Marquez Valdes-Scantling meeting with the Bills (UPDATE: Signed)

[Buffalo_Stampede]

10 hours ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

 

They "started the offseason" with a WR1 who had just produced 1183 yards on 107 catches and 8 TD's.

 

Samuel, MVS and Claypool didn't even come close to producing those numbers combined. 

 

The strategy the Bills have taken is to hope for unlikely results.   They did it to a lesser extent with Harty and Sherfield last offseason.   And predictably failed.

 

You are welcome to be satisfied with a stick in the eye or a kick in the nuts.......whatever floats you.........but don't try to tell us that p!ss is rain.........just admit you enjoy it because it's sterile and you like the taste. 

 

160 targets. The question we need answered is can any of Kincaid, Samuel, Shakir, and so on handle targets like that.

 

It’s hard to project. 

[Coach Tuesday]

It’s getting humid in here.

[Warriorspikes51]

16 hours ago, TheyCallMeAndy said:

I do think we need to tap the breaks a little, this is a guy who had a 7% drop rate and 54% catch rate last year. 

MVS is a proven playoff performer.  We need more of them

[Doc]

1 hour ago, GunnerBill said:

 

But haven't you heard? Wide receivers are ten a penny and some sort of money ball gumpf about "yard accumulators" means this is actually the Bills out-smarting the league. If only the other teams were smart enough to go with a wing, a prayer, and an alligator armed slot receiver!!

 

Who is that?

[Beck Water]

9 hours ago, hondo in seattle said:

Beane got the Bills into cap trouble and he had to get us out.  That meant Diggs had to go. 

 

9 hours ago, Beck Water said:

The thing is, Diggs did NOT have to go to "get us out" of cap trouble.  It would have cost us less cap this year, and at least allowed us to shop at Price Cutter or Aldi.

 

 

4 hours ago, oldmanfan said:

I have absolutely no evidence to support this, but I’m thinking Josh was sick of dealing with Diggs and wanted him gone.

 

@oldmanfan what you say may very well be true - it may also be true of the organization overall.  We hear various references from guys who have shown themselves to have accurate inside info or connections to people who do, to Diggs pulling various 'stunts' that 'hurt the team' or saying that Diggs and McDermott don't get along or "Diggs is definitely a problem".

 

I thought it was notable that Diggs "Goodbye" instagram post got very few responses from Bills players - I think Dawkins "until next time" which included a pic of him side-eye'ing Diggs, was the only one.  Then there was Allen's carefully crafted response in his OTA presser referring to Diggs as "his brother" followed by a Bills Social Media tiktok of the guys arriving for OTAs featuring the unseen cameraman calling Shakir "Brother" to which Shakir gets in his face and says "Don't Call Me That Again" then Dion turns back from the door and goes after the cameraman for saying "Goodbye, Brother".  I took that as distancing themselves emphatically from the kind of "brotherhood" Diggs and Josh had at the end.

In contrast, there are people with some connections like Joe Buscaglia who say Diggs is a "misunderstood dude", and that he's very emotionally intelligent and thoughtful and self-aware (how that computes along with Diggs in-game and post-game actions, I don't know)

 

The main point is, trading Diggs was NOT a move that had to be made to release us from "cap trouble"

 

The secondary point is - there are rumors about friction in locker rooms all the time and guys not getting along, but players don't usually get slung out the door for it at the expense of cap space and a deep performance hit to the WR room, unless they break team rules or otherwise behave unprofessionally (slacking on the field).  Superficially in terms of numbers, the sensible roster building course would be to draft a guy they could bring on at whatever rate he needs while Diggs is still here for a year, then part ways.

So I would tend to believe there may have been actual performance reasons which might, added to "bad locker room chemistry", lead to a premature parting of the ways.  For example, the Bills have cold hard facts about Diggs performance in practice and games from GPS tracking.  They might know his performance in the 2nd half was hampered by a nagging injury.  Perhaps their medical staff recommended a procedure like a back or oblique muscle repair, which Diggs got additional opinions about and decided against, whereupon the Bills decided to swallow their cap hit medicine this year and move on because they believed the juice he brought wasn't gonna be worth the squeeze, by November.

Edited May 17 by Beck Water

[GunnerBill]

30 minutes ago, Doc said:

 

Who is that?

 

Shakir. 

[Warcodered]

2 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

Shakir. 

Did he kill your dog and we all miss it?

[GunnerBill]

1 minute ago, Warcodered said:

Did he kill your dog and we all miss it?

 

No my dog had the reach advantage. 

[hondo in seattle]

10 hours ago, Beck Water said:

 

You know, I really want to believe this.  I honestly do.

 

Benjamin was, in fact, a #1 WR in Carolina for 2 seasons, sandwiching a year on IR.  And while it wasn't as good, projecting out his first 8 games he might well have finished as their #1 in 2017 with the Ghost of Cam Newton throwing to him.

 

Kerley was actually leading SF in receptions and receiving yards in 2016 with Kaepernick throwing to him.  He was suspended then cut half the 2017 season with the Jets and Josh McCowan, but certainly could have called him #3.  I think it's fair to say in hindsight, he had nothing left and got suspended for PEDs because he was trying to flog his body through a season.  It lasted 1 game here.

 

You may be right.  The Curtis Samuel signing was reminiscent of Beasley to me - steady guy who has produced consistently from the slot.  I'm not sure who is analogous to Brown, though?

 

 

 

The thing is, Diggs did NOT have to go to "get us out" of cap trouble.  It would have cost us less cap this year, and at least allowed us to shop at Price Cutter or Aldi.

 

 

Point taken.  Aldi would be better than Dollar General.  But cutting Diggs does help us get into Aldi next year. 

 

There were better ways to deal with Diggs' cap cost which makes me think there's more to the story.  Was Diggs becoming a locker room cancer?  Was his relationship with Allen declining?  Did the Bills think his skill or commitment were beginning to fade?   I'm sure there was something else behind the decision, but I think the cap was part of it and I'm glad Diggs won't count against us next season.  

 

I tend to believe this:  A QB, once off his rookie contract, is obviously going to be a huge expense.  I think that leaves room for just one pricey, big-splash FA.  We had two: Miller and Diggs.  I think Beane overextended himself in a way that made it challenging to build out the rest of the roster.  He had to course-correct.  Interestingly, he cut the big splash guy who was actually earning his paycheck (mostly) with his play on the field rather than the guy with a limp.    

 

I think to be a top-tier GM, Beane needs to get better at drafting our star players while filling out the rest of the roster with solid - but affordable - FAs.  

 

Edited May 17 by hondo in seattle

[Beck Water]

2 hours ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 The Bills haven't started a season without a WR that had accumulated at least 900 yards(a low bar) in any NFL season since 1987.    

 

Right now, that's the case unless they trade for someone who's proven they can be a WR1 or a good WR2.    

 

It's just another unnecessary leap of faith at the position.........same as the past 2 offseasons(which ultimately failed the team) but a considerably larger leap this time.

 

This is true.  On the other hand, some of the 1000+ yd receivers the Bills have had on the roster were arguably worse than what we have now.

 

For example, I listed the Bills 2018 receiving corps in another post.  The 1000+ receiver we had, was Kelvin Benjamin.  Would you like to make an argument that the 2018 WR corps was (at least on paper) better than what we have now?  Yeah, he had a 1000+ yds as a rookie and >900 the next year he played (3rd league year), but his 2017 production was rather puny.

 

Just out of curiousity, not disbelieving you but who was that 1000+ yd in the NFL WR we started 2014 with?  Or started 2017 with, for that matter?

[oldmanfan]

54 minutes ago, Beck Water said:

 

 

 

 

@oldmanfan what you say may very well be true - it may also be true of the organization overall.  We hear various references from guys who have shown themselves to have accurate inside info or connections to people who do, to Diggs pulling various 'stunts' that 'hurt the team' or saying that Diggs and McDermott don't get along or "Diggs is definitely a problem".

 

I thought it was notable that Diggs "Goodbye" instagram post got very few responses from Bills players - I think Dawkins "until next time" which included a pic of him side-eye'ing Diggs, was the only one.  Then there was Allen's carefully crafted response in his OTA presser referring to Diggs as "his brother" followed by a Bills Social Media tiktok of the guys arriving for OTAs featuring the unseen cameraman calling Shakir "Brother" to which Shakir gets in his face and says "Don't Call Me That Again" then Dion turns back from the door and goes after the cameraman for saying "Goodbye, Brother".  I took that as distancing themselves emphatically from the kind of "brotherhood" Diggs and Josh had at the end.

In contrast, there are people with some connections like Joe Buscaglia who say Diggs is a "misunderstood dude", and that he's very emotionally intelligent and thoughtful and self-aware (how that computes along with Diggs in-game and post-game actions, I don't know)

 

The main point is, trading Diggs was NOT a move that had to be made to release us from "cap trouble"

 

The secondary point is - there are rumors about friction in locker rooms all the time and guys not getting along, but players don't usually get slung out the door for it at the expense of cap space and a deep performance hit to the WR room, unless they break team rules or otherwise behave unprofessionally (slacking on the field).  Superficially in terms of numbers, the sensible roster building course would be to draft a guy they could bring on at whatever rate he needs while Diggs is still here for a year, then part ways.

So I would tend to believe there may have been actual performance reasons which might, added to "bad locker room chemistry", lead to a premature parting of the ways.  For example, the Bills have cold hard facts about Diggs performance in practice and games from GPS tracking.  They might know his performance in the 2nd half was hampered by a nagging injury.  Perhaps their medical staff recommended a procedure like a back or oblique muscle repair, which Diggs got additional opinions about and decided against, whereupon the Bills decided to swallow their cap hit medicine this year and move on because they believed the juice he brought wasn't gonna be worth the squeeze, by November.

Your point about the cap is absolutely correct.

[FireChans]

3 hours ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

 

 The Bills haven't started a season without a WR that had accumulated at least 900 yards(a low bar) in any NFL season since 1987.    

 

Right now, that's the case unless they trade for someone who's proven they can be a WR1 or a good WR2.    

 

It's just another unnecessary leap of faith at the position.........same as the past 2 offseasons(which ultimately failed the team) but a considerably larger leap this time.

 

 

I think you could argue we took a leap of faith at MLB last year? 
 

I guess we had Dodson and Klein in the wings as well.

 

That stat is frightening though.

[Warcodered]

1 hour ago, FireChans said:

I think you could argue we took a leap of faith at MLB last year? 
 

I guess we had Dodson and Klein in the wings as well.

 

That stat is frightening though.

and if we hadn't gotten metaphorically kicked in the nuts by injury at LB last year it would have been a homerun, Benford and Milano were starting to look like a terror.

[BADOLBILZ]

53 minutes ago, FireChans said:

I think you could argue we took a leap of faith at MLB last year? 
 

I guess we had Dodson and Klein in the wings as well.

 

That stat is frightening though.

 

Yeah..........as I said all last offseason.........I never had much concern about MLB because everyone who came before Edmunds and filled in for him had success.

 

Preston Brown lead the NFL in tackles in 2017.  Julian Stanford, Dodson and Klein all played effectively in relief of Edmunds.

 

I always made note of this to the Edmund's apologists who swore that Edmunds impact couldn't be measured in big plays.    That narrative had very deep roots with the shills and their pet homers and yet was essentially abandoned ENTIRELY just a couple games into 2023.

 

And 3rd round off-ball LB's and RB's are like first round WR's.........they should become starters early in their career or the pick is a bust.........and the Bills had expended their last two third round picks on off-ball LB's.   

 

This WR situation has been a lingering issue for years that just keeps getting a bit worse each offseason.

 

 

[Beck Water]

2 hours ago, hondo in seattle said:

Point taken.  Aldi would be better than Dollar General.  But cutting Diggs does help us get into Aldi next year. 

 

There were better ways to deal with Diggs' cap cost which makes me think there's more to the story.  Was Diggs becoming a locker room cancer?  Was his relationship with Allen declining?  Did the Bills think his skill or commitment were beginning to fade?   I'm sure there was something else behind the decision, but I think the cap was part of it and I'm glad Diggs won't count against us next season.  

 

I agree with you that there were better cap (and talent-building) strategies.  I think it was clear that Diggs relationship with Allen was bad, and had been bad for some time - certainly by the end of the 2022 season.  But usually, when guys want to win and recognize talent, they suck it up and figure out how to work together professionally.  I don't know - it may have been a combination of things - declining abilities by objective metrics like GPS tracking of speed and separation; crappy relationship with the QB which didn't allow a "mind meld" that could compensate; organizational headaches - all leading to a decision to sell as high as they could and eat up the cap hit this season, while coping with a huge talent deficit at WR.

 

2 hours ago, hondo in seattle said:

I tend to believe this:  A QB, once off his rookie contract, is obviously going to be a huge expense.  I think that leaves room for just one pricey, big-splash FA.  We had two: Miller and Diggs.  I think Beane overextended himself in a way that made it challenging to build out the rest of the roster.  He had to course-correct.  Interestingly, he cut the big splash guy who was actually earning his paycheck (mostly) with his play on the field rather than the guy with a limp.    

 

I think to be a top-tier GM, Beane needs to get better at drafting our star players while filling out the rest of the roster with solid - but affordable - FAs.  

 

 

I think I agree with your fundamental point, but suggest looking at it as "QB plus handful of pricey guys".  Usually that's the QB, a DB, an OT, a DLman, and a receiver.

 

Taking a peak around the league, on the Ravens we see 6 players who are nomming up >5% of the cap: Jackson, CB, FS, LT, TE, ILB, with DE Madubuike just below it at 4.31%.  Chiefs: Mahomes, G, RT, TE, SS w DE Omenihu just behind them at 4.3%.  Dallas: Prescott, DE Lawrence, WR, G, CB with Michael Gallup (5.4% of the cap) on the books as a post-June 1 cut and T just behind at 4.3%.  Rams: Stafford, Cooper Kupp, DT Aaron Donald coming off the books post June 1, RT and G with a 2nd G just under at 4.96%.

 

So the Bills, starting the off-season with Allen, Diggs (was about 10%, now 12% dead), Tre White (6.4%), and Von Miller over 5% then with Matt Milano 4.87% and Dion Dawkins 4.5%, didn't have an unusual cap allocation.  The problem really wasn't the cap allocation, it was ROI from 3 of the 6 players at the top of the allocation.  Diggs at the end of 2023 and in the 2022 and 2023 playoffs, did not provide good ROI.  Tre, missing 2 of the last 3 seasons due to injury, ditto.  Von Miller, missing effectively half of 2 seasons and playing at a "JAG" level the rest of last season, ditto ditto.
 

Tre' is still young enough by CB standards to have been able to contribute barring repeat injury.  Diggs, it wasn't unreasonable to expect good ROI through at least this next season - he signed a 4 year extension at age 28, 

 

Miller was the big swing-and-miss by Beane.  When you look at the top-paid Edge players, Miller's age at signing sticks out - at least 3 years older than the next closest guy.  Beane took a risk offering him that long of a contract with that much guaranteed, and it didn't pay off. 

 

Edit: to point out that Miller is also the only FA signing in the Bills top-cap collection.  Everyone else was either developed here, or acquired by trade on a moderate contract (Diggs) and extended based on performance on the Bills team.

Edited May 17 by Beck Water

[BADOLBILZ]

1 hour ago, Beck Water said:

 

This is true.  On the other hand, some of the 1000+ yd receivers the Bills have had on the roster were arguably worse than what we have now.

 

For example, I listed the Bills 2018 receiving corps in another post.  The 1000+ receiver we had, was Kelvin Benjamin.  Would you like to make an argument that the 2018 WR corps was (at least on paper) better than what we have now?  Yeah, he had a 1000+ yds as a rookie and >900 the next year he played (3rd league year), but his 2017 production was rather puny.

 

Just out of curiousity, not disbelieving you but who was that 1000+ yd in the NFL WR we started 2014 with?  Or started 2017 with, for that matter?

 

 

When the Bills traded for Kelvin Benjamin during the 2017 season he was producing almost identically to the 2016 season.   A 900-1,000 yard pace.   Which made him a back end WR1 producer in the NFL at that time.   The narrative was that the change of scenery had slowed him and Beane was confident he would be back to his prior excellence.   

 

2014  Mike Williams ( 27 and just one injury plagued season removed from 996 yards and 9 TD's in Tampa).

2017  Jordan Matthews (coming off 1800 receiving yards in the prior 2 seasons).

 

Benjamin, Williams and Matthews career highs were 1,008, 996 and 997 respectively..........so we aren't splitting hairs at 900.

 

You see how soon we forget that 900 yard seasons are a pretty pedestrian achievement?    

 

And yet in an era when there has never been more WR talent in the league the Bills now don't even have a player with even ONE of them.    

 

It's gross.

[Beck Water]

17 minutes ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

 

When the Bills traded for Kelvin Benjamin during the 2017 season he was producing almost identically to the 2016 season.   A 900-1,000 yard pace.   Which made him a back end WR1 producer in the NFL at that time.   The narrative was that the change of scenery had slowed him and Beane was confident he would be back to his prior excellence.   

 

2014  Mike Williams ( 27 and just one injury plagued season removed from 996 yards and 9 TD's in Tampa).

2017  Jordan Matthews (coming off 1800 receiving yards in the prior 2 seasons).

 

Benjamin, Williams and Matthews career highs were 1,008, 996 and 997 respectively..........so we aren't splitting hairs at 900.

 

You see how soon we forget that 900 yard seasons are a pretty pedestrian achievement?    

 

And yet in an era when there has never been more WR talent in the league the Bills now don't even have a player with even ONE of them.    

 

It's gross.

 

No argument at all on the Gross. 

 

Impressed by the Mike Williams call-out.  I would not have picked that up since his contribution was 142 yds in 2014.

I do sense a bit of a "moving bar" since your initial metric was >1000 yd season, which neither Williams or Matthews had.

If we're now looking at 900 yd seasons, a couple of guys we have now came close to that, which along with the Mike Williams ROI, may just illustrate the point that "past performance is indeed no guarantee of future results" (Claypool etc)
 

You're right about Benjamin, but IIRC he tore his meniscus during his 2nd game post-trade (the Peterman game against the Chargers).

 

I don't think you addressed my question though: 
Would you like to argue that the 2018 WR corps was (at least on paper) better than what we have now?

Edited May 17 by Beck Water

[GoBills808]

15 minutes ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

 

When the Bills traded for Kelvin Benjamin during the 2017 season he was producing almost identically to the 2016 season.   A 900-1,000 yard pace.   Which made him a back end WR1 producer in the NFL at that time.   The narrative was that the change of scenery had slowed him and Beane was confident he would be back to his prior excellence.   

 

2014  Mike Williams ( 27 and just one injury plagued season removed from 996 yards and 9 TD's in Tampa).

2017  Jordan Matthews (coming off 1800 receiving yards in the prior 2 seasons).

 

Benjamin, Williams and Matthews career highs were 1,008, 996 and 997 respectively..........so we aren't splitting hairs at 900.

 

You see how soon we forget that 900 yard seasons are a pretty pedestrian achievement?    

 

And yet in an era when there has never been more WR talent in the league the Bills now don't even have a player with even ONE of them.    

 

It's gross.

According to some WR is the new RB anyway 

 

Turns out our FO's just been playing above the rim this whole time😂😂

4 minutes ago, Beck Water said:

 

No argument at all on the Gross. 

 

Impressed by the Mike Williams call-out.  I would not have picked that up since his contribution was 142 yds in 2014.

I do sense a bit of a "moving bar" since your initial metric was >1000 yd season, which neither Williams or Matthews had.

If we're now looking at 900 yd seasons, a couple of guys we have now came close to that, which along with the Mike Williams ROI, may just illustrate the point that "past performance no guarantee of future results" (Claypool etc)

 

I don't think you addressed my question though: 
Would you like to make an argument that the 2018 WR corps was (at least on paper) better than what we have now?

I would say they are comparable

[Doc]

2 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

Shakir. 

 

I get that he has short arms, but I'd prefer to call them T-Rex arms.  Alligator arms implies he shies-away from contact and/or can't catch, neither of which is true.

 

But Samuel has long arms and I expect him to start outside, like did 70% of the time when he was with Brady in Carolina.

Edited May 17 by Doc

[Beck Water]

11 minutes ago, GoBills808 said:

According to some WR is the new RB anyway 

Turns out our FO's just been playing above the rim this whole time😂😂

 

I have read that argument and have read that argument and have read that argument.  Franchise tag values and number of players at that position drafted in the early rounds do not concur.

 

11 minutes ago, GoBills808 said:

[2018 WR corps vs today]  I would say they are comparable

 

I like that other guy better who told me I was wrong to consider that, and 2019 WR with Brown and Beasley would be more comparable (though even there, that was a WR corps that fell way short and left Allen targeting Duke Williams and Pat DiMarco in the playoffs)

Edited May 17 by Beck Water