THE ROCKPILE REVIEW - Receivers are a Dime a Dozen

[scuba guy]

25 minutes ago, HappyDays said:

 

 

So we play the jets twice the cheats twice and kc for a while that is 5 teams that play man straight up out of a 17 game season and with Ramsey the fins play more man also

[Shaw66]

9 hours ago, HappyDays said:

 

I wanted to come back to this. Yes I think Allen will hit 4,000 yards passing, although I'm not quite as certain as I want to be. His passing YPG last year was his lowest since 2019. That coincided with him not having a true #1 WR for the last 10 or so games. Clearly that limitation matters, the numbers prove it. Still he's an elite QB playing behind what's likely to be a top 10ish OL. 4,000 passing yards is the expectation.

 

My question is who steps up for him in critical moments in critical games and in the playoffs? There's a really really really wide gulf between being a top 5 regular season team and winning a Super Bowl, as the Bills have exemplified better than anybody in recent memory. Those critical plays in critical moments are what bridge that gulf - it's why the Chiefs have won three Super Bowls - and it can't just be one player capable of making those plays. The whole notion of just "spreading the ball around" is fine for winning a lot of games, but it fails when you need somebody to make a special play and close out a game that matters. The game that gets you the #1 seed or gets you one round further in the playoffs.

 

I think the gap between the two sides in this discussion is closer than it appears. Nobody thinks the Bills offense is going to suck this year. I'm sure everybody agrees it will hover around top 5ish pretty much no matter what and we'll make it to the divisional round pretty much no matter what. It's that next massive step that I worry about. The pure production numbers will all look great but we'll still be sitting here next February with the same disappointment and the same discussions playing out. Nobody will be able to put their finger on exactly why we failed but I guarantee it will be because of 5-6 individual moments throughout the season and playoffs that could have been made by more special players.

 

As to your 2nd question - I think someone will hit 1,000 yards but again I'm not as confident as I'd like to be. And again I just don't really care that much. The better question is how many game changing special plays will players not named Josh Allen make? Plays like Garrett Wilson juggling and catching a one handed rebound against Tre White in the season opener. Courtland Sutton making a stunning toe tapping catch in the corner of the endzone on a prayer of a throw. Jake Elliott nailing a 60 yarder in the driving rain. For 99% of those games you might say the two teams were equal, for better or worse. That final 1% was closed by one player making one play and they certainly weren't wearing a Bills jersey.

 

Excellent discussion.   I agree with your concerns, particulalrly that the phulisiphy thw Bills folliw is greay for the regukar season but not so goos for the playoffs.

[Einstein's Dog]

3 hours ago, DJB said:

 

And you have to figure the Bills RB room is in a similar position - low round 2 Cook, round 4 rookie and bargain basement Ty.

[beacon]

Yeah Watkins your right

 Philly spends 57mil on 2 receivers. I just don't think too many teams are going to do that. Who knows what waddle will get. Hill makes 30 already. I don't think receivers will ever be  devalued like rb but an elite QB can make a lot of receivers better. I hope Allen can do it, which I think he can.

[Big Blitz]

1 hour ago, GunnerBill said:

 

What if WR6 is just a better player than S2 or DE3 though? 

 

Ask 32 GMs and you’ll hear 32 different answers about the prospect, need, and draft philosophy.   
 

Ultimately it comes down to what you project that player to be.  I don’t think there is a right answer.  My preference in round 2 pick 60 was to trade up and get my center.  They wanted S and got their C later.  

I can’t disagree with how we approached this draft.  

We were aging out.  We have new holes to fill and that means you can’t just give away tons of draft capital to try to move up into the top 15 or top 10.  Everything about our roster and cap situation going into this draft said we need picks.  Lots of them and we have to hit on them.  

 

We don’t know answers or what we should have done until their careers play out anyway and even then you can argue - “who knows how Mahomes pans out if he doesn’t sit for Reid for a full season.”   

[PBF81]

It won't be long before our new Slot 4 Offense is unleashed and revealed! 

 

Buckle up!  

 

🧐

 

 

Edited May 17 by PBF81

[FireChans]

For all the talk about scheme mattering over talent, let’s look at the Shanny scheme in particular.

 

2019 Niners passing offense

29th in att

13th in yards

10th in passing TD’s

2019 Niners receiving weapons:

Deebo

Kittle

Emmanuel Sanders

Kendrick Bourne

Juszczyk 

 

2023 Niners passing offense:

32nd in att

4th in yards

2nd in passing TD’s

 

2023 receiving weapons:

Aiyuk

Kittle

Deebo

Jennings

CMC

 

did Shanny become a much better coordinator over the last 4 seasons or MAYBE was having more elite talent actually the difference?

 

[Beck Water]

8 minutes ago, FireChans said:

For all the talk about scheme mattering over talent, let’s look at the Shanny scheme in particular.

 

2019 Niners passing offense

29th in att

13th in yards

10th in passing TD’s

2019 Niners receiving weapons:

Deebo

Kittle

Emmanuel Sanders

Kendrick Bourne

Juszczyk 

 

2023 Niners passing offense:

32nd in att

4th in yards

2nd in passing TD’s

 

2023 receiving weapons:

Aiyuk

Kittle

Deebo

Jennings

CMC

 

did Shanny become a much better coordinator over the last 4 seasons or MAYBE was having more elite talent actually the difference?

 

 

Valid point IMHO.

 

It's a counter point that Sanders, even towards the end of his career, was a legit receiver and that two of the key pieces (Deebo and Kittle) are the same; Jennings vs Bourne is probably a "push" or advantage Bourne.   CMC is a damned Unicorn though, and elevated the talent that offense the moment he walked on the field

 

Dare one say, though, Brock Purdy is a better passer than Jimmy Garappolo - as accurate and careful with the ball, more willing to take the deeper shot and push the ball downfield, as shown by almost 2 yards higher AY/A. 

 

In fact wasn't that the "word" that developed on Garappolo, that if you choked off the short stuff he wouldn't take the deep shots so you could stifle his passing game?  I bring that up for the benefit of those who think the Bills can force opposing defenses to defend the entire field without a reasonable vertical threat at WR

[Beck Water]

6 hours ago, Mr. WEO said:

 

The obvious point is that Beane and McD create the WR room.  If they find themselves hiring old timers back mid season for depth, then there's a problem with the WR room...

 

No, the obvious point is that most teams carry 6 WR on the active roster.

 

If you lose two of those WR to injury (the second past the trade deadline), you have to make additions to the receiving room from somewhere.  If your PS WR are too good, they're going to be poached or claimed if they're elevated and waived (as happened with Hopkins).

 

If you'd like to make the argument that 2 PS guys on our or any other roster were gonna contribute more than Brown and Beasley off the coach, Have At It.

[FireChans]

13 minutes ago, Beck Water said:

 

Valid point IMHO.

 

It's a counter point that Sanders, even towards the end of his career, was a legit receiver and that two of the key pieces (Deebo and Kittle) are the same; Jennings vs Bourne is probably a "push" or advantage Bourne.   CMC is a damned Unicorn though, and elevated the talent that offense the moment he walked on the field

 

Dare one say, though, Brock Purdy is a better passer than Jimmy Garappolo - as accurate and careful with the ball, more willing to take the deeper shot and push the ball downfield, as shown by almost 2 yards higher AY/A. 

 

In fact wasn't that the "word" that developed on Garappolo, that if you choked off the short stuff he wouldn't take the deep shots so you could stifle his passing game?  I bring that up for the benefit of those who think the Bills can force opposing defenses to defend the entire field without a reasonable vertical threat at WR

The difference between Aiyuk and Sander is far greater than the difference between Purdy and Garropolo, imo.

 

I don’t think Jimmy G - Purdy is the driving force between the difference in yards and TD’s.

Edited May 17 by FireChans

[GoBills808]

34 minutes ago, FireChans said:

For all the talk about scheme mattering over talent, let’s look at the Shanny scheme in particular.

 

2019 Niners passing offense

29th in att

13th in yards

10th in passing TD’s

2019 Niners receiving weapons:

Deebo

Kittle

Emmanuel Sanders

Kendrick Bourne

Juszczyk 

 

2023 Niners passing offense:

32nd in att

4th in yards

2nd in passing TD’s

 

2023 receiving weapons:

Aiyuk

Kittle

Deebo

Jennings

CMC

 

did Shanny become a much better coordinator over the last 4 seasons or MAYBE was having more elite talent actually the difference?

 

Let's leave a bit of room for Purdy>jimmy G

[FireChans]

Just now, GoBills808 said:

Let's leave a bit of room for Purdy>jimmy G

Never. He’s Tua/Mac Jones West.

[GoBills808]

Just now, FireChans said:

Never. He’s Tua/Mac Jones West.

Yeah but Tua is significantly better than Garoppolo

 

anyway I agree w your overall point on Niners weapons

[Mat68]

22 hours ago, Einstein's Dog said:

Managing the cap is part of Beane's job.  If he chooses to not get another WR my evaluation of his performance decreases tremendously.  He should of had (and I think he did) all of this planned or at least outlined in his head prior to unloading Diggs.  The idea floated about now that Beane is ahead of the curve by assembling a room of no-name WRs doesn't come close to cutting it. 

 

No, my avenue to thinking Beane is smart is through his thinking ahead when he accumulated draft picks, put aside Tre money, and left some Josh money on the table, and only drafted one WR.  That all makes sense when he trades for a good WR.  A WR room featuring a rookie, $8M WR2/3, and Shakir is mind-blowingly poor.

 

Getting into the weeds a little bit on the cap piece, the salary can be manipulated once they are brought on board.  For instance last years salary of DHop is listed as $1.8M in spotrac.  Games can be played with distributing the cost over multiple years.  And if we got a WR for multiple years, the offensive playmakers are set.  Josh- multiple, Cook 2 yrs more, Kincaid 4yrs, Shakir 2, K Coleman 4, Samuel 3, new WR multiple, backup RB 4.  They don't need 2025 cap on offense playmakers.

 

We'll see if Shaw changes his tune once Beane pulls the trigger and gets a real WR in here.  Then you can say, even in this youth transition Beane improved the WR room.  That's a good GM.  

When you trade for a player you get the contract as it is. That has to fit the current cap situation.  Once here the contract can be changed but the contract being acquired is the one he signed.

 

 The Diggs trade is made with the belief that…

 

1. Diggs is no longer a top 10 receiver and Buffalo is paying him like he is for the next 3 years.

 

 2. The compensation offered from Houston will be the highest he will garner going forward.  

 

3. Shakir in a primary role can do a lot of the things Diggs offered down the stretch last season.

 

4.  Diggs was not going to accept a reduced target share.  160 targets was not happening and Diggs was already campaigning for his usage to match the first half of 2023 vs the second half of the season.  
 

The sum of it all is why they made the trade.  Shakirs  potential, the ability to add a solid prospect in the draft and addition of Samuel made the trade something Buffalo could swallow.   Diggs wanted out so Monday through Saturday improvement greatly.  Sunday they feel they have enough on offense to mitigate his absence.  Adding Ayuik, or Higgins wasnt part of it.  You could add Debo or Hopkins but I dont see the difference makers they once were and the cost wouldn't match what you were getting.  

[Beck Water]

38 minutes ago, FireChans said:

Never. He’s Tua/Mac Jones West.

 

Tua >> Garappolo

 

Your point about the quality of talent the same coaches had to work with leading to better results with the scheme still valid

[Einstein's Dog]

9 minutes ago, Mat68 said:

When you trade for a player you get the contract as it is. That has to fit the current cap situation.  Once here the contract can be changed but the contract being acquired is the one he signed.

 

 The Diggs trade is made with the belief that…

 

1. Diggs is no longer a top 10 receiver and Buffalo is paying him like he is for the next 3 years.

 

 2. The compensation offered from Houston will be the highest he will garner going forward.  

 

3. Shakir in a primary role can do a lot of the things Diggs offered down the stretch last season.

 

4.  Diggs was not going to accept a reduced target share.  160 targets was not happening and Diggs was already campaigning for his usage to match the first half of 2023 vs the second half of the season.  
 

The sum of it all is why they made the trade.  Shakirs  potential, the ability to add a solid prospect in the draft and addition of Samuel made the trade something Buffalo could swallow.   Diggs wanted out so Monday through Saturday improvement greatly.  Sunday they feel they have enough on offense to mitigate his absence.  Adding Ayuik, or Higgins wasnt part of it.  You could add Debo or Hopkins but I dont see the difference makers they once were and the cost wouldn't match what you were getting.  

Yes, when you trade you have to accept some type of contract (oldmanfan quoted cap hit minus bonus).  That is why everyone is thinking June 1st is relevant.

 

I don't mind trading Diggs, I kind of like it, if there is a suitable replacement.  C Samuels is not IMO (and many others) a suitable replacement.  C Samuels/K Coleman combine to make for a suitable replacement (arguably upgrade) over G Davis.

 

I think Beane is an intelligent GM.  An intelligent GM would not move Diggs and Davis without a plan to replenish the WR room.  So far the WR room is woefully inadequate, yet would all come together with one trade.  I don't know how you can be so sure Aiyuk wasn't part of it - SF just drafted 2 WRs with one in the first round - when they have Deebo/Aiyuk/CMC/Kittle with contracts for Aiyuk + Purdy looming.

[Beck Water]

23 minutes ago, Mat68 said:

When you trade for a player you get the contract as it is. That has to fit the current cap situation.  Once here the contract can be changed but the contract being acquired is the one he signed.

 

 The Diggs trade is made with the belief that…

 

1. Diggs is no longer a top 10 receiver and Buffalo is paying him like he is for the next 3 years.

 

 2. The compensation offered from Houston will be the highest he will garner going forward.  

 

3. Shakir in a primary role can do a lot of the things Diggs offered down the stretch last season.

 

4.  Diggs was not going to accept a reduced target share.  160 targets was not happening and Diggs was already campaigning for his usage to match the first half of 2023 vs the second half of the season.  
 

The sum of it all is why they made the trade.  Shakirs  potential, the ability to add a solid prospect in the draft and addition of Samuel made the trade something Buffalo could swallow.   Diggs wanted out so Monday through Saturday improvement greatly.  Sunday they feel they have enough on offense to mitigate his absence.  Adding Ayuik, or Higgins wasnt part of it.  You could add Debo or Hopkins but I dont see the difference makers they once were and the cost wouldn't match what you were getting.  

 

I think you make a number of valid points here.  Agree on 1 thru 4 and the sum.

 

The elephant in the corner of the room is, that we were missing that "true #1" which Diggs once was, in the 2nd half of the season and playoffs.

 

So the fact that Shakir can do a lot of the things Diggs offered down the stretch last season, doesn't mitigate that gap, because it was a gap down the stretch

 

Add in our earlier decision to let Gabe Davis walk, means we now have a gap followed by a rookie who seems to be one of Beane's "high ceiling/low floor" specials who often take a while to find their feet in the NFL.

 

The above points are the reason why some of us are questioning the "enough on offense to mitigate" premise.  

[Beck Water]

5 hours ago, HappyDays said:

 

 

 

It truly surprises me that the % of man coverage the Bills saw in 2020 and 2021 was higher.

I would have thought that in 2020 and 2021 we had a group of receivers that DCs would decline to man up against.

 

Shows what I know.

 

Do you know if there are stats about success against man vs zone each year?

 

 

[Mr. WEO]

1 hour ago, Beck Water said:

 

No, the obvious point is that most teams carry 6 WR on the active roster.

 

If you lose two of those WR to injury (the second past the trade deadline), you have to make additions to the receiving room from somewhere.  If your PS WR are too good, they're going to be poached or claimed if they're elevated and waived (as happened with Hopkins).

 

If you'd like to make the argument that 2 PS guys on our or any other roster were gonna contribute more than Brown and Beasley off the coach, Have At It.

 

who were the PS guys when the re-signed Brown and Beasley?  who were the ones who were "too good"--- that got away, forcing Beane to call Brown and Beasley yet again?

[Robert Paulson]

On 5/15/2024 at 3:50 PM, Beast said:

If receivers are the new running backs, three wouldn’t have been selected in the top 9 picks of the draft.

What folks are doing is drafting them on a rookie contract so they can let them walk b3fore their salary impact ts the cap.

 

That has been the RB playbook and will be the WR playbook for smart teams. Rinse and repeat every 3-5 years