THE ROCKPILE REVIEW - Receivers are a Dime a Dozen

[Mat68]

26 minutes ago, Beck Water said:

 

I think you make a number of valid points here.  Agree on 1 thru 4 and the sum.

 

The elephant in the corner of the room is, that we were missing that "true #1" which Diggs once was, in the 2nd half of the season and playoffs.

 

So the fact that Shakir can do a lot of the things Diggs offered down the stretch last season, doesn't mitigate that gap, because it was a gap down the stretch

 

Add in our earlier decision to let Gabe Davis walk, means we now have a gap followed by a rookie who seems to be one of Beane's "high ceiling/low floor" specials who often take a while to find their feet in the NFL.

 

The above points are the reason why some of us are questioning the "enough on offense to mitigate" premise.  

MVS is Davis at a fraction of the price.  Coleman likely is given the snaps and targets Davis offered.  MVS is competent in the deep threat role if needed.  Coleman offers more than both imo. The gamble is do they have enough?  I think they believe they do.  Time will tell but Cook, Shakir, and Kincaid are entering years 3,3 and 2 and they are going with the gamble they will improve to level that they dont need someone taking targets from them.  24 offseason or likley mid season I can see move if it hasn't worked out. 

[Einstein's Dog]

4 minutes ago, Robert Paulson said:

What folks are doing is drafting them on a rookie contract so they can let them walk b3fore their salary impact ts the cap.

 

That has been the RB playbook and will be the WR playbook for smart teams. Rinse and repeat every 3-5 years

Which is why the Bills only drafting one is curious.  We had 2 depart.  Hopefully they'll keep replenishing regularly now.

[Robert Paulson]

1 minute ago, Einstein's Dog said:

Which is why the Bills only drafting one is curious.  We had 2 depart.  Hopefully they'll keep replenishing regularly now.

I think Shakir is the other one staggered with Coleman. I think Skakirs replacement is drafted next year.

[Beck Water]

3 minutes ago, Mat68 said:

MVS is Davis at a fraction of the price.  Coleman likely is given the snaps and targets Davis offered.  MVS is competent in the deep threat role if needed.  Coleman offers more than both imo. The gamble is do they have enough?  I think they believe they do.  Time will tell but Cook, Shakir, and Kincaid are entering years 3,3 and 2 and they are going with the gamble they will improve to level that they dont need someone taking targets from them.  24 offseason or likley mid season I can see move if it hasn't worked out. 

 

I think regarding MVS as "Davis at a fraction of the price" is highly optimistic, but I'm having trouble articulating why.

Perhaps because looked at from a season to season (although not game to game) perspective, Davis was a rather consistent performer and improved his scored drops.  He could be counted on for 7 TD and 34-35 1D the last 2 seasons.

 

MVS seems as though his performance as a receiver is more inconsistent even though he doesn't have a lot of reported injuries.  In 2020, he had a very good season that netted him a substantial FA contract from the Chiefs, where he didn't return value.  In 2022 he approached the same receiving yards and 1D as 2020, but in 2023 his targets substantially declined - like, in half - and it's not clear why.  His snaps only fell about 10%, and the Chiefs WR corps wasn't exactly loaded last season.

[LABILLBACKER]

44 minutes ago, Robert Paulson said:

What folks are doing is drafting them on a rookie contract so they can let them walk b3fore their salary impact ts the cap.

 

That has been the RB playbook and will be the WR playbook for smart teams. Rinse and repeat every 3-5 years

At this point I'm paying Josh and an elite young pass rusher and that's it.   I'm not investing alot of money in wrs or rbs anymore.  We'll get a real good idea this season if (4) WR3 type guys can spread the wealth and produce,  without drama or busting the cap. 

[oldmanfan]

One of the issues that keeps coming up is the Bills supposedly don’t have a WR that can “stretch the field”, i.e. run fast.  With Claypool, MVS, Hamler, and  Isabella plus Shakir and Samuel who both have speed, can we now all agree that is taken care of?  Good.

[Shaw66]

2 hours ago, Einstein's Dog said:

Which is why the Bills only drafting one is curious.  We had 2 depart.  Hopefully they'll keep replenishing regularly now.

Ah, that makes a lot of sense.   You're correct.    

 

That is, if I'm correct, in the rinse-wash-repeat sense of how to manage the receiver room, then you must be drafting to replenish the veteran departures.   That does seem to be the way teams, including the Bills are running their running back room.   Draft good running backs, and be prepared to let them walk when their contracts are up.  Draft some more.  

 

And if that's correct, and I think it is, then the Bills should have drafted another receiver.  

 

Looking at it cold-heartedly, there's a good chance that one of Samuel, Shakir, or Coleman is going to let people down this season.  I like to think that they'll all be good, but realistically, probably not.  The veterans are only stopgaps, and just like the starter, one or more of MSV, Claypool, and Hollins going to wash out, more or less.  There already should be someone else, waiting in the wings.   Maybe they think Shorter is that guy.  

 

 

[Shaw66]

1 hour ago, Beck Water said:

 

I think regarding MVS as "Davis at a fraction of the price" is highly optimistic, but I'm having trouble articulating why.

Perhaps because looked at from a season to season (although not game to game) perspective, Davis was a rather consistent performer and improved his scored drops.  He could be counted on for 7 TD and 34-35 1D the last 2 seasons.

 

MVS seems as though his performance as a receiver is more inconsistent even though he doesn't have a lot of reported injuries.  In 2020, he had a very good season that netted him a substantial FA contract from the Chiefs, where he didn't return value.  In 2022 he approached the same receiving yards and 1D as 2020, but in 2023 his targets substantially declined - like, in half - and it's not clear why.  His snaps only fell about 10%, and the Chiefs WR corps wasn't exactly loaded last season.

I think MVS at least replaces Davis, although I don't know how he measures up when asked to block.  For me, they're both talented guys with good size who have demonstrated a level of inconsistency that means you can't make them the focus of your attack.   (I also think Knox is  one of those guys at his position, too.)   However, both Davis and MSV have come through for their teams big-time from time to time, and for that reason they've been useful to their teams and worth keeping around.  Once the price went up to keep Davis, he simply wasn't worth the money.   So, the fact that MSV is at least in the same category and will play for less, it was a smart move. 

 

The problem is that demonstrated level of inconsistency makes neither of them is the guy you want on the field as a regular starter.   Why?   Because when you don't have stud #1, a guy who can give you something extra, when you've decided that receiver by committee is the best way to attack defenses, one of the basic requirements is that you execute at a high level.   Over and over, you run the right route.  Over and over, you catch the ball.  Over and over, you make the block.   

 

This kind of passing attack is part of a philosophy that I believe strongly in:   Get positive yardage on every play.  Zero yardage on a play is a bad thing, and negative yardage is not even on the table.   Throwing a 50-50 ball 30 yards downfield, is much worse than throwing an 80-20 ball 6 yards, even though over five plays the 50-50 ball gets you more yards.  Inconsistency results in unnecessary zero-yardage plays, so this philosophy means that you don't want inconsistent receivers on the field.   It's almost as though consistency is more important than greatness.  

 

I liked having Davis on the team, and I like having MSV for the same reasons, but I'm sure hoping Shakir, Samuel, and Coleman get the job done, because I don't want to have to depend on a steady diet of MSV.  

[Shaw66]

3 hours ago, Einstein's Dog said:

 

 

I think Beane is an intelligent GM.  An intelligent GM would not move Diggs and Davis without a plan to replenish the WR room.  So far the WR room is woefully inadequate, yet would all come together with one trade.  

How do you know that the WR is not what he planned for?   It's just that you don't like it, and you think where the Bills are is inadequate.   I get that.   To be honest, I'm not thrilled with it either.   I don't completely understand how they will make a productive passing attack out of that room (plus the TEs and RBs).   But the fact that I don't understand doesn't really matter.  I think Beane and McDermott and Brady talked extensively about what they needed in the receiver room, and I think the reasonable assumption is that they got what they wanted.  That is, they came out of the draft in a way that followed the plan.  

 

I think the two trades back tell it all.   If the McBeane and Brady were so desperate for receivers, they either would have taken one at 28, or they would have traded back to get additional picks so they could get two receivers.   In fact, they traded back, but then they didn't take the second receiver.   Why not?   Because they didn't think a second receiver was necessary.  

 

The receiver room looks the way it did because of conscious, intentional choices made at OBD.  How it looks is part of a carefully considered plan.   Whether the plan works is a different question, and I can't argue with you if you conclude it isn't likely to work.  I don't know if it'll work.  

[Behindenemylines]

It appears that Josh’s golf mania is playing a large part with Brady. What in golf is “course management “ is now field management.  Sometimes you take out the big stick and swing for green in one, and other times you lay it up, take the short chip and make a par.  
 

im all for that.  Well placed big plays and then second and short all game.  I. Relieve another Brady made a damn good career with that 

[DCofNC]

This whole piece is a from the perspective of someone who likes a team that’s doesn’t have a WR worth a damn.   I believe, too much money/value has been/is being placed on WRs.  But they are the second highest paid players in FA, they are far from a dime a dozen.  Elite players make your team better, period.  A great WR, even if they aren’t getting the ball forces scheme shifts which opens other options.  The idea that you don’t need one good one if you have 4 really good ones is cute, that must be why every team has one, maybe two guys that do anything.  It’s basically like Parcells said about QBs, “if you have 2, you don’t have one.”  Except here, if you have 4 you don’t have two.  
 

Talent levels are vastly different, you are either blind or plain stupid if you thinks it makes no difference if you have AJ Brown and Devonte Smith or 4 guys who really can’t differentiate from each other, of which any or all you would trade for either Brown or Smith. 

 

WRs do get paid too much individually on the elite end because they only touch the ball maybe 10 times, but a guy like Brown, Hill etc, for the D to follow them and open other holes.   RBs got devalued because the emphasis shifted to passing, no other reason.  Right now the emphasis is still on passing bc the league is set up for it.  WRs are THE premier position outside of QB.  The idea they are a dime a dozen is flat out stupid.

Edited May 18 by DCofNC

[Mat68]

14 hours ago, Behindenemylines said:

It appears that Josh’s golf mania is playing a large part with Brady. What in golf is “course management “ is now field management.  Sometimes you take out the big stick and swing for green in one, and other times you lay it up, take the short chip and make a par.  
 

im all for that.  Well placed big plays and then second and short all game.  I. Relieve another Brady made a damn good career with that 

Brady and the offense need to rely on Allen to do Allen things less than 5 times a game.  The vast majority of the game needs to be schemed up.  Too often over the last few years with Dabol and Dorsey it was close to half.

Edited May 18 by Mat68

[Mat68]

13 minutes ago, DCofNC said:

This whole piece is a from the perspective of someone who likes a team that’s doesn’t have a WR worth a damn.   I believe, too much money/value has been/is being placed on WRs.  But they are the second highest paid players in FA, they are far from a dime a dozen.  Elite players make your team better, period.  A great WR, even if they aren’t getting the ball forces scheme shifts which opens other options.  The idea that you don’t need one good one if you have 4 really good ones is cute, that must be why every team has one, maybe two guys that do anything.  It’s basically like Parcells said about QBs, “if you have 2, you don’t have one.”  Except here, if you have 4 you don’t have two.  
 

Talent levels are vastly different, you are either blind or plain stupid if you thinks it makes no difference if you have AJ Brown and Devonte Smith or 4 guys who really can’t differentiate from each other, of which any or all you would trade for either Brown or Smith. 

 

WRs do get paid too much individually on the elite end because they only touch the ball maybe 10 times, but a guy like Brown, Hill etc, for the D to follow them and open other holes.   RBs got devalued because the emphasis shifted to passing, no other reason.  Right now the emphasis is still on passing bc the league is set up for it.  WRs are THE premier position outside of QB.  The idea they are a dime a dozen is flat out stupid.

In a deep Wr class they drafted one they liked early.  Signed a career #2 wr in Samuel and think they have a real player in Shakir.  Wr 4,5,6 on every team is a crap shoot.  Hollins, Claypool and MVS have been wr 2 and 3 before in their careers. Compared to KC and Baltimore the Bills skill positions are in a similar position as both. 

[Beck Water]

5 hours ago, Shaw66 said:

I think MVS at least replaces Davis, although I don't know how he measures up when asked to block. 

 

MVS is a good blocker.  Someone in the MVS thread quipped that Kelce owes him Christmas presents for life because of all the YAC MVS sprung for him.

[Beck Water]

Snark Snark

 

 

[GunnerBill]

4 hours ago, Beck Water said:

Snark Snark

 

 

 

In fairness I think MVS does work. He just what he is. A guy who should never be higher than 3rd on your WR depth chart. 

 

Claypool is an attempt to fix broken.

[SoCal Deek]

I’m in the camp of let Josh work with these guys and we might just find out we have a much better WR room than any of us think. Over the last two seasons the Bills have taken a WR and a TE with their first picks. That’s hardly ‘ignoring’ the receiver position. In short….relax! 

[Shaw66]

4 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

 

In fairness I think MVS does work. He just what he is. A guy who should never be higher than 3rd on your WR depth chart. 

 

Claypool is an attempt to fix broken.

Exactly, as to both.  MVS likely will turn out to be useful; Claypool is a shot in the dark.

[Nephilim17]

On 5/18/2024 at 1:44 AM, Beck Water said:

Snark Snark

 

 

MVS worked very nicely in the playoffs. We only wished Diggs was a playoff performer for us.

He's not a feature guy but he will produce as a 3 or 4 in the playoffs. 

 

I think Beane, based off of his Chris Long interview, is banking on Kincaid being a top-five TE this year.

[Beck Water]

23 minutes ago, Nephilim17 said:

MVS worked very nicely in the playoffs. We only wished Diggs was a playoff performer for us.

He's not a feature guy but he will produce as a 3 or 4 in the playoffs. 

 

I think Beane, based off of his Chris Long interview, is banking on Kincaid being a top-five TE this year.

 

I had that impression myself.  

 

I like Kincaid.  I think he has very high potential.

 

I'm also concerned that Beane is very much following the blueprint he saw for roster building in Carolina especially with regard to the WR position