What kind of season are you expecting from Josh Allen this year?

[Your Brown Eye]

I voted worse than the previous two seasons. I am skeptical about his weapons this year versus what he had the last two years. I would like to be wrong and hope I am. I definitely do not think it'll be his worst since his first two years.

[buffblue]

When you consider his TD to INT ratio was 29-18 last year, I find it very hard to believe there won't be improvement (at least in that area) 

[Craig Oi]

I went with about the same. 

[3rdand12]

Voted best of his career !

 Perhaps not statistically. But winning games by being smarter. With smarter play calling. using all his tools in his shed and borrowing some of the neighbors to get it done.

I always have high expectations when i believe in the Coaching and program. I had little hope last year and stopped watching the Bills for awhile

Dorsey made me ill. yes i have bias.

 I feel much better about Brady and Kromer etc this year

3 hours ago, MJS said:

It usually goes to the QB on the team with the best record. Or the QB with monster numbers that dwarf all others. That's why Jackson got it despite having worse numbers than Allen and a bunch of other QB's.

 

So, if Josh wants to win MVP, the Bills need to end the season with a 1 seed.

I think his rushing yards will increase. Maybe not his rushing TD's, because that was an insane number last year. But Allen is with a bunch of unproven or unfamiliar targets now, which to me means he will be more willing to keep the ball in his own hands until he develops the trust and chemistry with his new targets, which might happen fast, but might take a long time, or never...

Josh has to have more trust in ALL of his weapons. and no to the run.

Until .... it's a wide open 1st down cuz  D are all in coverage 🙂

[4merper4mer]

10 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

Certainly better than last year. I think last year was Josh's worst since he broke out. And I am not talking about the offense. I am talking about Josh. He was less consistent with his fundamentals and his decision making was more erratic. Not that he was terrible compared to his peers. He still played like a top half dozen QB. I don't think he was top 2 or 3 in 2023 though.

 

I am not saying he will have a career year but I don't discount it. If the weapons around him step up I could see a big bounce back.

This is a four page thread and you are early to post.  Having not read through yet my guess is that you’ll take heat for observing Josh was less than perfect last year.  Third rail stuff.

 

My take is that 2024 will be a transition year for Allen.  I’m more interested in the end than the beginning.  The Bills lost an absolute ton of serious leadership.  Diggs, Morse, even Davis on the O.  Poyer on the D.  We also lost Tre who was a definite leader but with more of a fun personality type.  The O leaders that are left: Josh, Dawkins, Brown, Knox…..they are all goofballs.  IMO we badly need Hyde for one more year.  2024 will require adaptability on Josh’s part in that he will have to be the adult in the room at times.  He has never had to be that.  We’ll see if he can do it.  Part of me wonders if Beane is playing 3D chess to force the issue by picking up malcontents like Claypool and MVS.  Too much comfort zone is bad for Josh.  I’d like to see him pissed off more frequently and Claypool will piss just about anyone off.  He is also expendable.

 

Allen has all the ability and on field desire that can be imagined.  Will he maximize his ability by making good decisions, preparing properly and leading?

 

My best guess is that the first half of the season is disappointing and bewildering.  I’m hopeful for the second half and even more hopeful for 2025 but he needs to get serious first.  Time to grow up.

[PromoTheRobot]

I expect Josh, Shakir, Cook and Kincaid to be good. I hope Dawson Knox rebounds. And I hope the O-line plays well. I hope Keon and Bishop show something.

Edited May 20 by PromoTheRobot

[MasterStrategist]

8 minutes ago, PBF81 said:

 

Thank you.  

 

It may be too early to come to a final decision, but is it too early to start connecting some dots.  

 

This obsession with "complimentary football" is worrysome and seems misplaced given that we have Allen.  The point behind it all is that Brady has zero experience in the role.   The odds are even greater that he's not that good than, that he is that good.  Allen will make him look better than he would otherwise as he has with everyone in the role.   Allen would make any OC look better than they are.  But a good OC would be able to get him to play to his ceiling, not to his average or worse.  

 

Having said what you said, it's at least equally remiss to insist that Brady's the solution, again, given that this was not the case under him at the end of the season.  Sure, worst case for Brady was that it was Dorsey's offense, but Brady was an integral part of it, shouldn't he have been able to make more out of it than Dorsey if he's truly the better option?   Everyone said, in creating the narrative, that Brady was better in terms of getting production (from both Allen and the O) than Dorsey was.  But that's been proven mathematically and factually false.  So now for that narrative to be true, other supporting evidence needs to come into play.  

 

Why the plummeting of Allen's metrics towards career worst then?    It makes no sense if that's the case.  

 

Again, all we are left with between now and then is to discuss it.  

 

 

 

That's an unjustifiably optimistic expectation.  It would mimic Allen's best season ever, but with a game that's focused on the running game and shorter high-percentage passing game, under which Allen's efficiency metrics are his worst.  

 

It doesn't make much sense that he'll rival his career yardage and TD production with an increased emphasis on running the ball and a shorter passing game generally speaking.  Right?  

 

BTW, still happy to discuss Coleman.  If you go thru that video again, just note the timestamps of the great catches that he made.  We can discuss further thereupon.  

 

 

Agree on complementary football, but depends how much we turn into a "conservative" offense.

 

Brady was a hot name his first year in Carolina, then was fired after very bad offensive output.  He reminds me a bit of the Daboll path, or pick another coach, that was young and "flashed" in another OC role, bit ultimately needed more time to learn in various roles.  

 

Re: Allen this upcoming year, I don't agree with your take about "mimic his best season ever".  And that is two-fold:

1. Yards, TDs are both in line with his averages, since 2020.  Except LY on TDs which I think is an outlier.  His INTs are a projection that is likely overly optimistic, but I could live with 14 INTs

 

2. I don't think Brady is going to turn us into a run first/solely short passing attack.  I think Cook got too many touches LY, and we will have some of those go to Davis this year/less Allen designed runs.  I think we will see just as many 20+ throws and better execution in the intermediate passing game.  Intermediate passing, counting on Kincaid and Shakir to improve and for us to have a better option than Gabe in Keon. 

 

I think if anything, we will see more screens in the passing game, RB and WR.  We brought in a 2nd RB who has been a good catching back in college, and Samuel offering better YAC than we got from anyone but Shakir LY.

 

Yes, these are based on non-statistical observations.  But same as me, you don't know how Brady is going to run his offense this year OR how our young playmakers handle more opportunities OR if there was something causing Josh to play worse LY (mentally, personally/coaching disagreements/Diggs drama/etc).

 

Bu understand if you have a different view.  Brady had some well called games, and other games where our offense looked downright terrible.  I give him benefit of the doubt, but if he starts the season slow it might be more than his head on chopping block.

 

And yes, I still will look at Colemans targets and get back to you.  Thanks

[Rocky Landing]

Whether intentionally, or not, I think Beane has filled out the roster in a way that will both challenge Josh Allen's leadership abilities, and bring back some of the fun to the game. One of the things I have really grown to love about Allen, and the culture that Beane/McDermott have built, is how much fun they have on the field, and as a team. Remember when Diggs first arrived? How much fun they had? How fun they were to watch, and follow? It seems like the last couple seasons (and especially last season) really sank into a downer. The Covid season was more fun than last season. 

 

For these reasons, I voted "Better," but of course, I'm holding out hope for "Best of his career."

[Steptide]

I think it all comes down to one thing - Joe Brady. If he is a good oc, it'll be Josh's best year 

[zow2]

Josh will not have 15 rushing TDs this season. Probably more like 8.  and i believe his INTs will be down and TDs slightly down as well. 

[PBF81]

1 hour ago, MasterStrategist said:

Agree on complementary football, but depends how much we turn into a "conservative" offense.

 

LOL, of course it does.  But it was pretty conservative at the end of last season, starting on Brady's watch.  More conservative than it's been since Allen broke out.  That's either one humongous coincidence or something closer to this season's reality.  

 

 

1 hour ago, MasterStrategist said:

Brady was a hot name his first year in Carolina, then was fired after very bad offensive output.  He reminds me a bit of the Daboll path, or pick another coach, that was young and "flashed" in another OC role, bit ultimately needed more time to learn in various roles.  

 

His offenses in Carolina were ranked 24th and 29th in Scoring and 21st and 30th in Yardage.  To the original point.  We can say he's not mystery meat, but he's hardly Ben Johnson either.  

 

 

1 hour ago, MasterStrategist said:

2. I don't think Brady is going to turn us into a run first/solely short passing attack.  I think Cook got too many touches LY, and we will have some of those go to Davis this year/less Allen designed runs.  I think we will see just as many 20+ throws and better execution in the intermediate passing game.  Intermediate passing, counting on Kincaid and Shakir to improve and for us to have a better option than Gabe in Keon. 

 

We'll find out.  Of course Cook got too many touches, but it was known when we drafted him that he was unlikely to be able to handle that workload.  His collegiate max was 140, he had twice that last season, but that's about where his play began to diminish.  But they continued to pound him even though his yards-per-carry average fell off by nearly 30%.  

 

So where are we placing responsibility for that miscue?  McD?  Beane?  ??  Who was the genius that couldn't conceive that when many of us warned about it upon drafting him and some people even had it in their draft profiles?  It wasn't exactly expert analysis to piece that one together.  

 

What's in Davis' dossier that suggests he's capable of playing to at least an average level in the NFL as such?  Nothing in his draft profiles, so what?  Moss and Sing both had greater draft profile potentials.  

 

 

1 hour ago, MasterStrategist said:

I think if anything, we will see more screens in the passing game, RB and WR.  We brought in a 2nd RB who has been a good catching back in college, and Samuel offering better YAC than we got from anyone but Shakir LY.

 

It seems that this is where they're going.  So riddle me this, since when has this been in Allen's repertoire?   College or pro.  The short correct answer is that it never has been.  In the short-medium game, Allen's average at best and not equal to his peers.  So once again, if that's true, that's why A, many are concerned, but more relevantly to the discussion, many question the use of Allen.  

 

Perhaps more importantly, how is that going to help open up the running lanes for Allen?  Is it a real reach to consider that if we're running an offense like that, his lanes may be more crowded?  This is common sense stuff, right?  

 

What did they say when the drafted him?  What, that he'd be great in the short-medium screen game?  Hardly.  ALL the talk was about his strong arm and how he could make every throw even while on the move.  Does that seem like the approach that they're taking?  

 

We also brought in Hines, one of the most prolific pass-catching RBs in NFL history, and you see how we used him in that regard after talking a great game in trading for him.  Nada.  They didn't use him at all.  Singletary had better credentials in the receiving game and we just threw him overboard.  Can we expect similar genius this season?  

 

It might be wise to pump the brakes emotionally in this way.  Our team has a strong history under McBeane of saying one thing and doing another, quite often the polar opposite.  

 

 

1 hour ago, MasterStrategist said:

Yes, these are based on non-statistical observations.  But same as me, you don't know how Brady is going to run his offense this year OR how our young playmakers handle more opportunities OR if there was something causing Josh to play worse LY (mentally, personally/coaching disagreements/Diggs drama/etc).

 

We don't know exactly, but we have some clues.  We'll see.  But we can't have it both ways, that the reason for the drop in production at the end of last season, the last 30% of the season, was because Brady was still using Dorsey's offense, while on the other hand all the reason for our wins had to do with Brady's offense.  Surely you can see the illogic there.  

 

 

1 hour ago, MasterStrategist said:

Bu understand if you have a different view.  Brady had some well called games, and other games where our offense looked downright terrible.  I give him benefit of the doubt, but if he starts the season slow it might be more than his head on chopping block.

 

And yes, I still will look at Colemans targets and get back to you.  Thanks

 

Thanks, and yeah, that'd be fun.  Let me know.  Just note the time stamps and we can discuss further.  

 

 

[Jerboski]

MVP season coming up 

it’s his time 

[Milanos Milano]

8 hours ago, PBF81 said:

 

Not true.  

 

To start you said December, so let's keep it to that.  (and January)  

 

Dec 2023: 

1,092 Yards, 5 TDs, 5 INTs, 81.8 Rating 

 

Dec 2022:  

1,100 Yards, 12 TDs, 3 INTs, 100.3 Rating 

 

Dec 2021:  

1,336 Yards 11 TDs, 5 INTs, 80.0 Rating 

 

Dec 2020:  

1,516 Yards, 15 TDs, 2 INTs, 117.5 Rating 

 

The average person would likely see a significant difference between last season's December games and those of the other three seasons.  His average TDs/game alone is 2.5 times greater in the past three seasons.   I suppose the definition of similar can be argued.  

 

This past season, the Dallas game was largely D and rushing that did the lifting there.  His KC game was among his worst on the season and was easily his worst passing game ever against KC.  His game vs. the Chargers was not good, particularly considering how terrible the Charger D was.  His game against NE was his worst game on the season.  His season-ender against Miami was also one of his worse games vs. Miami and he had some absolutely horrible throws in the red zone.  Our Brady O scored only 14 points and needed that Harty PR-TD to win it.  

 

 

I expect Josh to have a career year this year, but this is a little concerning. 

[wppete]

I think we will see the best Josh Allen next year. MVP season. 

[Sierra Foothills]

13 hours ago, PBF81 said:

 

 

 

It's pretty simple, this short/high-percentage game simply isn't Allen's forte`.  It's not.  But that's what they were trying to force him to do under Brady.  

 

For a prediction this season, and it depends upon what the definition of "what kind of season," since many reduce it to Ws/Ls, but if we're talking passing metrics, I'll lean towards Allens' regular season production under Brady.  If we take those stats and extrapolate them out for 17 games we get: 

 

4,148 Yards

24 TDs 

17 INTs 

60.7% Compl. % 

85.5 Rating 

 

The yardage, TD, INT, and Compl. % totals are fair given the circumstances.  I'd bump up the rating slightly, maybe into the low 90s, but well into average range for QBs.  Many are saying that his numbers will get better as Brady installs his game, but Allen's numbers last season under Brady were the best in his first two games under Brady where he had as many passing TDs in those two games as he did in the last five games.  

 

In the last five games Allen averaged 1 TD/game, 218 YPG, 1 INT/game, had an 81.8 rating, which is horrible, across the board.  

 

The offense is going to reflect McD's complimentary football definition.  That much we know.  Who knows, perhaps as was the case with Peterman McD throws in the towel to fan and media pressure and changes that.  Unfortunately for anyone hoping for big passing numbers, that's not consistent with that philosophy argue as one may to the contrary.  

 

One thing that Allen has always struggled with in both college as well as the NFL is checking down and hitting his more open and/or higher-percentage typically shorter options.  His metrics this season are going to be incredibly dependent upon his ability to improve there coupled with Brady's offensive game-planning/scheming.  

 

About the only sure thing is that it's not an odds-on prediction that Allen's metrics are among his best as his seasons have gone.  Sure, it could happen, but it's not at all likely.  

 

 

 

Thanks for posting the video. I did a basic audit and found this:

 

Josh's Interceptions

Vs	Yards beyond LOS	Intended Receiver
NYJ	60	Harty
NYJ	41	Diggs
NYJ	15	Davis
WAS	40	Davis
JAX	50	Diggs
NYG	11	Sherfield
NE	18	Knox
TB	-2	Kincaid
CIN	19	Davis
DEN	22	Davis
DEN	16	Harty
NYJ	48	Kincaid
PHI	3	Diggs
KC	14	Sherfield
LAC	43	Diggs
NE	40	Kincaid
MIA	8	Davis
MIA	40	Davis
Ave	28.67 yards

 

INTs per intended receiver

Player	INTs	%	Target % reg season
Davis	6	33%	14%
Diggs	4	22%	27%
Kincaid	3	17%	16%
Sherfield	2	11%	4%
Harty	2	11%	4%
Knox	1	6%	6%
Shakir	0	0%	8%

 

 

 

I think it's really interesting that Josh's average depth of interception is almost 29 yards. On many of those plays it seems he was just chucking the ball downfield and not showing much discipline.

 

Also interesting how incommensurately high the INT% to target % is for Davis, Sherfield, and Harty.

 

Note also that Shakir was not the intended receiver for any of Josh's INTs.

 

Edited May 21 by Sierra Foothills

[PBF81]

13 minutes ago, Sierra Foothills said:

 

Thanks for posting the video. I did a basic audit and found this:

 

Josh's Interceptions

Vs	Yards beyond LOS	Intended Receiver
NYJ	60	Harty
NYJ	41	Diggs
NYJ	15	Davis
WAS	40	Davis
JAX	50	Diggs
NYG	11	Sherfield
NE	18	Kincaid
TB	-2	Kincaid
CIN	19	Davis
DEN	22	Davis
DEN	16	Harty
NYJ	48	Kincaid
PHI	3	Diggs
KC	14	Sherfield
LAC	43	Diggs
NE	40	Kincaid
MIA	8	Davis
MIA	40	Davis
Ave	28.67 yards

 

INTs per intended receiver

Player	INTs	%	Target % reg season
Davis	6	33%	14%
Diggs	4	22%	27%
Kincaid	3	17%	16%
Sherfield	2	11%	4%
Harty	2	11%	4%
Knox	1	6%	6%
Shakir	0	0%	8%

 

 

 

I think it's really interesting that Josh's average depth of interception is almost 29 yards. On many of those plays it seems he was just chucking the ball downfield and not showing much discipline.

 

Also interesting how incommensurately high the INT% to target % is for Davis, Sherfield, and Harty.

 

Note also that Shakir was not the intended receiver for any of Josh's INTs.

 

 

Definitely interesting, lots of space for discussion there.  

 

The point however was in relation to Davis implicitly being responsible for those when he wasn't for the most part, rather they were either bad throws and/or poor choices for throws.  

 

Allen liked Davis which is why his TD% was so high.

 

It's also interesting that most were on the deep offensive side of the field.  

 

 

[GoBills808]

33 minutes ago, Sierra Foothills said:

 

Thanks for posting the video. I did a basic audit and found this:

 

Josh's Interceptions

Vs	Yards beyond LOS	Intended Receiver
NYJ	60	Harty
NYJ	41	Diggs
NYJ	15	Davis
WAS	40	Davis
JAX	50	Diggs
NYG	11	Sherfield
NE	18	Kincaid
TB	-2	Kincaid
CIN	19	Davis
DEN	22	Davis
DEN	16	Harty
NYJ	48	Kincaid
PHI	3	Diggs
KC	14	Sherfield
LAC	43	Diggs
NE	40	Kincaid
MIA	8	Davis
MIA	40	Davis
Ave	28.67 yards

 

INTs per intended receiver

Player	INTs	%	Target % reg season
Davis	6	33%	14%
Diggs	4	22%	27%
Kincaid	3	17%	16%
Sherfield	2	11%	4%
Harty	2	11%	4%
Knox	1	6%	6%
Shakir	0	0%	8%

 

 

 

I think it's really interesting that Josh's average depth of interception is almost 29 yards. On many of those plays it seems he was just chucking the ball downfield and not showing much discipline.

 

Also interesting how incommensurately high the INT% to target % is for Davis, Sherfield, and Harty.

 

Note also that Shakir was not the intended receiver for any of Josh's INTs.

 

It's not a lack of discipline that's responsible for that INT adot, at least not primarily imo

 

I can think of several that were deep on third down... basically punts

 

 

[Nihilarian]

15 hours ago, H2o said:

I think that the Diggs move is addition by subtraction. His diva mentality and sideshow antics being gone will breathe new life into everyone else on the offense. That being said, it remains to be seen whether our WR group can get it done in his stead. I'm not going into the overall WR discussion again because I've already made my thoughts known. Hopefully Knox can get back on track and clean up the drops. Hopefully Kincaid takes a big step forward. Hopefully this forces Josh to rely on his checkdown options at RB more in Cook, Davis, and Johnson. Brady LIVED off of taking what the defense gave him for 20 years. Can Shakir turn into our "Amon-Ra Lite" with a heavier workload? Josh could have his best season ever if he takes what the defense gives him at all times. If he insists on forcing the ball downfield then he could run into turnover problems and give all of the bobbleheads more reason to say it was Diggs who made him. Hopefully we see the full maturation of JA17 this season and consistently takes what the defense gives him. If he does, then he will be pretty much unstoppable and it will be his best ever. 

This!

 

I love what Joe Brady called against the Chiefs and Cowboys with the run game. My take is there will be a learning curve with the new faces. Although a two-TE offense with Josh under center with play action could be the best thing this offense has seen in a while. Knox, Kincade, and Shakir will do fine moving the chains, and that new RB Davis will help punch it in. Good things!

[Ga boy]

12 hours ago, 4merper4mer said:

This is a four page thread and you are early to post.  Having not read through yet my guess is that you’ll take heat for observing Josh was less than perfect last year.  Third rail stuff.

 

My take is that 2024 will be a transition year for Allen.  I’m more interested in the end than the beginning.  The Bills lost an absolute ton of serious leadership.  Diggs, Morse, even Davis on the O.  Poyer on the D.  We also lost Tre who was a definite leader but with more of a fun personality type.  The O leaders that are left: Josh, Dawkins, Brown, Knox…..they are all goofballs.  IMO we badly need Hyde for one more year.  2024 will require adaptability on Josh’s part in that he will have to be the adult in the room at times.  He has never had to be that.  We’ll see if he can do it.  Part of me wonders if Beane is playing 3D chess to force the issue by picking up malcontents like Claypool and MVS.  Too much comfort zone is bad for Josh.  I’d like to see him pissed off more frequently and Claypool will piss just about anyone off.  He is also expendable.

 

Allen has all the ability and on field desire that can be imagined.  Will he maximize his ability by making good decisions, preparing properly and leading?

 

My best guess is that the first half of the season is disappointing and bewildering.  I’m hopeful for the second half and even more hopeful for 2025 but he needs to get serious first.  Time to grow up.

Yes it’s time for Josh to be the alpha leader verbally.  I’m sure he’s tired of not getting the same respect as Mahoney, Lamar and Burrow.  It’s his turn to be MVP which means he must be the most verbal player.  

[Buffalo_Stampede]

It’s so hard to predict. We’re going to find out a lot about McDermott, Beane, and Allen over the next couple years.