McDermott Growth/Expectations

[mrags]

4 minutes ago, GoBills808 said:

the conceit is that 'well Mahomes and the Chiefs are in the way, so of course we can't win'

 

which disregards the extent to which we routinely get abused on defense in the postseason. Even a mediocre defensive performance in either 2021 or 2023 would have been enough to get past the Chiefs twice...supposedly McDermott's area of expertise

Right? 
 

for a defensive “guru” he sure has a terrible defense in the playoffs EVERY SINGLE YEAR. But apparently I’m an idiot because I don’t know how to cover Travis Kelce. Well, he doesn’t either so I guess he’s no better than me. That’s it, I’m coaching the team this year. 

[Matt_In_NH]

4 hours ago, PBF81 said:

Yes, intellectually lazy if that's the extent of your research.  

If I am intellectually lazy then you are intellectually lacking.   

[Mikie2times]

Joe Burrow on his first 3 drives vs Buffalo

 

14 for 14, 181 Yards, 3 TD's 

 

[GoBills808]

Just now, mrags said:

Right? 
 

for a defensive “guru” he sure has a terrible defense in the playoffs EVERY SINGLE YEAR. But apparently I’m an idiot because I don’t know how to cover Travis Kelce. Well, he doesn’t either so I guess he’s no better than me. That’s it, I’m coaching the team this year. 

yeah

 

the whole argument doesn't fly w me anymore. bengals defense doesn't have any trouble slowing down the chiefs in the playoffs. neither did the ravens or niners. we are the only one that just implodes in crunch time

[PBF81]

7 minutes ago, mrags said:

I agree. I think this is going to be a painful year. Unless like last year, McD and Brady just let Allen do his thing and go win games because they are struggling. I 100% believe Allen has a down year. And I’m not sure it’ll be on his weapons but more of the play style that McDermott and Brady implement. I argue we won’t make the playoffs either. Sucks. But that’s my opinion 

 

Well, the thing about simply "making the playoffs" is that any number of circumstances can play into it.  

 

Think about all of the crappy teams over the years in siht divisions that made it for reasons of divisional attrition.  Teams with losing records have even made it a few times, and when notably better teams, just not aligned fortunately for them, were in the league.  That was the case with us in 2017.  We edged out both the Ravens and Chargers, who were both fundamentally better football teams than we were that season, to the tune of 9 PPG game better in point-differential.  That's huge!  

 

Suppose Rodgers goes down again.  Or Tua.  or for that matter Tua and Allen if you're the Jets, and Rodgers turns a pretty average season.  They could easily make it at 10-7 or 11-6 because our QBs go down.  NE had a divisional cakewalk throughout Brady's tenure.  We've had a relative divisional cakewalk since Brady's leaving NE.  

 

As well, if four of the opponents on your schedule see their starting QBs or premier DEs, etc. go down, then that can impact standings as well.  When we played the Chargers but barely beat them, they were without Herbert, Keenan Allen, and Bosa.  They were hot garbage after that, but it was one of our wins  Doesn't matter whether or not "we can control who we play," that's hardly earning a win.  Again, we barely beat a team led by Stick, no one of consequence at WR, and a 24th ranked D.  As merely one example.  

 

Anyway, making the playoffs is overrated, especially with nearly half the teams in the league making them, ... unless you're coming off of a 20-year drought era.  LOL  It's what you do when you get to the playoffs that matters.  

 

Having said that, there's zero excuse for a team led by Allen to even miss the playoffs.  

 

 

[mrags]

5 minutes ago, GoBills808 said:

yeah

 

the whole argument doesn't fly w me anymore. bengals defense doesn't have any trouble slowing down the chiefs in the playoffs. neither did the ravens or niners. we are the only one that just implodes in crunch time

My bigger issue is the fact that we beat them in the season every single year. But when it comes to the playoffs we can’t do it. Not at home. Not at KC. What’s the reason for that? It’s because McDermott has his balls removed the minute the regular season ends. And he coaches not to lose instead of to win. It’s infuriating to me. I know he can do it. But he continues to prove that when it matters most he becomes too conservative and won’t take chances. And the ones that he does are the most ridiculous ones I ever saw in my life. Like Hamlin running a fake punt on 4th down. This tells me that the NFL isn’t scripted, because if it was, we would have won on the thought that Hamlin would be the hero, alone. 

[PBF81]

14 minutes ago, Matt_In_NH said:

If I am intellectually lazy then you are intellectually lacking.   

 

LOL 

 

Really?  

 

SMH ... why do you even bother.  

 

 

[mrags]

3 minutes ago, PBF81 said:

 

Well, the thing about simply "making the playoffs" is that any number of circumstances can play into it.  

 

Think about all of the crappy teams over the years in siht divisions that made it for reasons of divisional attrition.  Teams with losing records have even made it a few times, and when notably better teams, just not aligned fortunately for them, were in the league.  That was the case with us in 2017.  We edged out both the Ravens and Chargers, who were both fundamentally better football teams than we were that season, to the tune of 9 PPG game better in point-differential.  That's huge!  

 

Suppose Rodgers goes down again.  Or Tua.  or for that matter Tua and Allen if you're the Jets, and Rodgers turns a pretty average season.  They could easily make it at 10-7 or 11-6 because our QBs go down.  NE had a divisional cakewalk throughout Brady's tenure.  We've had a relative divisional cakewalk since Brady's leaving NE.  

 

As well, if four of the opponents on your schedule see their starting QBs or premier DEs, etc. go down, then that can impact standings as well.  When we played the Chargers but barely beat them, they were without Herbert, Keenan Allen, and Bosa.  They were hot garbage after that, but it was one of our wins  Doesn't matter whether or not "we can control who we play," that's hardly earning a win.  Again, we barely beat a team led by Stick, no one of consequence at WR, and a 24th ranked D.  As merely one example.  

 

Anyway, making the playoffs is overrated, especially with nearly half the teams in the league making them, ... unless you're coming off of a 20-year drought era.  LOL  It's what you do when you get to the playoffs that matters.  

 

Having said that, there's zero excuse for a team led by Allen to even miss the playoffs.  

 

 

Get ready for an uninspiring season imo. Really hope I’m wrong. 

[Robert Paulson]

8 hours ago, mrags said:

He will not be better 

He took us from terrible to very good.

 

I don't think he is the guy to take us from very good to World Champs.

 

He freezes and gets too scared/conservative in big moments. 

 

I hope he lets Bobby Babich run the D and call plays without micromanaging so McDermott can focus on head coach decisions: strategy/changes in all 3 phases, timeouts, challenges etc.

 

I don't think he will be able to stay away from meddling with the play calling and it will cost us. I hope he proves me wrong.

10 minutes ago, mrags said:

My bigger issue is the fact that we beat them in the season every single year. But when it comes to the playoffs we can’t do it. Not at home. Not at KC. What’s the reason for that? It’s because McDermott has his balls removed the minute the regular season ends. And he coaches not to lose instead of to win. It’s infuriating to me. I know he can do it. But he continues to prove that when it matters most he becomes too conservative and won’t take chances. And the ones that he does are the most ridiculous ones I ever saw in my life. Like Hamlin running a fake punt on 4th down. This tells me that the NFL isn’t scripted, because if it was, we would have won on the thought that Hamlin would be the hero, alone. 

THIS

Edited May 20 by Robert Paulson

[hondo in seattle]

1 hour ago, PBF81 said:

...

 

OK, so given the strength of our roster these days, featuring Allen and the #1 D, how do you evaluate our playoff performances under McD with Allen at QB?  

 

That's the topic that we're discussing.  The regular season is pointless other than to make the playoffs, whereupon the real goal (should) start.  Sure, some here have said that they're fine with losing as long as we have a team in Buffalo, but that's really not germane to the discussion either.  

 

...

 

 

 

McD's first playoff loss wasn't much of a disappointment to me because it was so expected.  That roster just wasn't good.

 

Since then, I've had some higher expectations.  But at the beginning of the playoffs, I never thought, "This is our year."  The landscape was never particularly favorable.  Every year, there were teams that were healthier, or better, or both.  

 

So overall, I think McD's playoff record is about what I'd expect given the strength of the roster at the start of the playoffs.  And I suppose that, in itself, is disappointing.  You want the coach to elevate the team and squeak out some victories against better squads.  McD hasn't done that - not in the playoffs. 

 

Though, any statistician will tell you about the importance of sample size.  Coaches don't coach enough in the playoffs for their performance there to become a meaningful sample.  But they do coach a lot of regular-season games.  And the Bills' success is well known...

 

Since 2020:

KC   51-16

Bills  48-18

Packers 43-24

Cowboys 42-25

49ers 41-16

 

When pitted against other NFL coaches, McD usually comes out on top.  It doesn't happen as often in the playoffs because (1) tougher opponents, (2) injuries, and (3) bad luck.   It's not because McD suddenly turns into a coaching moron.  Anyway, the small sample size makes the record an almost meaningless metric.   Reid went 6-5 in his first 11 playoff games.  McD's 5-6.  I'm hoping things coalesce and McD, like Reid, ends up with 3 rings.   

 

 

 

 

[<bills4life>]

1 hour ago, Augie said:

 

Yeah, he’s got the 2nd most wins in the last 5 years behind only Andy Reid, he’s won the AFCE 4 years in a row and he has the best winning percentage in franchise history.  That gets you a smoldering hot seat?  I think thought beats emotion in terms of outcomes. My Big Picture with no anger says we are in good hands. 

 

The “fire the bum” crowd are delusional about how hard it is to do better.  I prefer to let him keep doing a great job, and getting better every year. It took Andy Reid a while too. 

Regular season champs.  Great I guess. McDermott is not horrible or a bum. His in game coaching decisions especially in the playoffs at critical junctures vs. other well coached teams leaves a lot to be desired.  I would also counter that many average head coaches would have an outstanding record with josh allen as their qb.  Is McDermott the one to take us to a Super Bowl or afc championship game moving forward?  I’m skeptical. I also take issue with the quote “and getting better every year”.  I see the same coach with same philosophy making critical mistakes in high pressure situations during the playoffs.   I’m glad the bills are relevant, however how much of that is because of josh and beane.  13 second ridiculous, fake punts at your thirty in 3rd quarter with score 20-17. Absurd. Up 13-0 vs Houston only to blow it.  Totally pushed around by Cincy at home.  I’m just not a fan of his at all.  I respect your opinion though.

[Jauronimo]

8 minutes ago, BullBuchanan said:

Except when the things that almost happened later do in fact happen. Just because you don't get burned every single time, doesn't mean you aren't screwing up. We had the Hail Murray, and then allowed the exact same situation the very next week against San Diego that just happened to not burn them. They collapsed against Tampa Bay last year and were a pass interference call away from being knocked out of playoff contention. We get annual reminders ever year when we play KC or Cincinnati exactly who Sean McDermott is, and some people insist on ignoring all of his miscues because of regular season win totals and just throw on a surprised face when we melt in the game's biggest moments.

LOL at hail mary defense.  Do you have any idea how many hail mary's almost connect but don't every week?  There's a reason why its the lowest % play in football.  Its always so close yet so far.  And it was pretty well defended in Arizona.  How many more guys do you want around the ball? Perhaps McD should have coached Hyde or Tre to be taller.  

 

I am really struggling to see how any of this relates to your McD = Jauron argument.  Looks like you have abandoned that (if so, smart) but lets not pretend that this discussion started over my impassioned defense of McD.

 

Jauron was the most conservative coach the franchise has seen and played every game not to lose.  McD leads the league in going for it on fourth down.  Jauron regularly punted the ball away from inside the 50.  He was the least inspiring person to ever walk into OBD.  If you still think McD=Jauron then we can add it your growing list of spicy takes.

[FireChans]

49 minutes ago, mrags said:

I agree. I think this is going to be a painful year. Unless like last year, McD and Brady just let Allen do his thing and go win games because they are struggling. I 100% believe Allen has a down year. And I’m not sure it’ll be on his weapons but more of the play style that McDermott and Brady implement. I argue we won’t make the playoffs either. Sucks. But that’s my opinion 

Lol painful year.

 

guarantee we cruise to the playoffs. 

[<bills4life>]

45 minutes ago, mrags said:

Right? 
 

for a defensive “guru” he sure has a terrible defense in the playoffs EVERY SINGLE YEAR. But apparently I’m an idiot because I don’t know how to cover Travis Kelce. Well, he doesn’t either so I guess he’s no better than me. That’s it, I’m coaching the team this year. 

Can I be your assistant?  I promise I will not call a fake punt at our 30 yd line utilizing Damar Hamlin.

[GoBills808]

4 minutes ago, FireChans said:

Lol painful year.

 

guarantee we cruise to the playoffs. 

I think that's very optimistic tbh

 

considering we very nearly missed the playoffs this past yr w a better roster

[FireChans]

45 minutes ago, GoBills808 said:

yeah

 

the whole argument doesn't fly w me anymore. bengals defense doesn't have any trouble slowing down the chiefs in the playoffs. neither did the ravens or niners. we are the only one that just implodes in crunch time

Mahomes is 15-1 in the playoffs against QB’s not named Brady. 
 

Everyone has trouble slowing them down lol.

Just now, GoBills808 said:

I think that's very optimistic tbh

 

considering we very nearly missed the playoffs this past yr w a better roster

We finished as the 2 seed. 
 

No matter McD’s faults, no one can argue the defense doesn’t come to play most of the time during the regular season. And Allen is still a top 2 QB. We will be a playoff team unless Allen misses significant time.

[GoBills808]

Just now, FireChans said:

Mahomes is 15-1 in the playoffs against QB’s not named Brady. 
 

Everyone has trouble slowing them down lol.

If you like I can pull up the numbers again

 

They do not support it

[<bills4life>]

1 minute ago, GoBills808 said:

I think that's very optimistic tbh

 

considering we very nearly missed the playoffs this past yr w a better roster

I feel the same way.  I hope everyone else is right. Because if they do not make the playoffs there are going to be a lot of upset people. 

[Ethan in Cleveland]

I promised to be positive and not negative this summer

 

My take is any HC in this league wins 9 and maybe 10 games with a healthy Allen. I think McD may win two games and lose two to three games as HC. Look at last year. His defense impressively shut down Miami twice. Then his defense choked wins away against Jets, Broncos, and Eagles(twice). 

 

If Bills had not made the playoffs last year I would have fired him. I don't like how he treated Diggs. 

 

For me it is SuperBowl appearance or get a new coach in 2025.

 

 

[Buffalo Boy]

2 hours ago, Augie said:

 

The problem is, if you have a great OC he will quickly get poached and become a HC. A great DC is less likely to get poached for HC. I really like McD in general, but a defensive minded HC will lead to a lot of turnover at OC whether you hit or miss. 

Dennison was let go.

Daboll = Poached ( due to the success  of the O/Allen )

That’s it for the poaching.

Dorsey was ooof.

 

Taking Brady on was a shrewd move as he was an up and comer who had the experience of running an O. We shall see if there is some magic there ( there might be) but by the looks of it they are trying to create a ball control O. This doesn’t look like it will lead to him being taken from us, at this point.

 

 

2 hours ago, Augie said:

 

Yeah, he’s got the 2nd most wins in the last 5 years behind only Andy Reid, he’s won the AFCE 4 years in a row and he has the best winning percentage in franchise history.  That gets you a smoldering hot seat?  I think thought beats emotion in terms of outcomes. My Big Picture with no anger says we are in good hands. 

 

The “fire the bum” crowd are delusional about how hard it is to do better.  I prefer to let him keep doing a great job, and getting better every year. It took Andy Reid a while too. 

A.R. Was demonstrably better as was posted up thread.