McDermott Growth/Expectations

[Meatloaf63]

13 hours ago, Logic said:

I have no more way of knowing what McDermott would be without Josh than you do. It's almost a meaningless question, because it didn't happen and we'll never know.

Actually, that's not entirely true. McDermott had one season without Josh Allen. He took a team in the very first year of a from-the-ground-up rebuild to a winning record and a playoff berth. 

Jauron had one winning season out of TEN as a head coach. He made the playoffs ONCE out of TEN tries.

Josh Allen-less McDermott, meanwhile, made the playoffs in his lone Allen-less season. One for one.

Besides, as I responded to another poster: Having a great QB does not equal automatic playoffs. Justin Herbert doesn't make the playoffs every year. Philip Rivers made the playoffs 7 out of 16 seasons. It takes good coaching, too. 

I'm sorry, but I think automatically attributing all Bills success to Josh Allen and pretending the coach doesn't have anything to do with it is dumb. I think the "without Josh, McDermott would be Jauron" argument is dumb. He's not Curly Lambeau or Don Shula, but he's a good NFL head coach. The proof is in the pudding. You don't have six winning seasons out of seven and the winning percentage he does without being a good coach. It's nonsense.

If you can’t make a guess you are lying to yourself. When you look at the % of offense that has run through him, you are not an educated football fan and certainly lack the ability to use logic. If he would have taken Mahomes he would have had similar success, any other qb from that draft class and we wouldn’t be making the playoffs year in and out.

On 5/20/2024 at 8:04 PM, FireChans said:

The HC that broke the worst playoff drought in football with Tyrod Taylor at QB?

Relying on Cincinatti to beat your opponents year in and year out and on a defense that foot fetish built is not a strategy for long term success.

[FireChans]

11 minutes ago, Meatloaf63 said:

If you can’t make a guess you are lying to yourself. When you look at the % of offense that has run through him, you are not an educated football fan and certainly lack the ability to use logic. If he would have taken Mahomes he would have had similar success, any other qb from that draft class and we wouldn’t be making the playoffs year in and out.

Relying on Cincinatti to beat your opponents year in and year out and on a defense that foot fetish built is not a strategy for long term success.

You asked what he would be. He would’ve been the HC of the most successful season in the last 17 years of Bills history. 

[Mikie2times]

2 hours ago, FireChans said:

You asked what he would be. He would’ve been the HC of the most successful season in the last 17 years of Bills history. 

If the average winning % in the NFL since 2020 for teams that have a QBR of 65 or better on the season is 74% and we have had a 72% winning % then is that hard to determine what exactly this would look like with a replacement level coach? Allen has been over a 65 every year since 2020. This isn't that complicated. All these people defending our AFC east crowns and glory years as if that would just cease to exist are kidding themselves. This division sucks and we start every hand with an ace. Winning every year in this group is par for the course. Miami is the only scent of competition and they can't beat anybody who is .500 or better.  McD is Jag and when we go up against strong competition he proves it time and time again.

 

How is it even possible the Bengals have opened with three drives on us, over 150 yards, zero incompletions, and 21 points. You have multiple games to learn from your experiences and nothing. It is difficult to be that bad. Like REALLY difficult. If somebody asked me if a team would be able to open with 3 drives, 3 scores, and no incompletions on over 15 throws I would literally bet everything in my bank account that wouldn't happen. That's not even bringing up KC. That is the Bengals, the team nobody talks about because they're stuck on discussing why we were too injured to stand a chance against KC. 

Edited May 22 by Mikie2times

[FireChans]

7 hours ago, Mikie2times said:

If the average winning % in the NFL since 2020 for teams that have a QBR of 65 or better on the season is 74% and we have had a 72% winning % then is that hard to determine what exactly this would look like with a replacement level coach? Allen has been over a 65 every year since 2020. This isn't that complicated. All these people defending our AFC east crowns and glory years as if that would just cease to exist are kidding themselves. This division sucks and we start every hand with an ace. Winning every year in this group is par for the course. Miami is the only scent of competition and they can't beat anybody who is .500 or better.  McD is Jag and when we go up against strong competition he proves it time and time again.

 

How is it even possible the Bengals have opened with three drives on us, over 150 yards, zero incompletions, and 21 points. You have multiple games to learn from your experiences and nothing. It is difficult to be that bad. Like REALLY difficult. If somebody asked me if a team would be able to open with 3 drives, 3 scores, and no incompletions on over 15 throws I would literally bet everything in my bank account that wouldn't happen. That's not even bringing up KC. That is the Bengals, the team nobody talks about because they're stuck on discussing why we were too injured to stand a chance against KC. 

None of this has anything to do with what I said. He would still have broken the drought. 
 

Not to mention, this QBR “analysis” is terrible lol. 
 

Sorry.

[HappyDays]

54 minutes ago, FireChans said:

None of this has anything to do with what I said. He would still have broken the drought. 

 

What if McDermott is the best Bills coach of the millennium, but also isn't good enough to win a championship?

[GunnerBill]

4 minutes ago, HappyDays said:

 

What if McDermott is the best Bills coach of the millennium, but also isn't good enough to win a championship?

 

That is certainly possible. I don't believe it is yet proven. 

[HappyDays]

2 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

That is certainly possible. I don't believe it is yet proven. 

 

A negative can't be proven 😁

 

This whole conversation about where McDermott stacks among former Bills coaches really avoids the million dollar question. The question is, can McDermott win ONE Super Bowl during Allen's career? Really the question should be can McDermott win MULTIPLE Super Bowls during Allen's career but I think as a fanbase we've collectively shelved that goal, which is telling on its own.

 

I would feel better if McDermott had one signature defensive game in the playoffs on his resume. Really, just one. I know the Ravens game played in hurricane winds is the example everyone uses, personally that doesn't do it for me. The statistics on his defense against divisional winners in the playoffs are horrendously bad. There's not a single data point that gives me reason for optimism on that front.

 

My one hope right now is that he relinquishes full control of the defense to Babich, play calling and all, and Babich turns out to be a defensive mastermind. Or at the very least varied and creative enough to just slow down some of these great teams in the playoffs. At least with Babich we have no data points to go off of so there is some reason for blind hope.

[Mikie2times]

1 hour ago, FireChans said:

None of this has anything to do with what I said. He would still have broken the drought. 
 

Not to mention, this QBR “analysis” is terrible lol. 
 

Sorry.

I mean, what exactly is flawed with looking at teams record with high performing QB’s? If you want to take it back prior to 2020 you can. It included over 20 qualifying teams. The fact is you just don’t lose a lot of games in this league when you get QB play at that level. It’s a huge advantage. Your baseline win% pushes 75% when you get that level of QB play.  So it becomes really hard to parcel out what contribution your coach makes especially when your performance is so poor in the postseason and on the side of the ball he specializes in.

 

How can you explain Burrows performance in 3 separate opening drives? Does that not shine a light on a deficiency in game planning and X’s and O’s? 

 

These are the teams that have faced KC multiple times in the playoffs during the Super Bowl run and how Mahomes has performed. 

 

 

KC is the best, but why are they just a little bit better against us?

 

Our AFC east titles are built on facing teams without winning records and a team that can’t beat any teams with winning records. Our playoff appearance in 2017 built on a one more win than Rex Ryan accomplished. These are things to feel good about, sure. But are you carrying these trophies into games vs Burrow and Mahomes as evidence that we can even perform at an average level?

 

 

Edited May 22 by Mikie2times

[Logic]

11 hours ago, Meatloaf63 said:

If you can’t make a guess you are lying to yourself. When you look at the % of offense that has run through him, you are not an educated football fan and certainly lack the ability to use logic. If he would have taken Mahomes he would have had similar success, any other qb from that draft class and we wouldn’t be making the playoffs year in and out.

 

Your insistence on knowing definitively how reality would've played out in an alternate, unknowable timeline and the speed with which you went the "you are not an educated football fan" route simply because I refuse to play along or agree with your nonsense combine to lead me to one conclusion: I'm good on this conversation. No desire to engage in it with you any further.

Have a lovely week, bud!

[Fr. Jerk]

I hope he gets bigger. Andre the Giant levels, ya dig?

[oldmanfan]

Getting close to where he either closes the deal or needing to move on.

[FireChans]

59 minutes ago, HappyDays said:

 

What if McDermott is the best Bills coach of the millennium, but also isn't good enough to win a championship?

He might be! 
 

What if he’s one of those coaches that had to fail for a large part of his career and then turns it around and becomes a winner and a HoFer?

31 minutes ago, Mikie2times said:

I mean, what exactly is flawed with looking at teams record with high performing QB’s? If you want to take it back prior to 2020 you can. It included over 20 qualifying teams. The fact is you just don’t lose a lot of games in this league when you get QB play at that level. It’s a huge advantage. Your baseline win% pushes 75% when you get that level of QB play.  So it becomes really hard to parcel out what contribution your coach makes especially when your performance is so poor in the postseason and on the side of the ball he specializes in.

 

How can you explain Burrows performance in 3 separate opening drives? Does that not shine a light on a deficiency in game planning and X’s and O’s? 

 

These are the teams that have faced KC multiple times in the playoffs during the Super Bowl run and how Mahomes has performed. 

 

 

KC is the best, but why are they just a little bit better against us?

 

Our AFC east titles are built on facing teams without winning records and a team that can’t beat any teams with winning records. Our playoff appearance in 2017 built on a one more win than Rex Ryan accomplished. These are things to feel good about, sure. But are you carrying these trophies into games vs Burrow and Mahomes as evidence that we can even perform at an average level?

 

 

What’s the standard deviation of wins? In a 16-17 game schedule, the difference between 74% and 72% is non-significant.

 

[Mikie2times]

19 minutes ago, FireChans said:

He might be! 
 

What if he’s one of those coaches that had to fail for a large part of his career and then turns it around and becomes a winner and a HoFer?

What’s the standard deviation of wins? In a 16-17 game schedule, the difference between 74% and 72% is non-significant.

 

It's not significant. What is significant is teams having a nearly identical regular season record as us with the QB play we had. Everybody wants to boast about our regular season championships and how we might lose that consistency if it weren't for McD. Our fan base is like a bunch of beaten dogs. McD gave us a treat for the first time in 20 years and and we didn't think we deserved more. Meanwhile the best window in this franchises history is going to pass us by as a result. 

Edited May 22 by Mikie2times

[Gregg]

6 minutes ago, Mikie2times said:

It's not significant. What is significant is teams having a nearly identical regular season record as us with the QB play we had. Everybody wants to boast about our regular season championships and how we might lose that consistency if it weren't for McD. Our fan base is like a bunch of beaten dogs. McD gave us a treat for the first time in 20 years and it tasted so good we didn't care to ask if we could have more. Meanwhile the best window in this franchises history is going to pass us by as a result. 

 

I would say it already passed us by in the early the 90's. Should have won the Giants game. That is a fact. The other Super Bowls. The Redskins and Cowboys were the better teams. 

[Avisan]

31 minutes ago, Mikie2times said:

It's not significant. What is significant is teams having a nearly identical regular season record as us with the QB play we had. Everybody wants to boast about our regular season championships and how we might lose that consistency if it weren't for McD. Our fan base is like a bunch of beaten dogs. McD gave us a treat for the first time in 20 years and and we didn't think we deserved more. Meanwhile the best window in this franchises history is going to pass us by as a result. 

Are we going to pretend here that QBR has zero correlation with quality of team coaching?

[Mikie2times]

8 minutes ago, Avisan said:

Are we going to pretend here that QBR has zero correlation with quality of team coaching?

He's not getting into X's and O's, mechanics, or overriding Brady with any frequency. He's not a QB coach and has no offensive experience. 

 

What do you think he is doing with Allen to impact that number so much? 

Edited May 22 by Mikie2times

[HappyDays]

1 hour ago, FireChans said:

What if he’s one of those coaches that had to fail for a large part of his career and then turns it around and becomes a winner and a HoFer?

 

He hasn't turned anything around though. The latest playoff loss exemplified his worst traits. Poor personnel decisions. Poor defensive scheme that led to fish in a barrel offensive production. Coaching brain farts at critical moments of the game. I don't think McDermott has improved as a coach since 2020 to be honest, and last year if anything I thought he took a step back in certain areas.

 

But man I am already so sick of this conversation. I have no choice but to be in wait and see mode so that's what I'll do.

[GunnerBill]

27 minutes ago, HappyDays said:

 

He hasn't turned anything around though. The latest playoff loss exemplified his worst traits. Poor personnel decisions. Poor defensive scheme that led to fish in a barrel offensive production. Coaching brain farts at critical moments of the game. I don't think McDermott has improved as a coach since 2020 to be honest, and last year if anything I thought he took a step back in certain areas.

 

But man I am already so sick of this conversation. I have no choice but to be in wait and see mode so that's what I'll do.

 

 

No it didn't. 

[Andrew Son]

2 hours ago, HappyDays said:

 

A negative can't be proven 😁

 

This whole conversation about where McDermott stacks among former Bills coaches really avoids the million dollar question. The question is, can McDermott win ONE Super Bowl during Allen's career? Really the question should be can McDermott win MULTIPLE Super Bowls during Allen's career but I think as a fanbase we've collectively shelved that goal, which is telling on its own.

 

I would feel better if McDermott had one signature defensive game in the playoffs on his resume. Really, just one. I know the Ravens game played in hurricane winds is the example everyone uses, personally that doesn't do it for me. The statistics on his defense against divisional winners in the playoffs are horrendously bad. There's not a single data point that gives me reason for optimism on that front.

 

My one hope right now is that he relinquishes full control of the defense to Babich, play calling and all, and Babich turns out to be a defensive mastermind. Or at the very least varied and creative enough to just slow down some of these great teams in the playoffs. At least with Babich we have no data points to go off of so there is some reason for blind hope.

The real million dollar question is do you trust the Pegulas to make a good hire?

[Process]

31 minutes ago, HappyDays said:

 

He hasn't turned anything around though. The latest playoff loss exemplified his worst traits. Poor personnel decisions. Poor defensive scheme that led to fish in a barrel offensive production. Coaching brain farts at critical moments of the game. I don't think McDermott has improved as a coach since 2020 to be honest, and last year if anything I thought he took a step back in certain areas.

 

But man I am already so sick of this conversation. I have no choice but to be in wait and see mode so that's what I'll do.

Ive been ready to move on from McDermott for a little while now but I strongly disagree that the latest loss was on coaching. That one was 100% on the players, more specifically the WRs, and of course bad injury luck.