THE ROCKPILE REVIEW - Receivers are a Dime a Dozen

[oldmanfan]

1 hour ago, Beck Water said:

 

 

 

I don't think HappyDays is being entirely facetious here.

 

I don't want to get into a p*ssing match about what constitutes "throwing downfield" (official NFL stats count it as >20 yds from the LOS) and whether vertical passing wins playoff games.

 

I have been highly puzzled by folks who don't seem to think we need a downfield, vertical threat at WR but who also talk about forcing defenses to cover the entire field.  The thing being, if there isn't enough of a downfield, vertical threat to scare the opposing DC, defenses choke down on the short and intermediate stuff.  3.4 yds per attempt moves the chains, but it requires precise and mistake-free football to perambulate the football down the field and score that way.

 

We don't know what Coleman is in the NFL, but some of the film on him in college suggests that he struggles to get open vertically downfield, and is at his best as a "big slot".   Since I like sources I'll dish:  Cover1 /  NFL Draft Profile / Greg Cosell on OBL pre-day 2 :  post draft

 

Samuel can get open, true, but in his best season in Carolina he had two 1000+ yd WR playing with him.  In Washington, he had Terry McLaurin.  It's a lot easier to eat as a slot if you've got a good boundary receiver drawing attention away from you.  Samuel has never been a #1 and more than likely, that may be an unrealistic expectation.

 

Similar comments about Shakir and Kincaid - both had good seasons last year, behind Diggs and his 107 receptions for 1183 yards and Gabe Davis with his 45 receptions for 746 yds (mostly deep, 17 y/r on average).   Again, it's a different challenge for these guys to get open when they're #2-4 on the WR depth chart vs. without that #1 drawing attention

Gabe got open downfield and he didn’t have a great 40 time right?  Shakir and  Samuel are plenty fast enough and now you have MVS.  One of the stats I have seen is that league wide only 1% of throws last year covered 40 yards or more in the air, so it seems this deep threat stuff is overblown.  And getting guys open in the intermediate zones is about scheme, which is why I started a thread about this season being all about Brady.  If you put out Coleman, Samuel, Shakir, Kincaid, and Cook that’s a lot for a defense to account for.

 

1 hour ago, HappyDays said:

 

I'm not being silly. It's actually very simple. Every single offense has a certain percentage of plays throughout the season where nobody gets open in time. Sometimes the defensive coverage just flat out wins. We can agree on this, yes? It follows that less talented offenses will have a higher percentage of those plays.

 

So that's the other failing of this whole concept. "Just throw it to the open guy" is the kind of point you make in May when you're far enough away from watching games that you forget what NFL football looks like. The Bills already faced the highest man coverage percentage of any offense in the league last year. That wasn't a coincidence and it's not going to change until we give defenses a reason to fear it. Defenses last year figured out quickly they could just 1v1 us to death and trust that nobody on our side would win their matchup. Especially once Diggs fell off a cliff that was an easy strategy to follow and only Josh Allen magic tricks were able to overcome it with any level of consistency.

Your last sentence says a lot.  We have a star QB.  This season is about Brady and his game plans and schemes so the great QB can thrive.

[Beck Water]

1 hour ago, Big Blitz said:

 

Which is a mistake - only 2 or 3 of those guys are worth it.  When do 4 or 5 WRs really hit in one round?  
 

You're passing up other vital pieces chasing WR 1 that’s actually a likely bust when you can draft one in RD 3 or 4 or 5 and have as good a chance to hit as you would on WR 7 in RD 1.  
 

If all the WRs taken in RD 1 are hits then I mean we have scouting down to a science.  An exact one.  
 

I want elite WRs to - but I value the elite QB behind an elite oline way more then elite QB with elite WR and mid oline play or worse.  What good is having the WR then?  

 

With respect, I think you're thinking may be a bit off in several regards.

 

I did a post before the draft where I looked at the number of WR drafted in early rounds and where the most successful WRs were selected.

It's definitely not always "the top 2 or 3 WR taken turn out to be the best".  

 

So yeah, you're right, out of 7 1st round WR probably only 2 or 3 will be quality NFL players, but which 2 or 3?  That's why teams take shots.

 

And no, in terms of % of draft picks who succeed, teams don't have "as good a chance to hit" as they would on the 7th WR drafted in round 1.  Statistically it's something like 25-30% success at the bottom of the 1st/top of the 2nd round, falls to more like 20% in rd 3 and by rd 5 it's more like 10-15%.

[GunnerBill]

6 hours ago, Magox said:

 

I'm not going to speak this theory but to say that Buffalo has "criminally under prioritised" drafting WR's, I think lacks a lot of context.   The Bills traded a first to get Stefon Diggs, The Bills used their first draft choice this year to select a WR and last year drafted Kincaid.  Kincaid isn't a WR but he's not a traditional TE either, he's quasi WR and TE.  The year before that drafted a weapon in Cook who is a good receiving option.  The Bills have been decent with their mid round WR picks, Gabe and Shakir look to be very big successes relative to their draft position.     Personally, I would have liked for them to select more WR weapons over the past couple years but the Bills have been right there in the hunt and have come very close to making Super Bowls.   It was clear that the Bills needed to get more pressure on Mahomes and they swung for the fences and struck out with the Vonn injury.  Very good chance that if he hadn't gotten injured that the Bills may have made a SB.  

 

The WR room right now hinges a lot on Coleman's success, if he ends up becoming the WR that the Bills hope for then this WR room begins to look a whole lot nicer, specially when you take Kincaid into account.  Even if Coleman doesn't do well, I still think that under Brady's offense which I expect to be much more possession-like football, that the Allen will take a leap this year and make the easier passes like he did against the Chiefs in the playoffs.  Allen was making all the right choices right up until the very end, which I believe he will learn from that.   And I think learning from that is going to play perfectly into what sort of offense they will run this year.

 

Maybe Kincaid will turn into an ALL PRO TE.  That isn't without the realm, I think there was enough that we saw out of him this past year to at least be optimistic of how high his ceiling could reach.

 

I don't buy this "pass catching weapons" thing either. It's the Sal C argument. The receivers might suck but they have KIncaid and Knox and Cook who can all make plays. Sure. But sometimes in the clutch it comes down to your receiver against their DB. If Shakir doesn't get held up for a second at the end of the KC game Allen throws it a second earlier, Jones never gets there and the Bills have a touchdown. While weapons in the round definitely matter there is a reason guys who play outside are more valuable in the NFL.... tackles, edge rushers, outside receivers and corners. Because it is hard to hide that with scheme. It becomes mano v mano. And the Bills still have a big question out there.

4 hours ago, BillsVet said:

 

It's funny, because there was talk by some solid posters here about the WR position as a need in 2021, 2022, it heated up in 2023, and continued into 2024.  It's become clear their lack of investment there points to a schematic priority they don't share with most of the NFL.  Frankly, it's personnel blockheadedness.  

     

 

I think in 2021 there was a case for taking one somewhere. In 2022 and 2023 I thought it was where they should have been looking round 1. They ended up backed into a corner this year where Diggs and Davis were gone and they had nothing in the pipeline.

[Beck Water]

58 minutes ago, oldmanfan said:

Gabe got open downfield and he didn’t have a great 40 time right?  Shakir and  Samuel are plenty fast enough and now you have MVS.  One of the stats I have seen is that league wide only 1% of throws last year covered 40 yards or more in the air, so it seems this deep threat stuff is overblown.  And getting guys open in the intermediate zones is about scheme, which is why I started a thread about this season being all about Brady.  If you put out Coleman, Samuel, Shakir, Kincaid, and Cook that’s a lot for a defense to account for.

 

Your last sentence says a lot.  We have a star QB.  This season is about Brady and his game plans and schemes so the great QB can thrive.

 

Couple of things here just correcting misunderstanding. 

 

First, the NFL stats define a deep throw as traveling more than 20 yds past the LOS.  So when I, at least, am talking about a vertical threat or a boundary receiver stretching the field, I'm not just talking about 40 yd throws (though for a QB who starts out in shotgun and takes a deep drop, 20 yds past the LOS can become 40 air yards, so there's that).  NFL NexGen Stats show that the best QB typically have CAY between 4 and 7.5 yds - so a throw which travels 15 yards past the LOS is a pretty deep throw.  

 

That's really what we're talking about - stretching the defense deeper than 5-10 yds past the LOS.  Otherwise you get the same effect which makes the last 10 yds of the Red Zone more challenging for offenses to operate in - you just get more bodies piling in to a shorter space.  And yes, certainly clever scheming helps get guys open (along with the refs letting pick plays and push offs slide) but only so much.

 

Second, yes, you're correct Gabe Davis got open deep and he didn't have a great 40 time.  Speed is only one factor in a WR being a successful vertical threat, and maybe not the most important overall.  He has to be able to get a clean release off the line against physical coverage and quickly get past the area where contact is legal.  That takes deceptive body language/footwork and strength.  Then, he may have to be hand-fighting and holding off the DB all the way down the field.  Davis had a strong release and great hand-fighting skills and he could break DB's ankles.  

 

Cheers!

[Beck Water]

2 hours ago, HappyDays said:

 

I'm not being silly. It's actually very simple. Every single offense has a certain percentage of plays throughout the season where nobody gets open in time. Sometimes the defensive coverage just flat out wins. We can agree on this, yes? It follows that less talented offenses will have a higher percentage of those plays.

 

So that's the other failing of this whole concept. "Just throw it to the open guy" is the kind of point you make in May when you're far enough away from watching games that you forget what NFL football looks like. The Bills already faced the highest man coverage percentage of any offense in the league last year. That wasn't a coincidence and it's not going to change until we give defenses a reason to fear it. Defenses last year figured out quickly they could just 1v1 us to death and trust that nobody on our side would win their matchup. Especially once Diggs fell off a cliff that was an easy strategy to follow and only Josh Allen magic tricks were able to overcome it with any level of consistency.

 

Well put.

 

@HappyDays, where did you find the stats about man vs zone coverage %?

 

I don't disbelieve it at all - in fact I thought I heard it elsewhere, Cover1 maybe.  And it was a comment I found myself making while watching games, 'they can't get open vs. man'.  But I'd love to know how it compares to 2022 and 2021.

 

In 2020 and 2021, I would believe the Bills may have faced one of the lower percentages of man coverage, because we had a lot of guys who could get open against man - in addition to Diggs, we had Brown, Sanders, Beasley, McKenzie

 

I do think we usually had someone open, but it was often a check-down guy who might end up short of the sticks, and Josh still has his allergy to taking the checkdown quickly when that option can lead to good YAC.

 

I also do think that clever scheming could have gotten WR open vs man more often.  Dorsey seemed to like plays which combined both zone- and man-beater elements, which meant there might be only 1 or 2 options against man.  I think that's why we did some better under Brady, and to me, "what will Brady's offense look like?" is one of the key unanswered questions for the upcoming season.  But even with great scheme, it still helps to have someone stretching the field vertically.

[oldmanfan]

51 minutes ago, Beck Water said:

 

Couple of things here just correcting misunderstanding. 

 

First, the NFL stats define a deep throw as traveling more than 20 yds past the LOS.  So when I, at least, am talking about a vertical threat or a boundary receiver stretching the field, I'm not just talking about 40 yd throws (though for a QB who starts out in shotgun and takes a deep drop, 20 yds past the LOS can become 40 air yards, so there's that).  NFL NexGen Stats show that the best QB typically have CAY between 4 and 7.5 yds - so a throw which travels 15 yards past the LOS is a pretty deep throw.  

 

That's really what we're talking about - stretching the defense deeper than 5-10 yds past the LOS.  Otherwise you get the same effect which makes the last 10 yds of the Red Zone more challenging for offenses to operate in - you just get more bodies piling in to a shorter space.  And yes, certainly clever scheming helps get guys open (along with the refs letting pick plays and push offs slide) but only so much.

 

Second, yes, you're correct Gabe Davis got open deep and he didn't have a great 40 time.  Speed is only one factor in a WR being a successful vertical threat, and maybe not the most important overall.  He has to be able to get a clean release off the line against physical coverage and quickly get past the area where contact is legal.  That takes deceptive body language/footwork and strength.  Then, he may have to be hand-fighting and holding off the DB all the way down the field.  Davis had a strong release and great hand-fighting skills and he could break DB's ankles.  

 

Cheers!

But I would say then that I’ve seen both Shakir and Kincaid do what you indicate in that intermediate zone. I haven’t watched Samuel much but could he have been in the league as long as he has without doing so?

 

People keep saying we need someone who can go deep to open up the middle.  You have 4 guys right now on the roster who fit that:  Claypool, MVS, Hamler, and Isabella.  It seems to me at least one of them earns a job.

Edited May 17 by oldmanfan

[Thurman#1]

13 hours ago, HappyDays said:

 

I like Shakir as a complementary piece. Expecting him to grow into the caliber of a Kupp or an ASB is if anything unfair to him IMO.

 

That's how I would describe this WR room. It's top to bottom all complementary pieces. There is no go to guy unless Coleman defies expectations and immediately becomes a #1 caliber WR.

 

My best hope isn't in the WR room. It's in Kincaid. He's the one player on the roster where I see a realistic path to being an elite receiver this year. After him my next best hope is Coleman hitting his stride by week 10 or so.

 

So I'm not saying there is no path. But if that path doesn't develop we are not going to have an elite offense by "spreading the ball around." Every elite offense in recent memory has had a #1 target that everybody knew was the #1. In fact all elite offenses in recent memory also had a #2 target that was clearly the #2. There's no such thing as #1/#2 by committee. I thought that debate was closed last year...

 

 

 

We don't need to have an elite offense. A very good offense? Yeah. Elite? Nah.

 

Can you have a very good offense by spreading the ball around? Yeah, you can.

 

Below are the top three offenses every year for the last ten years. Bolded and in red are all of the teams out of those elite offenses that won the Super Bowl.

 

2023: Fins, 9ers, Lions

2022: Chiefs, Bills, Eagles

2021:  Cowboys, Bucs, Chiefs

2020:  Chiefs, Bills, Titans

2019:  Cowboys, Ravens, Bucs

2018:  Chiefs, Rams, Bucs

2017:  Pats, Saints, Steelers

2016:  Saints, Falcons, Commanders

2015:  Cardinals, Saints, Steelers

2014:  Saints, Steelers, Colts

 

And out of that one team, bolded and in red, that was an elite offense that won a Super Bowl in the last ten years, what did their WR room look like? Juju Smith-Schuster was their most productive WR, with 933 yards. Valdez-Scantling was their second-most-productive with 687.

 

And yes, they had a sensational TE. That's the way we are trying to go as well. Again, Kincaid has the 4th best rookie year in history for TEs in terms of receptions and the 10th best in terms of yards. He could very well be very very good this year.

 

 

[DJB]

 

[beacon]

I think it all comes down to $$$$. Cap is 250mil. Say 45m for QB, 35m for elite wr, 30m for edge and 30m for left tackle. 140m for 4 positions. 110m left over. College football is loaded with all kinds of receivers. I lean towards Green Bays approach. Draft a couple each year and unless you have an outright superstar stud, just churn thru them. An elite QB will find them. They have one in Allen. Great topic Shaw. Can't wait to see how Allen/Brady respond this season. Seems like all the talking heads have the Bills imploding, maybe it's justified. I don't think so but I am a diehard, psychotic Bills fan. First live game I attended was oj's rookie year at the rockpile. 

 

Edited May 17 by beacon

[beacon]

This is my 4th post ever. Sorry for the double take. Couldn't figure out how to edit. 

[beacon]

I did it 😄... I'm not a complete moron, just a partial one.

[GunnerBill]

29 minutes ago, beacon said:

I think it all comes down to $$$$. Cap is 250mil. Say 45m for QB, 35m for elite wr, 30m for edge and 30m for left tackle. 140m for 4 positions. 110m left over. College football is loaded with all kinds of receivers. I lean towards Green Bays approach. Draft a couple each year and unless you have an outright superstar stud, just churn thru them. An elite QB will find them. They have one in Allen. Great topic Shaw. Can't wait to see how Allen/Brady respond this season. Seems like all the talking heads have the Bills imploding, maybe it's justified. I don't think so but I am a diehard, psychotic Bills fan. First live game I attended was oj's rookie year at the rockpile. 

 

 

I think there is merit in the "take shots" approach. As you say that has been the Green Bay way, it has been the Pittsburgh way too as @FireChans referred to above. Partly why to me it was somewhat negligent in the 4 years we had Diggs and Davis together for our highest draft investment to be two 5th rounders (Shakir and Shorter). 

[Mr. WEO]

9 hours ago, Beck Water said:

 

I agree with your overall point that Beane has not given the WR position its propers.

 

However, 2022 started the season with Diggs, Davis, Crowder, McKenzie, Khalil Shakir as the developmental rookie, and Jake Kumerow as the ST guy/backup X

 

By the end of the season, it was Diggs, Davis, McKenzie, Shakir, with Kumerow and Crowder both on IR and guys getting elevated off the practice squad.  Tanner Gentry was seeing meaningful snaps.

 

Now Beane's roster handling can 100% be justly criticized - Hodgins looked more promising than the other PS guys, and Beane, short on healthy CBs, exposed him to waivers knowing his buddy Joe Schoen with the Giants was desperate for WR at that point and would likely snap up a WR he'd helped to scout and draft.

 

So let's understand the signing of Brown and then Beasley to our PS in context, for what it was - signing some backup depth guys to be active on game day in case of injury to the starters, who remained Diggs, Davis, McKenzie, and Shakir.  Viewed in that light, they knew the playbook and Josh had familiarity with them, so it wasn't a Bad Thing and arguably a better thing than just elevating randoms like Dezmon Patmon or Keesean Johnson off PS.

 

If you want to criticize Beane's handling of the WR position from 2022 on, criticize the line-up that started the season - the thought that Davis was ready for an expanded role as the #2 instead of the backup platooning with Brown and then with Sanders; the thought that McKenzie was able to step into being a full time slot.

 

 

 

The obvious point is that Beane and McD create the WR room.  If they find themselves hiring old timers back mid season for depth, then there's a problem with the WR room...

[beacon]

Thanks for the reply gunner. You and a couple other contributors really are a great read. I appreciate your guys insight. The bills have not made receivers a priority for several years. I'm thinking more teams will go the gb/pitt route. When I watch college ball I see so many players on multiple teams that would look good for the bills. They're being coached up from youth ball on up to fit the pro game. 

[FireChans]

12 hours ago, Magox said:

You know what the Chiefs and Patriots, arguably the two most dominant football dynasties of the 2000's have had in common?   They won most of their championships without top tier WR's.   

 

The Patriots best wideouts in their Superbowl dynasty wins was probably Julian Edelman.  What followed him was very meh, but they did have a great tight end in Gronk.

 

The Chiefs, aside from the one year they had Tyreek, the past two Super bowls was JuJu Smith and a rookie Rasheed Rice.   They also have had a not too shabby TE in Kelce.

 

This clearly proves that it's not necessary to have dominant receivers to win.  You just need smart, heady guys who can make catches and to have a bigtime elite QB who can make the right decisions when it counts most.   

I think this proves if you are going to have crummy WR’s you better have a top 2 TE in NFL history and a top 2 QB in NFL history and a top 2 coach in NFL history.

 

probably not a strategy I’d try to replicate.

[HappyDays]

5 hours ago, Beck Water said:

Well put.

 

@HappyDays, where did you find the stats about man vs zone coverage %?

 

 

[Big Blitz]

6 hours ago, Beck Water said:

 

With respect, I think you're thinking may be a bit off in several regards.

 

I did a post before the draft where I looked at the number of WR drafted in early rounds and where the most successful WRs were selected.

It's definitely not always "the top 2 or 3 WR taken turn out to be the best".  

 

So yeah, you're right, out of 7 1st round WR probably only 2 or 3 will be quality NFL players, but which 2 or 3?  That's why teams take shots.

 

And no, in terms of % of draft picks who succeed, teams don't have "as good a chance to hit" as they would on the 7th WR drafted in round 1.  Statistically it's something like 25-30% success at the bottom of the 1st/top of the 2nd round, falls to more like 20% in rd 3 and by rd 5 it's more like 10-15%.

 

Right I agree with you - you aren’t likely to hit in rounds 5,6, or 7. 
 

My point was simply about weighing reaching on say the WR 5 or 6 in round 1 or taking another position where the “top” 2 or 3 are still there.   

[GunnerBill]

2 minutes ago, Big Blitz said:

 

Right I agree with you - you aren’t likely to hit in rounds 5,6, or 7. 
 

My point was simply about weighing reaching on say the WR 5 or 6 in round 1 or taking another position where the “top” 2 or 3 are still there.   

 

What if WR6 is just a better player than S2 or DE3 though? 

[FireChans]

2 minutes ago, HappyDays said:

 

 

The two seasons with our worst WR groups saw the most man coverage. 
 

In fact, it’s an indictment on our weapons for the past FIVE years that we were a top 5 team in facing man. There goes the “Diggs/Davis were good enough” argument. They were “good enough” until Sneed put Diggs over his knee and spanked him in the playoffs.

[Watkins101]

2 hours ago, beacon said:

I think it all comes down to $$$$. Cap is 250mil. Say 45m for QB, 35m for elite wr, 30m for edge and 30m for left tackle. 140m for 4 positions. 110m left over. College football is loaded with all kinds of receivers. I lean towards Green Bays approach. Draft a couple each year and unless you have an outright superstar stud, just churn thru them. An elite QB will find them. They have one in Allen. Great topic Shaw. Can't wait to see how Allen/Brady respond this season. Seems like all the talking heads have the Bills imploding, maybe it's justified. I don't think so but I am a diehard, psychotic Bills fan. First live game I attended was oj's rookie year at the rockpile. 

 

Except 0 LTs in the NFL make 30 million, the most expensive is at 25, and only 5 make 20 or more. There’s 1 DE that makes 30 or more, and only 12 that break 20. Wr is closer, 3 make 30+, and 18 make 20 or more. No team is spending anywhere near that kinda money on 4 players.