Shakir starter or complement piece?

[DeepPass]

This guy is a STARTER!

[GreggTX]

How is this a serious question. Once he was finally given the opportunity, he broke out in a big way.He'll have many more opportunities this year. I'll be amazed if he doesn't have a big year unless he gets hurt (knock on wood).

[Mat68]

16 hours ago, kitchen sink said:

 

 

This is my hope for Shakir and everyone else for that matter.

 

The catch rate for Shakir with that many targets is probably not reasonable, but hope springs eternal.

This is the chart I saw early in the off season.  You can see what Buffalo is doing.  They are creating the offense around Shakir, Kincaid and Cook.  All of them in there first or second years.  They caught the ball and produce with 3rd 4th 5th targets in the offense.  Went on their run when they were larger pieces of the game plan.  Obviously, Shakir may see a dip in efficiency but I don't see it falling off completely. Samuel, Hollins, Coleman all fit in around them.

[Mat68]

17 hours ago, JoshAllin said:

I'm down on Samuel due to the fact I know nothing much about him. Any playing time Samuel takes from Shakir or spilts in snaps would be a negative for me as I feel Shakir is the better and best option. Basically I want them on the same field and not sharing snaps

Think of what Emmanuel Sanders was mixed with Mckenzie.  Samuel is very good historically vs man coverage.  Runs a full route tree.  Also, in college was the Percy Harvin role in Urban Myers offense at OSU.  Can line up in the backfield and take handoffs, jet sweeps or any creative way you can think of.  His best season was with Brady in Carolina.  Over 800 yards recieving had over 1,000 scrimmage yards including his rushing.  He isnt a superstar but capable number 2 wr with speed and comfortable running the ball.  

5 hours ago, GreggTX said:

How is this a serious question. Once he was finally given the opportunity, he broke out in a big way.He'll have many more opportunities this year. I'll be amazed if he doesn't have a big year unless he gets hurt (knock on wood).

I think there is a correlation in your belief in Shakir, and perceived need to trade for a proven Wr.  Like you I think Shakir is prime for a break out year.  I dont expect Buffalo to make any splash moves because of this.  

[Bangarang]

He's both

[Alphadawg7]

On 5/11/2024 at 8:47 AM, BuffaloBillyG said:

I believe it was said at the Combine that the Bills view him as a "#3 WR". I think that's fair. Yes with enough volume and targets he could pass 1000 yards (if plays all 17 games that's just a hair over 59 yards a game). 

 

I don't want to see them make the mistake the made with Gabe Davis. Gabe was a WR3 that they pushed up the depth chart. I'd like to see them keep Shakir there and if he gets some added opportunity, so be it. But I believe Coleman/Samuel will be a solid 1-2. 

 

I see them moving Shakir around a bit. Some inside, some outside. He and Samuel will almost certainly in my opinion be in motion a bit. Find the mismatches and exploit. 

Gabe wasn’t pushed up the depth chart, he is a boundary WR, essentially WR2 as people know it.  That is his positional role.  Doesn’t mean he’s the “2nd option” in the passing game though, that is what they drafted Kincaid for with Diggs, to bring in their “Kelce” in terms of an offensive role.  
 

Gabe had limitations as a WR, but he also had a lot of value as a blocker and doing dirty work.  Sanders was washed, so Gabe coming off a big post season seemed poised to start.  And while he had limitations he still produced like a WR2 stat wise his first year starting and playing on a bum ankle.  
 

Heading into the 2023 draft, they were high on Addison and Kincaid…both to be upgrades as Allen’s secondary target in the pass game and we got Kincaid.  Gabe had a similar year and they let him walk as they knew they were going to.  
 

So I don’t think he was “pushed” up, he played well enough to earn the starting spot once Sanders was toast.  And then from their he just plateaued and didn’t continue to ascend into a more complete WR as hoped and they moved on. 

[Alphadawg7]

I put this up way back on April 4th…this is how I feel about Shakir and how much confidence I have in him…and have since his name was called on Draft night.  I’ll break it down by targets though here:

 

If he gets 90-120 targets this year he will be anywhere from 900-1250 yards.  And I do think he will finish the season within that range of targets.  

 

 

[BADOLBILZ]

4 minutes ago, Alphadawg7 said:

I put this up way back on April 4th…this is how I feel about Shakir and how much confidence I have in him…and have since his name was called on Draft night.  I’ll break it down by targets though here:

 

If he gets 90-120 targets this year he will be anywhere from 900-1250 yards.  And I do think he will finish the season within that range of targets.  

 

 

 

 

 

Yeah the problem with that prediction is that it varies from high WR2 production into possible All Pro consideration.

 

It's too broad to convey the confidence level.   

 

When you get there it's kinda' like Parcell's old adage about it being MUCH easier to get to 9-10 wins than to the 11-13 win level.

 

When people were assuming that Gabe was going to be able to assume all of the WR2 snaps going into 2022 my take was that he needed to produce over 1100 yards to replace the impact of having him in a 1-2 combo with Sanders.    Of course,  those numbers never came to pass with the elevated role.  

[MrEpsYtown]

Yeha is definetly a starter and a nice piece. He started to come into his own in the offense and I think he can play. I think a lot of fans are sleeping on Curtis Samuel, but having him and Shakir working routes all over the place, a tight end like Kincaid and a big "X" like Coleman, I think the offense will be deadly and multiple. Add Cook out of the backfield and you have some pretty deadly weapons and Shakir ill be a big part of it. 

[Mat68]

3 minutes ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

 

 

Yeah the problem with that prediction is that it varies from high WR2 production into possible All Pro consideration.

 

It's too broad to convey the confidence level.   

 

When you get there it's kinda' like Parcell's old adage about it being MUCH easier to get to 9-10 wins than to the 11-13 win level.

 

When people were assuming that Gabe was going to be able to assume all of the WR2 snaps going into 2022 my take was that he needed to produce over 1100 yards to replace the impact of having him in a 1-2 combo with Sanders.    Of course,  those numbers never came to pass with the elevated role.  

I think the difference may be that Davis never improved his efficiency.  His 50-55 catch percentage was the same when he got 63 and when he got 95.  If Shakir shows a slight regression from 87% to 79% that is still an improvement for the offense.  If Shakir gets a similar increase Davis saw from 21 to 22 that is 95.  Thats 75 catches for roughly 1100 yards.  
 

Ayuik in year 3 got 115 targets for 78 catches and 1015 yards.  Shakirs last half of the year and playoffs were similar to Ayuiks 2nd season.  I think the team will see if Shakir can handle the volume.  Similar to Cook last season.  If he does that resources can be invested or added next offseason without giving up picks.  

[kitchen sink]

3 hours ago, Mat68 said:

This is the chart I saw early in the off season.  You can see what Buffalo is doing.  They are creating the offense around Shakir, Kincaid and Cook.  All of them in there first or second years.  They caught the ball and produce with 3rd 4th 5th targets in the offense.  Went on their run when they were larger pieces of the game plan.  Obviously, Shakir may see a dip in efficiency but I don't see it falling off completely. Samuel, Hollins, Coleman all fit in around them.

Interesting that you saw this chart early in the office season. 

 

I note that as I just put this chart together for this post. 

 

Someone else must have a similar perspective as mine.

[Mat68]

10 minutes ago, kitchen sink said:

Interesting that you saw this chart early in the office season. 

 

I note that as I just put this chart together for this post. 

 

Someone else must have a similar perspective as mine.

Maybe it was yours in April.  Thought I saw something similar on twitter. 

[Alphadawg7]

1 hour ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

 

 

Yeah the problem with that prediction is that it varies from high WR2 production into possible All Pro consideration.

 

It's too broad to convey the confidence level.   

 

When you get there it's kinda' like Parcell's old adage about it being MUCH easier to get to 9-10 wins than to the 11-13 win level.

 

When people were assuming that Gabe was going to be able to assume all of the WR2 snaps going into 2022 my take was that he needed to produce over 1100 yards to replace the impact of having him in a 1-2 combo with Sanders.    Of course,  those numbers never came to pass with the elevated role.  

 

Well the problem is we have no idea how the target distribution is going to take shape this year.  Well over 200 targets are now gone off the roster between Diggs, Davis, Sherfield, and Harty where 160 of them were from 1 target in Diggs.  

 

Shakir is literally the only WR on the roster that knows the offense or has any experience and chemistry with Allen.  His role, while both Diggs and Davis were here, after Brady took over would have projected out to 828 yards over a 17 game season...again, that is with Diggs and Davis still on the roster and healthy.  

 

Now Diggs and Davis are gone...with them here he would have probably been an 800-900 yard WR this season as that is easily what he was last year with them.  Its not at all a stretch to think without them his production rate can elevate easily 20% and maybe as much as 40-50%, especially when he was essentially our best WR the 2nd half of the season and playoffs, and is the only guy who knows both Allen and the offense.  

 

And everyone likes to counter that it was because Diggs drew extra coverage...well Davis didn't...and while Diggs did get some extra coverage, it gets a bit exaggerated around here, especially on the impact it had on Shakir if you watch every catch of his last season like I have.  But most importantly, this will be a spread the ball around offense, it's not going to need at all to rely on one guy drawing extra coverage, there will be exploitable matchups across the offense.  You don't role extra coverage to Coleman, his size, hands, and catch radius will beat you.  Samuel runs a 4.3, not a guy to disregard in the offense who had his best years under Brady.  Shakir proved to be a reliable and dangerous weapon both before and after the catch last year and is referred to as "Deebo Lite" for a reason.  Kincaid is a mismatch over the middle who you can't ignore.  

 

This team may not have a Justin Jefferson today...but it has a group that for once finally excels at both route running, short area burst, YAC, and Hands.  This isn't KC where outside of Kelce it was a crap shoot if a WR was gonna drop the ball or screw the game up in some other way.  Beane is building an offense of "pick your poison" for the defense with guys who can catch, who are tough, and excel at both route running and YAC.  

 

So, I do not at all think its unreasonable that his involvement and production can see at least a 20% uptick...and based on his role last year under Brady, that 20% uptick puts him over 1000 yards this season.  And I will take a step further and say a 20% uptick is probably his floor.  How much above that will come down to how big of a role really Coleman establishes this year and what role Samuel settles into from a target share perspective.

 

 

[Yawning Frog]

Nice player I like him very excited to see how he progresses.

[JohnNord]

On 5/11/2024 at 12:22 PM, Kirby Jackson said:

 

This is where I’m at with him. I think that he can absolutely be an important piece on a good team. If he is the top guy in your WR room, that’s not ideal. I think similarly of Samuel. I think Coleman can be a better Gabe. If the Bills acquire a number 1 via trade or the draft in the next year that room will be fine (assuming Coleman is a better Gabe). A depth chart of Ayiuk (Burden, Jefferson, Higgins or whomever), Coleman, Shakir/Samuel, Shakir/Samuel. That would be a very good WR room.

 

My issue with the Bills WR room is the top of the depth chart not the balance. If they inserted someone at the top, it could be a good group. 

This is where I’m at as well.  Some fans are delusional believing that Shakir is going to put up 100+ catches for 1,000+ yards to fill the void left by Diggs.

 

What bothers me about the build of this team is that everyone knew they needed to improve at WR after last season. Beane spent and entire press conference talking about it. But then they essentially make the WR room worse than last season.  
 

Everyone talked about getting better at WR this past offseason and we’ll be doing it again next offseason.