THE ROCKPILE REVIEW - Receivers are a Dime a Dozen

[TBBills Fan]

4 hours ago, Shaw66 said:

6 feet, 195 pounds, 4.5 40.  What physical talent does he have that makes him elite?   

 

He's elite because of his stats.   

 

How much of his stats is dependent on his physical abilities, and how much of it is dependent on the match of his particular athletic abilities with (1) a star offensive coordinator, (2) a solid, accurate veteran QB, (3) a high-performing tight end?   

 

No one projected St. Brown as a league-leading receiver. 

Ok. 

 

Well, he is elite because of his play and results.  Ever watch a Detroit game. He is clutch and consistent. 

 

Where he was projected?  Hell he was the 17th receiver drafted. And that was part of his motivation. 

 

Are you trying to say projections and measurable pre draft don't tell the entire story as it is not and never will be 100% correct?  If so, I agree. We see it all the time where some of the best of the best are drafted after many other players who end up failing or not doing as well.

 

Yes of course the surroundings matter. It all matters.  Mindset, ability, team mates, coaches, scheme etc

 

I think in our case, we can be successful with the group Beane has put together.  We have Josh.  Give Josh solid interchangeable weapons, with high football IQ, with the Bills DNA of football being third first love, I think that can be very successful. 

 

I also think addition by subtraction can and does happen in life. I believe that we are going to surprise a lot of people.  I mean, the locker room must have been shot. Your go to guy taking himself out, pouting and God knows what else behind the scenes....that kind of atmosphere can be detrimental to success. 

 

With that said, the WR is not going the way of the RB, because of the game and where it is and where it is going.  I think the athletes are so good, that Intangibles not often discussed can make a difference between bust and HOF worthy. 

 

I think we are the same place when it comes to our WR corps, but we took different roads to get to that belief.

 

WRs are not going to become a dime a dozen. There will be saturation, like with so many RBs, and that means more busts, but all these guys regardless of measurable are amazing young athletes, the question becomes which ones do the work and end up in the right place to blossom. Measurables and what they do well matter in the sense of scheme fit. 

 

 

[JakeFrommStateFarm]

7 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

The Bills receiver room doesn't look like this because the Bills have cottoned on to some league wide trend. It looks like this because they have criminally under prioritised the drafting of wide receivers. Since Beane has been GM only Tampa Bay (who have had Evans and Godwin the whole time) have prioritised the position less in the draft. 31st out of 32 teams. That is why our WR room now is a rookie, a decent slot guy who came on last year and other people's cast offs. 

Edited May 17 by JakeFrommStateFarm

[Magox]

You know what the Chiefs and Patriots, arguably the two most dominant football dynasties of the 2000's have had in common?   They won most of their championships without top tier WR's.   

 

The Patriots best wideouts in their Superbowl dynasty wins was probably Julian Edelman.  What followed him was very meh, but they did have a great tight end in Gronk.

 

The Chiefs, aside from the one year they had Tyreek, the past two Super bowls was JuJu Smith and a rookie Rasheed Rice.   They also have had a not too shabby TE in Kelce.

 

This clearly proves that it's not necessary to have dominant receivers to win.  You just need smart, heady guys who can make catches and to have a bigtime elite QB who can make the right decisions when it counts most.   

[LeGOATski]

Just now, Magox said:

You know what the Chiefs and Patriots, arguably the two most dominant football dynasties of the 2000's have had in common?   They won most of their championships without top tier WR's.   

 

The Patriots best wideouts in their Superbowl dynasty wins was probably Julian Edelman.  What followed him was very meh, but they did have a great tight end in Gronk.

 

The Chiefs, aside from the one year they had Tyreek, the past two Super bowls was JuJu Smith and a rookie Rasheed Rice.   They also have had a not too shabby TE in Kelce.

 

This clearly proves that it's not necessary to have dominant receivers to win.  You just need smart, heady guys who can make catches and to have a bigtime elite QB who can make the right decisions when it counts most.   

Clearly you need to have the best TEs in history.

[NastyNateSoldiers]

On 5/15/2024 at 11:28 PM, Shaw66 said:

Bills fans have spent the first five months of 2024 talking about receivers: Whom the Bills have and whom they should get.  The longer I’ve listened to that discussion, the more I’ve come to the conclusion that fans haven’t really internalized what’s happening in pro football.

 

In short, I think that receivers are following in the footsteps of their cousins, the running backs.  Fans, and the New York Giants, were late to realize that in terms of team performance, there isn’t much difference between having a great running back and having a really good one.  And you almost always can find a really good one.  There’s always a Singletary, a Cook, a Pacheco, or someone else.  In earlier eras, if you had a Jim Brown or an Earl Campbell or a Barry Sanders, you were a contender.   Not now.  Now, you can have a Derrick Henry and, well, you have some great highlights, but highlights don’t get it done any more. 

 

Why did that happen to running backs?  Two reasons:  First, young players keep closing the gap between what the great players can do and what the next level of really good players can do.  They learn the moves of the great players, and they condition themselves to be nearly as strong and as powerful.  Second, the defenses have matured – the players are bigger, stronger, faster, so that a guy with Jim-Brown talent now finds a defense full of big, strong, fast defenders, and the coaches have schemed their defenses in ways that allow their big, strong, fast defenders to close gaps and gang tackle in ways that just weren’t done in earlier generations.  Maybe some 250-pound guy who runs like LaDainian Tomlinson will come along, but that’s unlikely.

 

(As an aside, the same thing is happening in the NBA.   In less than ten years, the league has filled up with guys who shoot threes like Steph Curry, guys who are bigger, stronger, and quicker than Steph.  And the defenses have gotten smarter.  The Warriors of five years ago would be good today, but not dominant in the way they were.

 

(And, by the way, there’s a whole generation of pro golfers who have caught up to the greatness of the early Tiger Woods.  They don’t stand out like Tiger because, well, there are a lot of them.)

 

And now we see it happening to receivers.  Again, the difference between truly great and very good has gotten smaller, the number of very good receivers has increased.  It’s happened for the same reasons that it happened to running backs.  Receivers have gotten about as big and fast as they are going to get.  The difference in speed between a 4.3 guy and a 4.4 or even 4.5 guy just isn’t very important – 4.5 is plenty fast enough.  Kids in high school practice catching balls one-handed, practice tucking the ball away after the catch, etc.   By the time receivers have gotten out of college, a lot of them have speed, route-running technique, and catching skills that rival what some of the best NFL players had ten years ago.  In other words, it’s become almost impossible to get better physically in a way that makes any one receiver a dominant player. 

 

In addition to the younger receivers closing the talent gap, the defenders and the defenses they run have improved, too, for the express purpose of stopping the physically dominant receivers.  If you want to win in the NFL, you simply cannot let one player get 150+ yards against you, rushing or receiving, so you create defenses to stop them.  You shadow running backs, you double cover receivers, and then you develop nuanced variations off your defenses to slow down the opponent’s star player.  Quickly, other teams adopt your ideas.   The result is that even the very best running backs and receivers are not stringing 150-yard games, back to back to back, all season long.  Yes, every once in a while a Tyreek Hill comes along, a physical freak, and he does string great games for a while, but it’s just a matter of time before teams adjust. 

 

What about all the great young receivers out there?   Well, I think there’s an important distinction to be made between great receivers and great production.  A guy like Julian Edelman was not a great receiver, in the classic Hall of Fame sense.  He had great production because of the circumstances he was in, and because he was the right guy to take advantage of those circumstanes.  Cooper Kupp is another.  Amon-Ra St. Brown is another.  These guys are all over the league, guys with excellent speed, very good ball skills, and brains.  They have great production, but it isn’t so much that they create the production – they just fit the scheme and get production because they have the skill to take advantage of the opportunities that their offenses create. 

 

I’m not saying those guys aren’t good football players.   What I’m saying is that they are the Pachecos and Cooks and Singletarys of the receiving world.  What I’m saying is that teams are discovering that the physical difference between OBJ and St. Brown does not translate into an important difference in production on the field, just like the difference between Saquon Barkley and Pacheco. 

 

What about the true studs, the OBJs and the DHops of the world?  The guys who actually create their production?  Well, both of those guys came to greatness on their original teams, were true sensations and great weapons, and then were somewhat surprisingly dealt to other teams, where they never recovered their initial luster.  Now they’ve been reduced to hired guns that teams hope can somehow reclaim their greatness or at least be reliable 4th receivers.

 

The bottom line is, I think, that the game has moved on from the days when the ideal was to have a true stud skill player on offense (other than your QB).  If you had a true stud, you gave him the ball every time you could.  In fact, teams have discovered that having a guy who is so good that he demands the ball is a negative, not a positive.  When you have a Derrick Henry or an OBJ, they’re only useful if you give them the ball a lot, and that limits your offense.  Having a guy like Stefon Diggs, who is prone to sulking if he doesn’t get a catch in your first series, is a liability. 

 

The Bills certainly seem to have adopted this thinking. 

 

 

GO BILLS!!!

 

The Rockpile Review is written to share the passion we have for the Buffalo Bills. That passion was born in the Rockpile; its parents were everyday people of western New York who translated their dedication to a full day’s hard work and simple pleasures into love for a pro football team.

 

 

I agree with you too a degree Shaw66. Basically all teams and players have gotten bigger faster stronger and more intelligent no matter the position. What you're saying about RB and Wr can basically be said about any other positions. 

 

The difference in every NFL game is just a couple plays and those couple of plays can come from anywhere and from nearly any player on the field. To me what makes the difference is coaching and philosophy as well as difference makers no matter the position. 

 

Finding these difference makers are what truly makes that difference just look at the Chiefs how many plays did Chris Jones make at critical times during the Chiefs Superbowl runs or Hill , Kelce and Mahomes ? 

 

If you do a comprehensive study on Superbowl winners u will start to see a common theme other then having a few difference makers on each team you also have these ultra aggressive playing styles and Mentalities from these teams.

 

Most champions have a physical identity and a mental edge and they play schemes that fit those styles . A bunch of NFL teams won Superbowls playing man to man clutch and grab defense in the secondary not many win playing predominantly zones except for a few.  Looking at the Chiefs and Pats the Buccaneers a few yrs bk the Broncos I can go on and on talking about teams that played these physical styles that won it all 

 

At the end of the day there's no true formula to winning but u can get an idea about what's needed to have a chance. Some teams get it some don't . I don't believe McBeane has the defensive schemes to be a champion neither do they have the difference makers to do so other then Allen. That's just my opinion hopefully McBeane can prove me wrong and get us over the hump .. Go Bills 

Edited May 17 by NastyNateSoldiers

[Magox]

7 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

 

Hmm. If Green Bay's success is about a creative passing scheme why didn't it work with Alan Lazard and the corpse of Randall Cobb's career? Nah. It is about WR talent. The Packers have drafted some young guys outside of round 1 but have done so in bulk and had some hits. The Chiefs wide receiver room was the weakness of the team last year and while you can say they won a Superbowl so it justifies the decisions they took but Reid immediately went out and signed a former 1st round receiver in FA and then drafted a 1st round receiver.

 

It is an interesting theory but I'm sorry I just don't buy it. The Bills receiver room doesn't look like this because the Bills have cottoned on to some league wide trend. It looks like this because they have criminally under prioritised the drafting of wide receivers. Since Beane has been GM only Tampa Bay (who have had Evans and Godwin the whole time) have prioritised the position less in the draft. 31st out of 32 teams. That is why our WR room now is a rookie, a decent slot guy who came on last year and other people's cast offs. 

 

I'm not going to speak this theory but to say that Buffalo has "criminally under prioritised" drafting WR's, I think lacks a lot of context.   The Bills traded a first to get Stefon Diggs, The Bills used their first draft choice this year to select a WR and last year drafted Kincaid.  Kincaid isn't a WR but he's not a traditional TE either, he's quasi WR and TE.  The year before that drafted a weapon in Cook who is a good receiving option.  The Bills have been decent with their mid round WR picks, Gabe and Shakir look to be very big successes relative to their draft position.     Personally, I would have liked for them to select more WR weapons over the past couple years but the Bills have been right there in the hunt and have come very close to making Super Bowls.   It was clear that the Bills needed to get more pressure on Mahomes and they swung for the fences and struck out with the Vonn injury.  Very good chance that if he hadn't gotten injured that the Bills may have made a SB.  

 

The WR room right now hinges a lot on Coleman's success, if he ends up becoming the WR that the Bills hope for then this WR room begins to look a whole lot nicer, specially when you take Kincaid into account.  Even if Coleman doesn't do well, I still think that under Brady's offense which I expect to be much more possession-like football, that the Allen will take a leap this year and make the easier passes like he did against the Chiefs in the playoffs.  Allen was making all the right choices right up until the very end, which I believe he will learn from that.   And I think learning from that is going to play perfectly into what sort of offense they will run this year.

10 minutes ago, LeGOATski said:

Clearly you need to have the best TEs in history.

 

Maybe Kincaid will turn into an ALL PRO TE.  That isn't without the realm, I think there was enough that we saw out of him this past year to at least be optimistic of how high his ceiling could reach.

[hondo in seattle]

16 minutes ago, Magox said:

You know what the Chiefs and Patriots, arguably the two most dominant football dynasties of the 2000's have had in common?   They won most of their championships without top tier WR's.   

 

The Patriots best wideouts in their Superbowl dynasty wins was probably Julian Edelman.  What followed him was very meh, but they did have a great tight end in Gronk.

 

The Chiefs, aside from the one year they had Tyreek, the past two Super bowls was JuJu Smith and a rookie Rasheed Rice.   They also have had a not too shabby TE in Kelce.

 

This clearly proves that it's not necessary to have dominant receivers to win.  You just need smart, heady guys who can make catches and to have a bigtime elite QB who can make the right decisions when it counts most.   

 

Randy Moss might disagree.

 

NFL Comeback Player of the Year (2007)

4× First-team All-Pro (1998, 2000, 2003, 2007)

6× Pro Bowl (1998–2000, 2002, 2003, 2007)

5× NFL receiving touchdowns leader (1998, 2000, 2003, 2007, 2009)

NFL 2000s All-Decade Team

NFL 100th Anniversary All-Time Team

New England Patriots All-2000s Team

New England Patriots All-Dynasty Team

[DaggersEOD]

Ok so this has me thinking, for WRs to be the new RBs, there must be a significant drop in invested cap $$ and draft assets.

 

So, where would those assets go? They would have to go to a logical spot that would make investments into RB and WR less important. 
 

That screams O-Line to me. 
 

If what you project is true, then the draft and cap $$ would start trending towards the O line. With the recent O-Line contracts lately I would call this plausible. 

[LeGOATski]

54 minutes ago, Magox said:

Maybe Kincaid will turn into an ALL PRO TE.  That isn't without the realm, I think there was enough that we saw out of him this past year to at least be optimistic of how high his ceiling could reach.

Definitely. I'm super optimistic. He had an awesome rookie year and should be the Bills' number 1 receiver.

[Beck Water]

2 hours ago, Shaw66 said:

And I think the Milano argument is incorrect.  Milano, or Von Miller, play positions where although some teamwork is necessary, the positions are primarily about individual skills.  They play off the players around them to some extent, but mostly it's about their individual makeup.  The receivers are in part about choreography - the routes they run, the options they need to make, releases off the line out of bunch formations.   

 

Von Miller, as pass rusher somewhat agree.  He's a good run defender though, and that's all about shared responsibility to maintain gap integrity.

 

Could not disagree more about Milano.  Feel that stating his play is about individual skills vs. choreography and teamwork, represents a fundamental misunderstanding of the complexity of a modern zone defense and the choices the LB and slot corner and DB need to make depending upon how they read the play and the routes being run.  Every guy on that defense needs to understand not only what his role is on the defensive play as called, but how that role changes based on pre- and post-snap motion and route options and this especially applies to the LBs and the slot corner.  

 

Intense teamwork is necessary, especially in McDermott's defense.  The defensive players aren't only reading the offensive players, they're reading each other's body language3 - there was a discussion a while back about how Hyde took the wrong angle on one play because another defensive player (think it was Dodson) looked left rather than straight or right, which indicated to Hyde that the other player was set up correctly for covering to his L, so Hyde went R.  Meanwhile the RB blew by Dodson to his L.

 

Have also been some in-depth discussions here about how a particular defensive coverage is actually executed (at the college level) and exactly how the defensive responsibilities shift in response to the routes the receivers are actually running.  It's very choreographed and very intricate.  I'll try to find one.

Edited May 17 by Beck Water

[Beck Water]

11 hours ago, Mr. WEO said:

 Diggs/Brown/Beasley was essentially 1 year (2020)---and Brown was already on his way to a quick demise.  Beasley hung on for another season then he was toast.

 

Then, in a truly bizarre act of desperation (and emblematic of the way he has abused the WR position since he rolled into town, Beane re-signed the inanimate corpses of Brown and Beasley in 2022!  The outcome was predictably sad---but that was the best idea Beane could come up with.

 

I agree with your overall point that Beane has not given the WR position its propers.

 

However, 2022 started the season with Diggs, Davis, Crowder, McKenzie, Khalil Shakir as the developmental rookie, and Jake Kumerow as the ST guy/backup X

 

By the end of the season, it was Diggs, Davis, McKenzie, Shakir, with Kumerow and Crowder both on IR and guys getting elevated off the practice squad.  Tanner Gentry was seeing meaningful snaps.

 

Now Beane's roster handling can 100% be justly criticized - Hodgins looked more promising than the other PS guys, and Beane, short on healthy CBs, exposed him to waivers knowing his buddy Joe Schoen with the Giants was desperate for WR at that point and would likely snap up a WR he'd helped to scout and draft.

 

So let's understand the signing of Brown and then Beasley to our PS in context, for what it was - signing some backup depth guys to be active on game day in case of injury to the starters, who remained Diggs, Davis, McKenzie, and Shakir.  Viewed in that light, they knew the playbook and Josh had familiarity with them, so it wasn't a Bad Thing and arguably a better thing than just elevating randoms like Dezmon Patmon or Keesean Johnson off PS.

 

If you want to criticize Beane's handling of the WR position from 2022 on, criticize the line-up that started the season - the thought that Davis was ready for an expanded role as the #2 instead of the backup platooning with Brown and then with Sanders; the thought that McKenzie was able to step into being a full time slot.

 

 

Edited May 17 by Beck Water

[BillsVet]

6 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

That is my worry. That we get through 2024 and still think "our biggest need in round of the draft is a wide receiver." And 2025 looks at this stage like a really good pass rushing group and should be the ideal time for the Bills to finally find a stud edge rusher. But if the hole is still there on offense.....

 

It's funny, because there was talk by some solid posters here about the WR position as a need in 2021, 2022, it heated up in 2023, and continued into 2024.  It's become clear their lack of investment there points to a schematic priority they don't share with most of the NFL.  Frankly, it's personnel blockheadedness.  

 

6 hours ago, oldmanfan said:

They traded for Diggs.  Drafted guys like Zay Jones and Gabe and now Coleman.  Brought in FAs like Beasley and Brown and Sanders and a number of others.  Drafted backs that could pass catch like Moss and Cook and now Davis.  Spent a first round on a pass catching TE on Kincaid and a lower pick on Knox.  During this time they’ve also been working on upgrading the O line for Josh.

 

OBD do not get points in 2024 for what they did in 2019, 2020, or 2021.  That was an eternity ago and the NFL is a "now" league.  

 

Offensively, the NFL is a vertical game and throwing downfield well tends to win in the post-season.  Throwing horizontally and short to backs, slot receivers, and to the TE makes them predictable.  Their personnel is going to limit them a lot sooner than people realize.  The MVS signing was an acknowledgement they know they're limited at WR they needed to sign a guy who's been available for 2 months on the market.  All their guys practically have the same skill set.     

[Beck Water]

On 5/15/2024 at 9:52 PM, Shaw66 said:

2.  I really didn't mean to denigrate St. Brown or Kupp.  They're both great.   But they're great in a different way.   They simply do not, cannot, dominate physically.   They are guys who we typically would think of as slot receivers.   But they have what Kelce has, which is an almost uncanny ability to find and take advantage of what the defense is giving him.   That's what I meant about their productivity.   They aren't productive because their physical talents are special, like a Metcalf.  They are productive because they have special ability to take advantage of the passing attack they're operating in.  They don't so much "produce" their yardage as they collect yardage that is available.  And they are among the very best collectors in in the league.  

 

I think that players are not quite so much the plug-and-play stars as they once may have been.  When the Bills got Diggs, we got what we expected:  a stud #1 who by his very presence on the field produces offense because of his combination of size, speed, and other physical talents.  Now, the premier receivers are guys who are thriving in a system.  So, for example, I would not necessarily expect that Kupp or St. Brown traded to most other teams would continue to be as productive - that is, they're 1500 yards might not be portable to their next team.   If I'm right about that, we will start to see the free agency value of these guys begin to drop.  

 

I've already responded a couple times, but this particular post struck me because it explicitly stated what was otherwise implied.

Combine measurements

Cooper Kupp 6' 2" 204 lb 4.62 40-time (he plays faster)

Amon-Ra St Brown 6' 0" 197 lb 4.59 40-time

Stefon Diggs 6'1" 195 lb 4.46 40-time

 

Unless you want to extoll a 0.13 or 0.16 sec difference in the Underwear Olympics, they're physically very similar players.  They dominate physically not because Diggs is larger or more powerful than Kupp or St Brown, but because of how they use their bodies to juke DBs out of their jocks and break their ankles, the crispness and timing of their routes, their skill at hand-fighting and arm-overs, and their abilities to track the ball and adjust.

 

I would VERY MUCH like the chance to do the experiment as to whether Kupp or St Brown would continue to be as productive on another team, namely OURS. It's entirely theoretical, 'cuz it's not gonna happen but my reaction would be 100% X-rated and unfit for a "family" board.

Most of the top WR who have been traded or signed as FA have been similarly productive for their new teams, at least for a year or so.  Where they fail to stay productive, it's typically not the new team or system that fails them, but their own bodies (ACLs for Beckham, hammies and MCLs for Hopkins etc).  Father Time is undefeated.

Edited May 17 by Beck Water

[HappyDays]

7 hours ago, oldmanfan said:

Brady’s offense will ask Josh to go to the open guy.

 

What if nobody gets open

[oldmanfan]

18 minutes ago, HappyDays said:

 

What if nobody gets open

Don’t be silly now.  Don’t act like Samuel, Shakir, Coleman, Kincaid and others are incapable of getting open.   Given time guys will be open.  And we have a better line that will give Josh more time.  

[oldmanfan]

1 hour ago, BillsVet said:

 

It's funny, because there was talk by some solid posters here about the WR position as a need in 2021, 2022, it heated up in 2023, and continued into 2024.  It's become clear their lack of investment there points to a schematic priority they don't share with most of the NFL.  Frankly, it's personnel blockheadedness.  

 

 

OBD do not get points in 2024 for what they did in 2019, 2020, or 2021.  That was an eternity ago and the NFL is a "now" league.  

 

Offensively, the NFL is a vertical game and throwing downfield well tends to win in the post-season.  Throwing horizontally and short to backs, slot receivers, and to the TE makes them predictable.  Their personnel is going to limit them a lot sooner than people realize.  The MVS signing was an acknowledgement they know they're limited at WR they needed to sign a guy who's been available for 2 months on the market.  All their guys practically have the same skill set.     

“Bills have dramatically under-allocateddraft picks and UFA dollars to the position the past 7-8offseasons.”

 

Your exact words and what I responded to.  But now it’s just about this off season.  
 

As for the rest show me something that backs up vertical passing as winning playoff games, and what is considered throwing downfield.  And if you think all the Bills are going to do is throw horizontal and short that’s silly.

[HappyDays]

10 hours ago, Shaw66 said:

Do you think the Bills will have 4000 yards passing this season?   Do you think they will have a 1000-yard receiver? I think the answer to both of those questions is yes.

 

I wanted to come back to this. Yes I think Allen will hit 4,000 yards passing, although I'm not quite as certain as I want to be. His passing YPG last year was his lowest since 2019. That coincided with him not having a true #1 WR for the last 10 or so games. Clearly that limitation matters, the numbers prove it. Still he's an elite QB playing behind what's likely to be a top 10ish OL. 4,000 passing yards is the expectation.

 

My question is who steps up for him in critical moments in critical games and in the playoffs? There's a really really really wide gulf between being a top 5 regular season team and winning a Super Bowl, as the Bills have exemplified better than anybody in recent memory. Those critical plays in critical moments are what bridge that gulf - it's why the Chiefs have won three Super Bowls - and it can't just be one player capable of making those plays. The whole notion of just "spreading the ball around" is fine for winning a lot of games, but it fails when you need somebody to make a special play and close out a game that matters. The game that gets you the #1 seed or gets you one round further in the playoffs.

 

I think the gap between the two sides in this discussion is closer than it appears. Nobody thinks the Bills offense is going to suck this year. I'm sure everybody agrees it will hover around top 5ish pretty much no matter what and we'll make it to the divisional round pretty much no matter what. It's that next massive step that I worry about. The pure production numbers will all look great but we'll still be sitting here next February with the same disappointment and the same discussions playing out. Nobody will be able to put their finger on exactly why we failed but I guarantee it will be because of 5-6 individual moments throughout the season and playoffs that could have been made by more special players.

 

As to your 2nd question - I think someone will hit 1,000 yards but again I'm not as confident as I'd like to be. And again I just don't really care that much. The better question is how many game changing special plays will players not named Josh Allen make? Plays like Garrett Wilson juggling and catching a one handed rebound against Tre White in the season opener. Courtland Sutton making a stunning toe tapping catch in the corner of the endzone on a prayer of a throw. Jake Elliott nailing a 60 yarder in the driving rain. For 99% of those games you might say the two teams were equal, for better or worse. That final 1% was closed by one player making one play and they certainly weren't wearing a Bills jersey.

 

Edited May 17 by HappyDays

[Beck Water]

57 minutes ago, HappyDays said:

What if nobody gets open

 

37 minutes ago, oldmanfan said:

Don’t be silly now.  Don’t act like Samuel, Shakir, Coleman, Kincaid and others are incapable of getting open.   Given time guys will be open.  And we have a better line that will give Josh more time.  

 

31 minutes ago, oldmanfan said:

As for the rest show me something that backs up vertical passing as winning playoff games, and what is considered throwing downfield.  And if you think all the Bills are going to do is throw horizontal and short that’s silly.

 

I don't think HappyDays is being entirely facetious here.

 

I don't want to get into a p*ssing match about what constitutes "throwing downfield" (official NFL stats count it as >20 yds from the LOS) and whether vertical passing wins playoff games.

 

I have been highly puzzled by folks who don't seem to think we need a downfield, vertical threat at WR but who also talk about forcing defenses to cover the entire field.  The thing being, if there isn't enough of a downfield, vertical threat to scare the opposing DC, defenses choke down on the short and intermediate stuff.  3.4 yds per attempt moves the chains, but it requires precise and mistake-free football to perambulate the football down the field and score that way.

 

We don't know what Coleman is in the NFL, but some of the film on him in college suggests that he struggles to get open vertically downfield, and is at his best as a "big slot".   Since I like sources I'll dish:  Cover1 /  NFL Draft Profile / Greg Cosell on OBL pre-day 2 :  post draft

 

Samuel can get open, true, but in his best season in Carolina he had two 1000+ yd WR playing with him.  In Washington, he had Terry McLaurin.  It's a lot easier to eat as a slot if you've got a good boundary receiver drawing attention away from you.  Samuel has never been a #1 and more than likely, that may be an unrealistic expectation.

 

Similar comments about Shakir and Kincaid - both had good seasons last year, behind Diggs and his 107 receptions for 1183 yards and Gabe Davis with his 45 receptions for 746 yds (mostly deep, 17 y/r on average).   Again, it's a different challenge for these guys to get open when they're #2-4 on the WR depth chart vs. without that #1 drawing attention

Edited May 17 by Beck Water

[Big Blitz]

On 5/15/2024 at 4:50 PM, Beast said:

If receivers are the new running backs, three wouldn’t have been selected in the top 9 picks of the draft.

 

Which is a mistake - only 2 or 3 of those guys are worth it.  When do 4 or 5 WRs really hit in one round?  
 

You're passing up other vital pieces chasing WR 1 that’s actually a likely bust when you can draft one in RD 3 or 4 or 5 and have as good a chance to hit as you would on WR 7 in RD 1.  
 

If all the WRs taken in RD 1 are hits then I mean we have scouting down to a science.  An exact one.  
 

I want elite WRs to - but I value the elite QB behind an elite oline way more then elite QB with elite WR and mid oline play or worse.  What good is having the WR then?  

[HappyDays]

45 minutes ago, oldmanfan said:

Don’t be silly now.  Don’t act like Samuel, Shakir, Coleman, Kincaid and others are incapable of getting open.   Given time guys will be open.  And we have a better line that will give Josh more time.  

 

I'm not being silly. It's actually very simple. Every single offense has a certain percentage of plays throughout the season where nobody gets open in time. Sometimes the defensive coverage just flat out wins. We can agree on this, yes? It follows that less talented offenses will have a higher percentage of those plays.

 

So that's the other failing of this whole concept. "Just throw it to the open guy" is the kind of point you make in May when you're far enough away from watching games that you forget what NFL football looks like. The Bills already faced the highest man coverage percentage of any offense in the league last year. That wasn't a coincidence and it's not going to change until we give defenses a reason to fear it. Defenses last year figured out quickly they could just 1v1 us to death and trust that nobody on our side would win their matchup. Especially once Diggs fell off a cliff that was an easy strategy to follow and only Josh Allen magic tricks were able to overcome it with any level of consistency.