THE ROCKPILE REVIEW - Receivers are a Dime a Dozen

[Einstein's Dog]

12 minutes ago, oldmanfan said:

His worst year.  By a lot.  Because of one theoretical player.

Because the downgrade at such an important position is so large.  WR1 in particular. 

 

You can't seriously tell me you're replacing Diggs with a rookie or an $8M FA Wash WR2/3.  It is such a downgrade, that yes, if significantly affects my entire evaluation of Beane's off-season work.

 

And I like Beane, I have thought he was one of the best in the business.  The one additional WR keeps him in that realm.  That's why I think it is going to happen.

[Gunsgoodtime]

1 hour ago, nucci said:

So now RBs and WRs are a dime a dozen?

Yes when it fits the current narrative on TBD 🤣

[FireChans]

1 minute ago, Mr. WEO said:

 

 

 Diggs/Brown/Beasley was essentially 1 year (2020)---and Brown was already on his way to a quick demise.  Beasley hung on for another season then he was toast.

 

Then, in a truly bizarre act of desperation (and emblematic of the way he has abused the WR position since he rolled into town, Beane re-signed the inanimate corpses of Brown and Beasley in 2022!  The outcome was predictably sad---but that was the best idea Beane could come up with.

 

Going into this draft, Beane had one drafted WR on this roster--second year Shakir.  Now he's drafted another likely project guy and signed a bunch of lower tier vets (again).  

 

There's no logic to his handling of this position since he's been here.

You're missing the 2017/2018 crew too.

 

Zay Day, Deonte Thompson, Golden Corral Benjamin, Andre Holmes (I think he preceded BB), Jordan Matthews, Robert Foster.

 

We tried to dumpster dive committee WR before. All it got us was a bottom 10 offense in back to back seasons.

 

2020 Beane was the outlier.

[billsfan89]

10 hours ago, The All-Pro-Knox Gallery said:

We are pretty due to hit on a star receiver draft pick.

 

2013 - Woods (2nd round)

2008 - Stevie (7th)

2004 - Lee Evans (1st)

1996 - Moulds (1st)

It will happen any year now.

 

Sammy Watkins and Gabe Davis are probably the best WR's drafted since 2013. I do think this team made a great hit on Shakir, it took him a year to cook and develop but Shakir reminds me a lot of Robert Woods. Both Woods and Shakir are about 6 feet tall. Woods is a half inch taller and has longer arms but Shakir is faster having run a 4.43 40 compared to Woods 4.51 40 time. Woods was a more "blue chip" prospect as he was a 2nd round pick who was projected to go there. Shakir was a a solid 3rd/4th round prospect who fell to the first pick of round 5. The short arms are the only thing that have me concerned as to if Shakir can be a consistent outside WR but he at worst is going to be a very good slot WR.

[Shaw66]

7 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

If this is true and there are so many grrat receivers why haven't the Bills got anyone who has ever sniffed 1,000 yards on their roster?

Because the model that is emerging depends on a couple of things the Bills haven't had:

 

A creative passing scheme.   It's why so many people here have argued for an offensive head coach.  Shanahan, McVay, Reid, and the guy in Green Bay, all get it and all are doing it.  If the guy is your head coach, he isn't going to get old or get injured.  You can have him for 20 years, and he just keeps cycling through receivers.   Dorsey clearly wasn't that guy.   I think the Bills think Brady is, and one of the signs is that they seem to have been anxious to get Samuel, a Brady protege.  

 

The Bills were invested in the old model - that's why they got Diggs.  The wanted a stud #1 and thought they had one.   I have no hard evidence of this, but I've wondered whether Brady began implementing this approach last season and that is what led to Diggs's decline and emotional funk.  Diggs thinks of himself as a stud #1, and Brady may have been asking him to be a yardage collector along with Shakir and Kincaid.  

 

The other thing you need is a QB smart enough to execute the scheme.  I think that's Allen, but the scheme requires supreme discipline, and that hasn't always been Allen's forte.  

 

I think the Bills are trying to get on the wave  after the innovators, but still early. 

[chris heff]

3 minutes ago, Einstein's Dog said:

Because the downgrade at such an important position is so large.  WR1 in particular. 

 

You can't seriously tell me you're replacing Diggs with a rookie or an $8M FA Wash WR2/3.  It is such a downgrade, that yes, if significantly affects my entire evaluation of Beane's off-season work.

 

And I like Beane, I have thought he was one of the best in the business.  The one additional WR keeps him in that realm.  That's why I think it is going to happen.

Diggs was mediocre to downright invisible in multiple games for two seasons, he was a cancer in the locker room. He did the same thing in Minnesota. Diggs had to go. It’s not so easy to go out and get a veteran WR1. 

[Mat68]

19 hours ago, Shaw66 said:

Bills fans have spent the first five months of 2024 talking about receivers: Whom the Bills have and whom they should get.  The longer I’ve listened to that discussion, the more I’ve come to the conclusion that fans haven’t really internalized what’s happening in pro football.

 

In short, I think that receivers are following in the footsteps of their cousins, the running backs.  Fans, and the New York Giants, were late to realize that in terms of team performance, there isn’t much difference between having a great running back and having a really good one.  And you almost always can find a really good one.  There’s always a Singletary, a Cook, a Pacheco, or someone else.  In earlier eras, if you had a Jim Brown or an Earl Campbell or a Barry Sanders, you were a contender.   Not now.  Now, you can have a Derrick Henry and, well, you have some great highlights, but highlights don’t get it done any more. 

 

Why did that happen to running backs?  Two reasons:  First, young players keep closing the gap between what the great players can do and what the next level of really good players can do.  They learn the moves of the great players, and they condition themselves to be nearly as strong and as powerful.  Second, the defenses have matured – the players are bigger, stronger, faster, so that a guy with Jim-Brown talent now finds a defense full of big, strong, fast defenders, and the coaches have schemed their defenses in ways that allow their big, strong, fast defenders to close gaps and gang tackle in ways that just weren’t done in earlier generations.  Maybe some 250-pound guy who runs like LaDainian Tomlinson will come along, but that’s unlikely.

 

(As an aside, the same thing is happening in the NBA.   In less than ten years, the league has filled up with guys who shoot threes like Steph Curry, guys who are bigger, stronger, and quicker than Steph.  And the defenses have gotten smarter.  The Warriors of five years ago would be good today, but not dominant in the way they were.

 

(And, by the way, there’s a whole generation of pro golfers who have caught up to the greatness of the early Tiger Woods.  They don’t stand out like Tiger because, well, there are a lot of them.)

 

And now we see it happening to receivers.  Again, the difference between truly great and very good has gotten smaller, the number of very good receivers has increased.  It’s happened for the same reasons that it happened to running backs.  Receivers have gotten about as big and fast as they are going to get.  The difference in speed between a 4.3 guy and a 4.4 or even 4.5 guy just isn’t very important – 4.5 is plenty fast enough.  Kids in high school practice catching balls one-handed, practice tucking the ball away after the catch, etc.   By the time receivers have gotten out of college, a lot of them have speed, route-running technique, and catching skills that rival what some of the best NFL players had ten years ago.  In other words, it’s become almost impossible to get better physically in a way that makes any one receiver a dominant player. 

 

In addition to the younger receivers closing the talent gap, the defenders and the defenses they run have improved, too, for the express purpose of stopping the physically dominant receivers.  If you want to win in the NFL, you simply cannot let one player get 150+ yards against you, rushing or receiving, so you create defenses to stop them.  You shadow running backs, you double cover receivers, and then you develop nuanced variations off your defenses to slow down the opponent’s star player.  Quickly, other teams adopt your ideas.   The result is that even the very best running backs and receivers are not stringing 150-yard games, back to back to back, all season long.  Yes, every once in a while a Tyreek Hill comes along, a physical freak, and he does string great games for a while, but it’s just a matter of time before teams adjust. 

 

What about all the great young receivers out there?   Well, I think there’s an important distinction to be made between great receivers and great production.  A guy like Julian Edelman was not a great receiver, in the classic Hall of Fame sense.  He had great production because of the circumstances he was in, and because he was the right guy to take advantage of those circumstanes.  Cooper Kupp is another.  Amon-Ra St. Brown is another.  These guys are all over the league, guys with excellent speed, very good ball skills, and brains.  They have great production, but it isn’t so much that they create the production – they just fit the scheme and get production because they have the skill to take advantage of the opportunities that their offenses create. 

 

I’m not saying those guys aren’t good football players.   What I’m saying is that they are the Pachecos and Cooks and Singletarys of the receiving world.  What I’m saying is that teams are discovering that the physical difference between OBJ and St. Brown does not translate into an important difference in production on the field, just like the difference between Saquon Barkley and Pacheco. 

 

What about the true studs, the OBJs and the DHops of the world?  The guys who actually create their production?  Well, both of those guys came to greatness on their original teams, were true sensations and great weapons, and then were somewhat surprisingly dealt to other teams, where they never recovered their initial luster.  Now they’ve been reduced to hired guns that teams hope can somehow reclaim their greatness or at least be reliable 4th receivers.

 

The bottom line is, I think, that the game has moved on from the days when the ideal was to have a true stud skill player on offense (other than your QB).  If you had a true stud, you gave him the ball every time you could.  In fact, teams have discovered that having a guy who is so good that he demands the ball is a negative, not a positive.  When you have a Derrick Henry or an OBJ, they’re only useful if you give them the ball a lot, and that limits your offense.  Having a guy like Stefon Diggs, who is prone to sulking if he doesn’t get a catch in your first series, is a liability. 

 

The Bills certainly seem to have adopted this thinking. 

 

 

GO BILLS!!!

 

The Rockpile Review is written to share the passion we have for the Buffalo Bills. That passion was born in the Rockpile; its parents were everyday people of western New York who translated their dedication to a full day’s hard work and simple pleasures into love for a pro football team.

 

 

It is where football is trending.  Last 4 drafts have been the “deepest” wr draft until the next one.  Wr are becoming as easy to find as Rbs.  Diggs prolific career in Buffalo never produced playoff success.  
Moving to a balanced attack with a run game that has to be respected fueled the late season run.  Moving to a balanced passing attack also contributed to this.  Having Diggs would have been great.  However, listening to his interviews after the season he is tone deaf on why his usage changed.  He was getting force fed targets and the offense was inefficient.  Let Allen read the defense and take whats available.  Shoehorning targets for this player or that isn't effective.  

[oldmanfan]

14 minutes ago, Einstein's Dog said:

Because the downgrade at such an important position is so large.  WR1 in particular. 

 

You can't seriously tell me you're replacing Diggs with a rookie or an $8M FA Wash WR2/3.  It is such a downgrade, that yes, if significantly affects my entire evaluation of Beane's off-season work.

 

And I like Beane, I have thought he was one of the best in the business.  The one additional WR keeps him in that realm.  That's why I think it is going to happen.

I can seriously think that because I respect guys like Greg Cosell, who examine the game way more than I do.  And they say Diggs was not an elite (or whatever you want to say is a “#1# WR ) last year.  You are so fixated on one thing you’re not seeing the forest for the trees.

 

We have a star QB.  They have added linemen to protect him the past several years.  They added a good RB in Cook, they added Kincaid.  They added Coleman and Samuel this year and Shakir has come along.  They did this while not overpaying for Davis as an FA, and moving a guy in Diggs who is getting older and according again to folks whose opinion I respect fell off last year.  I recall Bill Walsh saying it’s better to get rid of a guy a year too early than a year too late.  That applies to Diggs in my opinion.  And while I have no evidence, I suspect Josh knew about it and wanted the headache of Diggs gone.

 

If Beane decides he wants to add a guy you are beating the drum for fine by me.  But everything he has said indicates he won’t.  And yes I think Shakir can be as good as Diggs was last year.  Or Samuel.  And if a guy like Davis gives us a better run game, or the second round safety is a stud, or  the DE from Troy gives us an edge rusher then this draft will be a good one.

 

On an NFL team defining good or bad based on one player applies to only one position:  QB.  And we have one of the best.

Edited May 16 by oldmanfan

[Einstein's Dog]

1 minute ago, chris heff said:

Diggs was mediocre to downright invisible in multiple games for two seasons, he was a cancer in the locker room. He did the same thing in Minnesota. Diggs had to go. It’s not so easy to go out and get a veteran WR1. 

I don't have a problem with moving Diggs- unless the plan was to replace him with C Samuel, then that is a terrible plan.

 

And just because Diggs wasn't good down the stretch doesn't mean you replace them with someone who isn't good.  You try to upgrade.

 

It may not be easy to get a good veteran WR, but that is Beane's job!  The available WRs are not publicly posted but seems like they would be out there if the offer is right.  That's why I'm thinking post June 1st something happens.

[Mr. WEO]

23 minutes ago, FireChans said:

You're missing the 2017/2018 crew too.

 

Zay Day, Deonte Thompson, Golden Corral Benjamin, Andre Holmes (I think he preceded BB), Jordan Matthews, Robert Foster.

 

We tried to dumpster dive committee WR before. All it got us was a bottom 10 offense in back to back seasons.

 

2020 Beane was the outlier.

 

I've covered all those bums in multiple previous posts.  Beane is lost at WR.

[oldmanfan]

8 minutes ago, Einstein's Dog said:

I don't have a problem with moving Diggs- unless the plan was to replace him with C Samuel, then that is a terrible plan.

 

And just because Diggs wasn't good down the stretch doesn't mean you replace them with someone who isn't good.  You try to upgrade.

 

It may not be easy to get a good veteran WR, but that is Beane's job!  The available WRs are not publicly posted but seems like they would be out there if the offer is right.  That's why I'm thinking post June 1st something happens.

Beane’s job is to work with McD and his staff to put together a championship team.  His job is not to appease fan’s desires for a single player.

 

Again if he wants to add another WR fine by me.  But he has already added a number of them and expects the competition to yield the right guys.

[PrimeTime101]

7 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

If this is true and there are so many great receivers why haven't the Bills got anyone who has ever sniffed 1,000 yards on their roster?

I personally have a hard time disagreeing with Shaw 98% of this time. But I believe saying The WR's are a dime a dozen, turning into what the situation is with great RB's in the league... is so wrong on every level. The only thing that has changed is the gap between the #2 WR and the #3 WR and the fact that there are just way way more #2 WR's in this league now then ever before. 

 

They are coming out of college Bigger (better body control) or faster. Better rout runners are coming out of College the last 3 years compared to the prior 5. That being said the gap between a high end #1 WR in this league and a #2 is not closing.

 

There is proof that Josh Allen makes WR's better

------------Before JA--with JA Best years in yards

Beasley -----833-----967

Diggs -----1100-----1500

 

my point? what QB has these players we have gotten played for in the past. 

[chris heff]

10 minutes ago, Einstein's Dog said:

I don't have a problem with moving Diggs- unless the plan was to replace him with C Samuel, then that is a terrible plan.

 

And just because Diggs wasn't good down the stretch doesn't mean you replace them with someone who isn't good.  You try to upgrade.

 

It may not be easy to get a good veteran WR, but that is Beane's job!  The available WRs are not publicly posted but seems like they would be out there if the offer is right.  That's why I'm thinking post June 1st something happens.

Fair enough, but I think you’re discounting Samuel. He is the most interesting WR signing, the only legitimate QB he ever played with is Newton at the end of his career, others were Kyle Allen, Taylor Heinicke and Sam Howell. He has been on bad teams with bad QBs.

[Mat68]

38 minutes ago, Einstein's Dog said:

The Bills WR room has been a work in progress for years, but generally I've been able to see the logic in it.  It was a good back in the Diggs/Brown/Beasley day, then seemed rational to put in Sanders.  Next year it seemed logical to promote G Davis to a bigger role - I was on board with that (although it didn't work).

 

I bought in to the thought that Beasley wasn't physically gifted and his production was scheme related and replaceable with McKenzie/Crowder. 

 

This year there the WR room is totally illogical - pathetic - Unless a trade for a good WR takes place.  That's why I think it will happen.  With a trade, logically you can see Diggs replaced by the new trade, G Davis replaced by a combo of C Samuel/K Coleman, Shakir at #3.  I can be on board with that.  If the trade doesn't happen, which most people seem to think, this is IMO Beane's worst year - by a lot.

I see it as take Diggs 160 targets split between Samuel and Shakir.  Most of Davis to Coleman.  The remainder of targets to MVS, Hollins and whoever else makes the roster.  Kincaid and Cook likely see more too.  I think Kincaid is the only guy with over 100 targets.  Shakir, Samuel and Coleman will relatively have a similar share.  Not one wr is replacing Diggs.  I think Shakir is highly thought of in the organization and Samuel could have a career year playing with far and away his best qb.  It’s not the greatest show on turf. It also is not the 2018 wr core.  I think its better than 2019 and with Kincaid and Cook make it an above average group. 

[Einstein's Dog]

2 minutes ago, chris heff said:

Fair enough, but I think you’re discounting Samuel. He is the most interesting WR signing, the only legitimate QB he ever played with is Newton at the end of his career, others were Kyle Allen, Taylor Heinicke and Sam Howell. He has been on bad teams with bad QBs.

I like the Samuel pick in the context of having Samuel and K Coleman take over the expected role of G Davis.  I can see that being an improvement.   And Samuel could also get snaps for Shakir.

 

The one addition makes a huge difference IMO.  It significantly changes my entire evaluation of Beane's off-season moves.

[Buffalo Junction]

48 minutes ago, FireChans said:

So much so that they gave Diggs a massive extension two years ago and drafted a WR with their first pick this offseason?

 

A team you could argue has adopted the "stable of good WR's" strategy is the current Packers regime or the Big Ben Steelers who drafted a day 2 pick WR every other year.

 

Not the Bills.

The Packers have really been taking that approach since the 90’s; only Javon Walker in the last 35 years. Going from Favre to Rodgers they basically prioritized offensive tackles and defenders in the first round. They’ve perfected the art of nailing their day 2 wr picks over that timeframe. It would be interesting to hone in on how they scout these guys. The Steelers and Chiefs seem to take chances on guys who drop due to character concerns, while the Packers seem to avoid that and come out with - mostly - better talent.

It’ll be interesting to see if Beane goes this route moving forward, or if this stable of cheaper WRs is a one off for a cap strapped year. 

[Einstein's Dog]

13 minutes ago, Mat68 said:

I see it as take Diggs 160 targets split between Samuel and Shakir.  Most of Davis to Coleman.  The remainder of targets to MVS, Hollins and whoever else makes the roster.  Kincaid and Cook likely see more too.  I think Kincaid is the only guy with over 100 targets.  Shakir, Samuel and Coleman will relatively have a similar share.  Not one wr is replacing Diggs.  I think Shakir is highly thought of in the organization and Samuel could have a career year playing with far and away his best qb.  It’s not the greatest show on turf. It also is not the 2018 wr core.  I think its better than 2019 and with Kincaid and Cook make it an above average group. 

It's the MVS, Hollins part that I do not want to see.  For all the talk about interchangeable WRs - it does not include those dregs.

 

Don't need someone to take the volume of Diggs, but instead someone who is good, who helps split the overall target share and who would force the defenses to strategize against, which in turn makes the targets to the remaining players easier.

 

If we get a Metcalf/Aiyuk/D Adams/Dhop the whole defensive strategy changes and Samuel/Shakir/Kincaid group will be free to eat underneath.

[GunnerBill]

40 minutes ago, Shaw66 said:

Because the model that is emerging depends on a couple of things the Bills haven't had:

 

A creative passing scheme.   It's why so many people here have argued for an offensive head coach.  Shanahan, McVay, Reid, and the guy in Green Bay, all get it and all are doing it.  If the guy is your head coach, he isn't going to get old or get injured.  You can have him for 20 years, and he just keeps cycling through receivers.   Dorsey clearly wasn't that guy.   I think the Bills think Brady is, and one of the signs is that they seem to have been anxious to get Samuel, a Brady protege.  

 

The Bills were invested in the old model - that's why they got Diggs.  The wanted a stud #1 and thought they had one.   I have no hard evidence of this, but I've wondered whether Brady began implementing this approach last season and that is what led to Diggs's decline and emotional funk.  Diggs thinks of himself as a stud #1, and Brady may have been asking him to be a yardage collector along with Shakir and Kincaid.  

 

The other thing you need is a QB smart enough to execute the scheme.  I think that's Allen, but the scheme requires supreme discipline, and that hasn't always been Allen's forte.  

 

I think the Bills are trying to get on the wave  after the innovators, but still early. 

 

Hmm. If Green Bay's success is about a creative passing scheme why didn't it work with Alan Lazard and the corpse of Randall Cobb's career? Nah. It is about WR talent. The Packers have drafted some young guys outside of round 1 but have done so in bulk and had some hits. The Chiefs wide receiver room was the weakness of the team last year and while you can say they won a Superbowl so it justifies the decisions they took but Reid immediately went out and signed a former 1st round receiver in FA and then drafted a 1st round receiver.

 

It is an interesting theory but I'm sorry I just don't buy it. The Bills receiver room doesn't look like this because the Bills have cottoned on to some league wide trend. It looks like this because they have criminally under prioritised the drafting of wide receivers. Since Beane has been GM only Tampa Bay (who have had Evans and Godwin the whole time) have prioritised the position less in the draft. 31st out of 32 teams. That is why our WR room now is a rookie, a decent slot guy who came on last year and other people's cast offs. 

[FireChans]

12 minutes ago, Buffalo Junction said:

The Packers have really been taking that approach since the 90’s; only Javon Walker in the last 35 years. Going from Favre to Rodgers they basically prioritized offensive tackles and defenders in the first round. They’ve perfected the art of nailing their day 2 wr picks over that timeframe. It would be interesting to hone in on how they scout these guys. The Steelers and Chiefs seem to take chances on guys who drop due to character concerns, while the Packers seem to avoid that and come out with - mostly - better talent.

It’ll be interesting to see if Beane goes this route moving forward, or if this stable of cheaper WRs is a one off for a cap strapped year. 

I would have no problem with Beane living off the rotation of day 2/3 WR's every year.

 

I think it's a GREAT strategy.

 

The Steelers since 2009:

 

3rd Mike Wallace

3rd Sanders

6th AB

3rd Wheaton

4th Marty Bryant

3rd Sammie Coates

2nd JuJu

2nd James Washington

3rd Diontae Johnson

2nd Chase Claypool

2nd George Pickens

 

 

With WR contracts exploding even more today compared to those days, it makes sense to live off rookie deals that are gonna outplay their talent with an elite QB and get overpaid (read: Gabe Davis).

 

This is how the Steelers prolonged Big Ben's career. They kept surrounding him with a stable.  Of course, they also got lucky and hit on a HoF talent. But you can't hit on a HoFer without drafting them.

 

IMO, I don't think Beane plans to follow this strategy. If he was, the time to get a jump start was this draft. But if he does go for the revolving door of WR, I'm 100% on board over trading for an Aiyuk and paying him $30M.

 

Of course, this flies in the face of the OP stating that WR's are the new RB's.  It's actually completely the opposite, but there's a good strategy to help us in a zero sum league.

Edited May 16 by FireChans

[GoBills808]

8 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

If this is true and there are so many grrat receivers why haven't the Bills got anyone who has ever sniffed 1,000 yards on their roster?

because this is an answer in search of a question

 

big 'the Bills did it so it must be right' energy