Schedule "Gauntlet" A Reality As Long As Bills Win Division

[jwhit34]

It seems that many have bemoaned the brutal stretches of the Bills' schedule each of the past few years. It is inevitable for division winners based on the way the schedule is put together, particularly now with the addition of the 17th game. Here is the schedule formula for an AFC division winner:

 

6 games - 2 games each vs. the other teams in your division

4 games - 1 game each vs. one of the other AFC divisions

2 games - 1 game each vs. the other AFC division winners

4 games - 1 game each vs. one of the NFC divisions

1 game    - Vs. one of the other NFC division winners

 

So, each team that wins their division play 5 of the other 7 division winners, and will play two, 2nd place teams (the games against the entire AFC and NFC divisions). That is potentially 7 playoff teams. They will only play 4 games outside of the division games vs. 3rd or 4th place teams. 

 

If you only have 4 games a year vs. non-division opponents that finished in 3rd or 4th place teams, which is just under 1/4 of your games, it is impossible to avoid really difficult stretches of games. 

 

And it is the same for all division winners, not just the Bills:

• Ravens start the season: Chiefs, Raiders, Cowboys, Bills, Bengals. 
• Texans starting 11/10: Detroit, Dallas, Tennessee, Jacksonville, MIami, KC, Baltimore

 

It's just how the schedule works. 

 

[PromoTheRobot]

It's simple. Don't beat yourselves.

[What a Tuel]

[Bleeding Bills Blue]

Just now, jwhit34 said:

It seems that many have bemoaned the brutal stretches of the Bills' schedule each of the past few years. It is inevitable for division winners based on the way the schedule is put together, particularly now with the addition of the 17th game. Here is the schedule formula for an AFC division winner:

 

6 games - 2 games each vs. the other teams in your division

4 games - 1 game each vs. one of the other AFC divisions

2 games - 1 game each vs. the other AFC division winners

4 games - 1 game each vs. one of the NFC divisions

1 game    - Vs. one of the other NFC division winners

 

So, each team that wins their division play 5 of the other 7 division winners, and will play two, 2nd place teams (the games against the entire AFC and NFC divisions). That is potentially 7 playoff teams. They will only play 4 games outside of the division games vs. 3rd or 4th place teams. 

 

If you only have 4 games a year vs. non-division opponents that finished in 3rd or 4th place teams, which is just under 1/4 of your games, it is impossible to avoid really difficult stretches of games. 

 

And it is the same for all division winners, not just the Bills:

• Ravens start the season: Chiefs, Raiders, Cowboys, Bills, Bengals. 
• Texans starting 11/10: Detroit, Dallas, Tennessee, Jacksonville, MIami, KC, Baltimore

 

It's just how the schedule works. 

 

 

It's partly why I'm predicting Houston to miss the playoffs, and why my Jax prediction last year was correct.  Houston goes from uncommon opponents of - Jets, Broncos, Cardinals - to KC, Baltimore, Dallas.  Jax had KC, Buffalo, SF last year and went 1-2 in those games and missed the playoffs by a single game.  

[What a Tuel]

I posted the division winners for last 15 years to illustrate that very few teams hold their division consistently year after year. Only 2-3 teams have done it recently (Bills, Chiefs, maybe Bucs?).

 

Feel like that means that the division winner from year prior is not necessarily the best team in that division for the upcoming year.

[Big Turk]

Nobody knows who is going to actually be good this year and who will take a step back...worrying about the schedule at this time of the year is pointless but every year people waste their time doing it.

[Captain Hindsight]

10 minutes ago, Bleeding Bills Blue said:

 

It's partly why I'm predicting Houston to miss the playoffs, and why my Jax prediction last year was correct.  Houston goes from uncommon opponents of - Jets, Broncos, Cardinals - to KC, Baltimore, Dallas.  Jax had KC, Buffalo, SF last year and went 1-2 in those games and missed the playoffs by a single game.  

I've seen Houston as a SB contender and that is laughable IMO. They wayyyyyy overachieved last season and I expect them to struggle this year 

[BufBills83]

A lot can change from now until the season starts, but just looking at the opponents, how they did last year and how they improved in the offseason, and how this Bills team has changed, I don't see how we don't win 10 - 11 games and get a wildcard.  Probably win the division.

 

I would say we go 5-1 in the division, beating Miami and New England twice and going 1-1 with the Jets.  4-2 at worst.

 

I would say Arizona, Tennessee, Colts are close to locks for wins.  Thats 7-8 wins.

 

The Jaguars, Seahawks, Rams and Texans games are probably better than 50/50 for a win.  We'll be favored against Jax (home Monday night), prob Seattle and the Houston and LA games is prob a close line.   If we split these 4 games, we're at 9-10 wins.

 

The hardest games are Balt, KC, SF, and Det.  Even going 1-3 in these games gets us to 10 wins, 2 gets us to 11.  KC and SF are at home, and SF is after a bye.

 

I can't see us not winning 10 and making the playoffs.

[Fleezoid]

27 minutes ago, PromoTheRobot said:

It's simple. Don't beat yourselves.

 

.....or you'll go blind.

[Big Turk]

16 minutes ago, Captain Hindsight said:

I've seen Houston as a SB contender and that is laughable IMO. They wayyyyyy overachieved last season and I expect them to struggle this year 

 

Most time QBs in their 2nd season find it isn't as easy as it was in their rookie year when DC's have the entire offseason to prepare and watch a full year's worth of NFL games to pick apart every flaw you have and devise gameplans against them.

Edited May 17 by Big Turk

[Bleeding Bills Blue]

1 minute ago, Captain Hindsight said:

I've seen Houston as a SB contender and that is laughable IMO. They wayyyyyy overachieved last season and I expect them to struggle this year 

 

Same thing happened to the jaguars last year.  I think both offense and defense over achieved for Houston last season.

 

Lots of good players, but they're very young across the board.  Diggs will be a big upgrade over Woods and Noah Brown.  Lots to like about what else they did with trades and free agency, and I think they have a solid coach.  

 

At the same time... Jaguars are not far off from them, Indy was right there with a backup QB last year, and Tennessee has had a pretty big roster makeover (Ridley, Pollard, Cushenberry, Boyd, Murray, Awuzie, Sneed).  

[ToGoGo]

19 minutes ago, Big Turk said:

 

Most time QBs in their 2nd season find it isn't as easy as it was in their rookie year when DC's have the entire offseason to prepare and watch a full year's worth of NFL games to pick apart every flaw you have and devise gameplans against them.

Stroud will be a good one. But yes, we could see a sophomore slump. But then again, he got stronger as the season went on last year. 

[PromoTheRobot]

29 minutes ago, Fleezoid said:

 

.....or you'll go blind.

 

That's an old wives tale. I only have to shave my palm every other month.

[Bleeding Bills Blue]

2 minutes ago, Big Turk said:

 

Most time QBs in their 2nd season find it isn't as easy as it was in their rookie year when DC's have the entire offseason to prepare and watch a full year's worth of NFL games to pick apart every flaw you have and devise gameplans against them.

 

They have a strong offensive line that helps.  He also had a drop rate lower than Allen has ever had in his career.  

 

He also has some pretty massive home/away, and indoor/outdoor splits.  Home and away is pretty normal, but as we've seen with Tua and the dolphins... crowd noise can disrupt a lot of timing on your offense.  As for weather conditions - October games @ NE, GB, NYJ should be challenging.  Not to mention KC on the road in December.  

 

In 5 games played outdoors regardless of condition:

2-3 record, 60.63% completions for 1109 yards, 3 TDs and 1 INT.  Losses were to Baltimore, Carolina, and NYJ.  Carolina and NYJ were some pretty pitiful passing lines.  Anyway... 4 dollars a pound 🙂 

[Gregg]

Did the Texans get a new helmet. Scroll to week 5 and the Texans already have their uniforms that they will wear vs Buffalo up. But the helmet has a light blue "H". Its the Oilers colors.

 

https://www.gridiron-uniforms.com/GUD/controller/controller.php?action=teams-season&team_id=BUF&year=2024

[letsgoteam]

Its not who you play in the NFL, it's when you play them!

[GunnerBill]

54 minutes ago, Bleeding Bills Blue said:

 

Same thing happened to the jaguars last year.  I think both offense and defense over achieved for Houston last season.

 

Lots of good players, but they're very young across the board.  Diggs will be a big upgrade over Woods and Noah Brown.  Lots to like about what else they did with trades and free agency, and I think they have a solid coach.  

 

At the same time... Jaguars are not far off from them, Indy was right there with a backup QB last year, and Tennessee has had a pretty big roster makeover (Ridley, Pollard, Cushenberry, Boyd, Murray, Awuzie, Sneed).  

 

I think Houston are made of stronger stuff than Jax were though. I know Pederson has won a Superbowl but I'd take Demeco Ryans over him as well. I think it is early for them as Superbowl contenders but they have a 2020 Bills feel to me. I could see them getting to an AFCCG if the playoffs fall right for them and then getting blown out by one of the big experienced teams. 

[Bleeding Bills Blue]

6 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

I think Houston are made of stronger stuff than Jax were though. I know Pederson has won a Superbowl but I'd take Demeco Ryans over him as well. I think it is early for them as Superbowl contenders but they have a 2020 Bills feel to me. I could see them getting to an AFCCG if the playoffs fall right for them and then getting blown out by one of the big experienced teams. 

 

Yeah I think they're a good young team.  Just a more competitive division than people are letting on, and there are some warning signs.  Point differential is one, the home/away/indoor/outdoor splits, and turnover luck is probably the big one.  

[GunnerBill]

12 minutes ago, Bleeding Bills Blue said:

 

Yeah I think they're a good young team.  Just a more competitive division than people are letting on, and there are some warning signs.  Point differential is one, the home/away/indoor/outdoor splits, and turnover luck is probably the big one.  

 

Definitely think they need to be strong at home. I don't think they are yet a team that can go on the road and beat good sides consistently. But when I look at their premium positions: QB, tick; LT, tick; DE, x2 tick; CB1, tick. Have they got a true #1 WR? Depends if Stef can bounce back, but even if not Collins, Diggs, Dell is like having three #2s. That is what gives me confidence in them. I told people before last season they'd be good when people had them drafting top 3 again. They have good players in the premium spots.

[FireChans]

Bills will win the division again. With McD and a healthy Josh, it’s almost a certainty.

2 hours ago, What a Tuel said:

I posted the division winners for last 15 years to illustrate that very few teams hold their division consistently year after year. Only 2-3 teams have done it recently (Bills, Chiefs, maybe Bucs?).

 

Feel like that means that the division winner from year prior is not necessarily the best team in that division for the upcoming year.

Best QB by far in the division = winning the division most of the time.