Shakir starter or complement piece?

[NewEra]

I think he’s likely to be top 3 in targets.  Doesn’t really matter if he’s a starter or not.  
 

Within the first month I think Keon will have a similar snap count to Gabe based on his run blocking but I think Shakir will get more targets.  I expect a continued high use of the run game
 

Barring injury, in order of targets, I’ll go:

Kincaid

Shakir

Samuel

Keon

Cook

Knox

Hollins

Davis

 

 

[Sierra Foothills]

1 hour ago, JohnBonhamRocks said:

I’m just happy someone used complement correctly

 

Yes, he should be complimented.

 

[LABILLBACKER]

I see Shakir as a faster long term version of Beasley.  I see him as a #3  and Coleman/Samuel as both #2 types. We don't have a true WR1, but Kincaid could fill that role eventually. 

[sven233]

The Bills are going into this season without a true #1 WR.  However, I would make the case that you could see WR2 production out of like 2 to 3 guys which is a bit different.  I fully expect Kincaid to lead this team in targets and I think he will be completely up to it.  I really believe he is a star in the making. 

 

Will this approach work?  I don't know.  I will say that with Allen, he's always shown a willingness to just go to the open guy.  So, if this is the philosophy of the whole team, and all the WRs buy into the whole being better than the sum of the parts, then it could work and could make this offense even more difficult to defend than  when Diggs always had to be the first read.  If you can scheme up plays, all designed to feature different players and different times out of different formations and alignments, the defense will have a tough time just trying to focus their attention in one place. 

 

I sincerely hope this approach works.  Obviously, I want us to have a successful season and win the Super Bowl, but if we show that we can win this approach, it will save us from having to pay one WR $30 million plus in the next couple years.  And with star WRs salaries spiking, that number could be even bigger down the road.  That said, this works only if the WRs you have are truly unselfish.  Obviously everyone is looking for that big payday some day, but if you have a bunch of guys catching 55-60 balls for 800 yards and nobody gets featured, I just hope these guys are OK with not seeing the huge pay day down the road.  Could be a bit tricky, but I really do hope this approach works.  Otherwise, we might be heading into next year's draft with the same goal as we had with this one.....trying to find WR1.

[Nephilim17]

1 hour ago, BADOLBILZ said:

Having Metcalf as the lead WR outside would allow the Bills some time to develop Keon Coleman and not force targets to him.

If we got Metcalf, how do you see Samuel's role, boundary or splitting slot time with Shakir? Who would be the other boundary starter, Samuel or Coleman?

Sounds good to me but I would hope that we didn't waste $8,000.000 per year for three years on a back-up slot guy. 

[JakeFrommStateFarm]

21 minutes ago, NewEra said:

I think he’s likely to be top 3 in targets.  Doesn’t really matter if he’s a starter or not.  
 

Within the first month I think Keon will have a similar snap count to Gabe based on his run blocking but I think Shakir will get more targets.  I expect a continued high use of the run game
 

Barring injury, in order of targets, I’ll go:

Kincaid

Shakir

Samuel

Keon

Cook

Knox

Hollins

Davis

 

 

I think most likely based on last year

 

X - Samuel/Claypool

Z - Keon/Shakir

Y - Shakir/Keon

 

TE - Kincaid will split snaps with Knox at the TE position so will get about the same amount of targets as last season 

 

The rest are fighting for backup spots

 

Shorter - Backup the X or Z position 

 

Claypool- backup to all 3 WR positions

 

The other guys may not make the roster

 

[Einstein's Dog]

2 hours ago, Kirby Jackson said:

 

This is where I’m at with him. I think that he can absolutely be an important piece on a good team. If he is the top guy in your WR room, that’s not ideal. I think similarly of Samuel. I think Coleman can be a better Gabe. If the Bills acquire a number 1 via trade or the draft in the next year that room will be fine (assuming Coleman is a better Gabe). A depth chart of Ayiuk (Burden, Jefferson, Higgins or whomever), Coleman, Shakir/Samuel, Shakir/Samuel. That would be a very good WR room.

 

My issue with the Bills WR room is the top of the depth chart not the balance. If they inserted someone at the top, it could be a good group. 

Who is Burden?

 

I'm with you, get the trade for the top WR.  I think the main choices are Aiyuk, DK Metcalf. D Adams, DHop.

[Buffalo_Stampede]

Only one way to find out.

[NewEra]

17 minutes ago, JakeFrommStateFarm said:

I think most likely based on last year

 

X - Samuel/Claypool

Z - Keon/Shakir

Y - Shakir/Keon

 

TE - Kincaid will split snaps with Knox at the TE position so will get about the same amount of targets as last season 

 

The rest are fighting for backup spots

 

Shorter - Backup the X or Z position 

 

Claypool- backup to all 3 WR positions

 

The other guys may not make the roster

 

I think Hollins > Claytool based on their contracts. Hollins making over 2x the $ and has a 1.1M dead cap.  Claypool 25k.  If I’m wrong, then that’ll be a great thing, as maybe he has figured out how to be a pro. I’m happy that we rolled the dice on him based on potential.  

[McBean]

4 hours ago, Mat68 said:

Your opinion of Khalil Shakir is your opinion of the 24 Buffalo Bills offense.  Will Shakir develop into a starting wr and a feature of the passing attack or be a nice role player?  If you think he can be a feature of the offense then your overall expectations for 24 are still high.  If he is just a nice slot guy your hoping for a massive trade.  You feel the offense is subpar and a major concern moving forward. 
 

Shakir had a year of a nice third guy.  39 catches 611 yards.  He was not used the first 6 weeks.  Only received 5 targets and 4 catches.  You take his usage from week 7 to 18 over a full season thats 52 catches for 882.  Doesnt knock your socks off but you can see why he would be looked at a bit differently.  
 

There are alot of targets available 160 from Diggs and 81 from Davis.  They were also highly inefficient players.  Diggs catch % last year was 66 and Davis was 55.  Shakir was at 85.  In general Shakir made the most of his opportunities.  I do not see him getting Diggs work load.  I dont see any weapon getting that.

 

 I think Shakir will be used a tick more than he was down the stretch.  I think he has a chance at being a 1,000 yard receiver and I dont think it is that much of an ask.  If you see Shakir as a possible 80 catch 1,000 yard guy your not hanging your hopes on a big time trade.  Worked with Cook.  Worked with Benard. I think it works with Shakir. 

new #1

[Bills Bud]

I don’t think he is going to be as good and consistent as people think. He only had a few decent games, and now teams have tape on him so it’s only going to get tougher.

[BADOLBILZ]

7 minutes ago, Nephilim17 said:

If we got Metcalf, how do you see Samuel's role, boundary or splitting slot time with Shakir? Who would be the other boundary starter, Samuel or Coleman?

Sounds good to me but I would hope that we didn't waste $8,000.000 per year for three years on a back-up slot guy. 

 

 

I would expect Samuel to be outside at the expense of Coleman's playing time in that scenario.   For Samuel be top 3 in snaps played for WR  in a hypothetical that would include Metcalf and Shakir.   The time is now for Curtis Samuel.  He's in his prime and knows the offense and has had success in it.     

[Kirby Jackson]

40 minutes ago, Einstein's Dog said:

Who is Burden?

 

I'm with you, get the trade for the top WR.  I think the main choices are Aiyuk, DK Metcalf. D Adams, DHop.

 

[PBF81]

Excellent possession receiver with outstanding hands who's good at finding soft spots in coverage.   

 

 

[Don Otreply]

2 hours ago, blacklabel said:

He shall catch 496 bawlz for 19,941 yards and probably no less than 300 touchdowns. 

 

In the first week. 

And there will be much rejoicing…

[transient]

The last time the Bills didn't have a true WR1 was 2019. Beasley and Brown both saw just over 100 targets each. They were essentially it for receiving weapons, with both generating about 70 catches a piece. After that it was Knox, Singletary, McKenzie, Yeldon and Gore with minimal production.

 

I could see a scenario where Kincaid, Samuel, and Shakir each get 100+ targets, with Cook and Davis potentially splitting 70-80+ targets and Knox, Holliins +/- Claypool getting in the 20-40 target each range.

 

I think it's difficult to project what Coleman ends up with. Regardless of their receiving corps situation, I don't see them relying on him unless he demonstrates an ability to carry the load as a rookie like Kincaid did, which could be anywhere from 50-100 targets (Kincaid had 91 as a rookie).

 

Re the original post about Shakir, I don't see them using him like a WR1... and I don't want to see them try to use him like a WR1 because I think that would be a gross overestimation of his skill, but that is not to say I think an offense that spreads the wealth among these players couldn't work. He could lead the team in targets, catches and yards, but if he does, I don't think it will be as lopsided as Diggs 160 targets with the next closest just breaking 100. 

 

I don't really support either of the OP's suppositions, that we're either fine with Shakir and everything is all set, or we're screwed. I'm of the opinion that we can compete with the roster we have, but that we're not going to get the offensive output that we're accustomed to seeing since 2020. I think it's a compromise during this cap reset and that with the addition of a true WR1 next offseason we'll be back to our old ways.

 

Hopefully having a bunch of quality receiving options despite not having a true WR1 will allow Brady to take advantage of the bottom of the opponent's secondary depth without having to rely on replacement level players like Sherfield and Harty to try to do it.

[BillsFanForever19]

He's the starter at Slot.

 

He'll share the role with Kincaid (occasionally working at TE with his hand on the ground) and Samuel (working there, out of the Backfield, in motion, and the occasional outside reps) - and probably often as one of two inside in 4 WR sets. But I see Shakir as the starter there.

[NoSaint]

4 hours ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

 

I would expect Samuel to be outside at the expense of Coleman's playing time in that scenario.   For Samuel be top 3 in snaps played for WR  in a hypothetical that would include Metcalf and Shakir.   The time is now for Curtis Samuel.  He's in his prime and knows the offense and has had success in it.     

yup. And Samuel can be inside, outside, backfield, in motion. 
 

I think a lot of folks are expecting a lot out of rookie WR7 early. 
 

I also think a lot of people are building in razor thin margins for error or injury when building out their distributions of snaps/targets etc…

Edited May 11 by NoSaint

[TheyCallMeAndy]

He’s our starting slot WR.

 

Slot isn’t on the field for 80%+ of the snaps, he played 52% last year. I think 60-65% of the snaps is a far guess for this upcoming season. Cole’s top season was 72%, then 66% and 62%.

 

 

[Ethan in Cleveland]

Shakir will be one of the most interesting stories of 2024.  Can he be 90-100 reception guy that is a dependable move the chains slot WR. I don't think he has the elite quickness that Edelman, Beasley, and Welker did. These were elite slot guys that just simply could not be covered. Hopefully that is what he becomes.

However I think he will be a role player that maybe can get up to 50 receptions and 750 yards in a more balanced attack with Samuel and Kincaid/Knox/Cook.