What kind of season are you expecting from Josh Allen this year?

[Alphadawg7]

Welcome to the first ever "Question of the day" thread proposed by @BuffaloBill!  It's an honor to kick this off for TSW and thought there was no better place to start than a question about our best and most important player, Josh Allen.  

 

There has been a lot of discussion this offseason about the WR position, but there are more changes around Josh and this offense than just who the receivers are (or aren't).  Josh will also have a new center for the first time in a long time, and there is a chance it could be a rookie in SVPG and Joe Brady is going to now truly install his own offense here rather than manage it around Dorseys when he took over last year.  

 

So now that we have a pretty good idea on personnel between draft and signings, do you think Allen will be better, worse, or about the same as he has been the past 2 seasons?  

Edited May 22 by Alphadawg7

[KingBoots8]

Nothing new for the guy: Over 4,000 yards, 30+ TDs passing, Maybe 400-600 rushing, add another 8-10 TDs. Interceptions I expect to go down, however it may start not looking that way (post-Diggs divorce causing some adjustments).

 

Potential MVP but I think once Keon gets rolling maybe next year that’s more likely. Josh has been elevating talent around him, and I don’t expect that to stop.

[GunnerBill]

Certainly better than last year. I think last year was Josh's worst since he broke out. And I am not talking about the offense. I am talking about Josh. He was less consistent with his fundamentals and his decision making was more erratic. Not that he was terrible compared to his peers. He still played like a top half dozen QB. I don't think he was top 2 or 3 in 2023 though.

 

I am not saying he will have a career year but I don't discount it. If the weapons around him step up I could see a big bounce back.

[Alphadawg7]

Personally, I think Josh is going to be better this year than he was the last 2 years and might be in line for the best season of his career.  I think the addition by subtraction philosophy is in play here with Diggs and Davis out, who were very inefficient targets for Allen in this offense between Diggs being a target hog and Davis just being a limited player who was an unreliable target.  

 

Not only do I like our group of weapons for Josh, I think our run game will be even better between Brady having his full stamp on the offense now and the addition of Davis to compliment Cook who I think is going to be a very good player for us.  I also think Brady having the ability to put his offense in now is really going to help Josh spread the ball around more and scheme guys open a lot more to really take advantage of what the defense gives him.

 

I think the result will be a more efficient, less turnover prone, Josh Allen and we will see him possibly put up his best season this year.  

[BuffaloBillyG]

Statistically, I believe Josh will be Josh year in and year out. But there are things in play that could alter his production a bit. 

 

- The subtraction of Gabe Davis. No secret that for multiple reasons, Allen has had a much higher INT% when targeting him. Plus the numerous time we saw last year that they just were not on the same page. 

 

- The addition of Joe Brady. There are a lot of things we still don't know about Brady. But Brady did seem to simplify things quite a bit in limited time last year. I do think that Allen may end up with some fewer passes this season. That's not necessarily a bad thing.

 

- I expect the additions of Coleman and Davis in the draft along with a year 2 Kincaid and possibly a healthy Knox will hopefully reduce the importance of Allen in the red zone running the ball. I don't see him even near the amount of TDs rushing he had last year.

 

- Decision making. This is where Brady is another factor. Just the different ways Josh goes through his progressions and where his eyes are at the start of a play. Add in the fact he should be able to cycle through faster without giving an extra second to look at Diggs before moving on. 

 

I'm thinking by the end of the year he has roughly the same passing numbers with reduced rushing output. But I believe the story will be how the "turnover machine" cut his INTs in half. 

[2003Contenders]

I too am optimistic that Josh will have the best season of his career -- even if it does not mean the most passing yards, etc. of his career.

 

I really do feel like under Dorsey last season, Josh was pressing -- and seemed much more comfortable after the switch to Brady in Week 11. Who can forget Josh exclaiming, "I'm f***ing back!" in that first game with Brady as OC against the Jets.

 

I look at his production during those last 7 weeks, where he passed for 139/229, 1706 yards, 10 TDs, and 7 INTs. He also rushed 63 times for 278 yards and 8 TDs. Over a full season that amounts to 338/556, 4143 yards, 24 TDs, and 17 INTs (with 153 rushing attempts for 675 yards and 19 TDs). Those are still very elite numbers -- even if there is almost certainly going to be a down-tick in the rushing TD department.

 

I think a full off-season where Brady has the opportunity to instill "his" offense will help. I know in their heart-of-hearts McD (and probably Brady too) would love to win via a ground attack like they did against the Cowboys, where Josh only passed for less than 100 yards -- but that is nirvana and not week-to-week reality. As I already mentioned, Brady also seemed more willing than Dorsey to "let Josh be Josh", so I do expect continued (but hopefully prudent) use of Josh in the running game. And, for all of our concerns about the quality of the players in the WR room, I will say that the guys who are present do have a propensity for CATCHING the ball, which can't be said about Diggs and Davis during the late stretch last year.

 

I also do not think we can overestimate how much better things will be on the field/sidelines/locker room without Diggs' larger-than-life presence. Diggs certainly deserves a good amount of credit for Josh's emergence as an elite QB when Diggs arrived back in 2020. But his antics grew tiresome, and I believe played a significant role in Josh's down demeanor last season.

[Process]

Fanduel has his passing yards line at 3,625.5 which is shocking to me. 

 

I think Josh will be better and have a great year. I think people forget how bad he and the entire offense were for a huge stretch of last season. 

[Gregg]

Statistically I have no idea. With a revamped receiving corps, it's anybody guess. I am sure Josh will have a good season simply because he is one of the most talented QB's in the league but with all the new faces on offense I don't know if his stats will be better or worse. 

[wjag]

I'm going with best of his career.  Second year in Brady offense.  Emergence of Cook and Dalton.  Plenty of big receivers to spread the ball around too.  And his number one distraction is playing north of the Rio Grande.  I really believe this is the year we see Josh mature into THE team leader.

[julian]

4500-5000 total yds 

40+ total TDs

8+ INTs 

MVP consideration 

lead the league in wow plays AGAIN

 

 This MFer is rewriting the record books before our very eyes and being an absolute cyborg weekly all while being the current Ironman at QB.

[MikePJ76]

probably like 5 passing touchdowns and 1 rushing touchdown and maybe like 1500 yards passing.  35 interceptions.

 

I just don't see how he can function without stephon diggs holding his hand and teaching him nfl football.  

 

he has no one to throw the ball to and the worst group of wr since maybe the 1921 Decatur Staleys.

 

this is what it is like reading this board sometimes.

[Mat68]

I think his yards and TDs are relatively the same.  His ints are cut by half and the national perception around him changes. 

[Ethan in Cleveland]

I voted better barring injury.

Yards and TDs should be about the same maybe a little down. I chose better because I think his INT total will fall from career high 18 back to a respectable 12.

[H2o]

I think that the Diggs move is addition by subtraction. His diva mentality and sideshow antics being gone will breathe new life into everyone else on the offense. That being said, it remains to be seen whether our WR group can get it done in his stead. I'm not going into the overall WR discussion again because I've already made my thoughts known. Hopefully Knox can get back on track and clean up the drops. Hopefully Kincaid takes a big step forward. Hopefully this forces Josh to rely on his checkdown options at RB more in Cook, Davis, and Johnson. Brady LIVED off of taking what the defense gave him for 20 years. Can Shakir turn into our "Amon-Ra Lite" with a heavier workload? Josh could have his best season ever if he takes what the defense gives him at all times. If he insists on forcing the ball downfield then he could run into turnover problems and give all of the bobbleheads more reason to say it was Diggs who made him. Hopefully we see the full maturation of JA17 this season and consistently takes what the defense gives him. If he does, then he will be pretty much unstoppable and it will be his best ever. 

[Chandler#81]

I went with ‘about the same’ which seems disingenuous. “About the same” means continued progression as the greatest ever Buffalo Bill and ever a chance to bring the Lombardi Trophy to WNY. He has stated many times this is singularly why he plays the game and we can’t ask for more. Sans injury, if any one player ever can do it, Josh Allen can!

 

The Enigma.

[Dr. K]

I think he will commit fewer turnovers. It's hard to say whether he'll have a significant drop in passing yards or TDs. I suspect that any reduction in passing will be made up for by an increase in team rushing and time of possession. I don't expect him to run more than he has in the past. 

 

All this depends of course on Allen staying healthy. That's always the thing that I worry about the most.

 

Overall I expect the offense, once they get used to the new system and play calling, to function well. A lot of the team's success will depend if they can make up for the big changes on defense--if they have better injury luck they should hold their own. 

Edited May 20 by Dr. K

[loyal2dagame]

Josh will put up scortched earth numbers to show it was him and not Diggs. 

We've seen this guy with a chip on his shoulder, and it doesn't go well for opposing teams. 

Edited May 20 by loyal2dagame

[PBF81]

1 hour ago, BuffaloBillyG said:

- The subtraction of Gabe Davis. No secret that for multiple reasons, Allen has had a much higher INT% when targeting him. Plus the numerous time we saw last year that they just were not on the same page. 

 

That part of your post is an interesting thing.  That's actually true (6 last season, of 18), but is it actually Davis' fault?  I know it's a mini-narrative.  Davis wasn't well liked, but he will be missed from a performance perspective.  

 

Anyway, I looked at last season's INTs from Allen.  

 

The first two were thrown into double-coverage.  The third (Cin) was sorely underthrown by Allen otherwise it's a good 25-yard gain.  The fourth was a literal clothes-line into heavy coverage on 3rd-n-4.  That play should have gone to Murray in the right flat, not sure he'd have gotten the first, but he was the only WR open.  And if that's one of Brady's 3rd-n-4 plays, .... LOL & SMH.   The fifth and sixth were @ Miami and both were off of Allen's back foot and absolutely atrocious passes.  The first, if it's a good throw it's another TD to Davis.  

 

Point being that they weren't really Davis' fault except for maybe one, they were all on Allen and .  If we want to blame Allen for "always looking deep first," fine, but that's not likely to change quickly.  It certainly didn't under Brady's games last season.  It's pretty difficult to envision anyone putting up Davis' deep numbers and TDs of who's on the roster  

 

Here's the video evidence;  

 

 

 

It's pretty simple, this short/high-percentage game simply isn't Allen's forte`.  It's not.  But that's what they were trying to force him to do under Brady.  

 

For a prediction this season, and it depends upon what the definition of "what kind of season," since many reduce it to Ws/Ls, but if we're talking passing metrics, I'll lean towards Allens' regular season production under Brady.  If we take those stats and extrapolate them out for 17 games we get: 

 

4,148 Yards

24 TDs 

17 INTs 

60.7% Compl. % 

85.5 Rating 

 

The yardage, TD, INT, and Compl. % totals are fair given the circumstances.  I'd bump up the rating slightly, maybe into the low 90s, but well into average range for QBs.  Many are saying that his numbers will get better as Brady installs his game, but Allen's numbers last season under Brady were the best in his first two games under Brady where he had as many passing TDs in those two games as he did in the last five games.  

 

In the last five games Allen averaged 1 TD/game, 218 YPG, 1 INT/game, had an 81.8 rating, which is horrible, across the board.  

 

The offense is going to reflect McD's complimentary football definition.  That much we know.  Who knows, perhaps as was the case with Peterman McD throws in the towel to fan and media pressure and changes that.  Unfortunately for anyone hoping for big passing numbers, that's not consistent with that philosophy argue as one may to the contrary.  

 

One thing that Allen has always struggled with in both college as well as the NFL is checking down and hitting his more open and/or higher-percentage typically shorter options.  His metrics this season are going to be incredibly dependent upon his ability to improve there coupled with Brady's offensive game-planning/scheming.  

 

About the only sure thing is that it's not an odds-on prediction that Allen's metrics are among his best as his seasons have gone.  Sure, it could happen, but it's not at all likely.  

 

 

[boyst]

I think he will be more conservative with his placement. I don't think he will look to place the ball downfield like he has before. His stats will not be as jaw dropping as before and people will probably wonder what is wrong with him but i expect him to just play smarter this year.

[PBF81]

54 minutes ago, Mat68 said:

I think his yards and TDs are relatively the same.  His ints are cut by half and the national perception around him changes. 

 

The same as what though? 

His TD and yardage difference in averages under Dorsey v. Brady were pronounced.  

 

People, not necessarily you, seem to be taking Allen's entire season numbers while ignoring the quite significant drop in passing production under Brady into any account whatsoever.  

 

 

Just now, boyst said:

I think he will be more conservative with his placement. I don't think he will look to place the ball downfield like he has before. His stats will not be as jaw dropping as before and people will probably wonder what is wrong with him but i expect him to just play smarter this year.

 

That will be both the key to his as well as the team's season.  

 

If he succeeds to a significant extent it'll end up being a monumental development for him.