What will happen with Knox?

[chongli]

On 5/14/2024 at 2:52 AM, Bill from NYC said:

Maybe he will go to a school that is hard.

 

He did go to Hottie Tottie University, as he admits to Case Keenum at TC:

 

[starts at 0:45]

 

 

[mikemac2001]

2 hours ago, Warcodered said:

If the kicker is being forced to be involved on a consistent basis then that does make sense, not Knox specifically though maybe that does for whatever reason, but if your kicker has to take a hit every kickoff you're better off protecting your FG specialist and having another athlete with a leg for generally the less technical kick.

They said in UFL/XFL whatever league used it the kicker was involved in the tackle 25-40% of the times 

 

was from quote for KC coach so if that’s often I think it’s smart to play around with 

[BillsFanForever19]

Knox is our standard hand in the dirt, on the line Tight End.

 

Kincaid is only technically a Tight End. Like Kelce, he's really a Big Slot WR. He doesn't often put his hand down. WAY more often than not, Knox is on the field with Kincaid split out wide next to him.

 

If there's a Tight End on the line, it's going to be Knox unless he needs a breather.

Edited June 3 by BillsFanForever19

[Beck Water]

On 5/13/2024 at 1:33 PM, Chas56 said:

I like Knox and have been a fan; however, I also acknowledge that Kincaid is the better player. Knox has a large contract to be a #2 TE. In addition, there are only so many balls to go around. I don't know if Brady is designing some diabolical two TE sets or whatever. Also, I'm aware that Knox and Allen have a good relationship. I just have a suspicion that something like a trade is going to happen. Am I nuts?

 

Never say never, but a good part of the answer to your question depends upon how much Kincaid's blocking has improved.

 

Knox can block in line and in the backfield.  Last year, Kincaid's blocking consisted of "could get in the way downfield a bit".

 

I would have said that Knox can't be traded currently because while he has a modest $7.7M cap hit after the haircut he accepted, he's got $16.8M of dead cap if traded.  But then there was Diggs.... 

Edited June 3 by Beck Water

[Trev]

I think he’ll continue dropping key passes and taking himself out of games after minor injuries. He will continue missing games due to preventable nagging injuries. Typical Knox. 

[Brianmoorman4jesus]

Man I wish we would make this guy a FB and run a real heavy offense. Knox is awesome with the ball in his hands he just doesn’t catch it. Maybe we can hand it to him or get him in space for some short catch and run FB stuff. Plus he could probably really use that athleticism and strength to open up a lot for the RBs. I’d use him as more of a FB/Hback type and just commit full to the power run game 

[Doc Brown]

4 hours ago, Beck Water said:

I would have said that Knox can't be traded currently because while he has a modest $7.7M cap hit after the haircut he accepted, he's got $16.8M of dead cap if traded.  But then there was Diggs.... 

Diggs was unique in that his personality became too big and we could get valuable trade assets in return (a likely high 2nd rounder next year).  We're not getting that for Knox.  Knox may be overpaid but he's bound to have a better season than last year.  I trust Brady more than Dorsey to try and make him and Kincaid both part of the passing offense especially without the offense running through Diggs anymore.

[Buckets]

On 5/13/2024 at 3:03 PM, Dillenger4 said:

He will have another decent season. His blocking is good! With our "new" pound-it offense and running attack Knox will have a bigger role this season. He is good in the redzone.

This

[HOUSE]

On 5/13/2024 at 2:52 PM, Bills Bud said:

He will be overpaid and remain on the team unfortunately. He is probably the fifth target on this team

[bearstobills]

Personality wise.....he's one of my favorite guys on the team.  I like him as a player too.  I forgive his drops.  For whatever reason, I couldn't forgive Gabe's drops as much.  Good tight ends are hard to come by.  I think he's a good football player and I'm happy we have him.  He took a pay cut so this board had to shut up a bit.  He's worth 7 million dollars and a guaranteed contract next year.  

[Eastport bills]

Knox didn’t deserve that contract and it’s hard to understand why they gave it to him. He’s not durable and still drops too many catchable balls. If he emerges this season with Brady carving out 12 personnel plays for him maybe they’re seeing untapped potential in him. I personally would rather have an effective blocking TE with Kincaid being a primary target and Josh having better protection.

[Mister Defense]

On 5/13/2024 at 2:33 PM, Chas56 said:

I like Knox and have been a fan; however, I also acknowledge that Kincaid is the better player. Knox has a large contract to be a #2 TE. In addition, there are only so many balls to go around. I don't know if Brady is designing some diabolical two TE sets or whatever. Also, I'm aware that Knox and Allen have a good relationship. I just have a suspicion that something like a trade is going to happen. Am I nuts?

 

Well, I don't know you, so don't know if you are nuts  or not. So I'd say a 50/50 chance of this being the case?

 

His 2023 stats: 22 catches for 186 yards. Those numbers scream for a dramatic change this year of some kind.

 

So it does seem a trade is in order, and may happen before the season if the Bills do not plan on using Knox, targeting him as receiver, MUCH more than last year. He was the 9th highest paid tight end in the league, making $13 million, which means he made almost $600, 000 per catch. and about $70, 000 per yard gained.    (Honestly, I would agree to do it for a tenth of that amount.)

 

If not, It is the biggest waste of money on this team, the most glaring waste.

 

What I am hoping for is dynamic use of both tight ends, as Knox's more physical game, nature, and superior blocking ability, could help to make this a great offense this year. The immensely incompetent dorsey did not know how to use one good tight end effectively so using two?, well was impossible for him.  I think Brady making that kind of change so late in the year would have been pretty difficult.  We should see soon if he can do so now that the offense is his own--if Knox is still around.  Or, just hire me for dramatic savings. I may even accept 5% of Knox's deal!

 

 

[SoCal Deek]

5 minutes ago, Mister Defense said:

 

Well, I don't know you, so don't know if you are nuts  or not. So I'd say a 50/50 chance of this being the case?

 

His 2023 stats: 22 catches for 186 yards. Those numbers scream for a dramatic change this year of some kind.

 

So it does seem a trade is in order, and may happen before the season if the Bills do not plan on using Knox, targeting him as receiver, MUCH more than last year. He was the 9th highest paid tight end in the league, making $13 million, which means he made almost $600, 000 per catch. and about $70, 000 per yard gained.    (Honestly, I would agree to do it for a tenth of that amount.)

 

If not, It is the biggest waste of money on this team, the most glaring waste.

 

What I am hoping for is dynamic use of both tight ends, as Knox's more physical game, nature, and superior blocking ability, could help to make this a great offense this year. The immensely incompetent dorsey did not know how to use one good tight end effectively so using two?, well was impossible for him.  I think Brady making that kind of change so late in the year would have been pretty difficult.  We should see soon if he can do so now that the offense is his own--if Knox is still around.  Or, just hire me for dramatic savings. I may even accept 5% of Knox's deal!

 

 

Well said. I posted the same thing a while back and got flamed for it. I wish you better results. 

[Bleeding Bills Blue]

3 minutes ago, Mister Defense said:

 

Well, I don't know you, so don't know if you are nuts  or not. So I'd say a 50/50 chance of this being the case?

 

His 2023 stats: 22 catches for 186 yards. Those numbers scream for a dramatic change this year of some kind.

 

So it does seem a trade is in order, and may happen before the season if the Bills do not plan on using Knox, targeting him as receiver, MUCH more than last year. He was the 9th highest paid tight end in the league, making $13 million, which means he made almost $600, 000 per catch. and about $70, 000 per yard gained.    (Honestly, I would agree to do it for a tenth of that amount.)

 

If not, It is the biggest waste of money on this team, the most glaring waste.

 

What I am hoping for is dynamic use of both tight ends, as Knox's more physical game, nature, and superior blocking ability, could help to make this a great offense this year. The immensely incompetent dorsey did not know how to use one good tight end effectively so using two?, well was impossible for him.  I think Brady making that kind of change so late in the year would have been pretty difficult.  We should see soon if he can do so now that the offense is his own--if Knox is still around.  Or, just hire me for dramatic savings. I may even accept 5% of Knox's deal!

 

 

 

I remember he had a really rough start, then he was injured.  It's hard to evaluate a season when i know he was both playing with the injury, missed a ton of practices with the same injury, and snap counts went down considerably by the end of the season.  Missed 5 games including 2 pre-bye games with Brady at OC.  After that his snap counts were reduced to mostly sub-50% snaps in the 7 games he played upon returning.  He was targeted 11 times in 7 games after his return, but he had 2 TDs.  

 

If he's averaging say - 30 snaps a game down the stretch... and only like 15 of those plays are pass plays... and he's probably pass protection on several of those... doesn't lead to a lot of targets to make a big impact on those stats. 

 

As for his pay - he took a pay cut to stay here and trading/cutting would result in ~12M in dead money next season for limited savings this season.  If they ate the hit for diggs in 2023 i don't think they're moving knox to get blasted in 2024.  Not to mention you probably get worse at the position, that might be more important than ever with changes in the WR room.  

[Rigotz]

The easiest way to determine which posters really understand this team is to ask them their opinion on Dawson Knox.

 

Correct:

The Bills paid Dawson Knox $15M ... then they drafted Dalton Kincaid in the 1st round.

Dawson is an "in-line" blocker and Dalton Kincaid is not.

If that's too hard to understand, I'll put it this way. Dalton Kincaid is a big Wide Receiver.

The Bills run more 2 TE sets than any team in the NFL, simply because Dalton Kincaid is considered a Tight End, who usually plays off the line.

Dawson Knox took a pay cut this offseason and is by all accounts going to be here a long time.

 

Incorrect:

Dawson Knox is not a backup.

Dawson Knox's value is not just catching passes.

Dawson Knox is very, very unlikely to be traded or cut.

[Bleeding Bills Blue]

Just now, Rigotz said:

The easiest way to determine which posters really understand this team is to ask them their opinion on Dawson Knox.

 

Correct:

The Bills paid Dawson Knox $15M ... then they drafted Dalton Kincaid in the 1st round.

Dawson is an "in-line" blocker and Dalton Kincaid is not.

If that's too hard to understand, I'll put it this way. Dalton Kincaid is a big Wide Receiver.

The Bills run more 2 TE sets than any team in the NFL, simply because Dalton Kincaid is considered a Tight End, who usually plays off the line.

Dawson Knox took a pay cut this offseason and is by all accounts going to be here a long time.

 

Incorrect:

Dawson Knox is not a backup.

Dawson Knox's value is not just catching passes.

Dawson Knox is very, very unlikely to be traded or cut.

 

2 of their top 3 players in target share left the roster going into this season, as well as 15 TDs.  I disagree with cutting or trading another guy who has been here for 5 years and has 28 TDs over that time, especially when the savings is basically enough to sign a replacement player - while also adding a massive dead money hit in 2025.  

[Mister Defense]

6 minutes ago, Bleeding Bills Blue said:

 

I remember he had a really rough start, then he was injured.  It's hard to evaluate a season when i know he was both playing with the injury, missed a ton of practices with the same injury, and snap counts went down considerably by the end of the season.  Missed 5 games including 2 pre-bye games with Brady at OC.  After that his snap counts were reduced to mostly sub-50% snaps in the 7 games he played upon returning.  He was targeted 11 times in 7 games after his return, but he had 2 TDs.  

 

If he's averaging say - 30 snaps a game down the stretch... and only like 15 of those plays are pass plays... and he's probably pass protection on several of those... doesn't lead to a lot of targets to make a big impact on those stats. 

 

As for his pay - he took a pay cut to stay here and trading/cutting would result in ~12M in dead money next season for limited savings this season.  If they ate the hit for diggs in 2023 i don't think they're moving knox to get blasted in 2024.  Not to mention you probably get worse at the position, that might be more important than ever with changes in the WR room.  

 

Thanks for the additional stats, info.

 

I should have said:  I would not be in favor of  a trade if the Bills were eating a big chunk of his salary in dead cap money, am almost never in favor of doing that (but understand it for Diggs, someone they now considered detrimental to the team's success.

 

But I would be in favor of a trade if a team paid for all or most of his salary.  There are not a lot of starting caliber tight ends who can catch and block well, so may be an option there.  But again, like I said, would rather he just be used much more this year than any other option. A healthy year this year is almost a must for Knox, --and, if so, think he will really rebound.

 

[Bleeding Bills Blue]

Just now, Mister Defense said:

 

Thanks for the additional stats, info.

 

I should have said:  I would not be in favor of  a trade if the Bills were eating a big chunk of his salary in dead cap money, am almost never in favor of doing that (but understand it for Diggs, someone they now considered detrimental to the team's success.

 

But I would be in favor of a trade if a team paid for all or most of his salary.  There are not a lot of starting caliber tight ends who can catch and block well, so may be an option there.  But again, like I said, would rather he just be used much more this year than any other option. A healthy year this year is almost a must for Knox, --and, if so, think he will really rebound.

 

 

So there's a salary guarantee of 4.5M in 2025 that was included at signing.  So he won't be cut because of that - it would actually cost cap space to cut him.  

 

Trading him another team acquires all of his base salary numbers.  Buffalo would be responsible for all the signing bonuses even on a trade.  In that scenario you would gain 2.6M in cap space in 2024, and eat 12.5M in cap space in 2025 (~17.5M total).  The 2.6M then just pays the replacement, and you have a huge cap hit in 2025 for a player who would then have played elsewhere for both of those seasons. 

[SoCal Deek]

19 minutes ago, Rigotz said:

The easiest way to determine which posters really understand this team is to ask them their opinion on Dawson Knox.

 

Correct:

The Bills paid Dawson Knox $15M ... then they drafted Dalton Kincaid in the 1st round.

Dawson is an "in-line" blocker and Dalton Kincaid is not.

If that's too hard to understand, I'll put it this way. Dalton Kincaid is a big Wide Receiver.

The Bills run more 2 TE sets than any team in the NFL, simply because Dalton Kincaid is considered a Tight End, who usually plays off the line.

Dawson Knox took a pay cut this offseason and is by all accounts going to be here a long time.

 

Incorrect:

Dawson Knox is not a backup.

Dawson Knox's value is not just catching passes.

Dawson Knox is very, very unlikely to be traded or cut.

I believe you’re missing the point. The criticism isn’t directed at Knox, the player. It’s directed at the Front Office for his contract first, and for his use in the offense second. I hope that helps. 

[Mister Defense]

24 minutes ago, Bleeding Bills Blue said:

 

So there's a salary guarantee of 4.5M in 2025 that was included at signing.  So he won't be cut because of that - it would actually cost cap space to cut him.  

 

Trading him another team acquires all of his base salary numbers.  Buffalo would be responsible for all the signing bonuses even on a trade.  In that scenario you would gain 2.6M in cap space in 2024, and eat 12.5M in cap space in 2025 (~17.5M total).  The 2.6M then just pays the replacement, and you have a huge cap hit in 2025 for a player who would then have played elsewhere for both of those seasons. 

 

Thanks a lot--then definitely keep Knox, a high caliber, starting caliber tight end when healthy--and when used effectively.

 

I think he will be a surprisingly important part of the Bills this year--at least, am hoping for that, as he has been someone no one has been talking about, and would add another dynamic dimension to the offense. 

 

He also seems to fit well with what the Bills seem to be looking for with Coleman, a big, tough, physical player capable of winning one on one matches (when he catches).  And the same can be said for  Ray Davis.

 

 

 

 

Edited June 3 by Mister Defense