eball Posted May 28 Posted May 28 34 minutes ago, Jauronimo said: If you line up your best 6 pass catchers on every play I would agree that maybe we have a depth advantage but that isn't how the game is played. Pick any 3 pass catchers and tell me who is going to consistently get open against our opponents best cover guys? We had Kincaid, Shakir, and Cook last year and they were lining up with Diggs. Our issue is that if defenses took away Diggs then we couldn't consistently beat man coverage or get quick separation off the line. Samuel has some shiftiness but hes not an upgrade over Diggs. Coleman isn't known for winning quickly. I expect Kincaid will take a step forward but I think Shakir will figure out what Davis learned the past few years: life is a lot easier when you are the 3rd or 4th receiving option on any given play. On any given play the Bills have 5 “skill” options in addition to Josh. We can disagree, but I think choosing among Kincaid, Samuel, Shakir, Coleman, Knox, Cook, Ray Davis, and (MVS or Hollins or Claypool) gives the Bills plenty of ways to stress the defense. 2 Quote
BillsVet Posted May 28 Posted May 28 50 minutes ago, Mat68 said: Yes and no. Kincaid and Cook are both top 5 in their positions or in Kincaid case projected. Samuel has been a solid pro without elite Qb play. Shakir and Coleman are expected to have big roles. That is the passing game for the most part. They are not paying any other wr. Say they go Franklin in rd 5? Maybe Shorter develops into a special teamer with X ability. Best case scenario Franklin becomes MVS and Shorter becomes Hollins. For not much they just have those players to play those roles. Got some dart throws with Hamler and Claypool. Both mid 20’s former 2nd rd picks with athletic ability and some production. With some volatility at the top of the depth chart with Coleman and Shakir having 2 veterans isn't a bad idea. They are being paid like 4th and 5th wrs. Not expected to start but could in a spot. Having them play the roles they have made a career of enhances the room. Got a field stretcher in MVS and a X who will be a captain on teams in Hollins. Somebody beats them out for that spot great but if not they will be fine in those roles. They are upgrades over Harty and Sherfield imo. Winning the American Legion's cash raffle is not a strategy for paying next month's bills. And a bunch of slot-only guys and low end types doesn't make a NFL passing offense. Especially not with Josh Allen as your QB. 2 Quote
Fan in San Diego Posted May 28 Posted May 28 39 minutes ago, BillsVet said: Winning the American Legion's cash raffle is not a strategy for paying next month's bills. And a bunch of slot-only guys and low end types doesn't make a NFL passing offense. Especially not with Josh Allen as your QB. Isn't that the west coast offense? I think Keon will become that #1 wr. Quote
BADOLBILZ Posted May 28 Posted May 28 2 hours ago, Alphadawg7 said: Huh? Last year was by far the best talent around Allen since being a Bill. And its honestly not close. Diggs and Davis both still here (as they were in 2021), Kincaid had 81 receptions as a rookie (and on a team that had a 160 targets go to one player in Diggs), Shakir led the NFL in YPT, Catch rate, and was a YAC machine, Cook rushed for over 1200 yards and we still had Knox, the starting TE in 2021. Allen had better weapons overall and a better running game around him. Not to mention, last year was also probably his best OL as well. At the bottom are the WR/TE targets in order for the 2020 and 2023 seasons. Stefon Diggs was a first team All Pro in 2020. No comparison to his also-ran 2023 self. That's an L for 2023. Shakir was tremendous in limited exposure(like Davis 2020 or Knox 2021). But Beasley had twice as many catches and first downs(53 to 26). I don't think Beasley's second team All Pro that year was deserved like Diggs but he was incredibly productive. Another L for 2023. John Brown missed over half the 2020 snaps of the season injured.........but when he was healthy and Davis was option 4 THAT was absolutely the best group of weapons they've had because he was a proven 1,000 yard talent and playing like it. Davis was brutal in 2023. Another L for 2023. The last two sets are more complicated but still wins for 2020. Something nobody wants to acknowledge is that the gains from Kincaid in 2023 came largely from what was lost from Dawson Knox. Their passer rating when targeting the TE dropped substantially in 2023 versus 2021/2022. WR1 Diggs 2020 127 catches 1535 yards for 115.4 passer rating Diggs 2023 107 for 1183 for 94.9 Slot Beasley 2020 82 for 967 for 108.3 Shakir 2023 39 for 611 for 133.6 WR2 Brown 2020 33 for 458 for 110.9 Davis 2023 45 for 746 for 84.7 next option Davis 2020 35 for 599 for 100.1 Kincaid 2023 73 for 673 for 95.7 True TE Knox 2020 28 for 388 for 94.4 Knox 2021 49 for 587 for 127.8 Knox 2022 48 for 517 for 108.3 Knox 2023 22 for 186 for 69.9 4 players with passer ratings over 100 in the 2020 WR/TE group........versus just 1 in the 2023. Which is why Josh Allen had a 107.2 passer rating in 2020 and just 92.2 in 2023. I know that you want to focus on James Cook but RB production doesn't move the needle offensively. Sorry, but it's true. Every time you give the ball to a RB it typically decreases your yards per play as a team. That was no different in 2023 where James Cook averaged 5.6 yards per touch and the Bills averaged 5.7 as a team and a disappointing 26.5 points per game. The 2020 team averaged 6.1 yards per play and averaged 31+ points per game. 4 1 1 1 Quote
GoBills808 Posted May 28 Posted May 28 3 hours ago, eball said: On any given play the Bills have 5 “skill” options in addition to Josh. We can disagree, but I think choosing among Kincaid, Samuel, Shakir, Coleman, Knox, Cook, Ray Davis, and (MVS or Hollins or Claypool) gives the Bills plenty of ways to stress the defense. you can basically do this w every team in the league 1 3 Quote
FireChans Posted May 28 Posted May 28 40 minutes ago, BADOLBILZ said: At the bottom are the WR/TE targets in order for the 2020 and 2023 seasons. Stefon Diggs was a first team All Pro in 2020. No comparison to his also-ran 2023 self. That's an L for 2023. Shakir was tremendous in limited exposure(like Davis 2020 or Knox 2021). But Beasley had twice as many catches and first downs(53 to 26). I don't think Beasley's second team All Pro that year was deserved like Diggs but he was incredibly productive. Another L for 2023. John Brown missed over half the 2020 snaps of the season injured.........but when he was healthy and Davis was option 4 THAT was absolutely the best group of weapons they've had because he was a proven 1,000 yard talent and playing like it. Davis was brutal in 2023. Another L for 2023. The last two sets are more complicated but still wins for 2020. Something nobody wants to acknowledge is that the gains from Kincaid in 2023 came largely from what was lost from Dawson Knox. Their passer rating when targeting the TE dropped substantially in 2023 versus 2021/2022. WR1 Diggs 2020 127 catches 1535 yards for 115.4 passer rating Diggs 2023 107 for 1183 for 94.9 Slot Beasley 2020 82 for 967 for 108.3 Shakir 2023 39 for 611 for 133.6 WR2 Brown 2020 33 for 458 for 110.9 Davis 2023 45 for 746 for 84.7 next option Davis 2020 35 for 599 for 100.1 Kincaid 2023 73 for 673 for 95.7 True TE Knox 2020 28 for 388 for 94.4 Knox 2021 49 for 587 for 127.8 Knox 2022 48 for 517 for 108.3 Knox 2023 22 for 186 for 69.9 4 players with passer ratings over 100 in the 2020 WR/TE group........versus just 1 in the 2023. Which is why Josh Allen had a 107.2 passer rating in 2020 and just 92.2 in 2023. I know that you want to focus on James Cook but RB production doesn't move the needle offensively. Sorry, but it's true. Every time you give the ball to a RB it typically decreases your yards per play as a team. That was no different in 2023 where James Cook averaged 5.6 yards per touch and the Bills averaged 5.7 as a team and a disappointing 26.5 points per game. The 2020 team averaged 6.1 yards per play and averaged 31+ points per game. The offense was so talented in 2023 that Allen had to rush 9 times per game for the last 7 games to save the season and get us in the playoffs. For those keeping score at home, that’s a 153 carry pace on a full season. That would’ve ranked 37th in the NFL last year. Elite RB2 type numbers. And as much as Shakir and Kincaid “came on” during Brady’s reign, Allen had a putrid completion percentage of 60%, threw 10 TD’s to 7 INT’s, with a passer rating of 85. If this is Josh Allen released with Kincaid and Shakir as the focal points, it sounds like it’s gonna be a disaster lmao. 1 Quote
Alphadawg7 Posted May 28 Posted May 28 (edited) 59 minutes ago, BADOLBILZ said: At the bottom are the WR/TE targets in order for the 2020 and 2023 seasons. Stefon Diggs was a first team All Pro in 2020. No comparison to his also-ran 2023 self. That's an L for 2023. Shakir was tremendous in limited exposure(like Davis 2020 or Knox 2021). But Beasley had twice as many catches and first downs(53 to 26). I don't think Beasley's second team All Pro that year was deserved like Diggs but he was incredibly productive. Another L for 2023. John Brown missed over half the 2020 snaps of the season injured.........but when he was healthy and Davis was option 4 THAT was absolutely the best group of weapons they've had because he was a proven 1,000 yard talent and playing like it. Davis was brutal in 2023. Another L for 2023. The last two sets are more complicated but still wins for 2020. Something nobody wants to acknowledge is that the gains from Kincaid in 2023 came largely from what was lost from Dawson Knox. Their passer rating when targeting the TE dropped substantially in 2023 versus 2021/2022. WR1 Diggs 2020 127 catches 1535 yards for 115.4 passer rating Diggs 2023 107 for 1183 for 94.9 Slot Beasley 2020 82 for 967 for 108.3 Shakir 2023 39 for 611 for 133.6 WR2 Brown 2020 33 for 458 for 110.9 Davis 2023 45 for 746 for 84.7 next option Davis 2020 35 for 599 for 100.1 Kincaid 2023 73 for 673 for 95.7 True TE Knox 2020 28 for 388 for 94.4 Knox 2021 49 for 587 for 127.8 Knox 2022 48 for 517 for 108.3 Knox 2023 22 for 186 for 69.9 4 players with passer ratings over 100 in the 2020 WR/TE group........versus just 1 in the 2023. Which is why Josh Allen had a 107.2 passer rating in 2020 and just 92.2 in 2023. I know that you want to focus on James Cook but RB production doesn't move the needle offensively. Sorry, but it's true. Every time you give the ball to a RB it typically decreases your yards per play as a team. That was no different in 2023 where James Cook averaged 5.6 yards per touch and the Bills averaged 5.7 as a team and a disappointing 26.5 points per game. The 2020 team averaged 6.1 yards per play and averaged 31+ points per game. First, you said 2021...but now you are using 2020. So this is the wrong year Second, I disagree 2021 Diggs and 2023 Diggs were that much different in terms of his individual ability. The real difference was Daboll vs Dorsey/Brady combo. A passing system designed by Dorsey and Daboll is like comparing Olive Garden to a restaurant in Italy. Under Brady, Diggs usage was completely different, but people want to translate that to Diggs losing a step, which is a false leap in logic. Brady went away from chunk feeding Diggs and the deep ball, and instead spread the ball around more and then elected to run more than throw. Furthermore, the 2021 offense had its own lull under Daboll until he finally made some changes. They finally realized Sanders was declining and the offense was better with Davis on the field down the stretch. He discovered that Knox was actually a good redzone weapon and finally started using him as such. And he realized having no run game was a bad thing at half time of the Bucs loss where were getting blown out but nearly came back and won in the 2nd half after getting Devin involved. He would then use Devin a lot more and the down the stretch and the offense improved. Third, Kincaid is more of a receiver than he is a TE. Talent for talent, last years offense was the best group Allen has had to work with. Better OL, better running backs, better run game, better group of weapons between Diggs, Kincaid, Davis, and Shakir as the top 4 guys. People need to stop leaving Kincaid out of the receiving weapons group just because it doesn't say "WR" as his position when his primary role here is to catch passes. The offense is so much more than just "receivers"...and I know you know that. Edited May 28 by Alphadawg7 Quote
Einstein's Dog Posted May 29 Posted May 29 2 hours ago, GoBills808 said: you can basically do this w every team in the league And many of those other teams would be embarrassed to list a 4th round rookie and MVS, Hollins. or Claypool. Those should not count. 1 Quote
BillsVet Posted May 29 Posted May 29 1 hour ago, FireChans said: The offense was so talented in 2023 that Allen had to rush 9 times per game for the last 7 games to save the season and get us in the playoffs. For those keeping score at home, that’s a 153 carry pace on a full season. That would’ve ranked 37th in the NFL last year. Elite RB2 type numbers. And as much as Shakir and Kincaid “came on” during Brady’s reign, Allen had a putrid completion percentage of 60%, threw 10 TD’s to 7 INT’s, with a passer rating of 85. If this is Josh Allen released with Kincaid and Shakir as the focal points, it sounds like it’s gonna be a disaster lmao. And they needed Josh's 18 rushing TDs in 19 games, 11 of which came in the 9 games Brady was OC. Hard to see how the offense can re-invent itself with their current WR/TE group and NOT need Josh to play hero ball this season. Running it with Cook and Davis will not be as big a part of the solution as many assume. Nor will that receiving group which is being asked to significantly up their game at each starting position. Quote
FireChans Posted May 29 Posted May 29 2 hours ago, Alphadawg7 said: Brady went away from chunk feeding Diggs and the deep ball, and instead spread the ball around more and then elected to run more than throw. So are we just ignoring that Josh Allen played much worse when we did this? Pretty much every passing number fell off a cliff. 1 Quote
FireChans Posted May 29 Posted May 29 23 minutes ago, BillsVet said: And they needed Josh's 18 rushing TDs in 19 games, 11 of which came in the 9 games Brady was OC. Hard to see how the offense can re-invent itself with their current WR/TE group and NOT need Josh to play hero ball this season. Running it with Cook and Davis will not be as big a part of the solution as many assume. Nor will that receiving group which is being asked to significantly up their game at each starting position. The TD's don't bother me much because Josh Allen is a red zone threat and if he runs it in or throws it in, it's still a TD. And in general, those can be sneaks or scrambles and he may not be taking hits. What concerns me is: Passing numbers fell off a cliff when Brady took over and we "spread the ball around." Running Josh at a 153 carry pace which would be a career high in a season for CAM NEWTON. I just feel like we lost the plot a bit. I commend Brady for making some adjustments and involving Cook notably more. I won't hold too much of 23 against him personally, because I believe its very difficult to make any big changes to an offensive system mid-season. But if we are gonna talk Shakir's numbers post-Brady, then we should also talk Josh's. Because from a passing perspective, he was MUCH worse. Pre-Brady Josh had a 70% completion percentage, threw 19 TD's and 11 picks and had a 96 passer rating. Spreading it around and going more run heavy with Cook and Josh himself didn't really help Josh IMO. Quote
GoBills808 Posted May 29 Posted May 29 3 minutes ago, FireChans said: The TD's don't bother me much because Josh Allen is a red zone threat and if he runs it in or throws it in, it's still a TD. And in general, those can be sneaks or scrambles and he may not be taking hits. What concerns me is: Passing numbers fell off a cliff when Brady took over and we "spread the ball around." Running Josh at a 153 carry pace which would be a career high in a season for CAM NEWTON. I just feel like we lost the plot a bit. I commend Brady for making some adjustments and involving Cook notably more. I won't hold too much of 23 against him personally, because I believe its very difficult to make any big changes to an offensive system mid-season. But if we are gonna talk Shakir's numbers post-Brady, then we should also talk Josh's. Because from a passing perspective, he was MUCH worse. Pre-Brady Josh had a 70% completion percentage, threw 19 TD's and 11 picks and had a 96 passer rating. Spreading it around and going more run heavy with Cook and Josh himself didn't really help Josh IMO. this just in- slamming your QB into defenses on repeat tends to impact his ability to throw the ball effectively meanwhile we have people celebrating deficiencies at wideout and declaring that they're the new RB in breathless anticipation of our soon to be revealed 1974 offense 2 Quote
FireChans Posted May 29 Posted May 29 4 minutes ago, GoBills808 said: this just in- slamming your QB into defenses on repeat tends to impact his ability to throw the ball effectively meanwhile we have people celebrating deficiencies at wideout and declaring that they're the new RB in breathless anticipation of our soon to be revealed 1974 offense 1974 offense? I don't think QB's were running all that much. I think the vision for the 2024 Bills is the 2020 Pats lmao. The run Cam run offense where the leading receiver is Jakobi Meyers with 700 yards. Quote
BADOLBILZ Posted May 29 Posted May 29 2 hours ago, Alphadawg7 said: First, you said 2021...but now you are using 2020. So this is the wrong year Second, I disagree 2021 Diggs and 2023 Diggs were that much different in terms of his individual ability. The real difference was Daboll vs Dorsey/Brady combo. A passing system designed by Dorsey and Daboll is like comparing Olive Garden to a restaurant in Italy. Under Brady, Diggs usage was completely different, but people want to translate that to Diggs losing a step, which is a false leap in logic. Brady went away from chunk feeding Diggs and the deep ball, and instead spread the ball around more and then elected to run more than throw. Furthermore, the 2021 offense had its own lull under Daboll until he finally made some changes. They finally realized Sanders was declining and the offense was better with Davis on the field down the stretch. He discovered that Knox was actually a good redzone weapon and finally started using him as such. And he realized having no run game was a bad thing at half time of the Bucs loss where were getting blown out but nearly came back and won in the 2nd half after getting Devin involved. He would then use Devin a lot more and the down the stretch and the offense improved. Third, Kincaid is more of a receiver than he is a TE. Talent for talent, last years offense was the best group Allen has had to work with. Better OL, better running backs, better run game, better group of weapons between Diggs, Kincaid, Davis, and Shakir as the top 4 guys. People need to stop leaving Kincaid out of the receiving weapons group just because it doesn't say "WR" as his position when his primary role here is to catch passes. The offense is so much more than just "receivers"...and I know you know that. What kind of fact-free, unsupported response was that? Here is what you literally said that I responded to: "Last year was by far the best talent around Allen since being a Bill." That 2020 group was arguably the #1 WR corps in the NFL. Diggs was the best outside WR in the NFL that season.........he lead the NFL in catches and yards. Beasley was the best slot receiver in the NFL that season. I know you expect greatness from Kincaid and Shakir...........but they weren't great last year...........and like I said, people thought Davis and Knox were going to be great when given more opportunity. You gotta' judge player's by what they've done. 1 Quote
Royale with Cheese Posted May 29 Posted May 29 13 minutes ago, FireChans said: 1974 offense? I don't think QB's were running all that much. I think the vision for the 2024 Bills is the 2020 Pats lmao. The run Cam run offense where the leading receiver is Jakobi Meyers with 700 yards. Cam Newton was 25th in the league in passing attempts because he is severely limited as a passer. Josh Allen will never be in the bottom 3rd in passing attempts because he isn't a severely limited passer. We are still going to throw the ball a ton and will be league leaders again. This will be the first year under Brady's offense with his playbook, his vision, his adjustments etc.... He can't make significant and drastic changes to an offense mid year. We couldn't score before Brady took over. After the Dolphins game, the next 6 games we averaged 20 ppg.... Quote
FireChans Posted May 29 Posted May 29 3 minutes ago, Royale with Cheese said: Cam Newton was 25th in the league in passing attempts because he is severely limited as a passer. Josh Allen will never be in the bottom 3rd in passing attempts because he isn't a severely limited passer. We are still going to throw the ball a ton and will be league leaders again. This will be the first year under Brady's offense with his playbook, his vision, his adjustments etc.... He can't make significant and drastic changes to an offense mid year. We couldn't score before Brady took over. After the Dolphins game, the next 6 games we averaged 20 ppg.... That’s all well and good, but do you think it’s reasonable to say that Shakir is going to continue to be a rising star because he was pretty good under Brady post Denver, and also ignore that Josh Allen was a much worse passer under Brady post Denver? Like I said, I’m not killing Brady because I agree it’s not really reasonable to expect a whole new offense midseason. But is there any concern there at all? Josh was basically posting 2018/2019 numbers during that stretch. Quote
GoBills808 Posted May 29 Posted May 29 15 minutes ago, Royale with Cheese said: Cam Newton was 25th in the league in passing attempts because he is severely limited as a passer. Josh Allen will never be in the bottom 3rd in passing attempts because he isn't a severely limited passer. We are still going to throw the ball a ton and will be league leaders again. This will be the first year under Brady's offense with his playbook, his vision, his adjustments etc.... He can't make significant and drastic changes to an offense mid year. We couldn't score before Brady took over. After the Dolphins game, the next 6 games we averaged 20 ppg.... league leaders in what again? Quote
Alphadawg7 Posted May 29 Posted May 29 (edited) 46 minutes ago, BADOLBILZ said: What kind of fact-free, unsupported response was that? Here is what you literally said that I responded to: "Last year was by far the best talent around Allen since being a Bill." That 2020 group was arguably the #1 WR corps in the NFL. Diggs was the best outside WR in the NFL that season.........he lead the NFL in catches and yards. Beasley was the best slot receiver in the NFL that season. I know you expect greatness from Kincaid and Shakir...........but they weren't great last year...........and like I said, people thought Davis and Knox were going to be great when given more opportunity. You gotta' judge player's by what they've done. Well my original response was to you saying since 2021...so feels like you swapped to 2020 when you realized Cole and the rest of the WR's not named Diggs didn't do a whole lot. But overalll, I still say the 2023 offense is better than any year of Allens career in terms of overall talent because there is MORE than receivers on offense. 2020 Diggs vs 2023 Diggs 2020 Diggs may be the best player Allen has played with, but the 2023 team still had Diggs as I said, and his demise is greatly exaggerated when the reality is the change in the OC from Daboll to Dorsey/Brady is substantially more impactful on the different level of production for Diggs as the whole offensive philosophy was different. So Diggs vs Diggs has a slim difference at best. 2nd option: 2020 Cole Beasley vs 2023 Dalton Kincaid Kincaid put up 81 catches as a rookie to Coles 82...so not a huge difference, but Cole had more yards, so he gets the edge over Kincaid, but its not like its a massive difference. 3rd option: 2020 Gabe Davis vs 2023 Gabe Davis Now you have Davis vs Davis...I think everyone understands a WR in year 4 is a better player than when he was a rookie...and Davis had more yards and catches in 2023 than he did as WR3 in 2020, so edge to 2023 Davis. 4th option: 2020 John Brown vs 2023 Khalil Shakir Shakir had the superior season, not to mention Shakir had more catches and yards on almost 20 less targets than even Gabe Davis did in 2020, who was the 3rd option in that offense. And considering Cook had more targets than Shakir, he was technically the 5th option from a targets count perspective, and still put up more rec and yards than Davis did in 2020. John Brown only played 9 games and didn't produce like he did in previous years when he did play. And the reality is that Shakir actually led the team in receiving and was the only guy to put up 100 yard game (twice) once Brady became the OC. Had Brady been the OC the whole season and used Shakir the same, his season would have eclipsed Cole Beasley's too. But then there is the OL which 2023 was clearly the best OL Allen has ever had to go with also his best RB and run game he has had in his entire career with a 1200 yard rusher in Cook who also was an effective weapon out of the backfield too. So sorry, the offense is made up of more than just the receivers. And while 2020 Bills had the best individual WR season which was Diggs best of his career, the 2023 roster overall was better. Edited May 29 by Alphadawg7 1 1 Quote
NoSaint Posted May 29 Posted May 29 7 hours ago, eball said: On any given play the Bills have 5 “skill” options in addition to Josh. We can disagree, but I think choosing among Kincaid, Samuel, Shakir, Coleman, Knox, Cook, Ray Davis, and (MVS or Hollins or Claypool) gives the Bills plenty of ways to stress the defense. plenty as in just above the bare minimum or plenty as in among the most in the league Also, how’s that stress looking if Josh is only minimally running? 1 Quote
HappyDays Posted May 29 Posted May 29 1 hour ago, FireChans said: I think the vision for the 2024 Bills is the 2020 Pats lmao. The run Cam run offense where the leading receiver is Jakobi Meyers with 700 yards. I think they're trying to copy the KC offense of the past two seasons. Funnel the passing offense through the TEs and RBs. MVS as the field stretcher but rarely actually throw the ball deep. Big outside, quick/fast inside, with a primary TE that effectively plays WR. Grind out efficient drives, don't make mistakes, the QB will make a few magic plays to will his team down the field. That's what the ingredients tell me the plan is. I obviously don't think we have the offensive coaching or IOL to execute that style of offense, but I think that's the plan. Of course the Chiefs themselves barely managed to execute that plan last year but maybe we'll show them up? 1 Quote
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