Waddle gets paid

[GunnerBill]

9 hours ago, Shaw66 said:

I think Tua is a system QB who's fine when he can run the offense on script and make quick throws.  He's really good at that.  But when the play has to be extended, he's really poor.  Six to ten plays a game, maybe more, the play demands that your QB be creative.   Mahomes and Allen are great at it.   Goff is okay,  Tua isn't even okay.  On top of that, he's an injury risk.  I think it's five-year mistake to give him a big second contract.  He's going to disappoint them, and when they figure that out, it will be too late.  

 

 

Goff is as bad as Tua in genuinely "off script" situations and I say that as someone who has always argued Jared Goff is underrated by most football fans. I think the difference between Goff and Tua isn't "off script" so much as it is "beyond first read." If a play totally breaks down they are both stuffed. But with Goff that only happens really if you get early pressure. It is why being in Detroit behind the best bookend tackles in the NFL is perfect for him. With Tua it happens if you can take his first read away and make him get to his 2nd or 3rd read. He doesn't process quickly enough to do that and at that stage the play is basically broken and he is in trouble. I remember that game in Buffalo early last year and those first two drives Tua actually made a couple of nice plays in that situation where the Bills were right there and just couldn't make a play on the ball. I said then in the GDT - "he won't make those plays all day." And after those first two drives he didn't. The Bills did. And they won in a canter. 

[Green Lightning]

22 hours ago, The Wiz said:

Soon?

 

They are projected at -6m right now for next year without Waddles contract and Tua extension.

 

They are screwed.

Cap is not real claim in 3-2-1...

[BillsFan130]

6 hours ago, Rampant Buffalo said:

 

In no way, shape, or form do I see a valid comparison between WRs and RBs.

 

Will the middle market guys suffer five years down the line? I guess we'll have to wait five years to see! As for Gabe Davis himself: he just made bank, and is now significantly overpaid.

 

The top guys I 100 percent agree with you.

 

For the middle guys it's 50/50 for me.

 

Even right now- Would you rather someone like Gabe Davis at 12 mil (or whatever he's making) or draft a rookie in the 2nd round at a few million per year to hopefully be your number 2 WR for the next 4 years? 

 

I would choose option B, but those ^ are the decisions GMs will have to ask themselves going forward 

Edited May 31 by BillsFan130

[Buckets]

23 hours ago, FireChans said:

 

Don't care 

[GunnerBill]

39 minutes ago, BillsFan130 said:

The top guys I 100 percent agree with you.

 

For the middle guys it's 50/50 for me.

 

Even right now- Would you rather someone like Gabe Davis at 12 mil (or whatever he's making) or draft a rookie in the 2nd round at a few million per year to hopefully be your number 2 WR for the next 4 years? 

 

I would choose option B, but those ^ are the decisions GMs will have to ask themselves going forward 

 

The market for the proven thing, decent not great, #2 receivers like Gabe Davis is, and will continue to be, teams with QBs on rookie deals. 

[Shaw66]

3 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

 

Goff is as bad as Tua in genuinely "off script" situations and I say that as someone who has always argued Jared Goff is underrated by most football fans. I think the difference between Goff and Tua isn't "off script" so much as it is "beyond first read." If a play totally breaks down they are both stuffed. But with Goff that only happens really if you get early pressure. It is why being in Detroit behind the best bookend tackles in the NFL is perfect for him. With Tua it happens if you can take his first read away and make him get to his 2nd or 3rd read. He doesn't process quickly enough to do that and at that stage the play is basically broken and he is in trouble. I remember that game in Buffalo early last year and those first two drives Tua actually made a couple of nice plays in that situation where the Bills were right there and just couldn't make a play on the ball. I said then in the GDT - "he won't make those plays all day." And after those first two drives he didn't. The Bills did. And they won in a canter. 

Thanks.   I hadn't focused on it in that detail, but I agree.   That's how I see Goff, too.  For me, Goff is very good until he isn't, and that's off-script - he just isn't very good when he has to create, or to continue the script metaphor, when he has to ad lib.  To say differently what you said about Tua, to me he looks like a college QB executing a highly scripted offense where the first or second option always is open:  drop, look, throw.  If something tells him not to throw, the probability of success on the play goes down dramatically.  It's almost as though Goff knows the whole script, and Tua memorized only the first few lines. 

 

Goff isn't my cup of tea, but at least I can get why the Lions signed him.  If I were the Dolphins, I would be giving no thought to a big deal for deal.  Painful as it is, scary as the future without a QB may look, I'd be moving on from Tua and getting to work finding a guy I think I can win with.  Every year spent with Tua is a year the team is not moving toward a championship.

32 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

The market for the proven thing, decent not great, #2 receivers like Gabe Davis is, and will continue to be, teams with QBs on rookie deals. 

Exactly.  If you have your QB on his second deal, you can't afford Davis.  If you have no QB, it just make sense to spend on a Davis.  

[SoCal Deek]

17 minutes ago, Shaw66 said:

Thanks.   I hadn't focused on it in that detail, but I agree.   That's how I see Goff, too.  For me, Goff is very good until he isn't, and that's off-script - he just isn't very good when he has to create, or to continue the script metaphor, when he has to ad lib.  To say differently what you said about Tua, to me he looks like a college QB executing a highly scripted offense where the first or second option always is open:  drop, look, throw.  If something tells him not to throw, the probability of success on the play goes down dramatically.  It's almost as though Goff knows the whole script, and Tua memorized only the first few lines. 

 

Goff isn't my cup of tea, but at least I can get why the Lions signed him.  If I were the Dolphins, I would be giving no thought to a big deal for deal.  Painful as it is, scary as the future without a QB may look, I'd be moving on from Tua and getting to work finding a guy I think I can win with.  Every year spent with Tua is a year the team is not moving toward a championship.

Exactly.  If you have your QB on his second deal, you can't afford Davis.  If you have no QB, it just make sense to spend on a Davis.  

So if you are the Dolphins GM you’d be drafting a QB? Seems like you’d be stuck in a mid-late round one draft pick. Similar to the spot the Bills were stuck in for a decade. Or….is there a free agent you have your eye on? 

[BillsFan130]

1 hour ago, GunnerBill said:

 

The market for the proven thing, decent not great, #2 receivers like Gabe Davis is, and will continue to be, teams with QBs on rookie deals. 

Maybe. I'm not saying you're wrong. But the middling market for receivers have already kind of stabilized.

 

We will see where it goes the next few years or so

[BullBuchanan]

2 hours ago, BillsFan130 said:

The top guys I 100 percent agree with you.

 

For the middle guys it's 50/50 for me.

 

Even right now- Would you rather someone like Gabe Davis at 12 mil (or whatever he's making) or draft a rookie in the 2nd round at a few million per year to hopefully be your number 2 WR for the next 4 years? 

 

I would choose option B, but those ^ are the decisions GMs will have to ask themselves going forward 

Well, on one hand you have a guy in Gabe Davis who has 1600 yards and 14 TDs over the last two seasons, and on the other you have guys like John Metchie, Tyquan Thornton, D'Wayne Eskridge and a whole host of other guys most people don't even remember are in the league. If you need a guy to be your #2 and you need it to work, you go out and get the guy who's already shown he can play. If you can afford wasting a #2 on one of those guys or even a Chase Claypool/Skyy Moore/KJ Hamler, etc then maybe you take the risk that a draft pick will come in and be immediately successful.

[Shaw66]

1 hour ago, SoCal Deek said:

So if you are the Dolphins GM you’d be drafting a QB? Seems like you’d be stuck in a mid-late round one draft pick. Similar to the spot the Bills were stuck in for a decade. Or….is there a free agent you have your eye on? 

All of the above.  I think if you're a GM and you don't have one of the ten or so guys who are in the first two categories I described, all of your plans have to be driven by how you're going to get a QB.   Maybe you're drafting one, maybe you're getting a free agent, so you're thinking a lot about how to get a top draft pick and how to put yourself in position to sign the occasional free agent.  The free agent route means you need cap room, so if I'm looking for my QB, I'm not using up cap space on a Gabriel Davis.   

 

The Broncos haven't had much success, but I applaud them for being active.   They swung and missed on Russell Wilson, but I think that their only choice without a QB was to take the best swings you could.  However the Bills got into the situation, they needed to be swinging the year they drafted Manuel.   The Bills took another swing on Tyrod (which was sort of a wasted swing - journeymen QBs usually just waste playing time that could be used on anyone with upstate.   The Broncos, for example, took a swing on Siemian.  It was also a miss, but at least it was a guy with real upside.  

 

I think every season the Dolphins stick with Tua is a season they aren't actively looking for the right guy.  Extending him means they won't have cap space to be in the bidding when a free agent comes along.   

 

If I ran the Dolphins,  for example, I would have been in the bidding for Aaron Rodgers.    

 

I just don't see any point in building a team around a guy I don't think I can with.   I have to field a team, of course, but my team-building should not create impediments to find the right QB - for the long term I can't afford to restrict my draft picks or my cap space.  

 

It's just how I think an NFL team should be run.  Obviously, the Dolphins think otherwise, and they have a smart coach and probably a smart GM, so what do I know?

[ColoradoBills]

12 hours ago, FireChans said:

They just kicked the cap hit can down the road. They were still highly paid.

 

You want to see an example of "kicking the can down the road", just look at what Miami has done with Hill.

This Waddle signing is because Hill will not be on the team in 2026.  The last year of his contract 2006 (age 32) is $56M cap hit!

 

LOL, that's crazy.  Hill's last season with the Dolphins is next year.

 

I don't look at this Waddle signing in a vacuum.  The Dolphins have some serious cap issues to deal with next year and they still

haven't signed their franchise QB.  

 

https://www.spotrac.com/nfl/player/_/id/19119/tyreek-hill

 

 

 

[Shaw66]

6 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

 

Goff is as bad as Tua in genuinely "off script" situations and I say that as someone who has always argued Jared Goff is underrated by most football fans. I think the difference between Goff and Tua isn't "off script" so much as it is "beyond first read." If a play totally breaks down they are both stuffed. But with Goff that only happens really if you get early pressure. It is why being in Detroit behind the best bookend tackles in the NFL is perfect for him. With Tua it happens if you can take his first read away and make him get to his 2nd or 3rd read. He doesn't process quickly enough to do that and at that stage the play is basically broken and he is in trouble. I remember that game in Buffalo early last year and those first two drives Tua actually made a couple of nice plays in that situation where the Bills were right there and just couldn't make a play on the ball. I said then in the GDT - "he won't make those plays all day." And after those first two drives he didn't. The Bills did. And they won in a canter. 

I've kept thinking about this, and I really like the distinction you've made here.   I think it's useful to evaluate quarterback play in three categories:  early script, late script, and off script.  What you've said here is that Tua is good at the first, Goff the first and second.  I think that's correct.   

 

I think, for example that both Purdy and Burrow are great early script and late script and weak off script.  

 

I think Mahomes is excellent in all three phases. 

 

I think Allen is good but still needs to improve early script and late script, and he's the best (with Mahomes) of all the current QBs off script.

 

[Rampant Buffalo]

3 hours ago, BillsFan130 said:

The top guys I 100 percent agree with you.

 

For the middle guys it's 50/50 for me.

 

Even right now- Would you rather someone like Gabe Davis at 12 mil (or whatever he's making) or draft a rookie in the 2nd round at a few million per year to hopefully be your number 2 WR for the next 4 years? 

 

I would choose option B, but those ^ are the decisions GMs will have to ask themselves going forward 

 

My specific concern with Gabe Davis is his low catch %. Davis isn't getting the same kind of deal from me, that he'd get from a team like Jacksonville. So I'd take option B. Let's use a different example. Option A is to give a good extension to Shakir, and option B is draft his replacement. In that scenario, I'm looking long and hard at option A.

 

There are two key reasons why comparing WRs to RBs doesn't work. One of those key reasons is this. By the time a RB reaches the end of his rookie deal, usually he has maybe 1 - 2 years of tread left on his tires. For example, a RB is a free agent, and he's going into year 5 of his career. If a GM throws big money at a guy like that, what will happen? A couple years into this new deal, the GM will say, "Whoops! This RB is now past his prime. That big contract was boneheaded on my part!" A good WR will generally have a lot more longevity than a typical RB. If a GM gives a good contract to a good WR going into year 5, that GM is unlikely to encounter a "Whoops! Boneheaded" scenario. 

[GunnerBill]

8 minutes ago, Shaw66 said:

I've kept thinking about this, and I really like the distinction you've made here.   I think it's useful to evaluate quarterback play in three categories:  early script, late script, and off script.  What you've said here is that Tua is good at the first, Goff the first and second.  I think that's correct.   

 

I think, for example that both Purdy and Burrow are great early script and late script and weak off script.  

 

I think Mahomes is excellent in all three phases. 

 

I think Allen is good but still needs to improve early script and late script, and he's the best (with Mahomes) of all the current QBs off script.

 

 

Yea. I think Burrow is better off script than Purdy and certainly than Goff etc, but I think compared to the other guys we talk about in the elite conversation he is weaker there. He is the probably the best in the league purely from the pocket though. 

[Shaw66]

7 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

Yea. I think Burrow is better off script than Purdy and certainly than Goff etc, but I think compared to the other guys we talk about in the elite conversation he is weaker there. He is the probably the best in the league purely from the pocket though. 

Right.  Burrow in the pocket is exquisite.   Decisive and amazingly accurate.  The good news for Bills fans is that it's easier to get better at early and late script (where I think Allen needs to improve) than it is to get better off script.  I think what you see is largely what you get with Burrow, but Allen is going to continue to improve, which is a scary thought for the rest of the league. 

 

None of which has anything to do with Waddle!

[Mango]

13 hours ago, FireChans said:

They just kicked the cap hit can down the road. They were still highly paid.

 

"They made more later" isn't really relevant. You quoted a post where I literally said "percentage of cap dollars". The cost of a player in a given year is super important when it comes to winning a championship. And even for teams that won and came close to doing what you are saying you have LAR who are a cap disaster and not very good, When Mahomes started to get paid KC moved on from both Watkins and Tyreek when their bills came due. Then TB has been just bad after having those players retire. 

 

Also for the two teams and players the OP cited Detroit took a good portion of Staffords SB year was the year he was traded. He had a very average QB cap number at $13M (14th among QB's), OBJ signed vet minimum ($400k), Godwin was on a rookie deal, Mike Evans was on a front loaded deal on a team with no QB when he signed. 

With the way things are now the Dolphins will have a $30M Tyreek Hill, a $25M Jalen Waddle, and a $30M Tua in 2025. It is an unheard of cap allocation that has yet to be proven to be a way to win a championship in the NFL. Not even in the "they just kicked the can down the road" narrative you keep pushing. As far as I am concerned let Philly do it. Let Miami do it. Let Cincinatti do it. Nobody has ever won a SB or sustained any success trying to go down that road. 

 

[SoCal Deek]

1 hour ago, Shaw66 said:

All of the above.  I think if you're a GM and you don't have one of the ten or so guys who are in the first two categories I described, all of your plans have to be driven by how you're going to get a QB.   Maybe you're drafting one, maybe you're getting a free agent, so you're thinking a lot about how to get a top draft pick and how to put yourself in position to sign the occasional free agent.  The free agent route means you need cap room, so if I'm looking for my QB, I'm not using up cap space on a Gabriel Davis.   

 

The Broncos haven't had much success, but I applaud them for being active.   They swung and missed on Russell Wilson, but I think that their only choice without a QB was to take the best swings you could.  However the Bills got into the situation, they needed to be swinging the year they drafted Manuel.   The Bills took another swing on Tyrod (which was sort of a wasted swing - journeymen QBs usually just waste playing time that could be used on anyone with upstate.   The Broncos, for example, took a swing on Siemian.  It was also a miss, but at least it was a guy with real upside.  

 

I think every season the Dolphins stick with Tua is a season they aren't actively looking for the right guy.  Extending him means they won't have cap space to be in the bidding when a free agent comes along.   

 

If I ran the Dolphins,  for example, I would have been in the bidding for Aaron Rodgers.    

 

I just don't see any point in building a team around a guy I don't think I can with.   I have to field a team, of course, but my team-building should not create impediments to find the right QB - for the long term I can't afford to restrict my draft picks or my cap space.  

 

It's just how I think an NFL team should be run.  Obviously, the Dolphins think otherwise, and they have a smart coach and probably a smart GM, so what do I know?

Is there a free agent you think they should target? The obvious challenge is trying to time it out so as to coincide with your WR contracts. Otherwise you end up on a never ending teeter totter. 

[sleeby]

On 5/30/2024 at 11:17 AM, julian said:

lol wow, I’m thinking this is a joke… no way you actually believe he’s a “whack job” for having a large family and the financial resources to do it without burdening the taxpayers. 
 

 Or you just hate kids hahahaha.

Can't speak for the person you replied to but if not adopted then that many crotch fruits is disgusting.

 

Human population first reached 1 billion 1800AD; 2 billion 1930, 4 billion 1976 and 8 billion today.  Exponential growth is the root cause of all of our current problems.  

 

There are more humans alive and eating and breathing today, may 31, 2024 than have ever lived in the million years which came before us.  

[FireChans]

8 minutes ago, Mango said:

 

"They made more later" isn't really relevant. You quoted a post where I literally said "percentage of cap dollars". The cost of a player in a given year is super important when it comes to winning a championship. And even for teams that won and came close to doing what you are saying you have LAR who are a cap disaster and not very good, When Mahomes started to get paid KC moved on from both Watkins and Tyreek when their bills came due. Then TB has been just bad after having those players retire. 

 

Also for the two teams and players the OP cited Detroit took a good portion of Staffords SB year was the year he was traded. He had a very average QB cap number at $13M (14th among QB's), OBJ signed vet minimum ($400k), Godwin was on a rookie deal, Mike Evans was on a front loaded deal on a team with no QB when he signed. 

With the way things are now the Dolphins will have a $30M Tyreek Hill, a $25M Jalen Waddle, and a $30M Tua in 2025. It is an unheard of cap allocation that has yet to be proven to be a way to win a championship in the NFL. Not even in the "they just kicked the can down the road" narrative you keep pushing. As far as I am concerned let Philly do it. Let Miami do it. Let Cincinatti do it. Nobody has ever won a SB or sustained any success trying to go down that road. 

 

But that’s wrong and that won’t be what happens.

 

Even with Waddles big money extension, he is going to cost $9M against the cap this season and $19M against the cap next season. 
 

Tua’s cap hit in 2024 is $23M. If they extend him after the season, his total dollars will be high, but he will probably have a SMALLER cap hit in 2025 compared to 2024.

 

Picking and choosing when you use the big contract numbers or the cap hits is fallacious.

 

I’m not sitting here saying this is a great move for Miami. If I was their GM, I would’ve probably drafted some cheap WR replacements for Waddle and either let him walk or traded him/Hill in 25. 

[BillsFan130]

34 minutes ago, Rampant Buffalo said:

 

My specific concern with Gabe Davis is his low catch %. Davis isn't getting the same kind of deal from me, that he'd get from a team like Jacksonville. So I'd take option B. Let's use a different example. Option A is to give a good extension to Shakir, and option B is draft his replacement. In that scenario, I'm looking long and hard at option A.

 

There are two key reasons why comparing WRs to RBs doesn't work. One of those key reasons is this. By the time a RB reaches the end of his rookie deal, usually he has maybe 1 - 2 years of tread left on his tires. For example, a RB is a free agent, and he's going into year 5 of his career. If a GM throws big money at a guy like that, what will happen? A couple years into this new deal, the GM will say, "Whoops! This RB is now past his prime. That big contract was boneheaded on my part!" A good WR will generally have a lot more longevity than a typical RB. If a GM gives a good contract to a good WR going into year 5, that GM is unlikely to encounter a "Whoops! Boneheaded" scenario. 

For sure and I agree with that. I'm def not putting WRs in the bucket of RBs as the top guys will continue to get insane contracts.

 

I do think though at some point the middling guys will stabilize and it already kind of has.

 

I'm just curious to see where the market will go in the next 5 years with those WRs that are 2nd or 3rd on the depth chart.