What are your expectations for the draft picks?

[appoo]

For sake of discussion, lets stick to the first 4 rounds of players the Bills picked this season, but first let me hit you with some data:

 

 

I created a defensive metric called defensive splash plays, which is the sum of sacks, pass breakups, and INTs,  broken down by Position and Round (I've only included Safeties and DTs). As an example, 2023 3rd round DTs had .45 splash plays per game in aggregate (Kobie Turner Y'all). For RBs and WRs, I just used scrimmage yards per game (bonus - can you pick out James cook's leverage without thinking about when he got drafted?)

 

So - the Bills have 4 player whom conventional wisdom suggests will play this upcoming season. Keon Coleman (2), Cole Bishop (2), DeWayne Carter (3), and Ray Davis  (4).

 

I offered the data just as a reference point to answer the following 2 questions:

 

What are your expectations for year 1? Can they beat the odds and still produce in year 3/4? We're all Bills fans here, so I'm more curious why you think they'll beat the odds, rather than if.

 

 

[MR8]

I think the rookies will be held back a bit early on and take a larger role later in the year.  In particular Bishop because McDermott is known for sitting rookies on D longer to learn the schemes.  If he plays out of the gate like Edmunds did, it'd be surprising, but also a good sign of his football IQ and ability to play the role he's being asked to play on the D.

 

Hyde and Poyer were amazing players for us for so long for 2 reasons... 1) they're superb athletes and 2) PERFECT scheme mesh of skill set and what was asked of them. It does look like Bishop will be a Poyer type player and projects well to fit. He just needs to take the steps.

 

Coleman I am much less excited about... The kid is likeable but who cares, I want food football players and I just am not impressed.  That said, I think they try to get him involved early to see what he can do.  They'll platoon WRs to flatten his learning curve a bit but I think they're gonna tear him and see what they have immediately.   What his production will look like... Your guess is as good as mine, but his lack of speed and lack of separation in college has me VERY concerned. 

 

Carter I think will rotate in sparingly early as he learns the role, but I could see him being much more consistent player by the end of the season.  But remember, the Bills rotate D-Line like crazy to keep them fresh.  He'll see 35-40% of snaps, and it won't be an indictment of his ability, it'll be because of their rotation. 

 

Davis was a nice little pick up who has quietly been praised by college football people.  He's a bit older for a rookie and has some more mileage than you would expect from a rookie. But that's not a bad thing in this case because he's coming in as a situational player and to spell cook. He's a great change of pace, and when he gets moving the guy is a bowling ball. He also has a great ability to catch the ball out of the backfield and equally as important, he can pass block.  I don't see him getting a massive amount of touches, but I wouldn't be surprised if his snap count is higher than people expect because of his utility ability. At the end of the day he is clearly second fiddle and the only way he's going to get a lot of snaps is if cook gets hurt. We don't want that. But I think he's going to be very productive as a change of pace back and add something to this offense that we have been lacking.

[Gregg]

I don't know about expectations, but I will say there is more pressure on Bishop than anyone else being a safety. With Poyer gone and Hyde possibly gone looking at retirement. Even if Hyde comes back there will still be a lot of pressure on Bishop to produce right away. With Coleman he will be a part of a receiving corps that gets it done by committee. Besides the passing game will revolve around Kincaid anyway so Coleman can ease his way into the offense.

[YattaOkasan]

Coleman I think be close to the 1st round average and so should comfortably be over the 2nd round average (I think he has 750 yards plus).

I think Bishop starts pretty quickly if not out of the gate.  I think he beats this projection as he gets a few sacks from playing close to the line so much.  I don't think McD has held back 7 rookies out if he thinks they can play (Benford, White, Edmunds, Taron).  Milano and Levi are the only rookies I can think he "held" back and both were super sleepers (Elam is the only other rookie starter, but that was more of an injury need iirc). 

Carter is tough to beat 0.2 splash per game but probably can beat 0.1 (average without 2023) cause he seems to have a knack for swatting passes (did this metric include TFL @appoo?)

Davis will fall short of 500 yards so I think will be below this metric, but would exceed the TD metric if you calculated.  I don't think hell get touches that set up for a lot of yards.  Also I think Ty Johnson will start as the primary back up to cook so Davis may suffer from only have situational use early.  

 

[Ethan in Cleveland]

Expectations

Coleman - solid contributor with 40 catches and 4 TD and hopefully very few drops

Bishop  - day 1 starter. There is no safety on the roster that should be a lock to start. If he is not a day 1 starter I don't understand why you spend a 2nd round pick on a safety when edge was a much bigger need

Carter - DT takes forever to develop in NFL. Hopefully he gets 25% of the snaps in a rotation. 

Davis - I have high hopes for him. RB is easy transition to NFL perhaps most limited by their pass blocking ability. With Brady my hope is he gets 5 carries per game and 1-2 receptions per game. Cook should get the majority of snaps but Davis should be a versatile tool in many different position groups and formations. 

[GunnerBill]

2 minutes ago, Ethan in Cleveland said:

Expectations

Coleman - solid contributor with 40 catches and 4 TD and hopefully very few drops

Bishop  - day 1 starter. There is no safety on the roster that should be a lock to start. If he is not a day 1 starter I don't understand why you spend a 2nd round pick on a safety when edge was a much bigger need

Carter - DT takes forever to develop in NFL. Hopefully he gets 25% of the snaps in a rotation. 

Davis - I have high hopes for him. RB is easy transition to NFL perhaps most limited by their pass blocking ability. With Brady my hope is he gets 5 carries per game and 1-2 receptions per game. Cook should get the majority of snaps but Davis should be a versatile tool in many different position groups and formations. 

 

I do think Bishop will start if not day 1 then by week 4 or 5. But on the edge point that was about who was there. There were four edge guys taken in rounds 3 but they were all 3-4 OLB types (and the teams who drafted them reflect that - Atlanta, Denver, Baltimore and Philadelphia). Could you have drafted one and then brought them along and converted them in time to more traditional defensive end role? Yea, but not while getting much production early. Zero edge were taken in the entirity of round 4. The next tier of guys were more 4-3 ends - Thomas, Booker and Solomon - and all went in round 5 including one to the Bills. It was not a good edge class beyond the top few guys if you are a 4-3 team. 

[Ethan in Cleveland]

6 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

I do think Bishop will start if not day 1 then by week 4 or 5. But on the edge point that was about who was there. There were four edge guys taken in rounds 3 but they were all 3-4 OLB types (and the teams who drafted them reflect that - Atlanta, Denver, Baltimore and Philadelphia). Could you have drafted one and then brought them along and converted them in time to more traditional defensive end role? Yea, but not while getting much production early. Zero edge were taken in the entirity of round 4. The next tier of guys were more 4-3 ends - Thomas, Booker and Solomon - and all went in round 5 including one to the Bills. It was not a good edge class beyond the top few guys if you are a 4-3 team. 

Great point. I have no issue with them taking a safety. It was a top 3 need. It would just be very disappointing if he does not start quickly. 

[frostbitmic]

Starters - Coleman, Bishop

 

Backups/ST - Carter, Davis, Hardy, Solomon

 

Practice squad - Everyone else except ...

 

International exempt player - OT from England who has never played a down of football before.

[Kirby Jackson]

9 hours ago, appoo said:

For sake of discussion, lets stick to the first 4 rounds of players the Bills picked this season, but first let me hit you with some data:

 

 

I created a defensive metric called defensive splash plays, which is the sum of sacks, pass breakups, and INTs,  broken down by Position and Round (I've only included Safeties and DTs). As an example, 2023 3rd round DTs had .45 splash plays per game in aggregate (Kobie Turner Y'all). For RBs and WRs, I just used scrimmage yards per game (bonus - can you pick out James cook's leverage without thinking about when he got drafted?)

 

So - the Bills have 4 player whom conventional wisdom suggests will play this upcoming season. Keon Coleman (2), Cole Bishop (2), DeWayne Carter (3), and Ray Davis  (4).

 

I offered the data just as a reference point to answer the following 2 questions:

 

What are your expectations for year 1? Can they beat the odds and still produce in year 3/4? We're all Bills fans here, so I'm more curious why you think they'll beat the odds, rather than if.

 

 

I’m not trying to be “that guy” but I think that it’s important to add Javon Solomon to the mix. He led college football in sacks and plays a position of need. He’s going to play meaningful snaps at an impact position. I have his o/u at 4.5 sacks. 
 

 

[mrags]

28 minutes ago, frostbitmic said:

Starters - Coleman, Bishop

 

Backups/ST - Carter, Davis, Hardy, Solomon

 

Practice squad - Everyone else except ...

 

International exempt player - OT from England who has never played a down of football before.

Am I the only one that thinks that they should use this kid from England as a fullback? Playing rugby it’s literally the closest position on the football field to what he’s used to. Which would equal less learning pains. It would also allow you to have the extra player on the roster because of the exemption. We could carry 7 WRs, or since McDermott loves his DEs in a rotation so much he could get an extra body there. 

[boyst]

15 minutes ago, Kirby Jackson said:

I’m not trying to be “that guy” but I think that it’s important to add Javon Solomon to the mix. He led college football in sacks and plays a position of need. He’s going to play meaningful snaps at an impact position. I have his o/u at 4.5 sacks. 
 

 

this. i don't think he's on the radar enough for folks. i do not think he is going to be DROY or even play more than 33.3% of the snaps on defense but he will be a contributing factor on some plays this year.

Just now, mrags said:

Am I the only one that thinks that they should use this kid from England as a fullback? Playing rugby it’s literally the closest position on the football field to what he’s used to. Which would equal less learning pains. It would also allow you to have the extra player on the roster because of the exemption. We could carry 7 WRs, or since McDermott loves his DEs in a rotation so much he could get an extra body there. 

100% agree. said it when we signed him. he's athletic but he's not elite. actually no where close to elite. use up that big body for a few years as a FB and let him go back to the UK.

[GunnerBill]

Just now, mrags said:

Am I the only one that thinks that they should use this kid from England as a fullback? Playing rugby it’s literally the closest position on the football field to what he’s used to. Which would equal less learning pains. It would also allow you to have the extra player on the roster because of the exemption. We could carry 7 WRs, or since McDermott loves his DEs in a rotation so much he could get an extra body there. 

 

You don't get a roster exemption for the 53. You do for the 90 and he doesn't count for the PS. If he makes the roster he makes it as one of 53.

 

[Logic]

I'll throw a wrench into the discussion and say that I think Ray Davis has a chance to take real playing time away from James Cook. As it is, there were times last season where the staff seemed to want to move him to more of a change of pace role and give more snaps to Latavius Murray, but Murray was looking long in the tooth by that point in the season and wasn't up to the task.

I think James Cook's best role -- based on his college career, his size, his skillset, etc -- is as a change of pace, timeshare, 1B kind of guy. I think the way you get the most out of him is to have him split reps evenly with another guy, or even to outright be the change of pace guy while someone else is the starter. 

I also think that James Cook is a below average pass blocker. I'm not sure how Ray Davis is in that department, but IF he's a better pass blocker than Cook, that'll be his first ticket to eating into Cook's reps. Beyond that, and just generally speaking, I can see Davis doing more of the 1st and 2nd down dirty work, short yardage and goal line stuff, and Cook being more of the 3rd down back, splash plays guy, and being more involved as a receiver.

I don't think this will happen immediately, by any means. But by, say, week 10, I can see Ray Davis being the de facto starter at running back for the Buffalo Bills.

[Billl]

1 hour ago, YattaOkasan said:

Coleman I think be close to the 1st round average and so should comfortably be over the 2nd round average (I think he has 750 yards plus).

What is the second round average you’re referring to?  Last year, 40 WRs had 750 yards receiving.  750 plus would put him as a high end number 2 WR. 

 

Coleman was the first WR taken in the second round and the 8th overall. Last year, the first WR taken in the second had 43 catches, 418 yards, and 0 TDs. The 8th WR taken had 22, 377, and 1.   Penciling Coleman in for 750+ is extremely optimistic. 

[SCBills]

51 minutes ago, frostbitmic said:

Starters - Coleman, Bishop

 

Backups/ST - Carter, Davis, Hardy, Solomon

 

Practice squad - Everyone else except ...

 

International exempt player - OT from England who has never played a down of football before.

 

Van Pran-Granger is not making it to the Practice Squad and I think has a decent shot at starting. 

[mrags]

22 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

You don't get a roster exemption for the 53. You do for the 90 and he doesn't count for the PS. If he makes the roster he makes it as one of 53.

 

Well. It’s still a good idea. 
 

I don’t dislike Gilliam but what are you really getting out of him that says you can’t take a shot at this other guy. 

[appoo]

56 minutes ago, Kirby Jackson said:

I’m not trying to be “that guy” but I think that it’s important to add Javon Solomon to the mix. He led college football in sacks and plays a position of need. He’s going to play meaningful snaps at an impact position. I have his o/u at 4.5 sacks. 
 

 

I was considering adding him!

[Florida Bills Fanatic]

I can't really disagree with much of what is being pointed out here.  For me, injuries to front line players may throw any of the rookies into a more prominent role.  As fans, many of us fall into two categories.  One group over estimates the positive impact that rookies will have on the overall team.  The other group is what I like to call "the sky is falling crowd".  These people believe the season will go in the toilet, if the team has to rely significantly on rookies.  The reality is more nearly somewhere in between.  I have more confidence in Bishop and Carter having the ability to step into an important role than some of the other rookies.  I do believe Coleman will eventually have a significant positive impact but it might not be this season.  I also wonder if we are missing something with Gore Jr.. 

[LABILLBACKER]

40 minutes ago, Logic said:

I'll throw a wrench into the discussion and say that I think Ray Davis has a chance to take real playing time away from James Cook. As it is, there were times last season where the staff seemed to want to move him to more of a change of pace role and give more snaps to Latavius Murray, but Murray was looking long in the tooth by that point in the season and wasn't up to the task.

I think James Cook's best role -- based on his college career, his size, his skillset, etc -- is as a change of pace, timeshare, 1B kind of guy. I think the way you get the most out of him is to have him split reps evenly with another guy, or even to outright be the change of pace guy while someone else is the starter. 

I also think that James Cook is a below average pass blocker. I'm not sure how Ray Davis is in that department, but IF he's a better pass blocker than Cook, that'll be his first ticket to eating into Cook's reps. Beyond that, and just generally speaking, I can see Davis doing more of the 1st and 2nd down dirty work, short yardage and goal line stuff, and Cook being more of the 3rd down back, splash plays guy, and being more involved as a receiver.

I don't think this will happen immediately, by any means. But by, say, week 10, I can see Ray Davis being the de facto starter at running back for the Buffalo Bills.

I don't care which RB gets the most carries as long as he catches the damn ball.  Cook dropped 4 td passes last year...unacceptable. I too would be ok with Cook & Davis splitting carries 50/50. If James actually didn't have stone hands, I'd keep him as the feature back.

[Logic]

2 minutes ago, LABILLBACKER said:

I don't care which RB gets the most carries as long as he catches the damn ball.  Cook dropped 4 td passes last year...unacceptable. I too would be ok with Cook & Davis splitting carries 50/50. If James actually didn't have stone hands, I'd keep him as the feature back.

For what it's worth, Ray Davis had 12 receiving TDs in college to Cook's 6 (granted, Davis played an extra year).

Davis had 7 receiving TDs just last season, which was the most receiving touchdowns by an SEC running back in 25 years. Pretty impressive. 

That's another reason I think Davis can eat into Cook's playing time and maybe seize the starting job from him: He's just as capable -- and arguably more so -- as a receiver.