position is extremely important to McD's defense. And even the backup 3T DT and RB #2 will get way more playing time (probably like 35-40% snap count this season) than another 3rd to 5th round WR would have. You can't go all out at one position and ignore others, imo.

 

I'm not saying Beane is perfect or never makes mistakes, or maybe even, doesn't have weaknesses at scouting particular positions, but I just come from a point of trying to understand why they made the decisions they did and trying to see how it could work, rather than assuming they got it wrong and it will fail. They know what offense Brady is installing, they know the direction they want to take the team, they understand all of the salaries and cap ramifications, etc., they've scouted all of the players. We all have our own opinions, of course, and I definitely don't agree with every move they make---but it's not unrealistic or Homerism to at least understand why they did what they did and want to see it play out first (yes, with some optimism).

 

Believe me, I understand the concern about the wide receivers, there is still just a lot of projection right now and no true #1---obviously they want Kincaid to fill that role. None of us knows how Coleman will be yet. Can Kincaid and Shakir step into bigger roles? Can Samuel play well and be that solid #2 or #3 in targets/receptions? Can MVS avoid the drops? Can Claypool or Hamler revive their careers? I don't think you guys are crazy for having concerns---I don't know, I just have a gut feeling that this time it will work out (maybe because I am not down on the Coleman pick, I really like Samuel as a player, and I do think Kincaid and Shakir can step up, with how the end of last season played out---but I get it, we've been burned before by guys not taking it to the next level). But, as I keep saying, what we did at least do in the WR room was get bigger, faster, better hands, and better red zone players than we had last year, and that can't all be bad. 

[Mikey152]

Ok, let's try something here...

 

Lets assume the Bills throw the ball ~550 times this year, and the target breakdown is something like:

 

Cook - 50

Shakir - 80

Samuel - 80

Coleman - 70

Knox - 50

Kincaid - 120

MVS - 50

Everyone else - 50

 

And everyone is around the same ypt as last season

 

Cook - 8.2 (410)

Shakir - 13.6 (led NFL among qualifiers) (1088)

Samuel - 6.7 (536)

Coleman - 9.2 (this was Gabe's) (644)

Knox - 5.2 (260)

Kincaid - 7.4 (888)

MVS - 7.5 (375)

Everyone else - 7 (350)

 

That puts Josh at 4,551 yards passing (8.2 ypa), which would be a career high on what is also his lowest attempts since 2019.  

 

Even if you see regression from Shakir and Coleman, that would likely be propped up by some positive regression from MVS (8.5 in 2022) Knox (8.0 in 2022) and Samuel (7.1 in 2022 and 8.8 in 2020 under Joe Brady)

 

I think a lot of you are underrating just how inefficient Diggs was last season with his targets. He was in line with a TE, not a #1 WR.

Edited June 4 by Mikey152

[MasterStrategist]

9 hours ago, FireChans said:

2022 was not “so-so.”

 

They had to call John Brown and Cole Beasley out of retirement mid-season. That’s a disaster.

 

It’s not about holding those past mistakes against Beane, it’s about recognizing a pattern. If a guy continually ***** up the WR position for 3 straight years, why should we have faith in year 4? Honestly.

We called on John Brown and Beas, they didn't eat up any significant snaps though.  So that's mute in my eyes.  Again, I think plain average.

 

What is the 3rd straight year?  2021?  Thought that was a strong group.

[Chaos]

16 minutes ago, MasterStrategist said:

So that's mute in my eyes.

Confused, does this make you blind or unable to talk?

[Buffalo716]

10 hours ago, FireChans said:

I’m not talking about Chase’s deal. I’m talking about his talent.

 

This whole, “we don’t know what the talent will be” line of optimism works to a point. But Shakir won’t be better than Chase. Samuel won’t either. Coleman is a wildcard but a probably not. 
 

So, using that line of thinking, the Bills are probably bottom 10 at best from a weapons-standpoint IRT talent. 
 

Thats not “enough” imo. 

You think Chase claypool is going to be our best receiver?

 

I bet he doesn't even end top three or four in Targets

Edited June 4 by Buffalo716

[FireChans]

32 minutes ago, MasterStrategist said:

We called on John Brown and Beas, they didn't eat up any significant snaps though.  So that's mute in my eyes.  Again, I think plain average.

 

What is the 3rd straight year?  2021?  Thought that was a strong group.

2021? The one where Emmanuel Sanders ran out of gas and had 148 yards through his last 6 games played? He was also inactive for 3 out of the last 4?

 

Yeah, not a strong group.

[FireChans]

1 hour ago, Buffalo716 said:

You think Chase claypool is going to be our best receiver?

 

I bet he doesn't even end top three or four in Targets

You gotta follow along better my dude. I was talking about Jamar Chase.

[Buffalo716]

3 minutes ago, FireChans said:

You gotta follow along better my dude. I was talking about Jamar Chase.

I'm not reading 12 pages of dialogue bro 

 

I'm on the last page and we just signed Chase claypool and people are talking about Chase....

 

Maybe if you said J'marr , I obviously would have recognized

 

[FireChans]

43 minutes ago, Buffalo716 said:

I'm not reading 12 pages of dialogue bro 

 

I'm on the last page and we just signed Chase claypool and people are talking about Chase....

 

Maybe if you said J'marr , I obviously would have recognized

 

The post you quoted had a quoted post talking about his deal with Cinci. In the post. On the same page.

[Buffalo716]

8 minutes ago, FireChans said:

The post you quoted had a quoted post talking about his deal with Cinci. In the post. On the same page.

Well I quoted you and it only said Chase's deal.. to which I thought it was Chase claypool ... I'm just skimming the last page

 

And then you were comparing Chase.. to Coleman and Samuel and shakir

 

Other bills players so rightfully I thought you were comparing our new Chase to our other players... I'm not reading replies of replies and as I said I did not even go back three pages 

 

I was just reading the last page and some replies and yours caught my attention... Saying J'marr would have instantly clear it up and I would have known what you were talking about 

 

I certainly agree Jmarr Chase is better than anybody we have

 

 

 

 

 

Edited June 5 by Buffalo716

[BADOLBILZ]

6 hours ago, folz said:

 

To be fair, Crowder broke his leg in what game 3 or 4? Can't really pin that on Beane. We have no idea how Crowder would have worked out if he stayed healthy. And he was a good choice at the time to replace Beasley (Crowder was a very good slot player).

 

Look, I understand and agree with the argument that outside of getting Diggs, Beasley, and Brown, Beane's track record with WRs has not been good over his tenure in Buffalo and there were times that he should have put more investment there. But there are also some reasons for it too. The first two years he was here, he was rebuilding an entire team and obviously focused on getting his QB first (which took a lot of resources). Do you know how many pre-McDermott starters were still on the roster in 2019? ZERO. He couldn't just focus on WRs. Plus, the team was in cap trouble after Whaley left (so they didn't have many resources) and no FA players wanted to come to Buffalo.

 

There is context to everything and every move. It's easy to say just trade for Aiyuk or anyone else, but the reality of availability, compensation, how it affects the rest of the team-building, the cap, etc. all matters. I think where we go wrong is when either side of the argument goes to the extremes---like the Crowder example above, or acting like Gabe Davis and Dawson Knox were busts. No, they didn't elevate their games to where we hoped, but...

 

Gabe Davis 3,204 yards and 33 TDs (over 4 years)

Dawson Knox 3,241 yards and 28 TDs (over 5years). His yardage total for a TE is not top end, but he does have more TDs than all but 4 TEs over the last 5 years (Kelce, Kittle, Andrews, by a good bit, and TJ Hockenson has 1 more TD than Knox).

 

It was obviously time to move on from Gabe, but that is a lot of production still for a 4th round WR, and Knox didn't become a top TE, but by no means a bust for a 3rd rounder. 

 

You guys may think that we are crazy for thinking we might be ok at WR, and not dinging Beane for making a bigger move (to be fair, when they traded Diggs, I thought a bigger move at WR was coming too---I was thinking he might sell out in the draft to go up and get one of the top guys, but kind of glad he didn't). But I think it is just as strange to think that getting a safety wasn't important, when we just lost two All-Pro safeties and that position is extremely important to McD's defense. And even the backup 3T DT and RB #2 will get way more playing time (probably like 35-40% snap count this season) than another 3rd to 5th round WR would have. You can't go all out at one position and ignore others, imo.

 

I'm not saying Beane is perfect or never makes mistakes, or maybe even, doesn't have weaknesses at scouting particular positions, but I just come from a point of trying to understand why they made the decisions they did and trying to see how it could work, rather than assuming they got it wrong and it will fail. They know what offense Brady is installing, they know the direction they want to take the team, they understand all of the salaries and cap ramifications, etc., they've scouted all of the players. We all have our own opinions, of course, and I definitely don't agree with every move they make---but it's not unrealistic or Homerism to at least understand why they did what they did and want to see it play out first (yes, with some optimism).

 

Believe me, I understand the concern about the wide receivers, there is still just a lot of projection right now and no true #1---obviously they want Kincaid to fill that role. None of us knows how Coleman will be yet. Can Kincaid and Shakir step into bigger roles? Can Samuel play well and be that solid #2 or #3 in targets/receptions? Can MVS avoid the drops? Can Claypool or Hamler revive their careers? I don't think you guys are crazy for having concerns---I don't know, I just have a gut feeling that this time it will work out (maybe because I am not down on the Coleman pick, I really like Samuel as a player, and I do think Kincaid and Shakir can step up, with how the end of last season played out---but I get it, we've been burned before by guys not taking it to the next level). But, as I keep saying, what we did at least do in the WR room was get bigger, faster, better hands, and better red zone players than we had last year, and that can't all be bad. 

 

 

 

Like I said.......Beane is like 0-15 in cases where he's expected a player to elevate his game from limited to an expanded role OR when he took a flyer on WR's who at one time were once considered high pedigree or were once productive but weren't productive the season prior.

 

And leaning into his judgement on those things that he's always been wrong about is the primary strategy wrt addressing the WR position this offseason.

 

Calling 0 for forever "not perfect" is a bit of an understatement though,  dontcha think?.