WR trade candidates, who do you want?

[FireChans]

On 5/15/2024 at 10:40 AM, Einstein's Dog said:

I appear to be in the minority and expect a trade (until it happens and you see all the people come out of the woodwork and say it was obvious).

 

I agree there are 3 locks but none of them are called a top tier WR.  The 7th rookie WR taken (in the 2nd round no less), WR3 from last year, and a less than $10M WR2/3 from Washington.  

 

To me, it's logical to get a top WR for 2024.  There is this huge hole at WR1 and it will also be there for 2025.  So take care of it now -prices just go up.  Also if you get one of the young ones you solidify the offense for several years.  A real phase 2 reload.

 

The main reason so many logical posters here think it won't happen is because of what Beane says.  Even so far as to elicit the "literally 0% chance" quote.  I think a lot of people misinterpret (in a way Beane wants them to) things like "don't expect a trade".  It's setting low expectations.  People have claimed Beane said 'there will be no trade".  I didn't hear this but even if he said it, obviously it doesn't mean no trade ever.  There is an implied time period on that.  The cap excuse is being exposed for the fraud that it is, Tre money coming in and plenty of future cap space is available.

 

Even if you expect a trade, the player will be a surprise.  I put in my top 4 guesses/hopes- Metcalf/Aiyuk/DHop/D Adams.  Any of those would bring Beane back into my good graces.

The Venn Diagram of people who say, “there’s no chance we trade for a #1 WR” and the people who said, “there’s no chance Diggs gets traded,” is a circle.

[Einstein's Dog]

2 hours ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

 

The Diggs trade worked out but it was the culmination of 3 prior offseasons of failure at addressing WR1.    They had to trade for a vet at the worst possible time(a WR deep draft) because there was no longer any margin for error.    He's just refused to get out of front of the problem.  

 

I know we are in agreement on the issue.  The likelihood is that priority #1 going into next offseason will again likely be finding a WR1 so not addressing it now if they have the opportunity makes no sense.

 

Everyone feels brave about what they have on their roster until the pads come on and it becomes clear that you need to win matchups.    Kincaid was a dink-and-dunk option last season and could just as easily turn into Jimmy Graham with Seattle if he has a CB on him every play instead of those favorable S/LB matchups.   Curtis Samuel isn't going to have much success against the high pedigree CB1's in this division.    All it takes is not having somebody to soak up the "Sauce" to create bad matchups for the rest of the group. 

This year's group looks in more dire need of a top WR than when they traded for Diggs.  

 

People thinking as it stands this is a fine job by Beane start to lose a little credibility in my book.  The WR group is just too limited.  I can get around the DE problem, but not the WR.  And the cap excuse doesn't cut it with me either, that is part of his job.  And I feel it can be worked (and actually will).

 

Oldmanfan had asked how one move could mean so much.  It is because it is the lynchpin move.  An additional top tier WR changes the whole outlook of the WR group. It becomes better than last year IMO.   It brings together all the little things Beane did (or didn't do). 

 

[HappyDays]

5 hours ago, Kirby Jackson said:

I think that is one of my biggest frustrations. I’m a big believer in speed. The Bills almost believe the opposite. I’m okay with balance but need speed and explosiveness. They should be a little better after the catch but still haven’t prioritized speed enough for my liking.

 

Speed is good but size and physicality is where we've faltered in the playoffs. That's why I love the Keon Coleman pick. Of course I wanted us to draft one of each type of WR, one for size one for speed. It is frustrating that Beane has continued to do the absolute bare minimum at the position while continuing to invest ample resources in the DL to little effect when it matters. We're entering year 8 now, I think we just have to accept that's who this regime is unfortunately.

 

Edited May 17 by HappyDays

[HappyDays]

4 hours ago, Einstein's Dog said:

I think Beane is an excellent GM and it is really the basis for me thinking he has planned to add a prime WR all along.

 

Unfortunately I think after the MVS signing there is almost no chance of a big trade. Maybe at the deadline.

 

The top 5 WRs are locked in. Coleman, Samuel, and Shakir obviously. Hollins and MVS both got guaranteed money which is a sign that they are roster locks (OJ Howard is the only player that got guaranteed money and didn't make the roster in the Beane era). That leaves room for one more WR. If a trade was in the cards, I don't think we bother bringing Claypool and Hamler to camp.

 

So before MVS I agreed a trade was still likely because there were two open spots and not enough candidates to fill them. With just one open spot I think the WR room is what it is, unfortunately. The 6th spot will be one of the scratch offs we've signed or it will be one of our late round/UDFA rookie WRs from last year.

 

Unless Claypool or Hamler miraculously turns their career around I agree that Beane is going to look stupid but you should accept now that no big moves are coming.

[NeverOutNick]

Since the bills are second chance U with WRs this offseason, I’d be all about signing Corey Davis to compete for one of these outside receiver spots too. He’s been a huge bust thus far but I’ve always thought he had traits that would translate well outside. Why not at this point. Not like he’s ever had a QB like Josh throwing him the ball either 

[Kirby Jackson]

My brother is on a plane right now with Beane. I told him to ask, “why does he only like slow guys?” 😂😂

[Einstein's Dog]

4 minutes ago, HappyDays said:

 

Unfortunately I think after the MVS signing there is almost no chance of a big trade. Maybe at the deadline.

 

The top 5 WRs are locked in. Coleman, Samuel, and Shakir obviously. Hollins and MVS both got guaranteed money which is a sign that they are roster locks (OJ Howard is the only player that got guaranteed money and didn't make the roster in the Beane era). That leaves room for one more WR. If a trade was in the cards, I don't think we bother bringing Claypool and Hamler to camp.

 

So before MVS I agreed a trade was still likely because there were two open spots and not enough candidates to fill them. With just one open spot I think the WR room is what it is, unfortunately. The 6th spot will be one of the scratch offs we've signed or it will be one of our late round/UDFA rookie WRs from last year.

 

Unless Claypool or Hamler miraculously turns their career around I agree that Beane is going to look stupid but you should accept now that no big moves are coming.

I'm obviously having trouble accepting this.  Still in denial.

 

The MVS signing did hurt in terms of the odds of what I want to happen.  But it doesn't change my overall feeling that Beane won't let the Bills main components of the WR room be C Samuel/rookie Coleman/Shakir.

[BillsFanForever19]

4 hours ago, Einstein's Dog said:

I'm obviously having trouble accepting this.  Still in denial.

 

The MVS signing did hurt in terms of the odds of what I want to happen.  But it doesn't change my overall feeling that Beane won't let the Bills main components of the WR room be C Samuel/rookie Coleman/Shakir.

 

Samuel, Coleman, Kincaid, Shakir, Cook, MVS

 

Is there a Top 10 veteran WR in there? No. But 22 teams in the NFL don't have one of those. And while we don't have a Top 10 guy, we have a wide spread of talented players in the Offensive firepower core that spreads larger than most teams.

 

If you take the production (or lackthereof) from Diggs and Davis into account from mid season until the end - it's quite possible, if not likely, we're going to get more out of the additions of Coleman, Samuel, and MVS than we did them, even if they don't have the name Star power.

 

You also shouldn't forget about Kincaid. He's a Tight End almost as much as Von Miller is a LB. He lines up standing off the line 90% of the time as a WR. True, it's inside. And on the Outside, we're hoping we nailed the Coleman pick and he's that guy.

 

But many teams #1 options come from Inside. And in Kincaid and Shakir, they want to give them more than they did last year and see if they grow more. Add in Samuel, also on the Inside, out of the Backfield, in motion, and occasionally Outside - and you've got as deep of an Inside WR talent roster as anyone.

 

Ultimately, do I wish we had more on the Outside than Coleman, MVS, and Hollins? Yes. But we simply don't have the means to do it. The cost is too great. You DO take on the Cap Hit of a traded player (case in point, even after restructuring and massaging Diggs' deal, he still accounts for a 6m cap hit in Houston), you just don't take on the bonus money or dead cap - which lowers it a bit.

 

But of the guys you want (that actually may be available), the cap hit's are SO massive. We have to take on the full hit before we can restructure it. And we simply can't after everything we've already done and the limited amount of moves we have left.

 

Which is why we did what we did. We lost 4 WR's. We brought in 5. We drafted Keon Coleman and signed Curtis Samuel, MVS, Mack Hollins, and Chase Claypool. Coleman, Shakir, Samuel, MVS, and Hollins are locked in. As it is, Shorter, Claypool, Hamler, and the rest of the field are all going to be cut - save for one.

 

This year is about evaluating Coleman, Shakir, and Kincaid in their 1st, 2nd, and 3rd years and seeing what our long term investment into Samuel yields with Josh. Adding someone else to this field pushes some of these guys down to where reps are extremely limited. And you could be burying a Superstar. 

 

Next year's crop of FA WR's is strong and we have even more Draft Capital than we did last year. They'll see where they're at with these guys now. If they're all truly HIM, we won't do much else next year. And if they aren't who Beane thinks they are, they'll get a stud next year.

 

Denial is a good way to put your posts past the MVS signing. Would it be great to have one of those guys? Of course. But that ship sailed long before the MVS signing - which is why the MVS signing happened.

Edited May 17 by BillsFanForever19

[oldmanfan]

5 hours ago, Einstein's Dog said:

This year's group looks in more dire need of a top WR than when they traded for Diggs.  

 

People thinking as it stands this is a fine job by Beane start to lose a little credibility in my book.  The WR group is just too limited.  I can get around the DE problem, but not the WR.  And the cap excuse doesn't cut it with me either, that is part of his job.  And I feel it can be worked (and actually will).

 

Oldmanfan had asked how one move could mean so much.  It is because it is the lynchpin move.  An additional top tier WR changes the whole outlook of the WR group. It becomes better than last year IMO.   It brings together all the little things Beane did (or didn't do). 

 

And I disagree with the linchpin thing.  No one player outside of QB makes the kind of pronounced difference that you’re implying.

 

The linchpin will be Brady and how he sets up the offense.

[Einstein's Dog]

14 hours ago, BillsFanForever19 said:

 

Is there a Top 10 veteran WR in there? No. But 22 teams in the NFL don't have one of those. And while we don't have a Top 10 guy, we have a wide spread of talented players in the Offensive firepower core that spreads larger than most teams.

 

Ultimately, do I wish we had more on the Outside than Coleman, MVS, and Hollins? Yes. But we simply don't have the means to do it. The cost is too great. You DO take on the Cap Hit of a traded player (case in point, even after restructuring and massaging Diggs' deal, he still accounts for a 6m cap hit in Houston), you just don't take on the bonus money or dead cap - which lowers it a bit.

 

But of the guys you want (that actually may be available), the cap hit's are SO massive. We have to take on the full hit before we can restructure it. And we simply can't after everything we've already done and the limited amount of moves we have left.

 

Appreciate the response, some comments.

1.  Top 10?  How about we get a top 30 WR?

2.  How is Diggs a case in point for you?  You mention he is a $6M cap hit, which is exactly what I am talking about.  The ability to get an Aiyuk/Metcalf/D Adams/DHop at that price is what I think many don't realize could happen.   How does restructuring Diggs to $6M mean that the guys I outlined cap hits would be SO massive?  Kind of suggests the opposite to me.  The cap hit can be manipulated to future years.

3.  It seems like people's bias show through.  People that like Beane but don't think a WR addition is happening are making all kinds of excuses.  There is this Teflon Beane going on.  Several people in this thread said "No One", like they really wouldn't want a good WR?   One eluded to reading Shaw's explanation - like adding a good WR would ruin Beane's genius plan to run a bunch of WR2's out there.  Others throw their hands up and say "Beane can't do it because of the cap".  Like Beane has no influence on the cap.

4.  I thought there would be like minded people to me, that believes Beane is a top GM and a top GM will be making a move.  What that move is exactly was open for discussion.  We haven't been able to get that far.  Many feel the need to chime in and reiterate how in their opinion it can't/won't be done.  This has been highlighted by the step by step rebuttal of each of what I perceived to be signs ending with what I hope will be a not soon forgotten classic "there is literally a 0% chance".

 

Back to the OP - I am now rooting for one of the younger options Metcalf/Aiyuk.  It would make for a Phase 2 for offense.  We would have playmakers set for several years and Josh would be the veteran.  Look at the years Josh-locked in, Kincaid 4, Coleman 4, new young stud WR Aiyuk/Metcalf 4, Samuel 3, Shakir 2, Cook 2, Davis 4.  That offense would have just minor changes for the next 4 years!  And that would be a young, potent, talented offense.

[BADOLBILZ]

17 hours ago, BillsFanForever19 said:

 

Is there a Top 10 veteran WR in there? No. But 22 teams in the NFL don't have one of those.

 

And while we don't have a Top 10 guy, we have a wide spread of talented players in the Offensive firepower core that spreads larger than most teams.

 

 

 

 

Terrible takes highlighted.

 

The Bills leading returning receiver was 56th in the NFL in yardage in 2023 so noting that the Bills just don't have a "top 10" receiver is minimizing the issue for effect.    Like when McDermott's response to having the worst NFL scoring offense in the SB era halfway thru the 2018 season was "would we like to score 50 every game?  Sure."   

 

There were 5 NFL teams with TWO players in the top 32 in receiving yardage in 2023 and it's been that way for quite a few years now.    One of them has continually been the Chiefs.   Having two very high quality receiving targets has been a key characteristic of SB contenders for over a decade now.

 

And no, the Bills haven't proven that they have a "wide spread of talented players" by any measure.    Four in the top 100 does not "spread larger than most teams".    

 

Receiving yardage 2023

Kincaid 56th

Samuel 65th

Shakir   66th

Cook     99th

MVS     140th

Hollins  161st

Knox     206th

 

[BADOLBILZ]

On 5/17/2024 at 11:42 AM, FireChans said:

The Venn Diagram of people who say, “there’s no chance we trade for a #1 WR” and the people who said, “there’s no chance Diggs gets traded,” is a circle.

 

It always comes back to cap space

 

[BigDingus]

As is the norm, fans like to think their team improved more than regressed each off season.

 

Unfortunately, our competition doesn't stand stagnant & also makes changes. 

 

We lost our both our number 1 & number 2 WRs and people are acting like we got better. There isn't a WR we signed that has has been more productive than Gabe, let alone Diggs.

 

At best, we're hoping Brady is enough of an improvement to make up for that loss of production, and that Josh can distribute those lost yards/receptions among a committee of less productive players. 

 

I keep seeing people penciling in clean sweeps of the division when making their W/L predictions. We lost to the Jets 2 of the last 3 years, just as we lost to the Pats 2 of the last 3 years (and Fins once). Doesn't matter how crappy they've been, assuming we'll go 6-0 against the division isn't realistic. 

[Mat68]

40 minutes ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

 

 

Terrible takes highlighted.

 

The Bills leading returning receiver was 56th in the NFL in yardage in 2023 so noting that the Bills just don't have a "top 10" receiver is minimizing the issue for effect.    Like when McDermott's response to having the worst NFL scoring offense in the SB era halfway thru the 2018 season was "would we like to score 50 every game?  Sure."   

 

There were 5 NFL teams with TWO players in the top 32 in receiving yardage in 2023 and it's been that way for quite a few years now.    One of them has continually been the Chiefs.   Having two very high quality receiving targets has been a key characteristic of SB contenders for over a decade now.

 

And no, the Bills haven't proven that they have a "wide spread of talented players" by any measure.    Four in the top 100 does not "spread larger than most teams".    

 

Receiving yardage 2023

Kincaid 56th

Samuel 65th

Shakir   66th

Cook     99th

MVS     140th

Hollins  161st

Knox     206th

 

Curious where Shakir and Kincaid rank in targets.  With both player recieving more usage there numbers will improve.  In terms of Te Kincaid is projected to be a top 5 TE.  Coleman is projected by many to be a top 30 wr.  Last year Kelce had 980 yards and Rice had 935.   I dont find it hard to believe for Shakir or Coleman to get to that.  Kelce 98 catches for 980 and 5 tds is not out of the range of outcomes for Kincaid.  I know it is projection but that is what it always is. 

[BADOLBILZ]

34 minutes ago, Mat68 said:

Curious where Shakir and Kincaid rank in targets.  With both player recieving more usage there numbers will improve.  In terms of Te Kincaid is projected to be a top 5 TE.  Coleman is projected by many to be a top 30 wr.  Last year Kelce had 980 yards and Rice had 935.   I dont find it hard to believe for Shakir or Coleman to get to that.  Kelce 98 catches for 980 and 5 tds is not out of the range of outcomes for Kincaid.  I know it is projection but that is what it always is. 

 

 

The money lines......which are the projections that matter as much as any "projection" can.........they are NOT on those projections you are making up.

 

 

[RobbRiddick]

I'm in the camp who thinks if a trade comes it will be during the season if the passing game is struggling or maybe there's an injury to one of the main guys. But if we're at the trade deadline looking in bad shape, will Beane push the panic button or will he cut his losses, take the higher draft pick and right the year off as the transition people have spoken of.

 

It might be that the team is looking good but just needs that one final piece to put them over the top for a playoff push. I think that's the more likely scenario if it does happen at all.

 

Oh, and I would love DK Metcalf 

[SCBills]

1 hour ago, BigDingus said:

As is the norm, fans like to think their team improved more than regressed each off season.

 

Unfortunately, our competition doesn't stand stagnant & also makes changes. 

 

We lost our both our number 1 & number 2 WRs and people are acting like we got better. There isn't a WR we signed that has has been more productive than Gabe, let alone Diggs.

 

At best, we're hoping Brady is enough of an improvement to make up for that loss of production, and that Josh can distribute those lost yards/receptions among a committee of less productive players. 

 

I keep seeing people penciling in clean sweeps of the division when making their W/L predictions. We lost to the Jets 2 of the last 3 years, just as we lost to the Pats 2 of the last 3 years (and Fins once). Doesn't matter how crappy they've been, assuming we'll go 6-0 against the division isn't realistic. 

Pats should be bad to meh, at best.

 

Dolphins are alot like us.  Added some, lost some and enter the season wondering what/when they get in two of their top defensive guys (Phillips/Chubb).

 

Jets got better.  Might have the best roster on paper.  But are old and beat up at some very important positions, including QB.  IF the wheels don’t come off, they should be tough, but it seems like more of a when, not if, that happens. 

[billsfan89]

On 5/17/2024 at 11:42 AM, FireChans said:

The Venn Diagram of people who say, “there’s no chance we trade for a #1 WR” and the people who said, “there’s no chance Diggs gets traded,” is a circle.

 

I didn't think there was a chance Diggs got traded this season. I do think there is a chance this team does trade for a "big time" WR but I think a trade is more likely to come at or near the trade deadline. I think for one cap wise the team even once Tre's money hits on June 1st they don't have too much to play with. They are going to have about 12.7 million once Tre's money hits. I think currently they have about 2.7 million in cap space but 10 million will get added on June 1st. But the rookie contracts will eat into that 2 million. They then will have to reserve 4 million for the practice squad and another 3ish million for in season emergencies. That will only leave them with about 3-4 million they can truly play with to make a big trade. 

 

3-4 million will go a lot farther on a trade deadline deal when the team making the trade will have already paid some money and bigger cap numbers will be easier to absorb. I think with the addition of MVS puts them in a spot where they can "see what they have" and then understand what type of WR they need and have a better chance to fit that need under the cap. 

[folz]

On 5/13/2024 at 10:00 AM, Einstein's Dog said:

To me the WHO is someone who is expected to be at least as good as Diggs in 2024.  That is the bar that Beane needs to hit to try for year over year improvement.

 

And yes, a trade for a top tier WR pulls the whole actions together - the letting Diggs go, only drafting one WR in a loaded draft, no major FA pickups.  It all comes together with this one move.

 

20 hours ago, BillsFanForever19 said:

 

Samuel, Coleman, Kincaid, Shakir, Cook, MVS

 

Is there a Top 10 veteran WR in there? No. But 22 teams in the NFL don't have one of those. And while we don't have a Top 10 guy, we have a wide spread of talented players in the Offensive firepower core that spreads larger than most teams.

 

If you take the production (or lackthereof) from Diggs and Davis into account from mid season until the end - it's quite possible, if not likely, we're going to get more out of the additions of Coleman, Samuel, and MVS than we did them, even if they don't have the name Star power.

 

 

I agree with BillsFanForever19

 

Look, I loved having Stefon Diggs on the Bills and I supported Gabe here more than most...

 

But, this idea that Diggs/Davis' production isn't replaceable (outside of nabbing a true, stud, #1 WR) is a fallacy.

 

Here is what Diggs/Davis averaged over the last 10 games last year (including the two playoff games):

 

Diggs: 4.7 receptions, 50.8 yards, and 0.2 TDs

Davis: 1.4 receptions, 31.2 yards, and 0.2 TDs

 

They only had 4 combined TDs over the last 10 games (down the stretch and in the playoffs---granted, Gabe missed the two playoff games---but the best ability is availability). That means 6 games with no TDs from either Diggs or Davis, in crunch time.

 

Gabe had two games over 100 yards in that span, but also had 4 games with 0 receptions, and missed the two playoff games due to injury.

Diggs had zero games over 100 yards in that span, he only had one game over 75 yards in that span.

 

Diggs started off last season great, but then something happened. Who knows if Diggs fell off the cliff due to age, Brady taking over the offense, disgruntlement (lack of effort), or a combination of all three, but the decline was significant:

 

In the first 9 games last year, Diggs had 734 yards and 7 TDs (or 82 yards and 0.78 TDs per game), with a catch percentage of 75%.

 

In the last 10 games last year, Diggs had 508 yards and 2 TDs (or 50.8 yards and 0.20 TDs per game), with a catch percentage of 60%.

[I mean, 50 yards/game and a TD every 5 games, you can get that production from any mediocre WR in the league]

 

And just FYI:

The Bills went 5-4 in the first 9 games (when Diggs was playing well).

The Bills went 7-3 down the stretch (when Diggs' production had fallen off), including a 7-1 stretch.

Obviously, so many other factors go into records, but just pointing out that the team didn't collapse, or do worse in the win column, when they weren't getting the same production from Stefon.

 

So, are we really saying that the guys we have now can't match that production? 6 recs, 80 yards, and less than half a TD per game? Even if you take Kincaid, Shakir, and Cook out of the picture (because they were on the field too when Diggs and Davis got those numbers), are we really saying that the combination of Samuel, Knox, Coleman, MVS, Claypool/Hamler/Hollins (whoever gets the time on the field), can't average 80 yards/game and one TD every 2.5 games? Is it outrageous to think that say Samuel and Coleman have like 30 yards each and maybe 20 yards to Knox (if Kincaid and Shakir are the top two targets, say). And then one of the three of them scores a TD say every third game? It doesn't take that much to match that production.

 

I actually think that the sum of the parts of this year's team will add up to more than the whole of last year's team (at least as far as pass catchers/offense goes). So, I don't think we are as bad off as some think. It really won't take much to at least maintain a status quo---matching the production of Diggs/Davis down the stretch of last year.

 

 

[3rdand12]

1 hour ago, RobbRiddick said:

I'm in the camp who thinks if a trade comes it will be during the season if the passing game is struggling or maybe there's an injury to one of the main guys. But if we're at the trade deadline looking in bad shape, will Beane push the panic button or will he cut his losses, take the higher draft pick and right the year off as the transition people have spoken of.

 

It might be that the team is looking good but just needs that one final piece to put them over the top for a playoff push. I think that's the more likely scenario if it does happen at all.

 

Oh, and I would love DK Metcalf 

Trade during the season ?