What kind of season are you expecting from Josh Allen this year?

[Alphadawg7]

2 hours ago, FireChans said:

It depends on how well the guys around him do. If everyone is a 600-800 yard guy and they get smoked in the playoffs because the guys can’t get open vs man, I’ll probably still call them JAGS.

 

If a dude like Shakir drops a 1200 yard season on good efficiency, I’ll probably agree he’s a pretty good weapon.

 

Fair enough

[FireChans]

1 hour ago, Alphadawg7 said:

 

Fair enough

It’s hard for me to take a back seat on the discussion on WR’s.

 

2 years ago, I was worried about the depth of Jake Kumerow as our backup outside WR. I posted about addressing the position more. It ultimately didn’t matter because no outside WR was saving us in the Bengals game. So fine. 

Last year, I was worried about the depth of Trent Sherfield as our backup outside WR. I posted about addressing the position more (and to be fair to Brandon Beane, I think they did miss out on the run of WR’s and Addison may be a Bill today if he was within striking distance). This came to pass when we had Trent whiffing in the postseason. 

 

And imo, we are there again. 3 years running.

 

 All I know is that Josh Allen had his best year of his career when he had one star receiving option and 3 other legit NFL starters as receiving options. That group was able to ride out one of those receivers getting injured and missing part of the year in large part because they had quality players waiting in the wings.  He has never been farther from that level of talent than he is right now. Jmo.

 

[Hermes]

43 minutes ago, FireChans said:

It’s hard for me to take a back seat on the discussion on WR’s.

 

2 years ago, I was worried about the depth of Jake Kumerow as our backup outside WR. I posted about addressing the position more. It ultimately didn’t matter because no outside WR was saving us in the Bengals game. So fine. 

Last year, I was worried about the depth of Trent Sherfield as our backup outside WR. I posted about addressing the position more (and to be fair to Brandon Beane, I think they did miss out on the run of WR’s and Addison may be a Bill today if he was within striking distance). This came to pass when we had Trent whiffing in the postseason. 

 

And imo, we are there again. 3 years running.

 

 All I know is that Josh Allen had his best year of his career when he had one star receiving option and 3 other legit NFL starters as receiving options. That group was able to ride out one of those receivers getting injured and missing part of the year in large part because they had quality players waiting in the wings.  He has never been farther from that level of talent than he is right now. Jmo.

 

 

I definitely understand the trepidation with the WR core the Bills are currently fielding. But, think about it this way..

when Diggs first came to the Bills he was a good player, when he played with Allen he was Elite, John Brown was good, and with Allen; he was close, but wasn't quite great, Beasley before was mediocre, and with Josh was good. On top of the fact these players grew with Josh over a few seasons. (Do you see where I'm going with this?) 

 

JOSH ALLEN MAKES THE PLAYERS AROUND HIM BETTER.

 

Josh himself has grown as a player over the past few seasons and he is now in charge of the offense. He has a RB room that can (sometimes) catch and move with the ball, an upgraded OL and no more hand holding from OCs to reign him in or coddle him, no Diggs "teaching" him how to be a 'leader' in the NFL, he's the Franchise now. It's his ship and it's sink or swim, I hope he wears his big boy pants this season. 

 

To the recievers; as it stands they have a number of unknowns and reclamation projects. Hopefully it works out for the best, right? 

 

How I see it, the Bills have at least 2-3 "legit" starting options as you've called them in Samuel, Shakir, Kincaid, Coleman(?), possibly Knox, and maybe Claypool (based off of his 2 good years).  While the team doesn't presently have a Diggs-level WR, there's talented players in place to step up. Kincaid, Samuel, Shakir, or Coleman (and again the dark horse Claypool) all have a path to be the top receiver on the team and end up with 1000+ yards. While the top end isn't quite there yet (maybe it is? We won't know until after this season) this year's crop is almost undoubtedly deeper than years past and has a much higher potential ceiling.

 

Sure the team lost a lot of targets, but the production based of those targets wasn't commensurate to a successful offense. Forcing the ball to one great player and hoping Gabe pulls out a miracle game, seems to me like a losing recipe when you have a player as good as Allen at the helm. The plan to load up on guys who are better than the CB2/3 or S/LB they're lined up against and let Allen play keep away seems to me, the better plan.

 

Just let the man be great!

 

IN JOSH WE TRUST 

[FireChans]

5 minutes ago, Hermes said:

I definitely understand the trepidation with the WR core the Bills are currently fielding. But, think about it this way..

when Diggs first came to the Bills he was a good player, when he played with Allen he was Elite, John Brown was good, and with Allen; he was close, but wasn't quite great, Beasley before was mediocre, and with Josh was good. On top of the fact these players grew with Josh over a few seasons. (Do you see where I'm going with this?) 

This is a complete misrepresentation of these player's values.

 

Stefon Diggs was the 11th highest paid WR in 2019. He was traded for a first round and 4th round pick (with a discount because he was being his normal locker room cancer self). Of course, Diggs had just posted back to back 1000+ yard seasons.

 

Brown and Beasley were the 24th and 29th highest paid WR's in football in 2019. Of the UFA WR's signed in FA that year, they were the 3rd and 5th highest paid WR's.

 

FWIW, Curtis Samuel signed the fifth highest FA contract this year. Claypool doesn't appear on the list (lol). Samuel is the 31st highest paid WR in the NFL currently.

 

And they added on a 4th round pick in Gabe Davis in 2020.

 

16 minutes ago, Hermes said:

How I see it, the Bills have at least 2-3 "legit" starting options as you've called them in Samuel, Shakir, Kincaid, Coleman(?), possibly Knox, and maybe Claypool (based off of his 2 good years).  While the team doesn't presently have a Diggs-level WR, there's talented players in place to step up. Kincaid, Samuel, Shakir, or Coleman (and again the dark horse Claypool) all have a path to be the top receiver on the team and end up with 1000+ yards. While the top end isn't quite there yet (maybe it is? We won't know until after this season) this year's crop is almost undoubtedly deeper than years past and has a much higher potential ceiling

 

Do they?

 

Shakir is promising. Coleman is a second round pick, is he gonna be a legit top 30-40 WR right off the bus?  Samuel and Kincaid are definitely NFL starters.

 

Claypool is a lotto ticket and a bad one. He's on his 4th team in 3 years. The teams that spent a second round pick gave up on him, twice. How many of those players recover their careers ever?

 

20 minutes ago, Hermes said:

Sure the team lost a lot of targets, but the production based of those targets wasn't commensurate to a successful offense. Forcing the ball to one great player and hoping Gabe pulls out a miracle game, seems to me like a losing recipe when you have a player as good as Allen at the helm.

You say this, but literally the best year of Allen's career came when he had a great player that got the lion's share of targets and ALSO had a stable of other good receiving options. That was also coincidentally the farthest the Bills got in the playoffs. So what is the evidence for this?

 

Besides "it's what the Bills are doing so let's hope for the best?"

[Hermes]

1 hour ago, FireChans said:

This is a complete misrepresentation of these player's values.

 

Stefon Diggs was the 11th highest paid WR in 2019. He was traded for a first round and 4th round pick (with a discount because he was being his normal locker room cancer self). Of course, Diggs had just posted back to back 1000+ yard seasons.

 

Brown and Beasley were the 24th and 29th highest paid WR's in football in 2019. Of the UFA WR's signed in FA that year, they were the 3rd and 5th highest paid WR's.

 

FWIW, Curtis Samuel signed the fifth highest FA contract this year. Claypool doesn't appear on the list (lol). Samuel is the 31st highest paid WR in the NFL currently.

 

And they added on a 4th round pick in Gabe Davis in 2020.

 

 

Do they?

 

Shakir is promising. Coleman is a second round pick, is he gonna be a legit top 30-40 WR right off the bus?  Samuel and Kincaid are definitely NFL starters.

 

Claypool is a lotto ticket and a bad one. He's on his 4th team in 3 years. The teams that spent a second round pick gave up on him, twice. How many of those players recover their careers ever?

 

You say this, but literally the best year of Allen's career came when he had a great player that got the lion's share of targets and ALSO had a stable of other good receiving options. That was also coincidentally the farthest the Bills got in the playoffs. So what is the evidence for this?

 

Besides "it's what the Bills are doing so let's hope for the best?"

 

So when you talk about the value of players does every QB who makes more than Allen a better QB than him? What about the players who were traded for 1sts or other high picks? DeShawn Watson-Elite, Russell Wilson- Elite, Danny Dimes-GOAT. There's a lot of players who you might claim to be high value based off your metrics but in game situations have less value than their market value.

 

In Diggs time here he was a great player, before that I'd put him on the cusp. It's all about perspective, and what you percieve as value, Diggs,when he was traded was playing second fiddle to Adam Thielan.  I'm not sure what exactly was going on in MN at the time but that doesn't exactly scream elite to me. So yeah he had btb 1000+ yards, Claypool (lol about him not making the cut) had btb 800+ yards. Not last year, but as a rookie and 2nd year player (there's talent there). He fell off and may or may not suck now, we'll see.

 

Cole Beasley was 2 years removed from his best season aside from Allen and he had 75-830-5 as a 5th year player, Shakir just last year had 39-610-2 as a second year player(including his 2nd half of the season uptick in production)

 

John Brown actually has a better best season without Allen than I thought at 65-1003-7 which was 3 seasons before he played with Josh, Curtis Samuel had his best year 3 seasons before with 77-850-3

 

There's definitely a statistical drop-off when comparing just the raw data but that doesn't get into a more nuanced discussion about the players' traits and how they'll fit into the current offense

 

Kincaid had 73-670-2 as a rookie TE which are top rookie Tight end numbers. If he can take a step that's half the battle.

 

Cook last year had 44-440-4, Singletary had 38-280-1 last year.

 

Admittedly RB and TE aren't WR, that doesn't diminish the role they'll play on the offense. I'm anticipating Cook and Kincaid to be main features in the Bills offensive attack. Which is something the Bills never done before in the Allen era. 

 

As much as I wanted to like Gabe, he, much like Mckittrick, was a clown and the Bills will be better simply not having him on the field.

 

Coleman will probably see at least 75-100 targets this season and who knows how that shakes out. I'd reckon that its better than we saw with Davis last year

 

Also when you look back at when the Bills signed Smoke and Beasley I would argue neither was particularly coveted by front offices. Sure they're good role players but that's about it.  Honestly Brown and Samuel are essentially the same player in my mind, and from what I've seen from Shakir is a younger, faster, more agile player than Beasley ever was with the Bills. So apples to apples I feel pretty good about those 2. 

 

So all that's left is to replace Diggs and his massive target share. Which in theory will be distributed amongst the rest of the group and will determine the fate of the offense. The crux of this is that since the Bills are deeper overall that those 160 targets won't all be thrown into double coverage or against an elite CB1. They'll be able to attack the field in a variety of ways that wouldn't be possibly otherwise when they're funneling the ball to their high-value diva. 

 

Simply put I value the youth and potential of this group of pass catchers more than you, I also believe that Allen is a much better player than he was when he put up his best statistical season. He's gotten better every year. Unless you think he peaked, we all just saw it last year with Mahomes. Great QBs make the player around them better.  

 

[Call_Of_Ktulu]

I’m expecting a huge season passing 40tds 10 ints 4,000+ yards

[Fr. Jerk]

MVP, ya dig?