Dan Orlovsky: Bills offensive weapons are top five in the AFC, too many are sleeping on this team

[Dr. Who]

8 minutes ago, HappyDays said:

 

I think they're trying to copy the KC offense of the past two seasons. Funnel the passing offense through the TEs and RBs. MVS as the field stretcher but rarely actually throw the ball deep. Big outside, quick/fast inside, with a primary TE that effectively plays WR. Grind out efficient drives, don't make mistakes, the QB will make a few magic plays to will his team down the field. That's what the ingredients tell me the plan is.

 

I obviously don't think we have the offensive coaching or IOL to execute that style of offense, but I think that's the plan. Of course the Chiefs themselves barely managed to execute that plan last year but maybe we'll show them up?

Yep, for sure, and our defense is going to win us games in the playoffs, like always.

[FireChans]

6 minutes ago, HappyDays said:

 

I think they're trying to copy the KC offense of the past two seasons. Funnel the passing offense through the TEs and RBs. MVS as the field stretcher but rarely actually throw the ball deep. Big outside, quick/fast inside, with a primary TE that effectively plays WR. Grind out efficient drives, don't make mistakes, the QB will make a few magic plays to will his team down the field. That's what the ingredients tell me the plan is.

 

I obviously don't think we have the offensive coaching or IOL to execute that style of offense, but I think that's the plan. Of course the Chiefs themselves barely managed to execute that plan last year but maybe we'll show them up?

Was that the Chiefs plan though? They have drafted Worthy, Moore, Rice in the last 3 years. Signed Juju, Brown, MVS etc. Traded for Toney. Traded for Hardman.

 

I’d argue the Chiefs WR room the last two seasons did not go according to plan, at all. They failed to execute their plan.
 

Intentionally copying the result of an execution failure is certainly one strategy lol.

[Royale with Cheese]

38 minutes ago, FireChans said:

That’s all well and good, but do you think it’s reasonable to say that Shakir is going to continue to be a rising star because he was pretty good under Brady post Denver, and also ignore that Josh Allen was a much worse passer under Brady post Denver?

 

Like I said, I’m not killing Brady because I agree it’s not really reasonable to expect a whole new offense midseason. But is there any concern there at all? Josh was basically posting 2018/2019 numbers during that stretch.

 

I'm not ignoring it.  There was something broken in the offense, specifically the passing and why the offensive coordinator was fired.  Yeah, Allen wasn't sharp but he was still top 5 in MVP because he had a lot of total production.  Patrick Mahomes just had his worst statistical year and won another Super Bowl.  There isn't a great QB in the history of the league that didn't have bad stretches or down years.

 

I'm not concerned as concerned as you because again, that wasn't Brady's offense and its now obvious Diggs was disgruntled.   Those little screen passes to him was just to please him and get him the ball.  The bond they once had was gone and so was the on field chemistry.  

 

I will be concerned if the first month we start slow because that's now 100% Brady's offense and play calling.  He doesn't have excuses now.

[Alphadawg7]

1 hour ago, FireChans said:

So are we just ignoring that Josh Allen played much worse when we did this?  Pretty much every passing number fell off a cliff.

 

Are we just going to ignore we went from a long way from the playoffs at 5-5 with losses to losers like the Jets, Broncos, etc...to winning the division and the #2 seed?  

 

The only stat I care about is the Win column.  

 

7 minutes ago, FireChans said:

Was that the Chiefs plan though? They have drafted Worthy, Moore, Rice in the last 3 years. Signed Juju, Brown, MVS etc. Traded for Toney. Traded for Hardman.

 

I’d argue the Chiefs WR room the last two seasons did not go according to plan, at all. They failed to execute their plan.
 

Intentionally copying the result of an execution failure is certainly one strategy lol.

 

Wait...you think he meant we are trying to copy their failures?  Was that your real response to him?  Lol.  

Edited May 29 by Alphadawg7

[FireChans]

1 minute ago, Alphadawg7 said:

 

Are we just going to ignore we went from a long way from the playoffs at 5-5 with losses to losers like the Jets, Broncos, etc...to winning the division and the #2 seed?  

 

The only stat I care about is the Win column.  

I think that had a lot to do with Josh rushing 9 times a game.

 

I’m not sure that’s a sustainable season long pace to win a Super Bowl, personally. Which I care a lot more about.

 

9 minutes ago, Royale with Cheese said:

 

I'm not ignoring it.  There was something broken in the offense, specifically the passing and why the offensive coordinator was fired.  Yeah, Allen wasn't sharp but he was still top 5 in MVP because he had a lot of total production.  Patrick Mahomes just had his worst statistical year and won another Super Bowl.  There isn't a great QB in the history of the league that didn't have bad stretches or down years.

 

I'm not concerned as concerned as you because again, that wasn't Brady's offense and its now obvious Diggs was disgruntled.   Those little screen passes to him was just to please him and get him the ball.  The bond they once had was gone and so was the on field chemistry.  

 

I will be concerned if the first month we start slow because that's now 100% Brady's offense and play calling.  He doesn't have excuses now.

I’m not worried about them starting slow. I’m worried about forcing Allen to be Superman from the jump. 

[Alphadawg7]

15 minutes ago, FireChans said:

I think that had a lot to do with Josh rushing 9 times a game.

 

I’m not sure that’s a sustainable season long pace to win a Super Bowl, personally. Which I care a lot more about.

Well I do agree that Allen rushing that much is not ideal.  But I also felt they tried to neuter Allen prior to that which I think is even worse. 
 

They need to let Allen be Allen, and the mere threat of his running makes defense have to play him different.  So you want the threat to still be real while also keeping him from avg 9 carries a game.  
 

Remember, Brady was working out of Dorsey’s offense, so let’s see what he does this year with Allen and the array of weapons on this offense.  I don’t think Allen will be running as much, but I also think they restrict Allen from instinctively taking off the way it felt under Dorsey.  

[julian]

2 hours ago, FireChans said:

So are we just ignoring that Josh Allen played much worse when we did this?  Pretty much every passing number fell off a cliff.

5-5 prior to doing that and 7-2 after

[NoSaint]

7 hours ago, Alphadawg7 said:

 

Are we just going to ignore we went from a long way from the playoffs at 5-5 with losses to losers like the Jets, Broncos, etc...to winning the division and the #2 seed?  

 

The only stat I care about is the Win column.  

 

 

Wait...you think he meant we are trying to copy their failures?  Was that your real response to him?  Lol.  

the only stat I care about is wins over a short stretch is a great way to not sustainably win over a long stretch. 

[Sammy Watkins' Rib]

12 hours ago, FireChans said:

The offense was so talented in 2023 that Allen had to rush 9 times per game for the last 7 games to save the season and get us in the playoffs.

 

For those keeping score at home, that’s a 153 carry pace on a full season. That would’ve ranked 37th in the NFL last year. Elite RB2 type numbers.

 

And as much as Shakir and Kincaid “came on” during Brady’s reign, Allen had a putrid completion percentage of 60%, threw 10 TD’s to 7 INT’s, with a passer rating of 85. If this is Josh Allen released with Kincaid and Shakir as the focal points, it sounds like it’s gonna be a disaster lmao.

 

Which is the anomaly below?

 

2021: 6.1 vs. 8.7

2022: 7.6 vs. 8

2023: 4.8 vs. 9

 

Those are Allen's rushing attempts per game in each of the last three seasons. The latter number in each year are his attempts in the final 7 games of that regular season. The former number are the attempts per game prior to the final seven. Allen rushing more later in the season is nothing new and he didn't run significantly more in the final seven games then anything we saw in 2021 or 2022 seasons. What was significantly different was how few times he ran the ball to start the 2023 season. 

 

18 minutes ago, NoSaint said:

the only stat I care about is wins over a short stretch is a great way to not sustainably win over a long stretch. 

 

What? 

[NoSaint]

11 minutes ago, Sammy Watkins' Rib said:

 

Which is the anomaly below?

 

2021: 6.1 vs. 8.7

2022: 7.6 vs. 8

2023: 4.8 vs. 9

 

Those are Allen's rushing attempts per game in each of the last three seasons. The latter number in each year are his attempts in the final 7 games of that regular season. The former number are the attempts per game prior to the final seven. Allen rushing more later in the season is nothing new and he didn't run significantly more in the final seven games then anything we saw in 2021 or 2022 seasons. What was significantly different was how few times he ran the ball to start the 2023 season. 

 

 

What? 

If you only care about wins over a month or two and give no consideration to how they are happening - it’s often a fast track ignoring problems that will catch up to you. 
 

as FC points out, we were winning but on the back of Josh running well and struggling in the passing game. Is that sustainable long term or just a quick bandaid? 
 

when fitz was getting every bounce and started with a lot of wins but a lot of underlying red flags, did those catch up for the “I only care about wins” crowd?

 

yea, it’s one thing to say it about a random game here or there but eventually the other stats matter and if you are winning more than the stats indicate you should- there’s a good chance of regressing back to the outcomes other stats would predict (especially with questionable passing stats) 

[Sammy Watkins' Rib]

12 minutes ago, NoSaint said:

If you only care about wins over a month or two and give no consideration to how they are happening - it’s often a fast track ignoring problems that will catch up to you. 
 

as FC points out, we were winning but on the back of Josh running well and struggling in the passing game. Is that sustainable long term or just a quick bandaid? 
 

when fitz was getting every bounce and started with a lot of wins but a lot of underlying red flags, did those catch up for the “I only care about wins” crowd?

 

yea, it’s one thing to say it about a random game here or there but eventually the other stats matter and if you are winning more than the stats indicate you should- there’s a good chance of regressing back to the outcomes other stats would predict (especially with questionable passing stats) 

 

FC pointed out nothing. Allen ran a similar number of times to end each of the last three seasons. 

 

Furthermore:

 

2021: end of season 5 game winning streak 

2022: end of season 8 game winning streak 

2023: end of season 6 game winning streak 

 

wins over a month or two are short streaks? That's half the NFL regular season. I don't believe it is accurate to define those winning streaks as short term success. Without those winning streaks the Bills seasons are drastically different. 

[Royale with Cheese]

9 hours ago, FireChans said:

I’m not worried about them starting slow. I’m worried about forcing Allen to be Superman from the jump. 

 

Allen doesn't need to be Superman.  He has enough talent to win with this unit and other QB's have won without an All Star cast of offensive personnel.

Edited May 29 by Royale with Cheese

[FireChans]

5 minutes ago, Royale with Cheese said:

 

Allen doesn't need to be Superman.  He has enough talent to win with this unit and other QB's have won without an All Star cast of offensive personnel.

I would argue he needed to be Superman last year. 

1 hour ago, Sammy Watkins' Rib said:

 

Which is the anomaly below?

 

2021: 6.1 vs. 8.7

2022: 7.6 vs. 8

2023: 4.8 vs. 9

 

Those are Allen's rushing attempts per game in each of the last three seasons. The latter number in each year are his attempts in the final 7 games of that regular season. The former number are the attempts per game prior to the final seven. Allen rushing more later in the season is nothing new and he didn't run significantly more in the final seven games then anything we saw in 2021 or 2022 seasons. What was significantly different was how few times he ran the ball to start the 2023 season. 

 

 

What? 

Go look at the anomalies in the passing game.

[Sammy Watkins' Rib]

9 hours ago, FireChans said:

 

 

I’m not worried about them starting slow. I’m worried about forcing Allen to be Superman from the jump. 

but I thought you were concerned about Allen being an also ran in the postseason because the bills can never secure the one seed?

 

You’re not gonna get the one if you start slow.

 

They have done a good job of ending the season on significant winning streaks.  but it’s been the start of the season or an October /November stretch that has killed them.

 

 

[FireChans]

33 minutes ago, Sammy Watkins' Rib said:

 

FC pointed out nothing. Allen ran a similar number of times to end each of the last three seasons. 

 

Furthermore:

 

2021: end of season 5 game winning streak 

2022: end of season 8 game winning streak 

2023: end of season 6 game winning streak 

 

wins over a month or two are short streaks? That's half the NFL regular season. I don't believe it is accurate to define those winning streaks as short term success. Without those winning streaks the Bills seasons are drastically different. 

This is very funny because this is evidence it’s more about Allen running than the OC resulting in wins.

2 minutes ago, Sammy Watkins' Rib said:

but I thought you were concerned about Allen being an also ran in the postseason because the bills can never secure the one seed?

 

You’re not gonna get the one if you start slow.

 

They have done a good job of ending the season on significant winning streaks.  but it’s been the start of the season or an October /November stretch that has killed them.

 

 

I don’t think they are gonna start slow. Huh

[Sammy Watkins' Rib]

3 minutes ago, FireChans said:

I would argue he needed to be Superman last year. 

Go look at the anomalies in the passing game.

More difficult to pass late in the season? Shocking.

[FireChans]

3 minutes ago, Sammy Watkins' Rib said:

More difficult to pass late in the season? Shocking.

Somehow it wasn’t as difficult the 3 years before.

 

Global cooling?

[SaulGoodman]

On 5/24/2024 at 10:42 AM, warrior9 said:

Per the bolded: 

 

THE TITANS?! Dude, they have Will Levis at QB a 32 year old Hopkins and Ridley that disappeared in many games last year. Better weapons than the Bills? 

 

Jags?! Who on their team would you take over who we have on our team at any skill position? 

 

Texans: I can understand this but they had the worst schedule in the league last year and they don't this year. It will be a telling year for them. 

 

It's so odd to me that your sentiment would be SO different if we drafted a guy that looks like this instead of Coleman (and yes, you wouldn't be as critical at ALL if we drafted this twig) : 

 

It’s not that hard to add a few lbs with NFL training and resources. 
 

Even if he doesn’t, Desean Jackson was a twig. Would you have passed on him too?

[Sammy Watkins' Rib]

2 minutes ago, FireChans said:

This is very funny because this is evidence it’s more about Allen running than the OC resulting in wins.

 

I don’t think they are gonna start slow. Huh

none of your replies here are making sense to me. What am I missing?
 

why would it be shocking that Allen, one of the most gifted quarterbacks in scrambling and taking off and running, why would that trait coupled with his passing not lead to greater success? 

 

why do you think the bills will not start slow? They lost the opening game of the season in two of the last three years. They could easily start slow.

6 minutes ago, FireChans said:

Somehow it wasn’t as difficult the 3 years before.

 

Global cooling?

so, are you going to provide the numbers? Or are you going to make me look them up and post them? I already provided the rushing attempts breakdown.

[BADOLBILZ]

9 hours ago, Alphadawg7 said:

 

Well my original response was to you saying since 2021...so feels like you swapped to 2020 when you realized Cole and the rest of the WR's not named Diggs didn't do a whole lot.  

 

But overalll, I still say the 2023 offense is better than any year of Allens career in terms of overall talent because there is MORE than receivers on offense.  

 

2020 Diggs vs 2023 Diggs

2020 Diggs may be the best player Allen has played with, but the 2023 team still had Diggs as I said, and his demise is greatly exaggerated when the reality is the change in the OC from Daboll to Dorsey/Brady is substantially more impactful on the different level of production for Diggs as the whole offensive philosophy was different.  So Diggs vs Diggs has a slim difference at best.

 

2nd option:  2020 Cole Beasley vs 2023 Dalton Kincaid

Kincaid put up 81 catches as a rookie to Coles 82...so not a huge difference, but Cole had more yards, so he gets the edge over Kincaid, but its not like its a massive difference.

 

3rd option:  2020 Gabe Davis vs 2023 Gabe Davis 

Now you have Davis vs Davis...I think everyone understands a WR in year 4 is a better player than when he was a rookie...and Davis had more yards and catches in 2023 than he did as WR3 in 2020, so edge to 2023 Davis.

 

4th option:  2020 John Brown vs 2023 Khalil Shakir

Shakir had the superior season, not to mention Shakir had more catches and yards on almost 20 less targets than even Gabe Davis did in 2020, who was the 3rd option in that offense.  And considering Cook had more targets than Shakir, he was technically the 5th option from a targets count perspective, and still put up more rec and yards than Davis did in 2020.  John Brown only played 9 games and didn't produce like he did in previous years when he did play. 

 

And the reality is that Shakir actually led the team in receiving and was the only guy to put up 100 yard game (twice) once Brady became the OC.  Had Brady been the OC the whole season and used Shakir the same, his season would have eclipsed Cole Beasley's too.   

 

But then there is the OL which 2023 was clearly the best OL Allen has ever had to go with also his best RB and run game he has had in his entire career with a 1200 yard rusher in Cook who also was an effective weapon out of the backfield too.  

 

So sorry, the offense is made up of more than just the receivers.  And while 2020 Bills had the best individual WR season which was Diggs best of his career, the 2023 roster overall was better.  

 

 

 

 

The top 5 options that we are discussing.........they put up 232 yards per game receiving in 2020.    The top 5 in 2023 put up 199.   That's a massive difference in explosiveness.  

 

Your revisionist history is perplexing.   The 2020 OL had two stud OT performers with near 80 pff grades.   4 of the 5 starters graded considerably higher than their 2023 counterparts.   Only RG's Brian Winters and OCyrus Torrence graded near evenly(both the poorest).

 

Again,  you have this weird recency bias going on that defies logic/stats/facts.   Everybody with promise and efficiency in lesser roles in 2020 have now proven that they sucked.  So they weren't good.  But everyone who showed some promise in limited roles or as rookie starters in 2023 proved to you that they are going to be great.   Doesn't work that way.