WR Candidates - Who Does Beane Keep?

[PromoTheRobot]

22 hours ago, gjv said:

Perhaps Beane is experimenting with WRer by committee. Similar to RB by committee. He might be thinking that there are so many good WRers coming out each year that it makes more economic sense to have a bunch of one to five-million-dollar receivers, than one at 35 mil and a second at 18 mil.

 

Beane doesn't decide this. McDermott does. Beane sets up the buffet.

[BillsVet]

22 hours ago, Logic said:

I am officially retired from speaking on the matter any further.

I spent 16 days voicing my concerns. People started to turn on me. I was really harshing their mellow. 

So from now on, I'm just gonna stick with 🤐 and hope for the best. 

 

16 days?  That's all?  Some here have been doing it 10, 20 years or more. 

 

It is so much fun telling people what is real instead of making them feel good.  So take those arrows and smile.    

[KingBoots8]

Welp, Quintez Cephus won’t be kept. Just got released to sign Dee Delaney (Safety)

[Buffalo_Stampede]

We hardly knew you Cephus.

[GASabresIUFan]

Once MVS signed their was no reason to gamble on Cephus.  

[Cubanmist 1]

On 5/15/2024 at 1:48 AM, GASabresIUFan said:

Shakir, Samuel, and Coleman have guaranteed roster spots.  So which strand(s) of spaghetti stick to wall (make the roster)? Will the Bills keep 2 or 3 of the strands?  

 

1. Mack Hollins - 1 year $2,600,000 (cap hit 2.48 - Dead Cap -$1.1)

6'4" 221, age 30, 4th rd pikc (118th Philly) in 2017 out of UNC

40 - 4.53, 10 - 1.59

Career - 95 games, 27 starts, 222 Tgt, 131 Rec, 1691 yards, 12.9 yards/c, 59% reception %

Best - 2022 - 17g, 16 starts 94 Tgt, 57 Rec, 690 yards, 12.1 yards/c, 60.6% reception  %

 

2. Marquez Valdes-Scantling - 1 year $1,125,000 (cap hit 1.125 - Dead Cap -$TBD)

6'4" 206, age 29, 5th rd pick (174th) in 2018 out of S Florida.

40 - 4.37, 10 - 1.49

Career - 92 games, 60 starts, 370 Tgt, 186 Rec, 3155 yards, 17 yards/c, 50.3% reception %

Best - 2020 - 16g, 12 starts 63 Tgt, 33 Rec, 690 yards, 20.9 yards/c, 52.4% reception %

 

3. Chase Claypool - 1 year $1,135,000 (cap hit 1.085 - Dead Cap -$25K)

6'4" 238, age 25, 2nd rd pick (49th, Pitt) in 2020 out of ND.

40 - 4.42, 10 - 1.52

Career - 58 games, 32 starts, 314 Tgt, 175 Rec, 2261 yards, 12.9 yards/c, 55.7% reception %

Best - 2020 - 16g, 6 starts 109 Tgt, 62 Rec, 873 yards, 14.1 yards/c, 56.9% reception %

 

4. KJ Hamler - 1 year $1,055,000 (cap hit 1.055 - Dead Cap -0)

5'9" 178, age 24, 2nd rd pick (46th, Den) in 2020 out of Penn St.

40 - 4.36, 

Career - 23 games, 6 starts, 80 Tgt, 42 Rec, 620 yards, 14.8 yards/c, 52.5% reception %

Best - 2020 - 13g, 4 starts 56 Tgt, 30 Rec, 381 yards, 12.7 yards/c, 53.6% reception %

 

5. Quintez Cephus - 1 year $1,055,000 (cap hit $1.055 - Dead Cap -8K)

6'1" 208, age 26, 5th rd pick (166th, Det) in 2020 out of Wisconsin.

40 - 4.73, 10 - 1.59

Career - 22 games, 6 starts, 60 Tgt, 37 Rec, 568 yards, 15.4 yards/c, 61.7% reception %

Best - 2020 - 13g, 2 starts 35 Tgt, 20 Rec, 349 yards, 17.5 yards/c, 61.8% reception %

 

6. Andy Isabella - 1 year $1,133,000 (cap hit 993K - Dead Cap -8K)

5'9" 188, age 27, 2nd rd pick (62nd, AZ) in 2019 out of U Mass.

40 - 4.31, 10 - 1.45

Career - 43 games, 3 starts, 54 Tgt, 33 Rec, 447 yards, 13.5 yards/c, 61.1% reception %

Best - 2020 - 13g, 2 starts 35 Tgt, 21 Rec, 224 yards, 10.7 yards/c, 60% reception %

 

7. Justin Shorter - 3 years $4,163,948 (cap hit $876K - Dead Cap - 243K)

6'4" 229, age 24, 5th rd pick (150 th, Buf) in 2023 out of Florida.

40 - 4.55, 10 - 1.59

 

8. Tyrell Shavers - 2 yr $1,764,000 (cap hit $799.5 - Dead Cap - 9K)

6'4" 211, age 24, UDFA (Buf) in 2023 out of San Diego St.

40 - 4.59, 10 - 1.63

I just noticed that Cephus ran a 4.73 and was the slowest of all of the receivers that you mentioned.

[Warriorspikes51]

Coleman - X
Samuel - Line up anywhere

Shakir - Primary Slot
MVS  - Outside Deep Threat 

Claypool -  Huge IF...but he has the ability in there somewhere to start.  MAYBE he is a changed man & looks good/works in camp 
Hollis - STer and reasonably decent depth WR.  Better than Sherfield. 
Hamler - If he stays healthy, has very good speed and could push for snaps. Has worked very hard on his body. Notably mentioned by Keon multiple times 

Shorter - PS unless / until he proves otherwise
Shavers - Very Tall and was an elite STer in college.  May be a darkhorse to emerge as WR5
Xavier Johnson - PS, Return ability

 

[oldmanfan]

People were all concerned about having a deep threat that can stretch the field.  With Hamler, MVS, Claypool and Isabella all in the fight, not to mention Shakir and Samuel who have speed, can we finally put that to rest?

[BillsFanForever19]

30 minutes ago, oldmanfan said:

People were all concerned about having a deep threat that can stretch the field.  With Hamler, MVS, Claypool and Isabella all in the fight, not to mention Shakir and Samuel who have speed, can we finally put that to rest?

 

I've said this a few times already, but Hamler is an extreme long shot. I see him as a guy who either shows a little something and his ceiling is the Practice Squad or he shows poorly and is outright cut.

 

He's this year's Andy Isabella. A 2nd Round bust who failed to impress in his 2nd chance in Indianapolis. He's on his 3rd team in less than a year. Regardless of how he looks playing with Trubisky and Buechele in the 3rd and 4th Quarters of Pre-Season games, it's not going to matter - as it didn't for Isabella. Because we know if we release him, the 3rd team to do so in a year, he's not going to be put immediately on someone elses 53 to start the season. Every year, fans play the "there's no way we can get (so and so) back" and every year we do.

 

As for who sticks -

 

Keon Coleman

Curtis Samuel

Khalil Shakir

Marquez Valdes-Scantling

Mack Hollins

Justin Shorter or Chase Claypool

[oldmanfan]

43 minutes ago, BillsFanForever19 said:

 

I've said this a few times already, but Hamler is an extreme long shot. I see him as a guy who either shows a little something and his ceiling is the Practice Squad or he shows poorly and is outright cut.

 

He's this year's Andy Isabella. A 2nd Round bust who failed to impress in his 2nd chance in Indianapolis. He's on his 3rd team in less than a year. Regardless of how he looks playing with Trubisky and Buechele in the 3rd and 4th Quarters of Pre-Season games, it's not going to matter - as it didn't for Isabella. Because we know if we release him, the 3rd team to do so in a year, he's not going to be put immediately on someone elses 53 to start the season. Every year, fans play the "there's no way we can get (so and so) back" and every year we do.

 

As for who sticks -

 

Keon Coleman

Curtis Samuel

Khalil Shakir

Marquez Valdes-Scantling

Mack Hollins

Justin Shorter or Chase Claypool

I think Hamler’s issue in injuries.  But we’ll see.  I think your list is pretty accurate.  Should be an interesting camp.

[njbuff]

The staff thinks Kincaid is going to be the go-to guy for Josh, that 100 catch guy.

 

That’s another reason they aren’t swinging for the finches at the WR position.

[GASabresIUFan]

Nice article about Claypool.  http://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/40192905/chase-claypool-mission-right-now
 

I’ve said since he was signed that he is my favorite for the WR4.  Youth, size and speed and already impressing the coaches.  If he can come in and play to his potential, I think he’ll make Coleman’s transition easier and give the Bills the best 1-5 WRs they have had since drafting Josh. 

[ChevyVanMiller]

On 5/17/2024 at 6:52 PM, njbuff said:

The staff thinks Kincaid is going to be the go-to guy for Josh, that 100 catch guy.

 

That’s another reason they aren’t swinging for the finches at the WR position.

I find it's easier to put seed out for them, rather than taking a swing at them.

[T master]

Well in a nut shell who ever the coaches tell them they want . Beanes job is to take in information from the scouts & him self of course but even if it is someone that he really thought was going to be a good pick up i would believe if they weren't the coaches have the final say on weather they stay or go .

 

If they just don't work out with in the scheme and Brady can't seem to get out of them what he needs i feel he tells McD & Beane nope don't need this guy or this other guy is much better for what i'm trying to do . 

 

Could be way off base but that's just my 2 cents ...

[folz]

I don't think anyone is overly optimistic about the wide receiver room. And I think every Bills fan would feel a lot more comfortable if we knew we had that #1 stud WR.

 

What I think is happening (for those who think too many people are drinking the Kool-Aid on this WR room) is two-fold. It's a bit of off-season rationalization/hope, but it is also people seeing how it could actually work. Seeing how what we do have works and not worrying about what we don't have---having been "realistic" about our cap situation. But, believe me, I have no problem with posters who are not happy with how Beane has handled the WR spot, I understand their viewpoint too. I particularly liked Logic's point about drafting prospects, rather than special teamers with later picks. Not that I want to ignore special teams, but I get what he's saying.

 

What the Bills did add/keep to the WR room though (as opposed to last year) is size, speed, and better hands (not counting MVS, of course). Catch percentages from last year: Kincaid (80.2%), Shakir (75.4%), Davis (55.6%), Sherfield (50.0%), Diggs (66.9%---which dropped to 60.0% over the last 10 games of the season, including the playoffs). Samuel and Coleman are both players with good hands. So, what did we really lose? Diggs. And down the stretch of last season (the last 10 games) Stefon was averaging 50 yards and 0.2 TDs per game. Definitely not #1 WR numbers. And yet the offense still played pretty well. I think with Brady installing a more ball control offense, and Josh spreading the ball around, some of us just see that with better size, speed, hands---even though none of the players are elite, this offense could actually be better this year than last, despite our WR room, on a whole, from the outside, looking really weak. Brady just needs to use each guy he keeps to his skillset specialty. And, obviously, you have to include the TEs in the thought process of the offense as a whole.

 

Also, as far as the WRs go, the way I am looking at it is not #1 to #6, but rather by targets. I see target-share going something like this:

Kincaid (1), Shakir (2/3)/ Samuel (2/3), Coleman (4), Cook/Davis (5), Knox (6)

 

I do think that Samuel is going to be a very good player for us. I really like him and think he will become a fan favorite (NO, not #1 WR stats, but a consistent, solid contributor).

 

But, anyone after that group is 7th in the pecking order for targets---or will be a package-specific, red-zone specific player. There are games where Josh hits 8 or 9 targets, so everyone can eat to an extent, but how much will we really be relying on the rest of those guys (barring injury)? I'm not necessarily counting on any of them being more than expected, but if we hit on one or two guys that really want to reclaim (or start) their career, then we are in even better shape. But, even as they are, used sparingly to their skillsets, I think they can still be assets.

 

MVS may have the best shot. Despite his drops (which the Bills have tried to avoid). He has had the most recent success, has the speed they want, and they are always enamored with guys that torched them previously.

Claypool had 9 TDs his rookie year. I know that was a long time ago, but the more red zone targets, the better, imo. And he's at least shown that he can get it done in the league---again, though it's been a while.

Mack Hollins. Safe player...can keep you afloat for a couple of games if needed and play special teams.

Can Hamler finally put things together...not really expecting it.

Isabella is a practice squad guy for me. Emergency WR/returner.

Shorter/Shavers/Johnson Calling them long-shots/practice squad players (mostly cause we don't really know enough about them).

 

So, best-case scenario for me is MVS and Claypool staking their spots:

Shakir

Samuel

Coleman

MVS

Claypool

Hollins

 

When you factor in how Diggs played down the stretch last year, or in the playoffs altogether (except for 2020), and Kincaid having a full year of experience now, I think that WR room could actually be a good bit better than last year's overall. The whole equaling more than the sum of its parts. A lot does hinge (in my mind) on Coleman coming in and being able to be productive early and often  (as a #3-4 target guy, hopefully moving up to a #2/#3 target guy by the end of the year). So, a lot does ride on him (and counting on a rookie isn't always the safest bet, I get it).

 

The only other problem I see with that six is there are really no permanent return guys. But isn't one of the corners we drafted a good return guy? Maybe we can find that elsewhere on the roster rather than having to keep say an Isabella or Johnson on the 53. Or you keep the returner, say Johnson if he shows he's really good at it, and move Hollins down to the practice squad for emergency use.

 

[GASabresIUFan]

Good article in the Athletic detailing how WRs and their contracts have gotten out of hand and how teams like the Bills, KC and GB are moving on from high priced WRs.  Essentially all the WR are so talented that they are becoming fungible.  This is "moneyball" at it's finest.

 

https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/5510422/2024/05/22/justin-jefferson-contract-nfl-wide-receivers/

[mrags]

34 minutes ago, GASabresIUFan said:

Good article in the Athletic detailing how WRs and their contracts have gotten out of hand and how teams like the Bills, KC and GB are moving on from high priced WRs.  Essentially all the WR are so talented that they are becoming fungible.  This is "moneyball" at it's finest.

 

https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/5510422/2024/05/22/justin-jefferson-contract-nfl-wide-receivers/

Anyone will be happy to say that if they don’t have a Hill, Chase, Jefferson, Adams, Kupp, etc. and of course if you asked any of those teams that don’t have a “high priced” WR they would tell you in a heartbeat they want someone like one of those guys. The trick is, getting them on a rookie deal and getting the 5th year option on them. Anyone team that says different is full of crap. 
 

and even though the general consensus may even be that teams don’t want these guys, someone is still signing them to crazy contracts. Look for JJ and Chase to sign deals that are equal to the highest paid non QB contracts of all time when they sign.