McDermott Growth/Expectations

[TFBillsfan]

McDermott is going into his 7th season as the Bills head coach. His staff beneath him has turned over with a new DC and it’s Brady’s first full season as OC. The schedule is loaded and the AFCE has improved.

 

Curious what your expectations are of McDermott? What areas do you hope/expect he improves at?

 

McDermott has been a solid coach with lots of positives but far too often stumbles a few times per season against a lesser team, struggles to make in game adjustments and come the playoffs, he gets outcoached in key games and his team has failed to execute at critical moments. Overall, he has a losing record in the playoffs at 5-6.

[FireChans]

The only expectation I have for him is that he cannot lose again to non-Chiefs teams in the playoffs.

 

if we lose to the greatest dynasty in the NFL currently, oh well.

 

If he loses to the Ravens or Bengals or Texans in the postseason, he’s gotta go. 
 

Imo.

[Breakout Squad]

Most of my friends hate McD. I gently remind them of 17 years of futility that has been replaced by expectations of winning every year 🤷

[mrags]

He will continue to make stupid mistakes and hope his superstar QB can minimize his F-ups. There will be at least 2 times this season where he will make the same mistakes he has in the past and we will be wondering wtf, how has this idiot not learned his lessons from the last. 

[Breakout Squad]

2 minutes ago, mrags said:

He will continue to make stupid mistakes and hope his superstar QB can minimize his F-ups. There will be at least 2 times this season where he will make the same mistakes he has in the past and we will be wondering wtf, how has this idiot not learned his lessons from the last. 

Expecting him to be better is obvious. Expecting perfection is unrealistic. 

[TFBillsfan]

Just now, Breakout Squad said:

Most of my friends hate McD. I gently remind them of 17 years of futility that has been replaced by expectations of winning every year 🤷

It’s a fine line. He’s done a great job turning around the franchise but I’ve expected better growth from him.  For as much as he preaches fundamentals, execution and preparation his teams struggles when it matters most. IMO, this is a big season for him to step up. 

[mrags]

4 minutes ago, Breakout Squad said:

Expecting him to be better is obvious. Expecting perfection is unrealistic. 

He will not be better 

[Logic]

I was calling for McDermott's head midway through last season.

From the point at which the Dunne article was published onward, I thought he actually showed a lot of improvement. His calls got gutsier. He showed more trust in both his offense and his defense.

There were times when he got so bold in his decision making -- particularly going for it on 4th down on the Bills' own side of the field -- that even I was like "now wait a second coach...".

I'll give McDermott this: I feel he has shown consistent improvement from the time he became head coach of the Buffalo Bills until now. It's gotten to the point where the Bills are routinely at the top of the "how often teams go for it on 4th down when they should" lists, neutral situation passing rate lists, and a bunch of other things that analytics tell us add up to generally good decision making.

I would argue that his coaching in the playoff hasn't improved at the same rate that his regular season coaching has improved. I do still think he tightens up in the biggest moments, and it costs the Bills football games. Think of the fake punt in the Chiefs game, or the way the Bills handled the end of the game coming out of the two minute warning. 

If he can just figure out how to loosen up and fix his playoff foibles the way he's fixed his regular season foibles, then I think he can have an Andy Reid like second act of his career. People forget that Reid used to be routinely pilloried for his bad decision making and playoff failures -- until he wasn't. 

All in all, I expect McDermott to continue to be a better than average regular season coach who routinely gets his teams 10+ wins and a playoff ticket. It's his performance in the "second season" that needs to improve if the Bills are to ever win a title.

[Gregg]

The good - turned around the franchise along with Beane to end the 17-year playoff drought. Lots of successful winning seasons as 6 playoff appearances in 7 years prove.

 

The bad - Zero Super Bowl championships along with zero Super Bowl appearances. 

 

At some point his seat "should" get hot despite the regular season success. I just don't know if Terry will make the change. 

[Buffalo Boy]

31 minutes ago, mrags said:

He will continue to make stupid mistakes and hope his superstar QB can minimize his F-ups. There will be at least 2 times this season where he will make the same mistakes he has in the past and we will be wondering wtf, how has this idiot not learned his lessons from the last. 

Unfortunately, I expect that in the playoffs where his pucker factor seems to effect his coaching acumen and decision making😠

[PBF81]

1 hour ago, TFBillsfan said:

McDermott is going into his 7th season as the Bills head coach. His staff beneath him has turned over with a new DC and it’s Brady’s first full season as OC. The schedule is loaded and the AFCE has improved.

 

He's going into his  8th season as head coach.  

 

 

1 hour ago, TFBillsfan said:

Curious what your expectations are of McDermott? What areas do you hope/expect he improves at?

 

How is that measured?  Wins & Playoff performance?  

 

 

1 hour ago, TFBillsfan said:

McDermott has been a solid coach with lots of positives but far too often stumbles a few times per season against a lesser team, struggles to make in game adjustments and come the playoffs, he gets outcoached in key games and his team has failed to execute at critical moments. Overall, he has a losing record in the playoffs at 5-6.

 

Nearly half of Allen's passing TDs and yardage are gone.  It's easy to suggest that someone will replace that, it's another thing to do it.  For years we were crying about a #1 WR, got Diggs, who according to everyone made a difference, now we're expected to believe that it doesn't matter again.  LOL 

Brady's got a huge mystery meat component to him.  Will that impact the teflon-coated McD if he fails to live up to the hype?  

 

It's pretty clear that we're moving in the direction of being a ball-control shorter passing team with a greater emphasis on running.  Is that the formula that has made us successful to the extent that we've been successful under McD to date?  The data to reach an obvious conclusion is readily available.  

 

BTW, 4 of those 5 playoff wins, apart from three having been against teams featuring backup caliber QBs, and two nearly having been lost to inferior teams, were against weaker wild-card teams.   

 

Not once in the playoffs in seven seasons have we taken it to a comparable or stronger team for a playoff win.   One could argue Baltimore, but given the way that Jackson chokes come playoff time and who is the antithesis of Allen in the playoffs, that's an uphill argument.  

 

 

Edited May 20 by PBF81

[Logic]

4 minutes ago, PBF81 said:

 

Not once in the playoffs in seven seasons have we taken it to a comparable or stronger team.  

 

That's simply not true.

In both this season's Chiefs playoff game and the 13 seconds game, we "took it to" the Chiefs.

We also "took it to", and beat, the Ravens with Lamar in 2020 (and yes, I realize he exited the game with injury, but he played the majority of it).

I agree that McDermott hasn't been what he needs to be in the playoffs, and as I just stated above, if he doesn't fix that, then the Bills will never win a title. But to say the bills have "not once" "take it to" a comparable or stronger team is simply not true.

[PBF81]

1 hour ago, Breakout Squad said:

Most of my friends hate McD. I gently remind them of 17 years of futility that has been replaced by expectations of winning every year 🤷

 

Funny how that expectation didn't arise until Allen hit stride. 

 

How quickly many forget how the heat was on McD prior to Allen's breaking out in 2020.  

 

 

2 minutes ago, Logic said:

That's simply not true.

In both this season's Chiefs playoff game and the 13 seconds game, we "took it to" the Chiefs.

We also "took it to", and beat, the Ravens with Lamar in 2020 (and yes, I realize he exited the game with injury, but he played the majority of it).

I agree that McDermott hasn't been what he needs to be in the playoffs, and as I just stated above, if he doesn't fix that, then the Bills will never win a title. But to say the bills have "not once" "take it to" a comparable or stronger team is simply not true.

 

In a win.  I'll make the change.  

 

I don't consider losing taking it to anyone.  

 

And yeah, the 13-seconds game, but doesn't that support the playoff argument.  I mean snatching defeat out of the jaws of victory should hardly be a feather in a coach's cap.  LOL  

 

 

Edited May 20 by PBF81

[mrags]

36 minutes ago, Buffalo Boy said:

Unfortunately, I expect that in the playoffs where his pucker factor seems to effect his coaching acumen and decision making😠

100% this happens. He turtles so much in the playoffs. 

[Logic]

9 minutes ago, PBF81 said:

 

 

In a win.  I'll make the change.  

 

I don't consider losing taking it to anyone.  

 

And yeah, the 13-seconds game, but doesn't that support the playoff argument.  I mean snatching defeat out of the jaws of victory should hardly be a feather in a coach's cap.  LOL  

 

 

Yeah, I'd say that's a pretty key difference.

The statement "never once in seven seasons have we BEATEN a comparable or stronger team in the playoffs" is mostly accurate. "Taken it to" usually means "put up a really good fight". and the Bills have done that multiple times.

In fact, I'd say there have only been two playoff games in which the Bills really didn't have a chance. The Chiefs AFCCG in 2020, in which the Chiefs were clearly the superior team, and the Bengals game in the 2022 playoffs, in which the Bills got blown off the field. Other than those two instances, I'd say the Bills pretty much ALWAYS take it to all their opponents in the playoffs. It's that pesky "winning the game" thing that they've failed to do on too many occasions. 

Edited May 20 by Logic

[PBF81]

1 hour ago, mrags said:

He will continue to make stupid mistakes and hope his superstar QB can minimize his F-ups. There will be at least 2 times this season where he will make the same mistakes he has in the past and we will be wondering wtf, how has this idiot not learned his lessons from the last. 

 

This is going to be a pivotal season for him.   The narratives on Brady contradict reality.  The team's MO is changing completely.  It's been a very ad hoc situation when we've been successful, and come playoff time that simply let Allen do what he does, but that's not really coaching.  Now we're switching from whatever mishmash that it's been to a c. '90s ball-control power running game featuring a passing game that Allen's never mastered.  Whether he masters that or not remains to be seen.  Whether Brady's worsening play at the end of last season is more the steady state than the Jets & Dallas games remains to be seen.  

 

At the end of the our talent on offense is not better, even by subtraction as so many like to point out, and our MO is not what suits Allen's style, and our defense, which rarely shows up in the playoffs anyway, has changed notably.  Whether that's a formula for improvement and continued success, we'll find out in a matter of months.  

 

Also, whether Allen continues to run the ball an average 9 times/game as he did under Brady, for what would be about 150 carries on the season, remains to be seen.  Is Davis capable of running the ball like Allen does in his place, again, we'll find out.  

 

Lots of unknowns this season.  

 

 

1 hour ago, Breakout Squad said:

Expecting him to be better is obvious. Expecting perfection is unrealistic. 

 

Perfection is one thing.  Not making blundering errors is not synonymous with lacking perfection.  Just sayin'.  

 

 

[BullBuchanan]

1 hour ago, Breakout Squad said:

Most of my friends hate McD. I gently remind them of 17 years of futility that has been replaced by expectations of winning every year 🤷

Take away Josh Allen and McDermott is just Dick Jauron: The Next Generation.

[nedboy7]

The expectation is for him to overachieve with this team and the WR room they put together.  

[Logic]

12 minutes ago, BullBuchanan said:

Take away Josh Allen and McDermott is just Dick Jauron: The Next Generation.

Bad/lazy take.

Jauron was 60-82 as a head coach.

McDermott is 73-41 as a head coach.

Jauron had a .42 win percentage as a head coach.

McDermott has a .64 win percentage as a head coach, which is best all time for the Buffalo Bills, and just below Andy Reid and Bill Belichick's career win percentages.

Dick Jauron had one playoff season in 10 seasons as head coach. He was 0-1 in the playoffs.

Sean McDermott has had six playoff seasons out of seven seasons as head coach. He is 5-6 in the playoffs.

I'm no McDermott apologist, and I'm not sure he's the man for the job long term, but to compare him to Jauron is simply unreasonable and unrealistic.

[34-78-83]

Much of this is the same people making the same arguments across dozens and dozens of different threads. Yawn.

 

To the one point I can glean that hasn't been covered a million times... Yes I believe that unlike many HC's in the league, McD has shown the ability to grow and learn on the job and improve in many areas, and not stubbornly hold on to beliefs or strategies that have failed him.