Dan Orlovsky: Bills offensive weapons are top five in the AFC, too many are sleeping on this team

[BADOLBILZ]

13 minutes ago, eball said:

Sorry, I still don't see the huge fuss.  They lost Diggs -- who was a shell of himself down the stretch and in the playoffs and was clearly causing locker room tension.  They lost Davis, who was so inconsistent you could never count on him.  They lost Harty and Sherfield, who did nothing (but thanks for that PR Deonte).

 

Shakir blossomed late last year and one can only expect that to continue.  Kincaid was everything we hoped and enters year two without having to learn the NFL game.  Samuel is an above average WR who has never played with a decent QB.  Coleman wasn't the guy "everybody" wanted but he's hardly what I would call a "project."  Cook had a breakout season.  Ray Davis looks like he could immediately contribute in the passing game.  And Knox is Knox -- certainly fine as a 4th or 5th weapon, and can create mismatches.

 

With Samuel and Shakir you have speed.  With Coleman and (Hollins or Claypool or MVS) you have size.  With Kincaid you have an emerging star.  And, as noted in this thread, the overall depth at WR1-6 is better than it was last year.  Who cares that none of the current WRs have had a 900-yard season?  How have their situations changed this year?  What is different than before?  For nearly all of them it's pretty significant -- most notably playing with an all-world QB (except for MVS).

 

Everyone hung up on there being no "true" WR1 is just already looking for excuses before the season even begins -- the "on paper" crowd.  I'll lean towards potential and different circumstances leading to solid results.

 

I expect the Bills passing game to be dangerous and difficult to defend, with a legitimate go-to option in Kincaid.

 

 

 

Hey, you thought Gabe Davis was going to be outstanding too and mocked the need for the Bills to upgrade on him.

 

Davis left to a chorus of good riddance.  

 

You just don't understand context.

 

The key aspect of their improvement under Brady was reckless abandon for Josh Allen.

 

They ran him over 9 times per game under Brady and were basically playing desperation must-win playoff football for 7 weeks prior to the playoffs even starting.

 

None of what Shakir, Kincaid and Cook did under Brady can be expected to project without assuming Josh Allen rushes for 19-20 rushing TD's on 150-160 carries. 

 

Because that is the pace it took just to keep the chains moving with that pop-gun cast of weapons.

 

And that's not adding in the 20 carries and 3 rush TD Allen needed to produce in the 2 playoff games.

 

The offense was entirely dependent on unsustainable usage of Josh Allen.    

 

And as poorly as Diggs played in that 7 game stretch, his 43 yards per game projects to 741 yards.........which is more than Curtis Samuel or anyone they have on the roster put up last season. 

 

But you don't see the fuss. 😂

 

They CLEARLY needed to get better around Allen.........and have instead leaned into the unsustainable by not adding quality and gambling on a bunch of vets coming off down-to-downright-awful seasons and a project rookie WR who never even put up 800 yards in college season.

 

[LABILLBACKER]

29 minutes ago, akinko_kd said:

Last year KC's offensive rank was 9th.
In terms of scoring rank, it was 15th.
Still, KC was able to win because of their defense and good coaching.

BUF that is inferior in both (especially in the playoffs) will have to make up for it with something.

Yeah....the problem won't likely be the offense.  It will come down to coaching and keeping the defense healthy. Just once I wish Sean could scheme something up to get the better of Andy....Just once in the playoffs!

[ColoradoBills]

I admit it's confusing to me why it's so hard to acknowledge that during the 2nd half of the season Diggs and Davis dragged the offense down.

It's true that the wins the Bills had were close games and not the way fans would like to see and that is directly due to their impotence.

 

Diggs and Davis were on the field the whole time during the 2nd half of the season AND did not contribute anywhere near the type of

offensive output all those snaps should have resulted in.  I look at it as they "handcuffed" Allen and the offense.

 

I have no idea how the offense will fare this year with the WRs they will field but I'm pretty sure if some of these guys are playing down to

the level the Diggs and Davis were playing, they will get a lot less snaps and the "next up" players will get more.  I do hold out hope that at

least 2 of these new WRs play well.  That along with Shakir, Kincaid and Cook gives me a realistic scenario for a good year on offense.

 

Once again, a lot will be determined by how good the OL can be.

[HappyDays]

1 hour ago, eball said:

I'll lean towards potential and different circumstances leading to solid results.

 

Is anybody on the board arguing the offense won't produce "solid results"?

[appoo]

On 5/24/2024 at 11:19 AM, Logic said:

I figured I'd give this its own thread, because this board could use a little hit of positivity going into the weekend. I've been as loud a critic of the Bills' offensive moves as anyone this offseason, so allow me to share a contrary opinion:
 

 

Been proedicting this wouold happen for awhile, been saying it since FA & Draft netted Samuel and Coleman.

 

Love the potential of this offense.

[eball]

4 hours ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

 

Hey, you thought Gabe Davis was going to be outstanding too and mocked the need for the Bills to upgrade on him.

 

Davis left to a chorus of good riddance.  

 

You just don't understand context.

 

The key aspect of their improvement under Brady was reckless abandon for Josh Allen.

 

They ran him over 9 times per game under Brady and were basically playing desperation must-win playoff football for 7 weeks prior to the playoffs even starting.

 

None of what Shakir, Kincaid and Cook did under Brady can be expected to project without assuming Josh Allen rushes for 19-20 rushing TD's on 150-160 carries. 

 

Because that is the pace it took just to keep the chains moving with that pop-gun cast of weapons.

 

And that's not adding in the 20 carries and 3 rush TD Allen needed to produce in the 2 playoff games.

 

The offense was entirely dependent on unsustainable usage of Josh Allen.    

 

And as poorly as Diggs played in that 7 game stretch, his 43 yards per game projects to 741 yards.........which is more than Curtis Samuel or anyone they have on the roster put up last season. 

 

But you don't see the fuss. 😂

 

They CLEARLY needed to get better around Allen.........and have instead leaned into the unsustainable by not adding quality and gambling on a bunch of vets coming off down-to-downright-awful seasons and a project rookie WR who never even put up 800 yards in college season.

 

We can agree to disagree. Brady was thrust into a situation in which he had to figure out a way to deal with a declining, pouty Diggs and while Josh was “unleashed” we also saw a remarkable uptick from Shakir in big moments and effective use of the RBs and Kincaid.

 

Nobody wants to give this season a chance; you’re all just looking at names on paper. You accuse me of having no context but who didn’t expect more from Davis after that breakout playoff game? His disappearance belongs on a TV missing persons show. 
 

I’m the guy who is willing to “wait and see” rather than declaring doom prematurely. You know-it-alls hate people like me who can analyze a situation logically but look for optimism rather than pessimism over something we can’t control. 
 

I’m excited about this season. Go Bills. 

[BADOLBILZ]

3 hours ago, HappyDays said:

 

Is anybody on the board arguing the offense won't produce "solid results"?

 

 

I don't think anyone is.........that's just people lowering the bar from great to good to justify the organization's decisions.

 

But there is a lot of buy-in to this notion that Allen is cut out to be Tom Brady 2.0.........the "point guard".

 

Going thru his reads quickly/decisively.....choosing just the right option.....getting them the ball with pin point accuracy in tight coverage.

 

When the reality is that is NOT his game.    

 

The season came down to Allen staring down slot receiver Khalil Shakir on 2nd and 9 and dirting a pass that needed to go almost 35 yards past the LOS to be a completion..........while Diggs ran free underneath for what would have at worst set up a short 3rd down.

 

Tom Brady wins exactly ZERO SB's with Josh Allen's eye's and touch.   

 

JA is what he is.........and that is GREAT........if they'd just understand that they have a big play QB not an elite game manager.

 

Since 2021 they've put less and less WR talent around Allen........setting him up for failure.

[MasterStrategist]

5 hours ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

 

Hey, you thought Gabe Davis was going to be outstanding too and mocked the need for the Bills to upgrade on him.

 

Davis left to a chorus of good riddance.  

 

You just don't understand context.

 

The key aspect of their improvement under Brady was reckless abandon for Josh Allen.

 

They ran him over 9 times per game under Brady and were basically playing desperation must-win playoff football for 7 weeks prior to the playoffs even starting.

 

None of what Shakir, Kincaid and Cook did under Brady can be expected to project without assuming Josh Allen rushes for 19-20 rushing TD's on 150-160 carries. 

 

Because that is the pace it took just to keep the chains moving with that pop-gun cast of weapons.

 

And that's not adding in the 20 carries and 3 rush TD Allen needed to produce in the 2 playoff games.

 

The offense was entirely dependent on unsustainable usage of Josh Allen.    

 

And as poorly as Diggs played in that 7 game stretch, his 43 yards per game projects to 741 yards.........which is more than Curtis Samuel or anyone they have on the roster put up last season. 

 

But you don't see the fuss. 😂

 

They CLEARLY needed to get better around Allen.........and have instead leaned into the unsustainable by not adding quality and gambling on a bunch of vets coming off down-to-downright-awful seasons and a project rookie WR who never even put up 800 yards in college season.

 

1. You're take on "unsustainable" Josh running is getting old.  It's just what Buffalo does down the stretch every year.  I already proved this in another thread, 60 runs vs 63 (under Daboll vs Brady).  If you want to say Brady and this entire team was in desperation to win mode, that's what it is.  Let's stop calling it unsustainable, it's not their go to offense unless needed

 

2. Playmakers: agree.  Beane has built a group with alot of "ifs" and hope.  Nobody is certain how it will play out, but there is potential for a few that is unknown/untapped: Kincaid, Shakir, Coleman.  Samuel is going to be what he always has been, and hoping something happens with MVS or Claypool.

 

3. I've said it alot, but it comes down to Brady and Josh being less careless with the ball.  Brady is another "if"/hope.

 

To me, its fair to say Beane put himself in this 2024 salary cap pickle and he likely has Pegulas trust into 2025.  So we "hope" he got some of these dart throws correct.

 

It's not as pretty as Orlovsky wants to say, but some pieces are definitely likely to improve, ie Kincaid.  Said same about Cook last offseason.  Shakir I'm 50/50 less optimistic on, and Keon will need some time.  It's going to be a "committee approach", and Brady will need to be a top 5 o coordinator for this to work well

[stuvian]

I'm not expecting any fall off at all. Assuming Shakir is the guy who will stretch defenses the way Diggs did, the underneath game will be unbeatable

[ColoradoBills]

3 hours ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

 

I don't think anyone is.........that's just people lowering the bar from great to good to justify the organization's decisions.

 

But there is a lot of buy-in to this notion that Allen is cut out to be Tom Brady 2.0.........the "point guard".

 

Going thru his reads quickly/decisively.....choosing just the right option.....getting them the ball with pin point accuracy in tight coverage.

 

When the reality is that is NOT his game.    

 

Tom Brady wins exactly ZERO SB's with Josh Allen's eye's and touch.   

 

 

 

What are you talking about?  THEY are not trying to make Josh Allen into Tom Brady.

 

They are trying to broaden Josh's game to include more winning traits.  Even Josh admits he needs to accomplish that.

 

[foreboding]

On 5/24/2024 at 11:23 AM, Logic said:

More Bills positivity this morning:
 

 

 

These are among the handful of non-local reporters who actually do the work and study the team. Most are parrots or just read stats. Like Mina said...."watch the actual games."

[BADOLBILZ]

16 hours ago, MasterStrategist said:

1. You're take on "unsustainable" Josh running is getting old.  It's just what Buffalo does down the stretch every year.  I already proved this in another thread, 60 runs vs 63 (under Daboll vs Brady).  If you want to say Brady and this entire team was in desperation to win mode, that's what it is.  Let's stop calling it unsustainable, it's not their go to offense unless needed

 

2. Playmakers: agree.  Beane has built a group with alot of "ifs" and hope.  Nobody is certain how it will play out, but there is potential for a few that is unknown/untapped: Kincaid, Shakir, Coleman.  Samuel is going to be what he always has been, and hoping something happens with MVS or Claypool.

 

3. I've said it alot, but it comes down to Brady and Josh being less careless with the ball.  Brady is another "if"/hope.

 

To me, its fair to say Beane put himself in this 2024 salary cap pickle and he likely has Pegulas trust into 2025.  So we "hope" he got some of these dart throws correct.

 

It's not as pretty as Orlovsky wants to say, but some pieces are definitely likely to improve, ie Kincaid.  Said same about Cook last offseason.  Shakir I'm 50/50 less optimistic on, and Keon will need some time.  It's going to be a "committee approach", and Brady will need to be a top 5 o coordinator for this to work well

 

 

1. McBeane have pounded home the idea of not wanting Josh running the ball nearly as much as the prior season going into each season since 2020.  It basically cost Ken Dorsey his job.  So tell them it's "old".  They know it's important they just don't want to commit to "building around the QB" as the #1 priority of their organization.   When it obviously should be.  And unfortunately, nobody has run the ball like JA17 has at the QB position and had a long career.   

 

Add that to the fact that he holds the ball longer than anyone(mainly because his targets suck) and you have a recipe for a premature end to a career.    Those increasingly common shoulder/elbow sprains/tears gradually turn into chronic pain and weakness.  It's insane to have a player with this much arm talent and not do whatever is necessary to get back to that 2020 level of talent around him where he existed much more in the pocket.   That guy was going to play QB at a high level until he was 40.   

 

3.  Instead of asking Josh Allen to be Tom Brady("less careless").........give him more weapons.    This offense should be historic with his arm talent.

[SoCal Deek]

Just now, BADOLBILZ said:

 

 

1. McBeane have pounded home the idea of not wanting Josh running the ball nearly as much as the prior season going into each season since 2020.  It basically cost Ken Dorsey his job.  So tell them it's "old".  They know it's important they just don't want to commit to "building around the QB" as the #1 priority of their organization.   When it obviously should be.  And unfortunately, nobody has run the ball like JA17 has at the QB position and had a long career.   

 

Add that to the fact that he holds the ball longer than anyone(mainly because his targets suck) and you have a recipe for a premature end to a career.    Those increasingly common shoulder/elbow sprains/tears gradually turn into chronic pain and weakness.  It's insane to have a player with this much arm talent and not do whatever is necessary to get back to that 2020 level of talent around him where he existed much more in the pocket.   That guy was going to play QB at a high level until he was 40.   

 

3.  Instead of asking Josh Allen to be Tom Brady("less careless").........give him more weapons.    This offense should be historic with his arm talent.

I often wonder if his “targets suck” as you say or if the design of the passing offense is not all that it should be. 

[billsfan89]

The Bills have a nice "quantity" of weapons. They just need Kincaid to emerge as a consistent high end target and Shakir to be a nice "WR2" style threat. Then I think the Bills can get good "complementary" production out of Samuel, Knox, Cook/Ty Johnson, Coleman and MVS (and possibly Claypool). It's a strong core of receivers at the "second and third tier" they just need 1-2 players to emerge as "go to" players. 

 

Going to be interesting to see Josh operate in an offense with more quantity and less quality so to speak. 

[NewEra]

19 hours ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

 

I don't think anyone is.........that's just people lowering the bar from great to good to justify the organization's decisions.

 

No.  It’s people being logical and acknowledging that there’s this thing called a salary cap.  It’s the basis of roster building and teams sometimes take a dip at certain positions.  Like back to back champion chiefs did after trading all world Tyreek Hill.  Their WR unit got worse 2 years in a row.  And they won titles both seasons.  Super talented teams sometimes get worse talent wise.  That’s just reality of the salary cap nfl.  Beane just said it in the athletic interview.  As a GM, you don’t want to max your credit card. He doesn’t want to take his medicine 2 years in a row.  He wants to build a team that can compete for super bowls over time.  

[BillsVet]

1 hour ago, billsfan89 said:

The Bills have a nice "quantity" of weapons. They just need Kincaid to emerge as a consistent high end target and Shakir to be a nice "WR2" style threat. Then I think the Bills can get good "complementary" production out of Samuel, Knox, Cook/Ty Johnson, Coleman and MVS (and possibly Claypool). It's a strong core of receivers at the "second and third tier" they just need 1-2 players to emerge as "go to" players. 

 

Going to be interesting to see Josh operate in an offense with more quantity and less quality so to speak. 

 

More quantity is a the wrong way to put it.  You either have quality or you don't and are forced to play guys who aren't as talented.   

 

But the primary issue last year as it will be this year is they use Josh far too much.  In 11 games under Brady, Josh carried it 83 times for 424 yards and 11 TD's. And they needed every bit of that production to win games.      

 

When your offense depends on the QB to produce on the ground, it's covering up some major flaws.  Those problems were not addressed this year, notably with  replacements for Diggs and Davis.  They're once again hoping someone steps up into a role with more defensive attention on them.    

 

What the debates this off-season have been about is, why do the Bills not build with better talent around Josh?  Why is it frequently the last priority to place high-end talent around him, preferring to go with project rookies, guys who've never played at the level they're now expected to, and some veterans who are what they are? 

 

I predict by mid-season, there will be a chorus of people who, all-homered out, will say they didn't have room to spend on WRs but they can in 2025.   

[Alphadawg7]

On 5/24/2024 at 8:19 AM, Logic said:

I figured I'd give this its own thread, because this board could use a little hit of positivity going into the weekend. I've been as loud a critic of the Bills' offensive moves as anyone this offseason, so allow me to share a contrary opinion:
 

 

 

Ive been saying this a while now and I think it is going to lead to what will be seen as Allens best season of his career and a legit shot at the MVP as a result.   

 

Coleman, Shakir, Samuel, and Kincaid are going to already be a formidable group who can attack the defense all over the field and have YAC ability too.  Hollins and Chase already getting high praise (but its early) and MVS brings speed and championship experience as well.  Then you still have Knox and our RB's as pass catchers as well.  

 

Outside the pass game, you still have Cook who just put up nearly a 1300 yard rushing season and a rookie Davis who I think is going to be a stellar addition to this team.  And of course, we have maybe the most dangerous QB on the run in NFL history in Allen still under center...and when I say dangerous, that includes not only how great he is as a runner both short and long runs, but his overall escapability and his ability to extend plays with his feet.  

 

WILDCARD:  Chase Claypool.

I wouldn't normally be so intrigued by someone like Chase, but the talent he has is legit and he is still young and already proved he can succeed in the NFL from a talent perspectie as a starting WR given he had over 850 yards both his first 2 seasons despite playing with a broken down Big Ben and really was the 3rd option on those teams.  If this kid can get his head on straight and say work his way up into replacing Davis opposite Coleman, this offense could be wild.  Twin towers on the outside with guys like Kincaid, Shakir, and Samuel wreaking havoc over the middle and in the short to mid areas of the field all day would be hard to stop, especially with having to worry about our run game or Allen taking off.  

[Jauronimo]

On 5/24/2024 at 11:06 AM, eball said:

 

I'm amazed by how many fans don't want to acknowledge the concept of quantity (multiple "good" players) over quality (a true WR1) when you have an all-world QB who can distribute the ball.

 

It puts SO much more pressure on the defense when they can't just try to take away one strength.

 

 

 

If you line up your best 6 pass catchers on every play I would agree that maybe we have a depth advantage but that isn't how the game is played.  Pick any 3 pass catchers and tell me who is going to consistently get open against our opponents best cover guys?

 

We had Kincaid, Shakir, and Cook last year and they were lining up with Diggs.  Our issue is that if defenses took away Diggs then we couldn't consistently beat man coverage or get quick separation off the line.  Samuel has some shiftiness but hes not an upgrade over Diggs.  Coleman isn't known for winning quickly.  I expect Kincaid will take a step forward but I think Shakir will figure out what Davis learned the past few years: life is a lot easier when you are the 3rd or 4th receiving option on any given play.

 

 

[Alphadawg7]

On 5/27/2024 at 2:26 PM, BADOLBILZ said:

Since 2021 they've put less and less WR talent around Allen........setting him up for failure.

 

Huh?  Last year was probably the best overall talent around Allen since being a Bill.  And its honestly not close when you factor in the run game.  Diggs and Davis both still here (as they were in 2021), Kincaid had 81 receptions as a rookie (and on a team that had a 160 targets go to one player in Diggs), Shakir led the NFL in YPT, Catch rate, and was a YAC machine, Cook rushed for over 1200 yards and we still had Knox, the starting TE in 2021.  Allen had better weapons overall and a better running game around him.  Not to mention, last year was also probably his best OL as well. 

 

 

Edited May 30 by Alphadawg7

[Mat68]

33 minutes ago, BillsVet said:

 

More quantity is a the wrong way to put it.  You either have quality or you don't and are forced to play guys who aren't as talented.   

 

But the primary issue last year as it will be this year is they use Josh far too much.  In 11 games under Brady, Josh carried it 83 times for 424 yards and 11 TD's. And they needed every bit of that production to win games.      

 

When your offense depends on the QB to produce on the ground, it's covering up some major flaws.  Those problems were not addressed this year, notably with  replacements for Diggs and Davis.  They're once again hoping someone steps up into a role with more defensive attention on them.    

 

What the debates this off-season have been about is, why do the Bills not build with better talent around Josh?  Why is it frequently the last priority to place high-end talent around him, preferring to go with project rookies, guys who've never played at the level they're now expected to, and some veterans who are what they are? 

 

I predict by mid-season, there will be a chorus of people who, all-homered out, will say they didn't have room to spend on WRs but they can in 2025.   

Yes and no.  Kincaid and Cook are both top 5 in their positions or in Kincaid case projected.  Samuel has been a solid pro without elite Qb play.  Shakir and Coleman are expected to have big roles.  That is the passing game for the most part.  They are not paying any other wr.  

 

Say they go Franklin in rd 5?  Maybe Shorter develops into a special teamer with X ability.  Best case scenario Franklin becomes MVS and Shorter becomes Hollins.  For not much they just have those players to play those roles.  Got some dart throws with Hamler and Claypool.  Both mid 20’s former 2nd rd picks with athletic ability and some production.  
 

With some volatility at the top of the depth chart with Coleman and Shakir having 2 veterans isn't a bad idea.  They are being paid like 4th and 5th wrs.  Not expected to start but could in a spot.  Having them play the roles they have made a career of enhances the room.  Got a field stretcher in MVS and a X who will be a captain on teams in Hollins.  Somebody beats them out for that spot great but if not they will be fine in those roles. They are upgrades over Harty and Sherfield imo.