THE ROCKPILE REVIEW - Receivers are a Dime a Dozen

[Shaw66]

Bills fans have spent the first five months of 2024 talking about receivers: Whom the Bills have and whom they should get.  The longer I’ve listened to that discussion, the more I’ve come to the conclusion that fans haven’t really internalized what’s happening in pro football.

 

In short, I think that receivers are following in the footsteps of their cousins, the running backs.  Fans, and the New York Giants, were late to realize that in terms of team performance, there isn’t much difference between having a great running back and having a really good one.  And you almost always can find a really good one.  There’s always a Singletary, a Cook, a Pacheco, or someone else.  In earlier eras, if you had a Jim Brown or an Earl Campbell or a Barry Sanders, you were a contender.   Not now.  Now, you can have a Derrick Henry and, well, you have some great highlights, but highlights don’t get it done any more. 

 

Why did that happen to running backs?  Two reasons:  First, young players keep closing the gap between what the great players can do and what the next level of really good players can do.  They learn the moves of the great players, and they condition themselves to be nearly as strong and as powerful.  Second, the defenses have matured – the players are bigger, stronger, faster, so that a guy with Jim-Brown talent now finds a defense full of big, strong, fast defenders, and the coaches have schemed their defenses in ways that allow their big, strong, fast defenders to close gaps and gang tackle in ways that just weren’t done in earlier generations.  Maybe some 250-pound guy who runs like LaDainian Tomlinson will come along, but that’s unlikely.

 

(As an aside, the same thing is happening in the NBA.   In less than ten years, the league has filled up with guys who shoot threes like Steph Curry, guys who are bigger, stronger, and quicker than Steph.  And the defenses have gotten smarter.  The Warriors of five years ago would be good today, but not dominant in the way they were.

 

(And, by the way, there’s a whole generation of pro golfers who have caught up to the greatness of the early Tiger Woods.  They don’t stand out like Tiger because, well, there are a lot of them.)

 

And now we see it happening to receivers.  Again, the difference between truly great and very good has gotten smaller, the number of very good receivers has increased.  It’s happened for the same reasons that it happened to running backs.  Receivers have gotten about as big and fast as they are going to get.  The difference in speed between a 4.3 guy and a 4.4 or even 4.5 guy just isn’t very important – 4.5 is plenty fast enough.  Kids in high school practice catching balls one-handed, practice tucking the ball away after the catch, etc.   By the time receivers have gotten out of college, a lot of them have speed, route-running technique, and catching skills that rival what some of the best NFL players had ten years ago.  In other words, it’s become almost impossible to get better physically in a way that makes any one receiver a dominant player. 

 

In addition to the younger receivers closing the talent gap, the defenders and the defenses they run have improved, too, for the express purpose of stopping the physically dominant receivers.  If you want to win in the NFL, you simply cannot let one player get 150+ yards against you, rushing or receiving, so you create defenses to stop them.  You shadow running backs, you double cover receivers, and then you develop nuanced variations off your defenses to slow down the opponent’s star player.  Quickly, other teams adopt your ideas.   The result is that even the very best running backs and receivers are not stringing 150-yard games, back to back to back, all season long.  Yes, every once in a while a Tyreek Hill comes along, a physical freak, and he does string great games for a while, but it’s just a matter of time before teams adjust. 

 

What about all the great young receivers out there?   Well, I think there’s an important distinction to be made between great receivers and great production.  A guy like Julian Edelman was not a great receiver, in the classic Hall of Fame sense.  He had great production because of the circumstances he was in, and because he was the right guy to take advantage of those circumstanes.  Cooper Kupp is another.  Amon-Ra St. Brown is another.  These guys are all over the league, guys with excellent speed, very good ball skills, and brains.  They have great production, but it isn’t so much that they create the production – they just fit the scheme and get production because they have the skill to take advantage of the opportunities that their offenses create. 

 

I’m not saying those guys aren’t good football players.   What I’m saying is that they are the Pachecos and Cooks and Singletarys of the receiving world.  What I’m saying is that teams are discovering that the physical difference between OBJ and St. Brown does not translate into an important difference in production on the field, just like the difference between Saquon Barkley and Pacheco. 

 

What about the true studs, the OBJs and the DHops of the world?  The guys who actually create their production?  Well, both of those guys came to greatness on their original teams, were true sensations and great weapons, and then were somewhat surprisingly dealt to other teams, where they never recovered their initial luster.  Now they’ve been reduced to hired guns that teams hope can somehow reclaim their greatness or at least be reliable 4th receivers.

 

The bottom line is, I think, that the game has moved on from the days when the ideal was to have a true stud skill player on offense (other than your QB).  If you had a true stud, you gave him the ball every time you could.  In fact, teams have discovered that having a guy who is so good that he demands the ball is a negative, not a positive.  When you have a Derrick Henry or an OBJ, they’re only useful if you give them the ball a lot, and that limits your offense.  Having a guy like Stefon Diggs, who is prone to sulking if he doesn’t get a catch in your first series, is a liability. 

 

The Bills certainly seem to have adopted this thinking. 

 

 

GO BILLS!!!

 

The Rockpile Review is written to share the passion we have for the Buffalo Bills. That passion was born in the Rockpile; its parents were everyday people of western New York who translated their dedication to a full day’s hard work and simple pleasures into love for a pro football team.

 

 

[Nephilim17]

Interesting take calling WRs the new running backs. Not sure if you're 100% correct in implying teams don't need a stud number 1 any more but one thing I like with the model of a very good committee vs an elite WR with an average cast: With the elite guy, if he doesn't get his targets, he can sulk, complain, be a distraction.

With 4 good/very good but no great guys, that's a harder act to pull as each guy is less vital on his own and can be more easily replaced.

People point to Green Bay. And KC seems to buy into that but A) they do have one of the best TEs ever (essentially a WR in the short/itermediate zone) and the best QB and possibly best coach in the game. Plus, a D that was very good.

I hope you're right and Beane is right that we don't need a true number 1. Not sure. But we'll know in about 4 months.

[Augie]

I agree times are changing, and the best athlete now wants to be QB or WR, not RB. But a guy who demands frequent double teams makes it easier for everyone else. 

[mushypeaches]

Shaw - I’ve been thinking about this a lot too - and you said it way more profoundly than I could have

 

But paying big $$ for a veteran wide receiver seems to becoming more and more inefficient from a team building perspective.  I like that the Bills seem to be a little ahead of the curve

 

Just wish they had drafted another young guy this year - but that’s a different discussion

[Beast]

If receivers are the new running backs, three wouldn’t have been selected in the top 9 picks of the draft.

[Charles Romes]

DHop was clearly one of the 3 best in the league both before and after leaving the Texans for the cardinals.  Then hit the wall rather quickly at the age 30 mark, as many do. 

[SoonerBillsFan]

24 minutes ago, Shaw66 said:

Bills fans have spent the first five months of 2024 talking about receivers: Whom the Bills have and whom they should get.  The longer I’ve listened to that discussion, the more I’ve come to the conclusion that fans haven’t really internalized what’s happening in pro football.

 

In short, I think that receivers are following in the footsteps of their cousins, the running backs.  Fans, and the New York Giants, were late to realize that in terms of team performance, there isn’t much difference between having a great running back and having a really good one.  And you almost always can find a really good one.  There’s always a Singletary, a Cook, a Pacheco, or someone else.  In earlier eras, if you had a Jim Brown or an Earl Campbell or a Barry Sanders, you were a contender.   Not now.  Now, you can have a Derrick Henry and, well, you have some great highlights, but highlights don’t get it done any more. 

 

Why did that happen to running backs?  Two reasons:  First, young players keep closing the gap between what the great players can do and what the next level of really good players can do.  They learn the moves of the great players, and they condition themselves to be nearly as strong and as powerful.  Second, the defenses have matured – the players are bigger, stronger, faster, so that a guy with Jim-Brown talent now finds a defense full of big, strong, fast defenders, and the coaches have schemed their defenses in ways that allow their big, strong, fast defenders to close gaps and gang tackle in ways that just weren’t done in earlier generations.  Maybe some 250-pound guy who runs like LaDainian Tomlinson will come along, but that’s unlikely.

 

(As an aside, the same thing is happening in the NBA.   In less than ten years, the league has filled up with guys who shoot threes like Steph Curry, guys who are bigger, stronger, and quicker than Steph.  And the defenses have gotten smarter.  The Warriors of five years ago would be good today, but not dominant in the way they were.

 

(And, by the way, there’s a whole generation of pro golfers who have caught up to the greatness of the early Tiger Woods.  They don’t stand out like Tiger because, well, there are a lot of them.)

 

And now we see it happening to receivers.  Again, the difference between truly great and very good has gotten smaller, the number of very good receivers has increased.  It’s happened for the same reasons that it happened to running backs.  Receivers have gotten about as big and fast as they are going to get.  The difference in speed between a 4.3 guy and a 4.4 or even 4.5 guy just isn’t very important – 4.5 is plenty fast enough.  Kids in high school practice catching balls one-handed, practice tucking the ball away after the catch, etc.   By the time receivers have gotten out of college, a lot of them have speed, route-running technique, and catching skills that rival what some of the best NFL players had ten years ago.  In other words, it’s become almost impossible to get better physically in a way that makes any one receiver a dominant player. 

 

In addition to the younger receivers closing the talent gap, the defenders and the defenses they run have improved, too, for the express purpose of stopping the physically dominant receivers.  If you want to win in the NFL, you simply cannot let one player get 150+ yards against you, rushing or receiving, so you create defenses to stop them.  You shadow running backs, you double cover receivers, and then you develop nuanced variations off your defenses to slow down the opponent’s star player.  Quickly, other teams adopt your ideas.   The result is that even the very best running backs and receivers are not stringing 150-yard games, back to back to back, all season long.  Yes, every once in a while a Tyreek Hill comes along, a physical freak, and he does string great games for a while, but it’s just a matter of time before teams adjust. 

 

What about all the great young receivers out there?   Well, I think there’s an important distinction to be made between great receivers and great production.  A guy like Julian Edelman was not a great receiver, in the classic Hall of Fame sense.  He had great production because of the circumstances he was in, and because he was the right guy to take advantage of those circumstanes.  Cooper Kupp is another.  Amon-Ra St. Brown is another.  These guys are all over the league, guys with excellent speed, very good ball skills, and brains.  They have great production, but it isn’t so much that they create the production – they just fit the scheme and get production because they have the skill to take advantage of the opportunities that their offenses create. 

 

I’m not saying those guys aren’t good football players.   What I’m saying is that they are the Pachecos and Cooks and Singletarys of the receiving world.  What I’m saying is that teams are discovering that the physical difference between OBJ and St. Brown does not translate into an important difference in production on the field, just like the difference between Saquon Barkley and Pacheco. 

 

What about the true studs, the OBJs and the DHops of the world?  The guys who actually create their production?  Well, both of those guys came to greatness on their original teams, were true sensations and great weapons, and then were somewhat surprisingly dealt to other teams, where they never recovered their initial luster.  Now they’ve been reduced to hired guns that teams hope can somehow reclaim their greatness or at least be reliable 4th receivers.

 

The bottom line is, I think, that the game has moved on from the days when the ideal was to have a true stud skill player on offense (other than your QB).  If you had a true stud, you gave him the ball every time you could.  In fact, teams have discovered that having a guy who is so good that he demands the ball is a negative, not a positive.  When you have a Derrick Henry or an OBJ, they’re only useful if you give them the ball a lot, and that limits your offense.  Having a guy like Stefon Diggs, who is prone to sulking if he doesn’t get a catch in your first series, is a liability. 

 

The Bills certainly seem to have adopted this thinking. 

 

 

GO BILLS!!!

 

The Rockpile Review is written to share the passion we have for the Buffalo Bills. That passion was born in the Rockpile; its parents were everyday people of western New York who translated their dedication to a full day’s hard work and simple pleasures into love for a pro football team.

 

 

Thank you.  I feel the Bills know this and we will see a handful of 700-800 yard seasons out of our receivers this year.  ( including TE's and RB's) amd not a 1000 yard + guy.

 

Now I get it blows the minds of those who feel it's a must, or the Madden/ Fantasy football crew.  But if Allen puts up 4000 yards between 7-8 guys instead of 3-4... it's still 4000 yards.

6 minutes ago, Beast said:

If receivers are the new running backs, three wouldn’t have been selected in the top 9 picks of the draft.

They have low end QB deals and look at where they are drafting. They draft that low because their decision making hasn't been the best.

 

And why not be part of getting ahead of the curve?  KC and GB, have started doing this path already.

[Steve Billieve]

I wholeheartedly agree. Just watching that recent Allen clip of mostly touchdowns, I mean he's throwing to everyone. How many wr has this board been high on that were mid at best? Every two years there's another future superstar WR that we absolutely must re-sign only for them to be average at best.

[Logic]

Because of the sheer amount of good WRs coming into the league now due to all the 7-on-7 camps, wide open offenses in college, etc, I too have thought that perhaps they may go the way of running backs -- eventually.

The two counter arguments to the notion that they've ALREADY gone the way of running backs:

1.) They're still drafted highly at a pretty consistent rate. Whereas running backs only tend to go in the 1st any more if they're really rare and exceptional (like Bijan Robinson), most drafts see three+ receivers going in the 1st round. This year saw three go in the top ten picks alone! There's no way that would happen in 2024 and beyond with running backs.

2.) They really good ones are still paid huge money. There are currently 6 WRs making more than $25million per year, and there are 23 making more than $15million a year. By contrast, there is currently just one RB (Christian McCaffrey) making more than $15million per year, and he functions almost as much as a receiver as he does as a running back.

So while I agree with the direction that wide receivers seem to be heading, and while I think they'll get there eventually, I feel like the draft capital and salary cap money being spent on receivers currently indicates that they're not quite "a dime a dozen" just yet, because teams are still paying top dollar (or top draft pick) for the very good ones.

[Steve Billieve]

5 minutes ago, Logic said:

Because of the sheer amount of good WRs coming into the league now due to all the 7-on-7 camps, wide open offenses in college, etc, I too have thought that perhaps they may go the way of running backs -- eventually.

The two counter arguments to the notion that they've ALREADY gone the way of running backs:

1.) They're still drafted highly at a pretty consistent rate. Whereas running backs only tend to go in the 1st any more if they're really rare and exceptional (like Bijan Robinson), most drafts see three+ receivers going in the 1st round. This year saw three go in the top ten picks alone! There's no way that would happen in 2024 and beyond with running backs.

2.) They really good ones are still paid huge money. There are currently 6 WRs making more than $25million per year, and there are 23 making more than $15million a year. By contrast, there is currently just one RB (Christian McCaffrey) making more than $15million per year, and he functions almost as much as a receiver as he does as a running back.

So while I agree with the direction that wide receivers seem to be heading, and while I think they'll get there eventually, I feel like the draft capital and salary cap money being spent on receivers currently indicates that they're not quite "a dime a dozen" just yet, because teams are still paying top dollar (or top draft pick) for the very good ones.

Obviously they're highly valued, but I think the idea is that a major shift in philosophy about the position is taking place

[Peace Frog]

Unless you're throwing to a Randy Moss, Travis Kelce, or Ron Gronkowski, then yes, they are a dime a dozen.  QB has always been the most important position, followed by head coach.  Fortunately, we have one of those two.

Edited May 15 by Peace Frog

[Fan in Chicago]

54 minutes ago, Charles Romes said:

DHop was clearly one of the 3 best in the league both before and after leaving the Texans for the cardinals.  Then hit the wall rather quickly at the age 30 mark, as many do. 

Last year, with the Titans, he had 75 catches for 1000+ yards, 7 TDs .

Rumours of his career's demise are premature 

[Don Otreply]

Damn nice write up! 
 

I think Shaw66 hits the nail on the head, not much more I can say, 

 

I suspect every so often there will be an exception to prove the rule, 

[DeepPass]

Loved the post and thought process behind it.  In the very near future all players will receive basically the same pay based on their time in the League and position.  

[JerseyBills]

Respect your opinion and make some great points but explain the NFL Draft then.. 

 

10 WRs were picked before the 1st RB came off the board

 

You could be on to something but there's still a long way to go. 

 

[CaliBills]

2 minutes ago, JerseyBills said:

Respect your opinion and make some great points but explain the NFL Draft then.. 

 

10 WRs were picked before the 1st RB came off the board

 

You could be on to something but there's still a long way to go. 

 

 

Well very seldom do you need more than 1 RB on the field vs mostly needing 3+ receivers on most plays in todays NFL.  Lot of 4 WR sets as well.

 

So yeah I can see why WR talent is taken ahead of RB's since offenses require more WR on most occasions than RBs 

[ngbills]

4 minutes ago, JerseyBills said:

Respect your opinion and make some great points but explain the NFL Draft then.. 

 

10 WRs were picked before the 1st RB came off the board

 

You could be on to something but there's still a long way to go. 

 

Not to mention the $20 and $30 m per contracts we saw in free agency and the fact wr was the most active position. At RB we see guys struggling to get a job while many wr that have done nothing still get shot after shot. I think it’s more teams are hoping to get lucky so they don’t have to pay a guy 30m. 

Edited May 15 by ngbills

[JerseyBills]

6 minutes ago, CaliBills said:

 

Well very seldom do you need more than 1 RB on the field vs mostly needing 3+ receivers on most plays in todays NFL.  Lot of 4 WR sets as well.

 

So yeah I can see why WR talent is taken ahead of RB's since offenses require more WR on most occasions than RBs 

 

5 minutes ago, ngbills said:

Not to mention the $20 and $30 m per contracts we saw in free agency and the fact wr was the most active position. At RB we see guys struggling to get a job while many wr that have done nothing still get shot after shot. I think it’s more teams are hoping to get lucky so they don’t have to pay a guy 30m. 

 

Both great and accurate points!

[LABILLBACKER]

51 minutes ago, Steve Billieve said:

Obviously they're highly valued, but I think the idea is that a major shift in philosophy about the position is taking place

Well, we will find out real fast this season if we need a true #1 or can just distribute the ball to a bunch of WR2/3 types?

[Rocky Landing]

I mean… I suppose….

But why does this read like an optimistic justification to not feel bad about a pedestrian WR corp?