BillsFan130 Posted May 31 Share Posted May 31 (edited) 2 hours ago, BullBuchanan said: Well, on one hand you have a guy in Gabe Davis who has 1600 yards and 14 TDs over the last two seasons, and on the other you have guys like John Metchie, Tyquan Thornton, D'Wayne Eskridge and a whole host of other guys most people don't even remember are in the league. If you need a guy to be your #2 and you need it to work, you go out and get the guy who's already shown he can play. If you can afford wasting a #2 on one of those guys or even a Chase Claypool/Skyy Moore/KJ Hamler, etc then maybe you take the risk that a draft pick will come in and be immediately successful. Ok but we also can say that about any position. The draft is a crap shoot as we know. There have also been tons of massive success stories in the mid rounds. Higgins, Deebo, Kupp, Aj Brown, Metcalf. The list goes on and on. Can always pick a receiver in the 1st round as well if a team really values WR2, I was more just giving an example with 2nd round. To me I'm taking the risk of drafting a young guy and maybe doubling down with a cheap vet opposed to paying Gabe 12 mil per year . That just doesn't move the needle for me Edited May 31 by BillsFan130 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rampant Buffalo Posted May 31 Share Posted May 31 1 hour ago, Shaw66 said: All of the above. I think if you're a GM and you don't have one of the ten or so guys who are in the first two categories I described, all of your plans have to be driven by how you're going to get a QB. Maybe you're drafting one, maybe you're getting a free agent, so you're thinking a lot about how to get a top draft pick and how to put yourself in position to sign the occasional free agent. The free agent route means you need cap room, so if I'm looking for my QB, I'm not using up cap space on a Gabriel Davis. The Broncos haven't had much success, but I applaud them for being active. They swung and missed on Russell Wilson, but I think that their only choice without a QB was to take the best swings you could. However the Bills got into the situation, they needed to be swinging the year they drafted Manuel. The Bills took another swing on Tyrod (which was sort of a wasted swing - journeymen QBs usually just waste playing time that could be used on anyone with upstate. The Broncos, for example, took a swing on Siemian. It was also a miss, but at least it was a guy with real upside. I think every season the Dolphins stick with Tua is a season they aren't actively looking for the right guy. Extending him means they won't have cap space to be in the bidding when a free agent comes along. If I ran the Dolphins, for example, I would have been in the bidding for Aaron Rodgers. I just don't see any point in building a team around a guy I don't think I can with. I have to field a team, of course, but my team-building should not create impediments to find the right QB - for the long term I can't afford to restrict my draft picks or my cap space. It's just how I think an NFL team should be run. Obviously, the Dolphins think otherwise, and they have a smart coach and probably a smart GM, so what do I know? I agree with the vast majority of what you've written. But let's say a QB just doesn't have it, and it's clear from the tape he doesn't have it. At that point, it's an error and a failure of discipline to waste significant resources acquiring that QB. When I watched Manuel's college highlights, I saw nothing special. His highlight throws were throws I'd expect any average starting college QB to make. There is no reason to throw a first round pick at a guy like that, regardless of circumstances. In general, you'll get farther by seeing things as they are, rather than as you would wish them to be. That's also why I give zero credit to the Broncos for having traded away major resources for Russell Wilson. He'd been washed up for a few years prior to that trade, and the tape made that clear. Another example of wishful thinking was the Losman pick. Like Manuel, Losman had great physical tools. Other than those tools, there really wasn't a reason to pick him before round 5. Let's say Tom Donahoe had been a little less wishful in his analysis of Losman. That would potentially have pushed him in one of two directions. 1) He trades up for Roethlisberger, even if he's not happy about Houston's asking price for the pick. 2) He waits a year, and drafts Aaron Rodgers in 2005. Granted, he would have had other options for the QB position, beyond just those two things. If he hadn't drafted Losman, maybe he would have found some other way to mess up the QB position instead. While an accurate evaluation of Losman wouldn't have guaranteed success, at least it would have moved him a big step closer. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TBBills Fan Posted May 31 Share Posted May 31 Teams are spending between 15-50 million this year on their WR room. I'd rather have 4 10 million per year guys than a 25 million per year guy and 3 5 million per year guys Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shaw66 Posted May 31 Share Posted May 31 42 minutes ago, SoCal Deek said: Is there a free agent you think they should target? The obvious challenge is trying to time it out so as to coincide with your WR contracts. Otherwise you end up on a never ending teeter totter. No, I don't have a free agent they should target. There isn't one now. But as I said, they missed out on Rodgers. Stafford and Goff were available. I was talking more in general. I think if you don't have the right QB, and I don't think the Dolphins do, then every move you consider has to be evaluated in terms of how it affects your ability to get a QB. You have to be looking at every QB in the league who might be available, and you have to be studying every draft class. If the next good QB draft class is next year or two years from now, you need to be planning to get within the top 10, better top 5, picks. If you see what looks like the right QB coming in free agency, you need to be planning your cap space to be able to be in the bidding war for him. After you have all those plans, draft and FA, in place, then you do the best you can with whatever picks and cap space you have left. QB has to be your number 1 priority, and you can't make any moves that will limit your ability to go after a QB who looks like he'll be a keeper. From what I understand from posts in this thread, with Hill's contract, now Waddle's contract and what's likely to be Tua's contract, the Dolphins will be all in on Tua, because they won't have the resources to get a top QB for several years. They'll be good enough to be outside the top 10 draft choices, and even if they did draft a QB, their cap situation will limit their ability to acquire other players to build with, because they'll have a lot of cap tied up in Tua. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullBuchanan Posted May 31 Share Posted May 31 32 minutes ago, BillsFan130 said: Ok but we also can say that about any position. The draft is a crap shoot as we know. There have also been tons of massive success stories in the mid rounds. Higgins, Deebo, Kupp, Aj Brown, Metcalf. The list goes on and on. Can always pick a receiver in the 1st round as well if a team really values WR2, I was more just giving an example with 2nd round. To me I'm taking the risk of drafting a young guy and maybe doubling down with a cheap vet opposed to paying Gabe 12 mil per year . That just doesn't move the needle for me I guess you could, but in this case you're trying to justify it for a receiver and I'm providing a counter argument why it's wrong. WRs might have the most severe bust result in the league. There are guys that are drafted very high that don't even get on the field in a pro career. Guys that generate less than 1000 yards combined on a 4 year deal before they wash out of the league. These aren't isolated cases either - they happen constantly. Yea, it really hurts when QBs bust, but they rarely bust so hard they don't even produce something for you and they usually get a multi-year shot. You get one every couple of years (Lynch, Rosen, Kizer(2nd), Hackenberg(2nd)). You have WRs drafted in the 2nd round as recently as two-three years ago that might already be done having not hit top 100 yardage numbers in any season. That's really bad, like worse than Johnny Manziel bad. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sleeby Posted May 31 Share Posted May 31 46 minutes ago, BullBuchanan said: Yea, it really hurts when QBs bust, but they rarely bust so hard they don't even produce something for you Unless you're the Browns or Jets. Lol Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BillsFan130 Posted May 31 Share Posted May 31 1 hour ago, BullBuchanan said: I guess you could, but in this case you're trying to justify it for a receiver and I'm providing a counter argument why it's wrong. WRs might have the most severe bust result in the league. There are guys that are drafted very high that don't even get on the field in a pro career. Guys that generate less than 1000 yards combined on a 4 year deal before they wash out of the league. These aren't isolated cases either - they happen constantly. Yea, it really hurts when QBs bust, but they rarely bust so hard they don't even produce something for you and they usually get a multi-year shot. You get one every couple of years (Lynch, Rosen, Kizer(2nd), Hackenberg(2nd)). You have WRs drafted in the 2nd round as recently as two-three years ago that might already be done having not hit top 100 yardage numbers in any season. That's really bad, like worse than Johnny Manziel bad. I understand that. But again, that goes for any position. WRs aren't the only position that bust in the draft lol. Every single position in every round have flops Lets put it this way: I much prefer what the bills did signing a vet in Samuel and drafting Coleman Opposed to paying Gabe all that money. Signing Samuel hedges your bet a bit Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullBuchanan Posted May 31 Share Posted May 31 2 minutes ago, BillsFan130 said: I understand that. But again, that goes for any position. WRs aren't the only position that bust in the draft lol. Every single position in every round have flops Lets put it this way: I much prefer what the bills did signing a vet in Samuel and drafting Coleman Opposed to paying Gabe all that money. Signing Samuel hedges your bet a bit No, it really doesn't. I indicated why. It's not about whether or not positions flop int he draft, it's what it means to flop. Moving on... I'm also glad they didn't sign Gabe, but that's because I view him as a one-trick pony and a liability in our offense. I wasn't opposed to paying Diggs, and I wouldn't be opposed to paying a guy like Aiyuk or Higgins. I was however strongly against the Hardy signing last year, because again one trick pony who wasn't that good at the one trick. I like the Samuel deal as I think he's a better player than Davis on a much cheaper deal. If we still had a guy like Diggs, then signing a guy like Samuel for medium money while drafting a potential #2 behind him is an ideal way to hedge your bet. Unfortunately, that isn't really our situation as we're missing a #1. As for Miami, they're in an enviable position of having two #1s right now. They could have let Waddle walk, but then they would need to spend a premium pick on the position next year with a prayer that it works out. Instead, they'll pay him now, and most likely look to move on from hill in the near future and try to backfill a #2 instead - which is a much better position to be in at the position than where Buffalo is right now. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
julian Posted May 31 Share Posted May 31 (edited) 4 hours ago, sleeby said: Can't speak for the person you replied to but if not adopted then that many crotch fruits is disgusting. Human population first reached 1 billion 1800AD; 2 billion 1930, 4 billion 1976 and 8 billion today. Exponential growth is the root cause of all of our current problems. There are more humans alive and eating and breathing today, may 31, 2024 than have ever lived in the million years which came before us. lol… I’m sure you coming from an honest place of concern, but I’ll just suggest you do some research on human population growth, population growth is in massive decline, people are just not having children and if the current trends hold it spells big problems. “Population growth has declined mainly due to the abrupt decline in the global total fertility rate, from 5.3 in 1963 to 2.3 in 2021. The decline in the total fertility rate has occurred in every region of the world and is a result of a process known as demographic transition”. The old myth of too many people not enough resources is the exact opposite of reality. Edited May 31 by julian 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrW Posted June 1 Share Posted June 1 (edited) 3 hours ago, julian said: lol… I’m sure you coming from an honest place of concern, but I’ll just suggest you do some research on human population growth, population growth is in massive decline, people are just not having children and if the current trends hold it spells big problems. “Population growth has declined mainly due to the abrupt decline in the global total fertility rate, from 5.3 in 1963 to 2.3 in 2021. The decline in the total fertility rate has occurred in every region of the world and is a result of a process known as demographic transition”. The old myth of too many people not enough resources is the exact opposite of reality. Most predictions have the global population still increasing from the current 8 billion to about 10 billion in 2080, before growth levels off. BTW, I am still puzzled how we got to the topic of population growth in a discussion of Waddle. Is he responsible for it? Edited June 1 by DrW 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
julian Posted June 1 Share Posted June 1 17 minutes ago, DrW said: Most predictions have the global population still increasing from the current 8 billion to about 10 billion in 2080, before growth levels off. BTW, I am still puzzled how we got to the topic of population growth in a discussion of Waddle. Is he responsible for it? lol strange turns they topics take at times… the point remains the same.. if trends continue the population will decrease and there’s no signs of people reversing course and having large families once again, the “too many people, not enough resources’ narrative is just false. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullBuchanan Posted June 1 Share Posted June 1 8 hours ago, julian said: but I’ll just suggest you do some research on human population growth, population growth is in massive decline, people are just not having children This is a very, very good thing for everyone besides people (very few) that derive their wealth from a growing population. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
julian Posted June 1 Share Posted June 1 10 minutes ago, BullBuchanan said: This is a very, very good thing for everyone besides people (very few) that derive their wealth from a growing population. You’re unwillingness to procreate is probably helping society, just not for the reasons you suspect. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullBuchanan Posted June 1 Share Posted June 1 9 minutes ago, julian said: You’re unwillingness to procreate is probably helping society, just not for the reasons you suspect. Ah yes, ad hominems - the desperate flail of a defeated man. I already gave you the research. Do with it what you will. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buffalo_Stampede Posted June 1 Share Posted June 1 12 hours ago, TBBills Fan said: Teams are spending between 15-50 million this year on their WR room. I'd rather have 4 10 million per year guys than a 25 million per year guy and 3 5 million per year guys You need someone that can get open without schemes. Elite TE with a bunch of 2’s and 3’s at WR is a good way to go. Having an elite TE is proven to be successful for multiple teams. It’ll be interesting to see where TE contracts go from here. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullBuchanan Posted June 1 Share Posted June 1 26 minutes ago, Buffalo_Stampede said: You need someone that can get open without schemes. Elite TE with a bunch of 2’s and 3’s at WR is a good way to go. Having an elite TE is proven to be successful for multiple teams. It’ll be interesting to see where TE contracts go from here. Elite TEs don't exactly grow on trees. There have been a handful of those guys over the last 20 years. It doesn't stop teams from trying, though. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GunnerBill Posted June 1 Share Posted June 1 15 hours ago, BillsFan130 said: Ok but we also can say that about any position. The draft is a crap shoot as we know. There have also been tons of massive success stories in the mid rounds. Higgins, Deebo, Kupp, Aj Brown, Metcalf. The list goes on and on. Can always pick a receiver in the 1st round as well if a team really values WR2, I was more just giving an example with 2nd round. To me I'm taking the risk of drafting a young guy and maybe doubling down with a cheap vet opposed to paying Gabe 12 mil per year . That just doesn't move the needle for me That is exactly why the teams with rookie QBs value those mid tier WR2s. Because you need certainty. It doesn't stop you drafting one as well. Indeed that is how the Bills got Gabe. John Brown was their #2 for their 3rd year QB and they took a shot at a drafted guy too. I don't see that market changing. Teams with QBs on rookie deals will continue to sign established vet WR2s to mid tier deals unless something drastic happens to disrupt the model (CBA changes and/or modifications to the way the cap / free agency works). Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buffalo_Stampede Posted June 1 Share Posted June 1 5 hours ago, BullBuchanan said: Elite TEs don't exactly grow on trees. There have been a handful of those guys over the last 20 years. It doesn't stop teams from trying, though. Oh I know. Kincaid has a long way to go to be in a category of the elite TEs. But if we even think of Carolina when McDermott was there. Greg Olsen was their WR1 for many seasons. Not sure if Olsen is an elite TE. He had a few elite TE seasons though. He’s never really mentioned with Kelce, Gronk, and those types. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Captain Hindsight Posted June 1 Share Posted June 1 10 hours ago, julian said: lol strange turns they topics take at times… the point remains the same.. if trends continue the population will decrease and there’s no signs of people reversing course and having large families once again, the “too many people, not enough resources’ narrative is just false. Is that why housing is so cheap right now? 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BillsFan130 Posted June 1 Share Posted June 1 3 hours ago, GunnerBill said: That is exactly why the teams with rookie QBs value those mid tier WR2s. Because you need certainty. It doesn't stop you drafting one as well. Indeed that is how the Bills got Gabe. John Brown was their #2 for their 3rd year QB and they took a shot at a drafted guy too. I don't see that market changing. Teams with QBs on rookie deals will continue to sign established vet WR2s to mid tier deals unless something drastic happens to disrupt the model (CBA changes and/or modifications to the way the cap / free agency works). Maybe it's not going to drop like crazy. But it already has kind of stabilized. Here are a few examples: 2019- Adam Humphries 4 years at 36 mil 2022- Jacobi Meyers- 3 years 33 2023- Gabe Davis- 3 years 39 With the cap sky rocketing, that's pretty much a lateral move. And Gabe/Meyers were more productive than Humphries. Compare that to I believe Julio who got 3 years 66 which was the highest in the game in 2019. Whats Jefferson gonna make, 35 per year? Top guys have exploded. Mid guys have already started to stabilize 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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