How do you envision Khalil Shakir being utilized in this years offense?

[Rocky Landing]

If he's used in exactly the same way he was towards the end of the season, than 50-60 ypg, for around 1,000 yards on the season, is not an unrealistic expectation. However, I suspect his target number is likely to drop off a little from that. It seems likely the ball will get spread around quite a bit more this season, with Kincaid, Cook/Davis, getting more targets, as well as Coleman and whichever other 6'4" WR ends up on the field.

 

I think 700-800 yards on the season is a reasonable expectation, and that would be great. It could certainly be more, however. He was so reliable at the end of the season, with a 0% drop rate. If Coleman doesn't excel, and the other acquisitions aren't as good as we hope, he could become the go-to guy, and end up with the same sort of usage he ended the '23 season with.

[billsfan_34]

10 hours ago, HoofHearted said:

Brady has said he wants to take advantage of each players individual skill sets within this offense. Couple that with the uptick in production we saw out of Shakir at the end of last season once Brady took over, and one could assume he’s primed to be a focal point in this offense (albeit not to the level that Diggs was). So what say you. How would you get the most out of Shakir’s skill set within this offense? (There are no wrong answers and I’ll give my opinions later as not to influence the responses).

Slot 

[frostbitmic]

Shakir started catching everything Allen was throwing to him by the end of the year and IMO Josh has more confidence in Shakir than any of his other receivers. Because of that, I think he'll be used like he was last year, just more.

[transient]

Depends on how he deals with the attention opposing defenses will be throwing his way early in the season knowing he and Kincaid are the only true pass catching holdovers. If he can handle it, I think they make him more of a focal point. If he stumbles I think they relegate him to the role he had last season and hope they can feature Kincaid with a posse of “2’s” to carry the rest of the load. 

[Alphadawg7]

2 hours ago, HappyDays said:

 

Shakir is better after the catch but Beasley was much better before the catch. That's why I think he might just be better as an inherently low target player... He's no more than average as a separator and I appreciate that he has sure hands but he's not going to be a contested catch specialist with that body type. His is a very valuable skill set but it's complementary, not focal, IMO.

 

So as to how I would like to see Shakir used - I want him ideally to get 4-5 targets per game. Primarily schemed throws from free releases that give him the ball in space. He plays like a greased up pig with the ball in his hands, his YAC is very deceptive and I really appreciate that about his game. For similar reasons he makes an excellent check down/outlet. If the plan is to use him more than 33% outside I think that plan will fail. Stick him where his skill set can shine and don't mess with a good thing.

 

I think 33% cap on outside routes is fair estimate...he doesn't have to live outside, but he is capable enough to move him around like Samuel too to keep movement and defenses on their toes.  

 

I do think he is definitely capable of more targets per game than 4-5...but also this group is deep, and there is only one ball to go around, so I think 5-6 is probably where he falls and there could be some games where he doesn't get many and others where he gets more.  

 

I fully expect the offense to adapt weekly to what is being given to them and the targets will reflect that.  One week a team may be struggling to cover Keon who goes off...the next week, maybe its Kincaid just exploiting something in the defense...another week might be Shakir having the big game...another week Cook and Davis go off and we throw a lot less.  My guess is by seasons end Shakir probably ends up around 90 targets which would be 5.3 per game so just a hair above your range.  

 

And there in lies the beauty in what Beane is building in this room...a team that does not need one guy to go out and get 80-120 yards every week...but a group where any one guy could put up a week like each and every week and there isn't one player for the D to key on to disrupt the offense.  Take away Keon and Kincaid or Shakir is going to burn you.  Take away Kincaid, and Keon and Shakir are there to hurt you.  Put a good plan to slow down the pass attack and Allen, Cook, and Davis might maul you on the ground.  

 

We may not have one guy who will put up a 1400 yard season this year, but we could have 4 guys who finish somewhere between 700-1000 yards and that is harder to defend than the one guy.  Heck, its possible Keon, Kincaid, and Shakir all flirt with 1000 yards this year with Samuel still putting up 600-700 yards himself while the team still rushes for well over 2000 yards.  

Edited May 30 by Alphadawg7

[BigAl2526]

I expect to see him in the slot 75% of the time.

[Shaw66]

My answer:   I don't know.   

 

Seems to me (and to everyone else on this board) that the goal is to spread the ball around.  The way to spread the ball around is to have a team of receivers that run routes that stress the defense in one way, and then have those receivers read and react to that stress.  That's based on play calling, Allen making the correct pre-snap adjustments, Allen and the receivers making the correct post-snap reads and adjustments so that Allen throws accurately to guy who can make uncontested catch.  I've always disliked the comment that "so-and-so has completed 17 of 20 passes to nine different receivers," but in fact that stat is one measure that will show whether the passing offense is working.  

 

What does that mean for Shakir?  I think it means the same thing for Samuel and Coleman and Kincaid and MVS and Cook.  If Allen is getting the ball to these receivers for uncontested catches, all of them have the talent to get serious yards after the catch.  All of them need to be good at the things I said in the previous paragraph, and if they're all good at those things, all of them will be serious threats on the field, and they all will be successful.  

[Thrivefourfive]

Inside. Quick hits. Screens. End arounds, jet sweeps.
 

I’d like to see what he can do with an expanded route tree. I want to see the mid stuff, and not just backside drags. 

Can he throw? Can any player throw besides Allen? The ol’ Julian Edelman is a nice play to hold. 

[Shaw66]

9 hours ago, Alphadawg7 said:

 

Shakir is capable of a lot more than Cole was though who was really one note kind of WR.  He was a short area specialist...Shakir is faster, bigger, stronger, and much better YAC and can attack the defense in all 3 phases of the game.  And he can do that out of the slot or being moved around.  

 

So I think you limit the value of Shakir if you try and replicate Cole.  

I agree.  And, to be fair to Beas, I'm not sure Shakir ever could be as good as Beasley was at the short area game.   Yes, Shakir has some quickness and shiftiness, but Beasley really was elite in that category.  Beasley was as good as Edelman, maybe better.  

 

But for sure, if the Bills try to use Shakir in to fill the Beasley role, they will be limiting his effectiveness.  One of Beasley's principal limitations was that he wasn't a serious threat to go deep, which allowed defenses leave him one on one and just take their lumps on short balls.   Defenses simply didn't worry much that Beasley would be running a crosser 20 yards downfield.   Some guy playing Shakir tight man at the line of scrimmage is going to back off because it's Shakir, and that alone will reshape the defense in a way that creates opportunities for the offense.  

 

Samuel and Coleman present the same kind of problems.   They can attack the defense in a lot of ways, and the strength of the passing game will be that they'll all be on the field at the same time.   

 

I'm repeating things other people have said here in the past couple of weeks, but it's important to remember that last season Davis was somewhat one-dimensional and Diggs, too, was a less-diversified threat.  This season, if it's Samuel, Coleman, and Shakir on the field, the Bills will challenge defenses to protect against quick screens, slants, posts, corners, everything.   All three of them present serious threats in different packages.  If Brady does his job, and Allen does his job, there are going to be a lot of throws for uncontested catches.  

[DapperCam]

I think he'll play outside sometimes, and inside other times. I think Allen trusts him, so he'll get fed targets and have a great year. I think 1k yards is possible for him. His end of season/playoffs was pretty awesome last year, and nothing seems unsustainable about him game. 

[machine gun kelly]

I still see him as a slot WR.  He’s shined there.  We have others for outside WR’s.  If everyone remembers Beasely was our slot guy in his prime and had a ton of receptions.  I can envision the same.  He’s the underneath guy.  Every QB needs a outlet guy in addition to the RB’s.

[Alphadawg7]

@HoofHearted you never gave your own response to this...said you were going to later, but just reminding you that you still haven't as the next QOD has arrived   Im curious to your thoughts on this too

[Alphadawg7]

5 hours ago, Shaw66 said:

I agree.  And, to be fair to Beas, I'm not sure Shakir ever could be as good as Beasley was at the short area game.   Yes, Shakir has some quickness and shiftiness, but Beasley really was elite in that category.  Beasley was as good as Edelman, maybe better.  

 

But for sure, if the Bills try to use Shakir in to fill the Beasley role, they will be limiting his effectiveness.  One of Beasley's principal limitations was that he wasn't a serious threat to go deep, which allowed defenses leave him one on one and just take their lumps on short balls.   Defenses simply didn't worry much that Beasley would be running a crosser 20 yards downfield.   Some guy playing Shakir tight man at the line of scrimmage is going to back off because it's Shakir, and that alone will reshape the defense in a way that creates opportunities for the offense.  

 

Samuel and Coleman present the same kind of problems.   They can attack the defense in a lot of ways, and the strength of the passing game will be that they'll all be on the field at the same time.   

 

I'm repeating things other people have said here in the past couple of weeks, but it's important to remember that last season Davis was somewhat one-dimensional and Diggs, too, was a less-diversified threat.  This season, if it's Samuel, Coleman, and Shakir on the field, the Bills will challenge defenses to protect against quick screens, slants, posts, corners, everything.   All three of them present serious threats in different packages.  If Brady does his job, and Allen does his job, there are going to be a lot of throws for uncontested catches.  

 

I agree about Beasley and also about the offense this year, in fact, its what I have been saying for a while now is the plan because its what Beane has been echoing as well on how and why he is building this WR room this way.  

 

I felt like Shakir could really break 1000 yards this year right after the Diggs trade.  But with how balanced the WR room is, and more importantly, how deep it is now...it might be hard for any WR to break a 1000 yards in this spread the ball offense and we could see 4 guys come in between 700-1000 yards in Kincaid, Keon, Shakir, and Samuel plus still get 80-100 targets to RB's and some decent production from guys like Knox/Hollins/Claypool/MVS.  

[EmotionallyUnstable]

I’m looking at last year as a bit of a launch pad for him. 
 

weeks 1-8 he played a minimal role (20% roughly of snaps)

 

week 8 on he played significantly more, taking snaps from 60-80% of plays.

 

In average he got around 53% of snaps. I expect this number to be much higher in 2024 and more in line with the end of year which hovered around 75%.

 

That said, I do think he plays a larger role but I am not sure how much or where. I think it will be interesting to see how much 12 personnel Brady plans to run and if it is a lot, which WR is generally going to be subbed out for Knox. It was him last year, and I don’t expect Coleman to come off the field all that much (like Davis at 90% plus snaps). 
 

Are they going to take Samuel off the field or Shakir leaving the other to be the Z? I feel they both can play in this role 

 

random stab at production based on last year and current roster:

 

5-6 targets per game, 60-850-4 

[SectionC3]

They move him around a bit and put him in motion a fair amount to help scheme him open.  Stat line, based on the last 11 games of last year, should be somewhere around 70/850/4.  

[SoCal Deek]

There are only two things that matter in any offense. First, being able to move the chains on the third down. Second, being able to score touchdowns in the red zone. Everything else is a very distant third. So what do I envision from Shakir? Consistent performance in the first two. 

[Mat68]

2 hours ago, EmotionallyUnstable said:

I’m looking at last year as a bit of a launch pad for him. 
 

weeks 1-8 he played a minimal role (20% roughly of snaps)

 

week 8 on he played significantly more, taking snaps from 60-80% of plays.

 

In average he got around 53% of snaps. I expect this number to be much higher in 2024 and more in line with the end of year which hovered around 75%.

 

That said, I do think he plays a larger role but I am not sure how much or where. I think it will be interesting to see how much 12 personnel Brady plans to run and if it is a lot, which WR is generally going to be subbed out for Knox. It was him last year, and I don’t expect Coleman to come off the field all that much (like Davis at 90% plus snaps). 
 

Are they going to take Samuel off the field or Shakir leaving the other to be the Z? I feel they both can play in this role 

 

random stab at production based on last year and current roster:

 

5-6 targets per game, 60-850-4 

I don't see why Samuel and Shakir both cant be on the field. Both about 6ft 190.  Not small guys.  Brown and Beasley both played together and both were smaller than either.  Besides Coleman, I dont think you will see any WR with a set position.  Based off matchup and player packages you will see them line up everywhere.  As Coleman gets more comfortable you will see him line up everywhere too.  Production wise I think you will see Shakir pace the room in catches and yards.  If any wr breaks 1,000 yards I would bet it is him. 

[GASabresIUFan]

We can’t know at this point because the Bills don’t know yet until they see how everyone fits during camp.  Brady certainly has ideas but how he eventually utilizes Shakir vs Samuel is going to be one of the great camp debates.  
 

In corner one:  Samuel.  Big FA signing.  NFL vet.  Experienced in a Brady offense.  An inch shorter than Diggs but with track speed. In fact, he’s the fastest of the Bills receivers who is certain to make the team (Hamler may be faster).  Has outside experience, but 75% of his snaps have been in the slot.  
 

In corner two: Shakir: Shakir is about the same size and speed as Diggs.  He played outside in college.  He and Kincaid are the only returning Bills with game experience with Josh.
 

He lead the Bills last year in :

1. Yards per catch - 15+
2. Yards per target

3. Catch percentage - 84%+

4. Explosive plays per target.  Shakir had 17 on only 45 targets.  One of the best ratios in the NFL. (FYI: Diggs had 19 on 160 targets). 
 

Because of Samuel’s track speed, I can see Brady trying him on deeper patterns than he has run in his career prior to joining the Bills.  In Carolina, Brady had two guys who he weren’t really slot options in Moore and Anderson and slotted Samuel there and also utilized his speed out of the backfield.  
 

Here, he won’t need Samuel’s speed in the backfield with Davis and Cook already on the team.  However, he’ll need Samuel’s speed on fly patterns and deep posts, which can be run on the boundary or in the slot.  
 

Ultimately I don’t think it will matter.  Where they lineup and what patterns the two guys run will vary significantly from game to game as Brady tries to get matchups he likes.  

 

[bobobonators]

Shakir could be a breakout player for us this season. Without a doubt he has shown flashes of a really good player. Somewhat anecdotal but many WR break out in their 3rd season. 
 

He had 611yds last season with Davis and Diggs on the team. This year I could see him approaching 1,000 with ~5TD. 
 

Shakir, Samuel and Kincaid heavily early in the season. And I’d expect Coleman to start eating up targets by mid season. 

[PrimeTime101]

1. Crossing Patterns

2. Bubble Screens

 

3. and then the rare fakes that start to look like crossing patterns but then stretches the defense deep in the middle.