What kind of season are you expecting from Josh Allen this year?

[muppy]

Solid BETTER is my vote.

 

The Super Bowl Championship is the prize and He wants it as badly as we do. Let's see if the offense under Coach Brady will allow he to shine ever brighter than even before.

 

 

[SoMAn]

How do we define or measure the season? 

Wins?

Passing Yards?

Superbowl?

Superbowl win?

Picking apart defenses with efficient plays?

Taking better care of the ball?

 

[Mat68]

13 minutes ago, PBF81 said:

 

The same as what though? 

His TD and yardage difference in averages under Dorsey v. Brady were pronounced.  

 

People, not necessarily you, seem to be taking Allen's entire season numbers while ignoring the quite significant drop in passing production under Brady into any account whatsoever.  

 

 

 

That will be both the key to his as well as the team's season.  

 

If he succeeds to a significant extent it'll end up being a monumental development for him.  

 

 

Every year his numbers dip in December.  ***** weather in Buffalo contributes.  He will have big games but the offense will not be dependent on it.  Having a balanced attack will do for him what it has for many great qb.  Less turnovers.  More sustained drives will off set the less explosive more risky plays.  Brees and Manning both went through similar dynamics.  He plays like he did in the playoffs the offense and Allen will be fine.  

3 minutes ago, SoMAn said:

How do we define or measure the season? 

Wins?

Passing Yards?

Superbowl?

Superbowl win?

Picking apart defenses with efficient plays?

Taking better care of the ball?

 

Passing yards are not a measure of success.  Who was the last super bowl winning qb to lead the league in yards? 

[MJS]

Allen's numbers were pretty terrible throwing to Gabe Davis and Stef Diggs last year, especially in the 2nd half of the season and the playoffs. Not having to force the ball to those two should be a benefit to Allen.

 

But, the turnover in the receiver room and the lack of top end talent might cause Allen to force the ball and play more hero ball at times. So, it might even out.

 

Luckily, Kincaid should take another step and establish himself as an elite TE.

[PBF81]

26 minutes ago, Mat68 said:

Every year his numbers dip in December.  ***** weather in Buffalo contributes.  He will have big games but the offense will not be dependent on it.  Having a balanced attack will do for him what it has for many great qb.  Less turnovers.  

 

That sound great in defense, but did you actually look at the data as to whether or not that was actually true/factual?  

Take a look when you have a few, you'll find that it's the polar opposite of what you just said there in seasons 2020 - 2022.  

 

 

[hondo in seattle]

So many variables...  New receivers.  A new-ish OC.  

 

The pessimist in me worries about Diggs' departure.  But even more, I worry about Brady.  Josh wasn't very productive under Brady at the end of last season.  Rushing yards went up but passing yards went down.  

 

The optimist buried within hopes, given a full offseason to prepare, Brady puts together a good offense.  And I hope some of the new receivers surprise their critics.  I'm also hoping Josh benefits from the best passpro of his career.   Also, Allen's passing efficiency last year was better when not throwing to someone with a surname that begins with "D."  There are no D-surname wideouts this season.   

 

When I voted, I decided to listen to my hopes rather than my fears but I'm going into this football season with a lot of questions and curiosity. 

 

Edited May 20 by hondo in seattle

[NoHuddleKelly12]

I say best because of the ability to spread the ball around to a committee of multiple good if not great options under Brady’s fully realized schematics, as opposed to say, force feeding Diggs to the detriment of the best option per play—also fully expect the Bills run game under Brady and with Cook to continue to improve and take pressure off, opening up more deep shots. I just have a great feeling about this year, national pundits be darned! 

[Mat68]

43 minutes ago, PBF81 said:

 

That sound great in defense, but did you actually look at the data as to whether or not that was actually true/factual?  

Take a look when you have a few, you'll find that it's the polar opposite of what you just said there in seasons 2020 - 2022.  

 

 

Game log from each season 23,22,21 are very similar from last week of November to end of season.  Some clunkers some average some monsters.  Each three season. I dont know what you are using or looking at…

[Lfod]

4 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

Certainly better than last year. I think last year was Josh's worst since he broke out. And I am not talking about the offense. I am talking about Josh. He was less consistent with his fundamentals and his decision making was more erratic. Not that he was terrible compared to his peers. He still played like a top half dozen QB. I don't think he was top 2 or 3 in 2023 though.

 

I am not saying he will have a career year but I don't discount it. If the weapons around him step up I could see a big bounce back.

This is about or around about what I was thinking. I was thinking he took a break on whatever he was doing before the season that had him playing s tier. 

Edited May 20 by Lfod

[RobbRiddick]

If Mahomes doesn't get MVP which I think is a good chance now that he has better weapons, then I expect Josh to potentially get his first.

 

The talk all offseason has been and will be centred around how the Bills have taken a step back without davis and Diggs. If Allen has a great year people will really open their eyes.

 

Without having to feel like he must target Diggs so many times a game to appease him he'll spread the ball around more. Plus I think Brady will incorporate a lot of screens and dump offs to the RBs this season, which will kick up Allen's completion percentage,  reduce ints and result in more YAC plays

[NewEra]

About the same.  He’ll probably have lesser passing stats and less rushing yards, but overall, will be the same player we’ve seen for the last 3 seasons.

[Pine Barrens Mafia]

worst since his early years at least as far as passing statistics go

 

the cupboard is bare and McDermott wants to run and play complementary football

 

[Bills aPHILLYate]

I was torn between better and best of career but went with the latter.

I think his rushing stats will take a dip but I think he will be highly efficient passing and challenge career highs in yds/%/tds

The WR core as it stands I think is arguably the most versatile group he'll play with. 

He operates best when spreading targets out and he becomes exponentially more dangerous when you don't expect the heroics as opposed to relying on them. 

 

I'll say: 4500yds passing, 39tds, 11int, 67comp%, 450yds rushing, 8tds 

[Shaw66]

I said best of his career.  Classic Shaw66 homerism.  Here's why:

 

1.  Josh is still learning.   The reality of pro sports is that the athletes keep improving until their bodies begin to fail them.  For running backs and some receivers, that comes pretty early, often before they're 30.  For QBs, they can last until their late 30s without serious decline in their abilities.   For Josh, he will lose his running ability before then, but the important part of QB growth is mental.  Josh is at peak physical performance, and he's still climbing the learning curve, so he will be a better QB in 2024 than in any previous seasons.  

 

2.  Brady's offense is going to be good, and well suited to Josh and his receivers.   How do I know that?   Because Beane and McDermott are trying to build a winner, they got to see Brady in a tryout half-season, have gotten to know how he thinks about the game and what kind of attack he envisions.  McBeane have had an opportunity to test what Beane offers, and they obviously concluded that Brady can do the job.   They might be wrong, of course - they thought Dorsey could do it, too, but the extended tryout means they are much more likely to have gotten it right this time.  

 

3.  The receiving room is matched to the offense that Brady wants to run.   How do I know that?   Because the receiving room has been substantially reshaped, and it must have been reshaped in a way that Brady wanted.   There would be no point in trying out Brady at OC, deciding he could do the job, and then dumping Diggs and Davis and acquiring the guys they did.  

 

4.  The offensive line looks set (assuming McGovern or VPG handles the center position), so both pass pro and the running game should be fine.  

 

If it's a truly balanced attack, Allen may not have career passing stats, but if I'm correct, he'll run the offense even better than last season, which I though was a break-out year for him as a field general.  

 

This is going to be a good offense, and it all starts with Josh. 

 

 

[appoo]

5 hours ago, Alphadawg7 said:

Welcome to the first ever "Question of the day" thread proposed by @BuffaloBill!  It's an honor to kick this off for TSW and thought there was no better place to start than a question about our best and most important player, Josh Allen.  

 

There has been a lot of discussion this offseason about the WR position, but there are more changes around Josh and this offense than just who the receivers are (or aren't).  Josh will also have a new center for the first time in a long time, and there is a chance it could be a rookie in SVPG and Joe Brady is going to now truly install his own offense here rather than manage it around Dorseys when he took over last year.  

 

So now that we have a pretty good idea on personnel between draft and signings, do you think Allen will be better, worse, or about the same as he has been the past 2 seasons?  

I’m going on record - this is gonna be the best offense of Allen’s career to date.  Versatility in the WRs. Solid OLine. An OC who loves the deeper stuff, a legit game breaker at RB…it’s all there 

[The Jokeman]

Let's not forget Josh set/tied a NFL record for rushing TDs by a QB last season with 15. Odds are he won't match that, now he might get some of those back with passes to a X guy like Coleman or a taller/better option in Hollins. Yet he might see a guy like Ray Davis steal a bunch of them too. In terms of passing, I think we might see a down turn in Interceptions as expect we're going to see more short/easy throws. Maybe even a few screens to Samuel. Which may help Josh's completion percentage. Yet think he's still good for 3600 yards and 25-30 TDs passing and 300 rushing yards 5-9 rushing TDs. So perhaps a small step back from last year but still amongst the Top 5 QBs in yards and total TDs. 

[boater]

I reserve judgement until after training camp. I want to see how all the new faces in the WR room perform in August.

 

Making forecasts now with what little we know of these WR is folly.

[papazoid]

mvp

[PBF81]

1 hour ago, Mat68 said:

Game log from each season 23,22,21 are very similar from last week of November to end of season.  Some clunkers some average some monsters.  Each three season. I dont know what you are using or looking at…

 

Not true.  

 

To start you said December, so let's keep it to that.  (and January)  

 

Dec 2023: 

1,092 Yards, 5 TDs, 5 INTs, 81.8 Rating 

 

Dec 2022:  

1,100 Yards, 12 TDs, 3 INTs, 100.3 Rating 

 

Dec 2021:  

1,336 Yards 11 TDs, 5 INTs, 80.0 Rating 

 

Dec 2020:  

1,516 Yards, 15 TDs, 2 INTs, 117.5 Rating 

 

The average person would likely see a significant difference between last season's December games and those of the other three seasons.  His average TDs/game alone is 2.5 times greater in the past three seasons.   I suppose the definition of similar can be argued.  

 

This past season, the Dallas game was largely D and rushing that did the lifting there.  His KC game was among his worst on the season and was easily his worst passing game ever against KC.  His game vs. the Chargers was not good, particularly considering how terrible the Charger D was.  His game against NE was his worst game on the season.  His season-ender against Miami was also one of his worse games vs. Miami and he had some absolutely horrible throws in the red zone.  Our Brady O scored only 14 points and needed that Harty PR-TD to win it.  

 

 

[DeepPass]

Josh has to have a GREAT season this year.  Audibles, check downs, reading the defense etc.  He can pass but he has to lead the offense.