Arm punts?

[FireChans]

27 minutes ago, Chaos said:

Punting is giving the ball away. 

Sure, but the rate of holding, roughing the punter, blocks in the back, muffed punts is all much much much higher than any negative things happening after an interception.

 

All I know is TBD’s definitely starting acting like TO’s don’t matter when they got a QB who turns it over a ton.  

[MJS]

12 minutes ago, FireChans said:

Sure, but the rate of holding, roughing the punter, blocks in the back, muffed punts is all much much much higher than any negative things happening after an interception.

 

All I know is TBD’s definitely starting acting like TO’s don’t matter when they got a QB who turns it over a ton.  

I see people complaining about turnovers all the time. Allen's main criticism is that he turns it over too much. Who is acting like turnovers don't matter? It is one of the things in games that impacts the outcome the most. I feel like most people acknowledge that.

[GoBills808]

18 minutes ago, FireChans said:

Sure, but the rate of holding, roughing the punter, blocks in the back, muffed punts is all much much much higher than any negative things happening after an interception.

 

All I know is TBD’s definitely starting acting like TO’s don’t matter when they got a QB who turns it over a ton.  

When you're scoring an historic amount of TDs they matter less, correct

[DabillsDaBillsDaBills]

3 hours ago, Billy Claude said:

There's been a lot of talk about how many of Josh Allen's interceptions are just as good as punts.  I was curious as to how true this is so I looked at the data for the last two seasons.  To summarize, the idea of a "arm punt" is greatly exaggerated, only 2 out of 32 interceptions met my criteria as an arm punt.  Details are given below:

 

I counted an arm punt as (1) at least 3rd down  (2) outside field goal range (outside opponent's 40 yard line) (3) intercepted at least 35 yards past the line of scrimmage (4) at least 5 yards to go.  This last criteria is because I find it hard to believe that if you need less than 5 yards to get a first down, the best option is to throw it 40 yards downfield.  

 

For the 2023 season with 18 interceptions, 7 were on 1st down, 4 were on 2nd down, 6 on 3rd down, and 1 on 4th down.  Out of these last 7, only 2 on the interceptions meet the criteria:

 

Game 1 vs Jets 3rd and 8 from the Bills 31, intercepted 60 yards down field

Game 5 vs Jaguars 3rd and 15 from the Bills 41, intercepted 52 yards down field.

 

All the other 3rd down interceptions went less than 16 yards pass the line of scrimmage (2 were with the line of scrimmage in field goal range). The 4th down pass was from the Dolphin 35 and was a 4th and 2.

 

For the 2022 season with 14 interceptions, 3 were on 1st down, 6 were on 2nd down, 4 were on 3rd down and 1 was on 4th down.  None of the 3rd and 4th down interceptions went further than 20 yards pass the line of scrimmage and 2 of the 3rd down interceptions.

 

Of course, there are other reasons why an interception is justifiable, for example, 1 of the 2023 interceptions was a hail mary and you can argue you have to force it on 4th down but I don't feel the arm punt excuse is valid.

 

 

 

You missed this one

 

3rd & 20 at BUF 40

(6:27 - 3rd) (Shotgun) J.Allen pass deep left intended for G.Davis INTERCEPTED by K.Fuller at WAS 19. K.Fuller to WAS 19 for no gain (G.Davis). WAS-K.Fuller was injured during the play.

 

I remember a post on Reddit someone put together a list for the top 5 least damaging INTs of the season for the entire league. Josh had 3 of the top 5. So yea, throwing 3 arm punt INTs over the season isn't some huge number, but when Josh has thrown more of those than the rest of the league combined I think it's a fair thing to bring up. 

[strive_for_five_guy]

Josh is clearly still concussed from the Green Bay hit a couple years ago, reeling from his breakup w Brittany, distracted with his golf game, and just too commercial.  Time to get rid of him, Beane!!!

[GoBills808]

13 minutes ago, DabillsDaBillsDaBills said:

 

You missed this one

 

3rd & 20 at BUF 40

(6:27 - 3rd) (Shotgun) J.Allen pass deep left intended for G.Davis INTERCEPTED by K.Fuller at WAS 19. K.Fuller to WAS 19 for no gain (G.Davis). WAS-K.Fuller was injured during the play.

 

I remember a post on Reddit someone put together a list for the top 5 least damaging INTs of the season for the entire league. Josh had 3 of the top 5. So yea, throwing 3 arm punt INTs over the season isn't some huge number, but when Josh has thrown more of those than the rest of the league combined I think it's a fair thing to bring up. 

yes

 

they measure EPA as a component of QB ints which is a measure of how 'bad' your INTs are

 

Allen's were less damaging in terms of epa than guys like Hurts, Purdy, Mahomes, Tua etc

[FireChans]

53 minutes ago, MJS said:

I see people complaining about turnovers all the time. Allen's main criticism is that he turns it over too much. Who is acting like turnovers don't matter? It is one of the things in games that impacts the outcome the most. I feel like most people acknowledge that.

Um, there are like 100 page topics about how he doesn’t throw more picks than Brett Favre

[Thrivefourfive]

Thank you OP. I am also on board with eliminating arm punts. 

[Einstein]

Anyone complaining about Josh Allen should have a bucket of mosquitos attractant dumped down their pants, without a hint of DEET anywhere in sight.

 

He is the best thing to happen to this franchise since we switched to red helmets to help out color-blind Ferguson.

[Saint Doug]

I don’t believe in arm punts. It depends on the other team actually intercepting it. They’ll be some dumb or selfish players who will intercept it, but the smart play will be to bat it down. 

[folz]

I hadn't really heard anyone talk about it as if they think it is actually a tactic used by Josh or the team. It just seems like the few times it happened last year (and maybe again when talking about Josh's candidacy for MVP), there were discussions about those picks not really affecting the outcome of those games (so not dinging Josh too much for it), because it was as good as a punt. Yes, it is a post-game rationalization, but it is also true. I think Josh, in that moment,  is still hoping to make that connection (he's not just giving it away to the other team), but because of the situation they are in, etc., he may be ok to let that one fly deep, because if it is intercepted, it doesn't really hurt too much (as long as there isn't a long return). So, it's not saying erase those interceptions from Josh's stats, they don't count because he meant to do it, it is just that they don't add up to make me over worry that Josh has an interception problem. 

 

First of all, there were a number of weird tips/great defensive plays against Josh this year (plays that 90% of the time end with the ball harmlessly hitting the turf). Seemed like the opposing players had better hands than some of our receivers last year. 

 

Secondly, Josh didn't throw any 4th quarter interceptions last season. And in the 6 losses last year (over which Josh averaged 1.5 INTs/game), there was only one game---opening day vs. the Jets---that Josh (despite the INTs) didn't still have the team in position to win the game (the Bills were winning in the 4th quarter and the defense allowed a late score to the opponent). 

 

Plus there were other factors last year that might allow for improvement this year:

Two OCs/changing OCs mid-season; Dorsey not doing a great job as OC over more than the first half of the season; Stefon being disgruntled/crack in their relationship; Pass catchers without great hands (Davis, Sherfield, and even Stefon down the stretch---Coleman and Samuel both have good hands, and Kincaid and Shakir had amazing catch percentages last year).

 

To me, the discussion isn't about whether Josh does or should throw arm punts, it is about did those particular interceptions affect the outcome of those games. And since it worked out as good as a punt (not saying he meant it as a punt), I don't really care that Josh took that risk in that circumstance (unless he had a better option on the field to get a first down, of course---I haven't looked back to see if Josh had other options on those throws or not). And it doesn't matter to me if it makes his  INT stats at the end of the year look bad, because ultimately it wasn't a bad decision at that time in that game---he's taking a chance knowing that the negative outcome wouldn't be that bad for the team.

 

And as GoBills808 said, you also have to factor in the amount of TDs Josh scores when thinking about interceptions. For instance, he threw 18 INTs to Lamar Jackson's 7 INTs. But Josh also scored 44 TDs to Lamar's 29. With more reward comes more risk. Even if the opponents turned every INT into a TD (which they never do), and you subtracted those scores from their TD totals, Josh still would be up 30 points on Lamar. 

 

Look, ultimately, does Josh need to improve on his number of interceptions from last season? Yes. But, do I worry that he has an interception problem that he can't improve on this year? No.

 

 

 

[Beck Water]

7 hours ago, Billy Claude said:

There's been a lot of talk about how many of Josh Allen's interceptions are just as good as punts.  I was curious as to how true this is so I looked at the data for the last two seasons.  To summarize, the idea of a "arm punt" is greatly exaggerated, only 2 out of 32 interceptions met my criteria as an arm punt.  Details are given below:

 

I counted an arm punt as (1) at least 3rd down  (2) outside field goal range (outside opponent's 40 yard line) (3) intercepted at least 35 yards past the line of scrimmage (4) at least 5 yards to go.  This last criteria is because I find it hard to believe that if you need less than 5 yards to get a first down, the best option is to throw it 40 yards downfield.  

 

For the 2023 season with 18 interceptions, 7 were on 1st down, 4 were on 2nd down, 6 on 3rd down, and 1 on 4th down.  Out of these last 7, only 2 on the interceptions meet the criteria:

 

Game 1 vs Jets 3rd and 8 from the Bills 31, intercepted 60 yards down field

Game 5 vs Jaguars 3rd and 15 from the Bills 41, intercepted 52 yards down field.

 

All the other 3rd down interceptions went less than 16 yards pass the line of scrimmage (2 were with the line of scrimmage in field goal range). The 4th down pass was from the Dolphin 35 and was a 4th and 2.

 

For the 2022 season with 14 interceptions, 3 were on 1st down, 6 were on 2nd down, 4 were on 3rd down and 1 was on 4th down.  None of the 3rd and 4th down interceptions went further than 20 yards pass the line of scrimmage and 2 of the 3rd down interceptions.

 

Of course, there are other reasons why an interception is justifiable, for example, 1 of the 2023 interceptions was a hail mary and you can argue you have to force it on 4th down but I don't feel the arm punt excuse is valid.

 

 

 

Just to point out that there's another category of justifiable "arm punt", which is the "hail mary" or deep pass as time expires at the half

 

In general, I don't like the idea of "arm punts" because while the punt coverage team is practiced in covering the field and minimizing the opponent's gain, that is not true of the offense 

[Sammy Watkins' Rib]

7 hours ago, Billy Claude said:

There's been a lot of talk about how many of Josh Allen's interceptions are just as good as punts.  I was curious as to how true this is so I looked at the data for the last two seasons.  To summarize, the idea of a "arm punt" is greatly exaggerated, only 2 out of 32 interceptions met my criteria as an arm punt.  Details are given below:

 

I counted an arm punt as (1) at least 3rd down  (2) outside field goal range (outside opponent's 40 yard line) (3) intercepted at least 35 yards past the line of scrimmage (4) at least 5 yards to go.  This last criteria is because I find it hard to believe that if you need less than 5 yards to get a first down, the best option is to throw it 40 yards downfield.  

 

For the 2023 season with 18 interceptions, 7 were on 1st down, 4 were on 2nd down, 6 on 3rd down, and 1 on 4th down.  Out of these last 7, only 2 on the interceptions meet the criteria:

 

Game 1 vs Jets 3rd and 8 from the Bills 31, intercepted 60 yards down field

Game 5 vs Jaguars 3rd and 15 from the Bills 41, intercepted 52 yards down field.

 

All the other 3rd down interceptions went less than 16 yards pass the line of scrimmage (2 were with the line of scrimmage in field goal range). The 4th down pass was from the Dolphin 35 and was a 4th and 2.

 

For the 2022 season with 14 interceptions, 3 were on 1st down, 6 were on 2nd down, 4 were on 3rd down and 1 was on 4th down.  None of the 3rd and 4th down interceptions went further than 20 yards pass the line of scrimmage and 2 of the 3rd down interceptions.

 

Of course, there are other reasons why an interception is justifiable, for example, 1 of the 2023 interceptions was a hail mary and you can argue you have to force it on 4th down but I don't feel the arm punt excuse is valid.

 

 

missing the arm punt from the commanders game right? That was text book arm punt.

 

3rd and 20 from the Bills 40. Intercepted at the Washington 19 for no gain.

[Sammy Watkins' Rib]

4 hours ago, FireChans said:

Sure, but the rate of holding, roughing the punter, blocks in the back, muffed punts is all much much much higher than any negative things happening after an interception.

 

All I know is TBD’s definitely starting acting like TO’s don’t matter when they got a QB who turns it over a ton.  

Counter point, you have zero shot of flipping the field with a PI on a deep shot on 3rd down if you don’t take it. Those plays are rare but just as likely as gaining a first on a punt do to a defensive penalty. 

[Sammy Watkins' Rib]

The arm punt narrative popped up early in the season last year. Allen had three of them (OP for some reason left out the one against the Commanders) in the first five games of the season. They were very noticeable in a short span of games to start the season.

 

Then there was the Hail Mary in the second jets game and the desperation fourth down INT against the Dolphins. That’s five right there that were basically non factors in the outcome of the game and field position. Not sure if that is above league average but it does seem like one or two above league average.

 

but again, I think it was the very noticeable three arm punts in the first five games that made the term become a thing. 

[Sammy Watkins' Rib]

7 hours ago, Billy Claude said:

 

For the 2023 season with 18 interceptions, 7 were on 1st down, 4 were on 2nd down, 6 on 3rd down, and 1 on 4th down.  Out of these last 7, only 2 on the interceptions meet the criteria:

 

This is also wrong. 6 on first down and 7 on 3rd down.

[Billy Claude]

4 hours ago, DabillsDaBillsDaBills said:

 

You missed this one

 

3rd & 20 at BUF 40

(6:27 - 3rd) (Shotgun) J.Allen pass deep left intended for G.Davis INTERCEPTED by K.Fuller at WAS 19. K.Fuller to WAS 19 for no gain (G.Davis). WAS-K.Fuller was injured during the play.

 

I remember a post on Reddit someone put together a list for the top 5 least damaging INTs of the season for the entire league. Josh had 3 of the top 5. So yea, throwing 3 arm punt INTs over the season isn't some huge number, but when Josh has thrown more of those than the rest of the league combined I think it's a fair thing to bring up. 

 

 

1 hour ago, Sammy Watkins' Rib said:

missing the arm punt from the commanders game right? That was text book arm punt.

 

3rd and 20 from the Bills 40. Intercepted at the Washington 19 for no gain.

 

 

You are right.   I did miss that one.  For some reason I mistakenly had it listed as being on first down.  I have fixed the original post to correct for this.

 

A  bit strange that the three "arm punts" all happened with in five games of each other.  I wonder if the coaches talked to him about it.

 

 

Edited May 25 by Billy Claude

[Sammy Watkins' Rib]

9 minutes ago, Billy Claude said:

 

 

 

 

You are right.   I did miss that one.  For some reason I mistakenly had it listed as being on first down.  I have fixed the original post to correct for this.

 

A  bit strange that the three "arm punts" all happened with in five games of each other.

 

 

 

yep. It’s what set the narrative. After week 5 it definitely was a thing and a talking point. Then the law of averages evened things out.

[Billy Claude]

19 minutes ago, Sammy Watkins' Rib said:

 

yep. It’s what set the narrative. After week 5 it definitely was a thing and a talking point. Then the law of averages evened things out.

 

Agree.  That's why there seemed to be so many of them.  

[DabillsDaBillsDaBills]

2 hours ago, Billy Claude said:

 

 

 

 

You are right.   I did miss that one.  For some reason I mistakenly had it listed as being on first down.  I have fixed the original post to correct for this.

 

A  bit strange that the three "arm punts" all happened with in five games of each other.  I wonder if the coaches talked to him about it.

 

 

 

And for what it's worth in the Jaguars game Diggs was actually open. Allen made a decent throw and it got wrestled away from Diggs