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Good analysis of Trevor Lawrence in The Athletic by Randy Mueller


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21 hours ago, Mr. WEO said:

one of the biggest let downs in years.  tank for Trevor...

Considering the rest of the 2021 QBs and who was available in 2022, tanking for Trevor worked out a lot better than the other 1st  round options. 

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21 hours ago, Mr. WEO said:

one of the biggest let downs in years.  tank for Trevor...

 

Trevor joins a long list of highly anticipated collegiate QBs who have underwhelmed in the NFL.   I think Andrew Luck came the closest to actually being the "savior" he was predicted to be.  I think "lose out for Luck" might have been the slogan, and certainly Indy was accused by some fans of tanking the 2011 season in order to get Luck.  Unfortunately, injuries short-circuited his career, so he didn't really work out long term. 

 

If you look at the careers of the QBs taken #1 overall since 2000 -- Michael Vick, David Carr, Carson Palmer, Eli Manning, Alex Smith, JaMarcus Russell, Matthew Stafford, Sam Bradford, Cam Newton, Andrew Luck, Jameis Winston, Jared Goff, Baker Mayfield, Kyler Murray, Joe Burrow, Trevor Lawrence, and Bryce Young -- most have been underwhelming as NFL QBs compared to what was expected of them.

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20 hours ago, warrior9 said:

TL's career was started with Urban Meyer and then he was fired mid-season. That is a VERY tough way to start a career. In his first year with Pedersen he showed a ton of growth and then dealt with injuries last year. 

 

Fields had the same head coach his entire tenure with Chicago. I think he had the same OC, as well. 

Fields was drafted by Nagy, who was fired after his rookie year 

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20 hours ago, PBF81 said:

 

Imagine if everyone else that didn't care also posted that.  

 

Just sayin'.  

 

😏

 

 

I only care the tiniest bit, 

does that count?

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3 hours ago, Albany,n.y. said:

Considering the rest of the 2021 QBs and who was available in 2022, tanking for Trevor worked out a lot better than the other 1st  round options. 

 

none of them were "generational talents" teams would tank for, so they don't matter in this conversation.

 

No one, during his final college season, was saying, "well....he's probably the best in his class entering the draft"....

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22 minutes ago, Don Otreply said:

I only care the tiniest bit, 

does that count?

 

Sure, of course.  Any post that doesn't directly or indirectly pertain to the topic at hand counts.  :D  

 

 

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2 hours ago, SoTier said:

 

Trevor joins a long list of highly anticipated collegiate QBs who have underwhelmed in the NFL.   I think Andrew Luck came the closest to actually being the "savior" he was predicted to be.  I think "lose out for Luck" might have been the slogan, and certainly Indy was accused by some fans of tanking the 2011 season in order to get Luck.  Unfortunately, injuries short-circuited his career, so he didn't really work out long term. 

 

If you look at the careers of the QBs taken #1 overall since 2000 -- Michael Vick, David Carr, Carson Palmer, Eli Manning, Alex Smith, JaMarcus Russell, Matthew Stafford, Sam Bradford, Cam Newton, Andrew Luck, Jameis Winston, Jared Goff, Baker Mayfield, Kyler Murray, Joe Burrow, Trevor Lawrence, and Bryce Young -- most have been underwhelming as NFL QBs compared to what was expected of them.

 

Since 1990, the SB has included at least 1 #1 QB pick 18 times.

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On 5/31/2024 at 5:47 AM, dorquemada said:

yeah guy always saves his best for when they play the bills.  glad they're not playing in London or on mars or something this year at least


We’ve been gifted relief of an automatic loss. We should rejoice. 

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7 hours ago, machine gun kelly said:

I don’t have a NY Times subscription so can’t read it, but I’m assuming he’s underwhelmed.  If anyone has context with more detail, meaning a summary of the comments is appreciated.

 

K.  I looked for a way to share a "gift article" and didn't see so I'll try (it's The Athletic, btw, which can be trialed with or without NYT).

 

Article is by Randy Mueller, former pro personnel director for the Seahawks and GM of the Saints (2000-2001) and Dolphins (2005-2007).  After that he had a 10 year run as "Senior executive for football operations" for the Chargers then moved on to the XFL.  I give this as context, because while he legit knows some football, it's also notable that the NFL stopped paying him for his NFL talent evaluation ability back in 2007.

 

He starts off noting that Trevor Lawrence was a consensus top pick with everything to like about him, coming out of Clemson - "Size, arm, athletic ability, accuracy..intangibles".  He says that at the time of the draft, his take was "He’s going to need to be reprogrammed from Clemson’s RPO-heavy, simplistic passing game and be taught an NFL passing game from the ground up, conceptually.", but of course, that's true of a lot of QBs.  But Lawrence hasn't really hit yet, so what's the problem?

 

He writes off Lawrence rookie year with Urban Meyer and focuses on 2023

Quote

The last two seasons have clearly been better. Lawrence’s passer rating climbed to 95.2 (tied for ninth best) in 2022, although it dropped to 88.5 (21st) in 2023.

Let’s focus on just 2023 for a minute. Lawrence completed 65.6 percent of his passes, which ranked 14th. He threw 14 interceptions (tied for fourth most) and had 21 turnovers, which was third most behind only Sam Howell — who is already on his second team — and Josh Allen, who, good as he is, is a human carnival ride.

Some of the biggest concerns came in high-leverage moments. Ten of Lawrence’s turnovers came on third down, the most in the NFL, per TruMedia. He converted just 38 percent of third downs, ranking alongside Desmond Ridder, Daniel Jones and Joshua Dobbs and well behind league leader Jalen Hurts (48 percent). On third downs in the fourth quarter, Lawrence completed 58.1 percent of his passes. League leaders in that category were in the mid-to-high 70s, led by Kyler Murray (79.2 percent).

 

He says it's not the scheme:

Quote

For comparison’s sake, I went back to the Eagles with Pederson and Carson Wentz. In 2017, when the Eagles won the Super Bowl despite Wentz’s late-season knee injury, he finished with a passer rating of 101.9 and 10 total turnovers (again, Lawrence had 10 on third down in 2023 alone!), along with a 65 percent completion rate on third downs. That was peak Wentz but worth noting because the offense was similar in design.

 

He thinks Lawrence lacks patience in the pocket:

Quote

Lawrence seems to want to flush from the pocket as soon as possible instead of stepping up. Those muddy pockets are not for everyone, even if you are 6-foot-6. It’s worth noting he battled knee, ankle and shoulder injuries during the 2023 season, missing one game and being listed as questionable for five others. That certainly could have affected his comfort in the pocket.

I don’t think Lawrence is struggling with a lack of processing. It’s often a lack of patience to sit in there and let targets declare. Sometimes, his best options did not declare until late in the down. (......)

It appears Lawrence wants his targets defined quickly, which limits the offense, in my opinion. Having patience, even as pressure is coming, is what separates the good from the great at the NFL level. While Lawrence is an exceptional athlete, he too often defaults to using that athleticism early in the process, moving off his spot.

 

The same was noted of Pat Mahomes early in his career and the same could be said of Josh Allen and Lamar Jackson, all among the top passers of today.  So to some extent, I think this reflects a league change from the classic pocket passer (like Peyton Manning, Matt Ryan, Philip Rivers etc) to a more athletic "extend the play, create something" type QB.  From that lens, the problem wouldn't be Lawrence bailing from the pocket, but the lack of secondary route concepts/scramble drills in the offense, and/or inability to either exploit them or create with his feet.

 

Quote

I think his relatively low completion rate was more a product of his decision-making than a lack of accuracy. I would love to see him take the checkdown more often, rather than rushing to the decision to make harder and sometimes riskier throws downfield. Sometimes by looking deep, you can see short. He hasn’t perfected that yet.

Lawrence seldom gets to a second or third read because he doesn’t give the big picture of the play design enough time to reveal itself. He will look to a second option at times, but it’s just not often enough. Other times, he looks, but he doesn’t see, which is an important distinction. It sounds simple, but many quarterbacks struggle to throw to an open receiver they are staring right at. This issue can be fatal if not corrected.

 

He concludes

Quote

His talent has taken him this far, but he is still learning to play quarterback after three years in the NFL. He has not advanced his trade enough to consistently operate at a high level and make people better around him. I feel as though he is executing the offense as the coaches ask but giving them very little beyond what the design and play calls are meant to produce. He has to improve his decision-making, especially when under pressure and on third downs, and take care of the ball.

Lawrence has the potential to be a more athletic Joe Burrow, but to this point, I see a bigger, faster version of Daniel Jones. The upside is still clear, but he is now eligible for a contract extension, and the top of the quarterback market is now well over $50 million per year. At that cost, the Jaguars would be vastly overpaying for what they are currently getting, and speculative stocks cause sleepless nights.

 

 

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Lawrence and Tua are not worth the $50 million per going price tag but I hope they both get it. It will show how smart/dumb their front office is...

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10 hours ago, Beck Water said:

From The Athletic:

 

I would love to see [Trevor Lawrence] take the checkdown more often, rather than rushing to the decision to make harder and sometimes riskier throws downfield.

 

Hmm. I'm trying to think of some other QB about whom that statement might also be true. Hmm. Hmm.

 

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On 5/31/2024 at 4:50 PM, MiracleAtRich1393 said:

DaQuan & Milano going down early in that game may have had something to do with it 😭


I wish just once we’d be lose some guys or get down and McD would just say, let’s rip and start attacking and being more unpredictable instead of going into safe mode.

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When I read the article two things struck me first the authors comments about Lawrence's development.

I do, however, remember thinking this at the time: He’s going to need to be reprogrammed from Clemson’s RPO-heavy, simplistic passing game and be taught an NFL passing game from the ground up, conceptually.

 

2nd comment made was:

 

He’s not even the best quarterback in the AFC South — that would be the Texans’ C.J. Stroud, last year’s No. 2 pick and Offensive Rookie of the Year.

 

To me Stroud is still a bit of a TBD.  Yes he played better last year, but there have been a number of rookie wonders over the years, lets see how he looks this year and even the year after that.

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