Dan Orlovsky: Bills offensive weapons are top five in the AFC, too many are sleeping on this team

[Craig Oi]

IDK, break it down to simple math...Do you think the Bills top 9 can collectively avg 500 yds each? That's 4wrs,2te's,&2rbs. That's 4,500 yds... Counting the other guys on the roster... the math seems pretty solid to me...

Edited May 25 by Craig Oi

[Doc Brown]

8 hours ago, MikePJ76 said:

I am not trying to start a fight but what exactly does Aiyuk bring to the table that Samuels does not?  You can make the case Samuels is better because of his abilities in the rushing game.  Aiyuk has returned punts and samuels has returned kicks.   The big difference to me is that Aiyuk has been in offensive heaven in shannahan's offense and samuels has been in NFL purgatory in D.C.

Aiyuk is significantly better and is a true #1 who I felt was even withheld in SF's offense.  Much better route runner.  Much better against press coverage.  A true threat to all levels of the field.

[NewEra]

1 hour ago, Dr. Who said:

Until the playoffs. And also, while it was an impressive run to overcome devastating injuries and Dorsey as OC, I don't think white-knuckle must win games the second half of the season ought to be the norm for the Buffalo Bills with Josh Allen at qb. There's no way to know before the fact, but I remain unimpressed with the WR room. I don't think it's been managed well. Those who are satisfied find it convenient to use second half Diggs and disappointing Davis as the standard for comparison. I don't grant that. The proper measure ought to be what a truly superior WR room would look like.

 

By a more objective criteria, the top of our WR room is not good. With apologies to my pal @NewEra, I just don't think the possibility (and that's all it can be at this point), that the bottom half of the room is better than in past years makes up for the obvious lack of proven excellence at the top. Maybe Brady schemes guys open and TE and RB take up the slack. Maybe we are so diversified, the offense is difficult to plan for. Great, none of that answers to the inadequacies of the WR room. Having a genuine WR1 doesn't make the new strategy obsolete, it just gives you more firepower to work with, and the benefit of a plus level talent that demands attention, and can make those elite plays that only the very few "freakazoid" types can accomplish.

 

Maybe Coleman progresses faster than I suppose, and I hope he does. I don't think he is a replacement for Diggs. He is an upgrade for Davis. They don't have a replacement for what Diggs was when he was actually contributing to the offense. I agree that getting rid of his toxic character that manifest last year is a plus, and not forcing balls to a player that was not playing up to his past performance is also an opportunity for Josh Allen to make more mature and intelligent selections. He hasn't always done that, for whatever reason.

 

In sum, thriving is still a very rosy best case projection. No one who is a Bills' fan doesn't want that to occur, but if it happens this year, a lot of low probability bets have to work out well.

 

 

I don’t think the bottom half makes up for the lack of talent at the top. I said we are deeper at WR this year…..not better.

 

Why is the term “deep” so hard to comprehend 🤷🏻‍♂️ 

Edited May 25 by NewEra

[NewEra]

3 hours ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

 

 

 

I think the whole concept of the Bills having a "deeper" WR corps thing started when they signed Curtis Samuel and everyone assumed they would also select a WR in round 1.........and probably trade up to get one of the top 4-5.

 

Samuel was going to be WR4......coming off another 600+ yard season.

 

Yeah, that's good depth.

 

But then they traded Diggs and ended up with the 8th best WR off the board(a younger player who looks like a project in Coleman).

 

Now, the Bills just have a whole bunch of guys who have never even had a single 900 yard season in the NFL for the first time since the mid 1980's.    Coleman never even hit 800 yards in college.    

 

Guys coming off 200-300 yard seasons and projecting to be your 4th and 5th WR is not notable "depth" either.    

 

What they have is a very suspect WR corps.

Yes, they are suspect as a group- I never said that they weren’t.  That doesn’t mean WR4-6 this year can’t be better than last years.  Last years WR4-6 wasn’t even a WR4-6 it was WR4-5…..which just makes more point even stronger.  This years is deeper than last year.  It’s just not as good 1-5(6).

[BADOLBILZ]

1 hour ago, NewEra said:

Yes, they are suspect as a group- I never said that they weren’t.  That doesn’t mean WR4-6 this year can’t be better than last years.  Last years WR4-6 wasn’t even a WR4-6 it was WR4-5…..which just makes more point even stronger.  This years is deeper than last year.  It’s just not as good 1-5(6).

 

Yeah the downside of more slightly better scrubs is that they probably have to keep 6 and see how it sorts out.   Last year they only HAD to keep 5 WR because the top 3 WR produced 2500+ yards and Harty was the starting punt returner.   So they might lose 2 more roster spots out of the deal.    

[JerseyBills]

Adding a guy like MVS as our 4th/5th WR is great..

 

We might not be as top heavy but overall this is a way more well rounded group.

 

Shakir/Samuel and 2nd year Kincaid could and should be lethal. Feel like all 3 are studs. 

I love our depth compared to prior years

 

MVS had 742 snaps reg season and post season snaps last year

Their #1 WR , Rice had 787 total snaps

 

He'll obviously have a much more limited and specialized role. Hoping he can shine in that type of role

[Einstein's Dog]

3 hours ago, Doc Brown said:

Aiyuk is significantly better and is a true #1 who I felt was even withheld in SF's offense.  Much better route runner.  Much better against press coverage.  A true threat to all levels of the field.

And an added benefit of adding a top WR is it pushes Hollins/MVS/Claypool further down the depth chart.

[Einstein's Dog]

On 5/24/2024 at 9:00 PM, BADOLBILZ said:

 

Offseason mindset.    The deeper we get into it, the more delusional fans get.    

 

I think the problem is posters dealing with this tautology:

1.  Beane is a great GM

2. A great GM will not have C Samuels as the teams top WR during Josh’s prime

3.  The Bills will get a top tier WR.

 

Now for some reason most posters don’t think #3 is happening (not me mind you), and they do not want to adjust #1, so all kinds of excuses come out to work around #2.

 

 It gets embarrassing at times, things like- the new trend is to have a collection of JAGs at WR, or since Diggs and Davis weren’t good the second half we should replace them with non-good players.  And now the lets make Josh a dink and dunk specialist.  It’s getting ridiculous.

 

[NewEra]

1 hour ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

Yeah the downside of more slightly better scrubs is that they probably have to keep 6 and see how it sorts out.   Last year they only HAD to keep 5 WR because the top 3 WR produced 2500+ yards and Harty was the starting punt returner.   So they might lose 2 more roster spots out of the deal.    

Sweet.  Still doesn’t make last years wrs deeper than this years. 

 

Not sure what the debate is here.  I never said this years WRs are better than last years. I said they were deeper.

 

Last year was their last run with the boys that transformed the franchise from lovable losers to SB contenders.  They sacrificed some cap in order to give themselves another shot with them.  It was time to move on from Diggs and there weren’t many moves they could’ve made (for a legit WR1) that wouldn’t have sacrificed long term sustainability in order to have a better WR corps in 24.   The moves they made were to give them a better chance to win with Josh over the next 5-6 years rather than in 24-25 while possibly sacrificing opportunities after that.  
 

As fans, we should realize that this sort of thing is inevitable.  You pay your QB 50M, s*** flows downstream and difficult decisions have to be made.  Sacrifices will have to be made.  That’s life in the salary cap NfL 
 

 

Edited May 26 by NewEra

[LABILLBACKER]

Our wrs will be challenging to attack considering opposing DC's won't have a clue who to bracket from week to week. Hopefully everyone stays healthy and focused as Josh spreads the wealth. Be gotta whole bunch of WR3's.......

[Richard Noggin]

5 hours ago, Dr. Who said:

Until the playoffs. And also, while it was an impressive run to overcome devastating injuries and Dorsey as OC, I don't think white-knuckle must win games the second half of the season ought to be the norm for the Buffalo Bills with Josh Allen at qb. There's no way to know before the fact, but I remain unimpressed with the WR room. I don't think it's been managed well. Those who are satisfied find it convenient to use second half Diggs and disappointing Davis as the standard for comparison. I don't grant that. The proper measure ought to be what a truly superior WR room would look like.

 

By a more objective criteria, the top of our WR room is not good. With apologies to my pal @NewEra, I just don't think the possibility (and that's all it can be at this point), that the bottom half of the room is better than in past years makes up for the obvious lack of proven excellence at the top. Maybe Brady schemes guys open and TE and RB take up the slack. Maybe we are so diversified, the offense is difficult to plan for. Great, none of that answers to the inadequacies of the WR room. Having a genuine WR1 doesn't make the new strategy obsolete, it just gives you more firepower to work with, and the benefit of a plus level talent that demands attention, and can make those elite plays that only the very few "freakazoid" types can accomplish.

 

Maybe Coleman progresses faster than I suppose, and I hope he does. I don't think he is a replacement for Diggs. He is an upgrade for Davis. They don't have a replacement for what Diggs was when he was actually contributing to the offense. I agree that getting rid of his toxic character that manifest last year is a plus, and not forcing balls to a player that was not playing up to his past performance is also an opportunity for Josh Allen to make more mature and intelligent selections. He hasn't always done that, for whatever reason.

 

In sum, thriving is still a very rosy best case projection. No one who is a Bills' fan doesn't want that to occur, but if it happens this year, a lot of low probability bets have to work out well.

 

 

 

Completely understand a lot of what you're arguing here. The top of the Bills WR room lacks a proven #1 target who demands defensive attention. But each of the last two seasons, the Bills' elite WR1 faded hard down the stretch and in the playoffs. And their WR2's lack of consistency and efficiency was often costly. And tbh, most defenses were NOT doing much doubling of Diggs and Davis. So really, the Bills don't have a heavy lift in improving upon their top-of-the-depth-chart productivity. It was already significantly spreading out down the stretch. They've now got a few long boundary guys with some serious talent but also some questions, and they've got a couple dynamic motion/slot/z&y guys who could be important chain movers and chess pieces. 

 

This of course ignores a potential #1 passing target in Kincaid, and a very solid #2 TE in Knox. And also RBs with serious receiving chops. 

 

I like Allen having a quieter array of receiving egos on the field and on the sideline; I like him being the alpha now. Watch him take control...

 

8 minutes ago, LABILLBACKER said:

Our wrs will be challenging to attack considering opposing DC's won't have a clue who to bracket from week to week. Hopefully everyone stays healthy and focused as Josh spreads the wealth. Be gotta whole bunch of WR3's.......

 

Incredibly interested in how defenses will play the Bills this season, and of course interested in how the Bills will attack those defenses. I expect a mix of 12 and 11 personnel groups and a mix of motions and alignments, including condensed formations and some use of heavy and 2-back groupings. A major question that your post and so many others leads us to is: do we have any guys who will step up on high leverage down-and-distance snaps and win their reps? Will the offense (and Allen) identify and utilize its as yet unproven advantages while overcoming its perceived weaknesses?

 

[Rampant Buffalo]

Think about the Bills' offensive weapons. Which ones would you rate as above-average? Which ones are elite?

 

Above-average

Dalton Kincaid (on the threshold of becoming elite)

James Cook

Shakir (Above-average as a slot receiver only. Below-average as a boundary WR.)

 

Elite

No one (yet)

 

What about the draft picks? I don't want to start labeling our draft picks "above average" or "elite," before they've played a single down of NFL football. That's counting your chickens before they've hatched.

 

The Bills' best offensive weapon is Dalton Kincaid. Other than him, the only other above-average weapons are a speed RB in the form of Cook, and a good slot receiver in the form of Shakir. I'm not familiar enough with the other teams in the AFC to know if that's top 5 or not. But, you'd think it wouldn't be.

 

[BillsFan2313]

On 5/25/2024 at 3:24 PM, Thrivefourfive said:

Yes, Andrews. He’s been TE1 in stretches. Injuries and JACKSON have held him back. The Bills have nobody like him. They might, but we can’t seriously say the Kincaid will be as good as Andrews is next season. We hope he is, but that’s a HUGE projection. 

 

Ok

[Sweats]

On 5/24/2024 at 11:23 AM, Process said:

Not a crazy take at all. Our group is no where near as bad as people are making it out to be. Well rounded and deep with speed, size, and a potentially elite TE. 

 

Miami and Houston are clearly at the top but I would take our skill position players over Baltimore and maybe even Cincinnati and NYJ. 

 

 

 

 

 

Miami is clearly at the top, are they?........the Miami media hype machine blows their offensive stats out of proportion every year and every year, good teams steamroll them.

What has changed with the Fins in terms of O weapons from this year from the past 3? They have good, fast WR's, however, they still have Tua.

No idea how Miami is "clearly" at the top of the list.

 

#wtfconfused

[stinky finger]

On 5/24/2024 at 4:33 PM, MikePJ76 said:

You might know him by his fancy name.  STEFON

 

 

The most important thing going into every season and after every season is to be at the top of the rankings of weapons by the backwards hat wearing youtube scouts who watch film.

 

Don Shula and Bill Parcells used to talk about this all the time.  

[nedboy7]

From SI 2024 win predictions...

 

Buffalo Bills: 10.5
Prediction: Over

The departure of Stefon Diggs might make the Bills better in 2024. Josh Allen often forced throws to Diggs and it occasionally led to turnovers and got the offense out of rhythm. Buffalo turned its season around last year after offensive coordinator Joe Brady assembled a less-is-more system with Allen that featured more of running back James Cook. The defense, however, could have issues after the team parted with many key veterans in the offseason. Overall, there’s plenty of talent on the roster to take a chance on Buffalo winning more than 10 games with one of the best signal-callers in the NFL. 

 

Were Diggs or Gabe really elite last year?  I think we will be just fine with what we have. 

Edited May 27 by nedboy7

[TheWei44]

2 hours ago, Sweats said:

 

 

 

 

Miami is clearly at the top, are they?........the Miami media hype machine blows their offensive stats out of proportion every year and every year, good teams steamroll them.

What has changed with the Fins in terms of O weapons from this year from the past 3? They have good, fast WR's, however, they still have Tua.

No idea how Miami is "clearly" at the top of the list.

 

#wtfconfused

This highlights whether we're taking WR/TEs/RBs only or those+QB.  Totally fine to focus on the former, but the latter is obviously critical too and a different question.  Since we have a "top 2/3" QB, we don't necessarily need the absolutely most elite set of WR/TE/RBs.  And we have a very good offensive line too.

[Sammy Watkins' Rib]

On 5/24/2024 at 10:24 AM, Logic said:

Yeah it seems as though Orlovsky's comment is based on a decent amount of projection.

IF Coleman hits and IF Knox returns to his '21-'22 form and IF Shakir elevates his game and IF Kincaid takes a sophomore leap...then the Bills could reasonably be a top five group in the AFC.

If we're going solely by proven NFL production, it's pretty hard to argue top five with a straight face.

 

I think you project because Josh Allen is still this teams QB. It's similar to Hill leaving KC and Kelce aging. Mahomes and KC were always still going to put up yards and points. It was just going to look different and the ball would be distributed differently. The same will be true in Buffalo. Don't know if it means one or two players explode this year and become top 10 or top 5 at their position or if it just means the ball will be spread around a lot and we have like 4 players all in that 800-1100 range. The yards are going to be there which means you project some of these skill players the Bills have to look a lot better than how they currently appear on paper. 

[eball]

Sorry, I still don't see the huge fuss.  They lost Diggs -- who was a shell of himself down the stretch and in the playoffs and was clearly causing locker room tension.  They lost Davis, who was so inconsistent you could never count on him.  They lost Harty and Sherfield, who did nothing (but thanks for that PR Deonte).

 

Shakir blossomed late last year and one can only expect that to continue.  Kincaid was everything we hoped and enters year two without having to learn the NFL game.  Samuel is an above average WR who has never played with a decent QB.  Coleman wasn't the guy "everybody" wanted but he's hardly what I would call a "project."  Cook had a breakout season.  Ray Davis looks like he could immediately contribute in the passing game.  And Knox is Knox -- certainly fine as a 4th or 5th weapon, and can create mismatches.

 

With Samuel and Shakir you have speed.  With Coleman and (Hollins or Claypool or MVS) you have size.  With Kincaid you have an emerging star.  And, as noted in this thread, the overall depth at WR1-6 is better than it was last year.  Who cares that none of the current WRs have had a 900-yard season?  How have their situations changed this year?  What is different than before?  For nearly all of them it's pretty significant -- most notably playing with an all-world QB (except for MVS).

 

Everyone hung up on there being no "true" WR1 is just already looking for excuses before the season even begins -- the "on paper" crowd.  I'll lean towards potential and different circumstances leading to solid results.

 

I expect the Bills passing game to be dangerous and difficult to defend, with a legitimate go-to option in Kincaid.

 

[akinko_kd]

Last year KC's offensive rank was 9th.
In terms of scoring rank, it was 15th.
Still, KC was able to win because of their defense and good coaching.

BUF that is inferior in both (especially in the playoffs) will have to make up for it with something.