McDermott Growth/Expectations

[Mikie2times]

43 minutes ago, hondo in seattle said:

 

McD's first playoff loss wasn't much of a disappointment to me because it was so expected.  That roster just wasn't good.

 

Since then, I've had some higher expectations.  But at the beginning of the playoffs, I never thought, "This is our year."  The landscape was never particularly favorable.  Every year, there were teams that were healthier, or better, or both.  

 

So overall, I think McD's playoff record is about what I'd expect given the strength of the roster at the start of the playoffs.  And I suppose that, in itself, is disappointing.  You want the coach to elevate the team and squeak out some victories against better squads.  McD hasn't done that - not in the playoffs. 

 

Though, any statistician will tell you about the importance of sample size.  Coaches don't coach enough in the playoffs for their performance there to become a meaningful sample.  But they do coach a lot of regular-season games.  And the Bills' success is well known...

 

Since 2020:

KC   51-16

Bills  48-18

Packers 43-24

Cowboys 42-25

49ers 41-16

 

When pitted against other NFL coaches, McD usually comes out on top.  It doesn't happen as often in the playoffs because (1) tougher opponents, (2) injuries, and (3) bad luck.   It's not because McD suddenly turns into a coaching moron.  Anyway, the small sample size makes the record an almost meaningless metric.   Reid went 6-5 in his first 11 playoff games.  McD's 5-6.  I'm hoping things coalesce and McD, like Reid, ends up with 3 rings.   

 

 

 

 

 

Just covering your stuff, but might as well include all the rest of it.....

 

Teams with a QB in the top 5 in QBR have gone 225-86 since 2020,  good for a 72% winning which is identical to McD's regular season winning % during that time. Allen has finished  3rd, 6th, 2nd, and 3rd in those years. We should expect to win 70% of our games with a top 5 QB. 

 

Just looking at who made the conference championship and beyond since 2020. If you have a QBR in the top 5 you have a 50% chance of going to the conference championship. 3 of the 4 Super Bowl winners are represented. 

 

2023 = 2 of the 5 made it to the conference championship, one made it to the Super Bowl

2022 = 2 of the 5 made it to the Super Bowl, one won the Super Bowl

2021 = 3 of the 5 made it the conference Championship, one won the Super Bowl

2020= 3 of the 5 made it to the conference Championship, one won the Super Bowl

 

Andy Reid is 15-3 in the playoffs since Mahomes. Prior to that he is 11-13. 

 

Burrows is 14 of 14 for 181 Yards and 3 TD's on opening drives vs Buffalo

 

One of those games he had 3 starting offensive lineman out, why do injuries only matter for us?

 

We have accomplished nothing more than what you should expect to accomplish with a top 5 QB in the NFL. We have no basis to suggest we have performed any better or worse. 

 

Regarding the infamous playoff drought year we allowed the exact same amount points as we did two years prior under Tyrod Taylor and Rex Ryan while scoring 77 points less. About 6-10 teams per decade make the playoffs with a -50 point differential. We ended up being one of them. Anoint the man.

Edited May 21 by Mikie2times

[Buffalo Boy]

1 hour ago, GunnerBill said:

 

Or when he doesn't have to get past that same Patrick Mahomes.

Or the Patrick Mahomes faces a D that actually makes him work for it and not just trot out and shoot layups repeatedly.

[Matt_In_NH]

1 hour ago, PBF81 said:

 

LOL 

 

Really?  

 

SMH ... why do you even bother.  

 

 

Another garbage post by the PBF81.......bye

[Buffalo Boy]

1 hour ago, GunnerBill said:

 

I think he could yes. The defeat to the Bengals two years ago was on the players. Josh included. He sucked. 

McD played no part in the D absolutely crapping the bed to start the game? His scheme was above reproach?

[Matt_In_NH]

6 hours ago, NoSaint said:

We are halfway through this ride and haven’t come particularly close. At some point that’s got to be a problem.

I disagree with havn't been particularly close, I think they have been closer than you realize.   But I agree with your point, at some point it has to be a problem.  They were 13 seconds from hosting the Bengals in the AFCCG.  They were a couple plays last year from beating the Chiefs.  Both times the defense is what failed and that is what McDermott is supposed to bring to the table.   I get it, they have not won the SB and we all want that.  What is your idea for who to replace him with? Unfortunately the Bills are playing when you have a true dynasty standing in their way.  The 49ers have the same exact problem, they just can't play the Chiefs until the SB.   Here is the list of coaches who have beat Mahomes in KC more than once:  McDermott, same goes for Allen and they have done it three times.   Yes they need to do it when it matters but who are we going to change to?  The odds are with any change, it will get worse not better but there is a chance it could get better.

[FireChans]

35 minutes ago, GoBills808 said:

If you like I can pull up the numbers again

 

They do not support it

The numbers? The 15-1 numbers? 
 

Mahomes 3 highest games in passer rating in the postseason came against Pittsburgh, Houston and Philly.

 

They eat good teams alive.

27 minutes ago, Ethan in Cleveland said:

I promised to be positive and not negative this summer

 

My take is any HC in this league wins 9 and maybe 10 games with a healthy Allen. I think McD may win two games and lose two to three games as HC. Look at last year. His defense impressively shut down Miami twice. Then his defense choked wins away against Jets, Broncos, and Eagles(twice). 

 

If Bills had not made the playoffs last year I would have fired him. I don't like how he treated Diggs. 

 

For me it is SuperBowl appearance or get a new coach in 2025.

 

 

We lost against the Jets because our QB turned it over 4 times. We also didn’t play the Eagles twice. 
 

I don’t mind you being negative this summer, but be negative and accurate my dude!

 

1 hour ago, GoBills808 said:

he cant get past the bengals either

By that logic, we also can’t get by the Texans lol

 

Which is of course not true.

Edited May 21 by FireChans

[mrags]

52 minutes ago, FireChans said:

Lol painful year.

 

guarantee we cruise to the playoffs. 

Hope your right. 

[Buffalo Boy]

53 minutes ago, FireChans said:

Lol painful year.

 

guarantee we cruise to the playoffs. 

Like we “ cruised” last year?

[FireChans]

7 minutes ago, Buffalo Boy said:

Like we “ cruised” last year?

Sure. 
 

How many times did we do the “KC is dead they may not make the playoffs”

 

Or how many times did we say “the Pats dynasty is done here, they look broken!”

 

And then we all wake up January first and they are both in the playoffs every time lol. 
 

Best QB in the division by a lot + best coach in the division =‘s playoffs. Always always always always unless Josh misses 6+ games.

[Ethan in Cleveland]

26 minutes ago, FireChans said:

The numbers? The 15-1 numbers? 
 

Mahomes 3 highest games in passer rating in the postseason came against Pittsburgh, Houston and Philly.

 

They eat good teams alive.

We lost against the Jets because our QB turned it over 4 times. We also didn’t play the Eagles twice. 
 

I don’t mind you being negative this summer, but be negative and accurate my dude!

 

By that logic, we also can’t get by the Texans lol

 

Which is of course not true.

Twice in the Eagles game Josh walked off the field with the lead and the defense lost it. 

Bills had the lead in 4th quarter against the Jets and proceeded to give up 10 straight points.  Allen plated like garbage but gave them a lead in the fourth quarter anc Allen bailed him out with a FG tying drive only for special teams to give up a TD punt return. 

[FireChans]

Just now, Ethan in Cleveland said:

Twice in the Eagles game Josh walked off the field with the lead and the defense lost it. 

Bills had the lead in 4th quarter against the Jets and proceeded to give up 10 straight points.  Allen plated like garbage but gave them a lead in the fourth quarter anc Allen bailed him out with a FG tying drive only for special teams to give up a TD punt return. 

Hold on.

 

Allen went 3 and out in OT. And ST isn’t the defense lol. 
 

Offense scores 16 and the offense turns it over 4 times, including fumbling the snap with 5 minutes left in the game on our own 25 and Allen bailed out the defense??? 
 

Holy smokes. This can’t be real critique.

 

It’s a 13-13 game, your QB fumbles the snap in FG range (his 4th TO of the game), and you hold them to 15 yards and a FG and give the ball back to your offense with 2 minutes left and you get blamed for a loss on defense when that was the last time the defense was on the field. Incredible.

[GoBills808]

2 minutes ago, FireChans said:

Hold on.

 

Allen went 3 and out in OT. And ST isn’t the defense lol. 
 

Offense scores 16 and the offense turns it over 4 times, including fumbling the snap with 5 minutes left in the game on our own 25 and Allen bailed out the defense??? 
 

Holy smokes. This can’t be real critique.

 

It’s a 13-13 game, your QB fumbles the snap in FG range (his 4th TO of the game), and you hold them to 15 yards and a FG and give the ball back to your offense with 2 minutes left and you get blamed for a loss on defense when that was the last time the defense was on the field. Incredible.

playoff game/super bowl on the line

 

do you want the offense or the defense on the field last?

[Mr. WEO]

Growth?? 

[FireChans]

Just now, GoBills808 said:

playoff game/super bowl on the line

 

do you want the offense or the defense on the field last?

I want the offense because Josh Allen is a top 2 QB in the NFL and no one else on the Bills roster, FO, or coaching staff is anywhere close to top 2 in anything. 
 

That doesn’t mean he didn’t near single-handedly lose us the Jets opener. He did. One team won a game all season when they committed 4+ turnovers. It was the Lions over the hapless Bears and they scored 31 points. Teams that turn it over with less than 5 min in the game in a tie game on their own 25 have what kind of W/L do you think? Teams that turn it over 4 times in a game have what kind of W/L? He lost us the game. Mahomes lost the Chiefs the Raiders game on Christmas with some horrific turnovers. It happens.

 

Unless you think there’s “no way” Josh could lose with the game on the line on a final drive. Of course he can. He has. 

[NoSaint]

31 minutes ago, Matt_In_NH said:

I disagree with havn't been particularly close, I think they have been closer than you realize.   But I agree with your point, at some point it has to be a problem.  They were 13 seconds from hosting the Bengals in the AFCCG.  They were a couple plays last year from beating the Chiefs.  Both times the defense is what failed and that is what McDermott is supposed to bring to the table.   I get it, they have not won the SB and we all want that.  What is your idea for who to replace him with? Unfortunately the Bills are playing when you have a true dynasty standing in their way.  The 49ers have the same exact problem, they just can't play the Chiefs until the SB.   Here is the list of coaches who have beat Mahomes in KC more than once:  McDermott, same goes for Allen and they have done it three times.   Yes they need to do it when it matters but who are we going to change to?  The odds are with any change, it will get worse not better but there is a chance it could get better.

we were 13 seconds away from playing in the game to get to the game….

 

while I agree they had a shot…. They couldn’t hold on for 13 seconds so 120 more minutes is quite the journey left to reach the goal 

 

 

 

[GoBills808]

6 minutes ago, FireChans said:

I want the offense because Josh Allen is a top 2 QB in the NFL and no one else on the Bills roster, FO, or coaching staff is anywhere close to top 2 in anything. 
 

That doesn’t mean he didn’t near single-handedly lose us the Jets opener. He did. One team won a game all season when they committed 4+ turnovers. It was the Lions over the hapless Bears and they scored 31 points. Teams that turn it over with less than 5 min in the game in a tie game on their own 25 have what kind of W/L do you think? Teams that turn it over 4 times in a game have what kind of W/L? He lost us the game. Mahomes lost the Chiefs the Raiders game on Christmas with some horrific turnovers. It happens.

 

Unless you think there’s “no way” Josh could lose with the game on the line on a final drive. Of course he can. He has. 

i don't care about the jets game...at this point i only really care about the playoffs. in that sense i give credit to McDermott for creating the environment for higher expectations. under his leadership we now have a consistent winning culture and that's no small achievement.

 

the reason i asked is because in our recent eliminations our defense minded HC has presided over some absolute capitulations. i'm talking worst defense in the league type outings. the fact that it's been happening w such regularity on his side of the ball is why i'm out on McDermott and have been for some time now. he's the tua tagovailoa of HCs- great stats, can't get it done when it matters.

[McBean]

10 hours ago, TFBillsfan said:

McDermott is going into his 7th season as the Bills head coach. His staff beneath him has turned over with a new DC and it’s Brady’s first full season as OC. The schedule is loaded and the AFCE has improved.

 

Curious what your expectations are of McDermott? What areas do you hope/expect he improves at?

 

McDermott has been a solid coach with lots of positives but far too often stumbles a few times per season against a lesser team, struggles to make in game adjustments and come the playoffs, he gets outcoached in key games and his team has failed to execute at critical moments. Overall, he has a losing record in the playoffs at 5-6.

For all he’s done for this organization like breaking the drought and winning 4 consecutive AFC east titles, he can coach here forever for all I care. 
 

I don’t have to see anything. He’s shown us greatness for far too long.
 

Forever Sean. 

Edited May 21 by McBean

[Buffalo Boy]

47 minutes ago, FireChans said:

Sure. 
 

How many times did we do the “KC is dead they may not make the playoffs”

 

Or how many times did we say “the Pats dynasty is done here, they look broken!”

 

And then we all wake up January first and they are both in the playoffs every time lol. 
 

Best QB in the division by a lot + best coach in the division =‘s playoffs. Always always always always unless Josh misses 6+ games.

   As I stated before. Josh is not a panacea, but he appears to be a crutch.

   I don’t ascribe to the “maybe we will fluke our way to a championship “ train of thought. 
   He is a generational talent. He should be harnessed and used correctly. IMO that is not what we are looking at moving forward.

   

[PBF81]

2 hours ago, mrags said:

Get ready for an uninspiring season imo. Really hope I’m wrong. 

 

We all hope we're wrong.  Who isn't hoping to finally win the Big one!!  Contrary to the assertions of some.  

 

That's not what the forum is for however, to all agree and cheerlead.  It's for discussion.  

 

 

2 hours ago, hondo in seattle said:

It doesn't happen as often in the playoffs because (1) tougher opponents, (2) injuries, and (3) bad luck.   It's not because McD suddenly turns into a coaching moron.  

 

You're getting warmer.  

 

 

 

 

[Mikie2times]

-The Bills are 48-18 since 2020 with a regular season win % of 72.7%. All 4 season Josh Allen posted a QBR of 65 or higher. 

 

-The rest of the NFL is 211-73 (74.3% winning %) since 2020 when a team has a QB with a 65 or higher QBR on the year and at least 10 starts.