Arm punts?

[LABILLBACKER]

I'm just personally tired of the national media narrative that for every JA17 interception,  you subtract 1 td.  No wonder he never wins the mvp.  It's all about minimizing the picks. Regardless of whether you rationalize them into a punt.

[BillsfaninChicago]

I am good at arm farts.

[Neo]

On 5/25/2024 at 2:25 PM, FireChans said:

Sure, but the rate of holding, roughing the punter, blocks in the back, muffed punts is all much much much higher than any negative things happening after an interception.

 

All I know is TBD’s definitely starting acting like TO’s don’t matter when they got a QB who turns it over a ton.  

I am picturing you staring at Marilyn Monroe and Cindy Crawford and mumbling … “they have moles.”

 

There’s not one post on TBD that says TOs don’t matter.  Not one.  That’s the absurd straw man to balance the absurd, and weird, development of an “arm punt excuse” thread.  What, exactly, is being excused and who’s doing the excusing?

 

I can see the Hollywood Blog now.  Some benign moles, that every human has, turn cancerous.  People “excusing” Marilyn and Cindy and focusing only on their other-worldly beauty are missing the point that wise observers like me understand - despite being obvious to everyone.

 

I understand the contrarian dopamine LAMP rush.  I understand less the desire to nit -pick the greats.  It exists, certainly.  My DNA leads me to wonder and marvel.  

 

I’d recommend, when the urge to manufacture or join a criticism is too great, spend a moment considering what’s been concocted.  “Arm punt excuse” is manufactured Frankenstein with Abbie Normal’s brain.

 

I understand you didn’t build the monster.  I was inspired by your “acting like TO’s don’t matter” advancement of the argument.

Edited May 27 by Neo

[Shortchaz]

“Arm punt” = turnover resulting from acceptable risk throw; a shorthand for “I can live with a turnover in that situation, it’s ultimately not a big deal”. 
 

I don’t think the literal translation is how most people intend it. 

[FireChans]

4 hours ago, Neo said:

I am picturing you staring at Marilyn Monroe and Cindy Crawford and mumbling … “they have moles.”

 

There’s not one post on TBD that says TOs don’t matter.  Not one.  That’s the absurd straw man to balance the absurd, and weird, development of an “arm punt excuse” thread.  What, exactly, is being excused and who’s doing the excusing?

 

I can see the Hollywood Blog now.  Some benign moles, that every human has, turn cancerous.  People “excusing” Marilyn and Cindy and focusing only on their other-worldly beauty are missing the point that wise observers like me understand - despite being obvious to everyone.

 

I understand the contrarian dopamine LAMP rush.  I understand less the desire to nit -pick the greats.  It exists, certainly.  My DNA leads me to wonder and marvel.  

 

I’d recommend, when the urge to manufacture or join a criticism is too great, spend a moment considering what’s been concocted.  “Arm punt excuse” is manufactured Frankenstein with Abbie Normal’s brain.

 

I understand you didn’t build the monster.  I was inspired by your “acting like TO’s don’t matter” advancement of the argument.

I don’t even know how to respond to this.

 

 

 

Here’s a topic I made in November.  Josh Allen was smack dab in the middle from a TD/TO ratio below Dak Prescott and above Ryan Tannehill.

 

It’s not nit-picking. He turns it over too much. 

[BigDingus]

I always thought the idea of "arm punts" was dumb...

 

Unless you punt on 3rd down, it's not the same thing. I don't care if you were backed up or had little chance to get a 1st, it's still not the same thing.

[nucci]

There is no such thing, They are interceptions

[Sammy Watkins' Rib]

8 hours ago, BigDingus said:

I always thought the idea of "arm punts" was dumb...

 

Unless you punt on 3rd down, it's not the same thing. I don't care if you were backed up or had little chance to get a 1st, it's still not the same thing.

 

The idea makes sense to me. They are situations where you are behind the sticks more than 10 yards and take a reasonable deep shot. I don't love the OP's definition of 3rd and 5 or longer. There are better options between 3rd and 5 - 10 yards. It should be defined as behind the sticks. 

 

The INT against Washington was 3rd and 20 from Bills 40 yard line. Took a deep shot, DB made a better play than Gabe Davis and picked it off at the 19 for no gain. That's a 41 yard net punt inside the 20. 

 

Jacksonville game, Bills had 3rd and 15 from Bills 41 yard line. Deep shot to Diggs in one one coverage. Diggs gets both hands on the ball and is out muscled by the DB at the 7 yard line for no gain.. Result is equivalent to net punt of 52 yards inside the 10 yard line. 

 

The Washington one was a perfect example. When you are at 3rd and 20, every pass to move the chains is going to be deep. Even if you complete something at 15 yards and rely on 5 yards of YAC to get the first down. You are still throwing at least 15 air yards down the field. So it is a question of how deep do you want to throw it? Deep or really deep? If you are going to turn it over, I rather it be intercepted 40 yards down field over 15 or 20 yards down field. 

 

 

[Sammy Watkins' Rib]

12 hours ago, FireChans said:

I don’t even know how to respond to this.

 

 

 

Here’s a topic I made in November.  Josh Allen was smack dab in the middle from a TD/TO ratio below Dak Prescott and above Ryan Tannehill.

 

It’s not nit-picking. He turns it over too much. 

 

This was a good thread. But one thing unsolved is there is no assigned value for TD's and turnovers. Are we considering the two equally valuable? I certainly don't think that is true. But if the only stat we have is TD:TO ratio, that basically assumes equal value between both. I much rather have my QB put up 3 TDs and 2 TO then say have my QB put up 2 TD and 1 Turnovers. A TD is worth 6 points every time. A turnover could be worth 6, 3 or 0 points for the other team. 

 

How you get to your TD:TO ratio matters IMO. If you have a middle of the pack TD:TO ratio but don't actually score many TD's ( think Tyrod Taylor for example), I don't think that is a good thing. If you have a middle of the pack TD:TO ratio and happen to lead the league in TD's since 2018, that is a much more valuable QB. 

[FireChans]

1 hour ago, Sammy Watkins' Rib said:

 

This was a good thread. But one thing unsolved is there is no assigned value for TD's and turnovers. Are we considering the two equally valuable? I certainly don't think that is true. But if the only stat we have is TD:TO ratio, that basically assumes equal value between both. I much rather have my QB put up 3 TDs and 2 TO then say have my QB put up 2 TD and 1 Turnovers. A TD is worth 6 points every time. A turnover could be worth 6, 3 or 0 points for the other team. 

 

How you get to your TD:TO ratio matters IMO. If you have a middle of the pack TD:TO ratio but don't actually score many TD's ( think Tyrod Taylor for example), I don't think that is a good thing. If you have a middle of the pack TD:TO ratio and happen to lead the league in TD's since 2018, that is a much more valuable QB. 

Yeah but nobody thinks Tyrod is as good of a QB as Allen, despite the TO difference.

 

The question is does Allen need to be middle of the pack in TOs to produce a ton of TD’s?

 

Would you trade 2 less TD’s for 5 less TO’s? Maybe.

[CSBill]

When I read the title of the thread, I thought, "Novel idea. Is the NFL going to experiment with allowing teams to somehow punt with their arms like a backyard volleyball serve?"

 

The actual subject of the thread disappointed me.

[Sammy Watkins' Rib]

7 hours ago, FireChans said:

Yeah but nobody thinks Tyrod is as good of a QB as Allen, despite the TO difference.

 

The question is does Allen need to be middle of the pack in TOs to produce a ton of TD’s?

 

Would you trade 2 less TD’s for 5 less TO’s? Maybe.

 

Allen's ceiling is what he has done in the playoffs. Something like 27-6 TD to Turnover ratio? That puts him in the 4.5 to 1 Aaron Rodgers category. Despite the 4.5  to 1 TD to turnover ratio in the postseason, Allen's decreased turnovers in the post season has not resulted in the Bills getting closer to the Super Bowl. Less turnovers in the post season without an increase in TD's would not have helped the Bills Super Bowl chances. But scoring even more TD's along with more turnovers would have possibly helped. 

 

Edited May 28 by Sammy Watkins' Rib

[Sammy Watkins' Rib]

Allen's regular season turnover percentage is 2.7%

 

Allen's postseason turnover percentage is 1.3%

 

Allen's regular season TD percentage is 5.9%

 

Allen's post season TD percentage is 5.8%

 

He's been remarkably consistent with a high TD percentage in both regular season and post season. Has a dramatically lower turnover percentage in the post season vs. regular season. We've seen low turnover Josh Allen in the post season and it still hasn't even been enough to get the Bills to a Super Bowl. 

 

Quote

On 12/10/2023 at 2:57 PM, FireChans said:

I wouldn’t expect him to be much more than an also ran playoff QB either, then.

 

Is your opinion above from your turnover narrative thread, that Allen is an also ran playoff QB because of his 4.5 TD  : 1 TO  ratio in the postseason?

[FireChans]

1 hour ago, Sammy Watkins' Rib said:

Allen's regular season turnover percentage is 2.7%

 

Allen's postseason turnover percentage is 1.3%

 

Allen's regular season TD percentage is 5.9%

 

Allen's post season TD percentage is 5.8%

 

He's been remarkably consistent with a high TD percentage in both regular season and post season. Has a dramatically lower turnover percentage in the post season vs. regular season. We've seen low turnover Josh Allen in the post season and it still hasn't even been enough to get the Bills to a Super Bowl. 

 

 

Is your opinion above from your turnover narrative thread, that Allen is an also ran playoff QB because of his 4.5 TD  : 1 TO  ratio in the postseason?

yeah Allen has been absolutely elite in the playoffs since 2020. Can’t expect those numbers to be better. Honestly, I don’t expect those numbers to even continue with how incredible they are.
 

IRT the “also ran” it’s because the margin for #1 seed and bye is pretty razor thin. Costing us 1-2 regular season games with TOs can result in not getting the 1 seed, which as we saw last year meant that Bernard got hurt in the wild card round and missed the next week. 

[Orlando Buffalo]

On 5/27/2024 at 10:42 AM, Shortchaz said:

“Arm punt” = turnover resulting from acceptable risk throw; a shorthand for “I can live with a turnover in that situation, it’s ultimately not a big deal”. 
 

I don’t think the literal translation is how most people intend it. 

This is correct, there was at least two situations last year where the picks he threw caused our "win %" to go up because of field position. If it is 3rd and 16 with Josh I still think we have a decent chance of making the play, with EVERY other QB we have had since Kelly my confidence would be in single digits. With those plays I accept the turnover as part of the risk, now his Jets game and Denver game were horrific, but otherwise most of his TO were acceptable 

[billsfan89]

I do think that writing off deep INT's as "arm punts" is a bit of a flawed thing. For one the chance of returning an INT for a TD is significantly higher than a punt which is a play where the punting team is expecting a return and thus is designed in a way to minimize a return. Where as a defensive team getting a pick is catching the offense somewhat off guard and thus the offense (which are usually not players adept at tackling) is not set up to make a tackle on a return. 

 

Now I do think there is a narrow set of circumstances where a deep pick is somewhat equal to an "arm punt" a 3rd and long or 4th down situation where a QB chucks it deep into a contested catch situation that both pushes the ball downfield 40+ yards and is a situation where a return is highly unlikely by the defense then I think it is relatively equal (or close enough) to a punt. I think the perfect example of an actual "arm punt" is week 3 against the Commanders this past season. It was 3rd and 20 and Josh ripped the ball down the sidelines deep to Gabe Davis and the ball was turned over on the 19 yardline for a "net" of 41 yards pinned from the Bills own 40 to the Commanders 19. It was a 3rd and very long situation and the ball was placed in a way where there was only going to be 3 outcomes, 1 Gabe catches it for a 41 yard gain, 2 it is incomplete and the Bills punt normally, or 3 it is picked in a way where a return is 99% likely to not happen and the ball is still placed in a spot deep down the field for the defense to be a decent position field position wise. 

 

TLDR: Deep picks aren't "arm punts" in most situations and deep picks are more dangerous than punts as far as returns go. So unless a deep pass is positioned in a contested catch situation or in a way that highly limits the chance of a return it isn't really an "arm punt".