Shakir starter or complement piece?

[Shaw66]

You know, I've been looking at this thread title for a while now, and I thought it would be something to good to talk about.  So, I finally looked at the thread a couple of minutes ago, read several posts.   Here's what I've concluded:

 

I have no friggin clue what to expect from Shakir, and from the looks of the posts here, no one else does, either.  

 

The one thing that several people have said and that I think is the best guess is that the Bills are going to spread the ball around a lot.  Someone will lead the team in targets, and someone will lead in receptions, but who that will be won't be known until pretty far into the season.  The Bills don't have a classic #1 guy any longer, but they have a lot of interesting talent to throw onto the field. Any one of Kincaid, Shakir, Samuel, or Coleman could end the season has the leading receiver. 

 

For the passing game to succeed, someone has to go over 1000 yards.  Not likely that two will.   A successful season for the passing game might feature guys with the following total yards:  1400, 900, 800, 800.   Cook, Davis, Knox, etc. might total 600-800 together.  That's 4500 yards.  Completely doable, even though we don't know which guy will be at 1400.  

 

It's up to Brady to design the passing offense and for Allen to execute it.   If they both do their jobs, the passing game will be fine because, even without a classic #1 guy, the receiving talent is pretty good, maybe very good.   

[SoonerBillsFan]

7 hours ago, Mat68 said:

Your opinion of Khalil Shakir is your opinion of the 24 Buffalo Bills offense.  Will Shakir develop into a starting wr and a feature of the passing attack or be a nice role player?  If you think he can be a feature of the offense then your overall expectations for 24 are still high.  If he is just a nice slot guy your hoping for a massive trade.  You feel the offense is subpar and a major concern moving forward. 
 

Shakir had a year of a nice third guy.  39 catches 611 yards.  He was not used the first 6 weeks.  Only received 5 targets and 4 catches.  You take his usage from week 7 to 18 over a full season thats 52 catches for 882.  Doesnt knock your socks off but you can see why he would be looked at a bit differently.  
 

There are alot of targets available 160 from Diggs and 81 from Davis.  They were also highly inefficient players.  Diggs catch % last year was 66 and Davis was 55.  Shakir was at 85.  In general Shakir made the most of his opportunities.  I do not see him getting Diggs work load.  I dont see any weapon getting that.

 

 I think Shakir will be used a tick more than he was down the stretch.  I think he has a chance at being a 1,000 yard receiver and I dont think it is that much of an ask.  If you see Shakir as a possible 80 catch 1,000 yard guy your not hanging your hopes on a big time trade.  Worked with Cook.  Worked with Benard. I think it works with Shakir. 

Our starters will be Coleman, Shakir and Samuel, With Kincaid as TE 1 and Cook.

 

But don't expect traditional X,Y,Slot roles.  They will all be rotated if Brady is implementing the offense he ran at LSU.  

[Dr. K]

Bills receivers last year saw 545 targets total. Assuming that the Bills throw the ball as much as they did in 2023 (they may not, however):

 

WIDE RECEIVERS (329 targets last year):

 

Shakir got only 45 targets last year. I think that doubles this year to 90.

Assuming Coleman gets integrated into the offense quickly, he may start slowly but by the end of the season gets 85. 

Samuel gets 75.

Last year Sherfield got 22 targets. This year Shorter plays and gets 20.

Hollins gets 20

Hamler or Claypool 10

 

 

TIGHT ENDS (82 total last year):

 

Kincaid got 91 targets in 2023. I think he gets at least that many. Say 100.

Knox sees more action and gets 50 targets.

 

RUNNING BACKS (85 total last year):

 

Cook had 54 targets in 2023. He gets 60 targets in '24.

Murray got 22 in 2023. His replacement Davis gets 20 in '24.

Johnson gets 10.

 

That totals 540 targets.

 

Of course this is may all be moonshine. I'm assuming tight ends and running backs are used more as pass receivers than they were in the first half of 2023. I may be very wrong about Knox getting targeted more; if so his increased targets will be scattered among the others. 

 

 

 

Edited May 11 by Dr. K

[JoshAllin]

Without Diggs or Davis in the lineup, I see Shakir getting 100+ yrd games more easily than last season. He had about 2-3 last season on less snaps. Most wanted him in the lineup more so it'd be a waste not making him a pivotal piece in the lineup this season

[AlCowlingsTaxiService]

Could be a poor mans Bobby trees, but I think he’s more of a complimentary piece than a starter.  We’ll know a lot more this coming season, as he’s not going to sneak up on anybody now.

[Sierra Foothills]

4 hours ago, Einstein's Dog said:

Who is Burden?

 

I'm with you, get the trade for the top WR.  I think the main choices are Aiyuk, DK Metcalf. D Adams, DHop.

 

Yeah I don't know who he was talking about either but I'm fundamentally opposed to adding any player who doesn't pull his own weight.

 

JMO.

 

[T master]

What position Brady chooses to use him in i think he will be a integral part of the offense, Josh has more chemistry with him now & knows he can trust to go to him in a lot more situations and seeing as Diggs is no longer there one would think he's going to go to the guy at first that he is more comfortable with .

 

The new additions this year will get some work with Josh in OTA's & mini camp but their chemistry won't be apparent for a minute, i think by mid season they will be full on as far as having a better feel for who can do what especially knowing Brady will have his concepts put into the offense this year no more Dabol/Dorcey  influences .

[Yantha]

He's a very solid slot.

 

 

[3rdand12]

1 hour ago, AlCowlingsTaxiService said:

Could be a poor mans Bobby trees, but I think he’s more of a complimentary piece than a starter.  We’ll know a lot more this coming season, as he’s not going to sneak up on anybody now.

yea . he will be noticed even more by D Coordinators 

 Could go the other way. Gaining more looks or getting less tosses.

But spreading the ball around will be the Brady Bunch game

Edited May 12 by 3rdand12

[MasterStrategist]

9 hours ago, Mat68 said:

Your opinion of Khalil Shakir is your opinion of the 24 Buffalo Bills offense.  Will Shakir develop into a starting wr and a feature of the passing attack or be a nice role player?  If you think he can be a feature of the offense then your overall expectations for 24 are still high.  If he is just a nice slot guy your hoping for a massive trade.  You feel the offense is subpar and a major concern moving forward. 
 

Shakir had a year of a nice third guy.  39 catches 611 yards.  He was not used the first 6 weeks.  Only received 5 targets and 4 catches.  You take his usage from week 7 to 18 over a full season thats 52 catches for 882.  Doesnt knock your socks off but you can see why he would be looked at a bit differently.  
 

There are alot of targets available 160 from Diggs and 81 from Davis.  They were also highly inefficient players.  Diggs catch % last year was 66 and Davis was 55.  Shakir was at 85.  In general Shakir made the most of his opportunities.  I do not see him getting Diggs work load.  I dont see any weapon getting that.

 

 I think Shakir will be used a tick more than he was down the stretch.  I think he has a chance at being a 1,000 yard receiver and I dont think it is that much of an ask.  If you see Shakir as a possible 80 catch 1,000 yard guy your not hanging your hopes on a big time trade.  Worked with Cook.  Worked with Benard. I think it works with Shakir. 

Shakir is the definition of a complementary WR.  People like to 'extrapolate' his stats to a full season, based on a small sample.  

 

He had some big plays, then some games where he wasn't exactly consistent.  

 

In terms of targets, I'd guess in the 70 range...if he can stay healthy.  He got banged up in preseason LY, which is why he didn't have a role early on.  Fighting off the rib injury.

 

Shakir is a nice guy as a WR3/4.  He's an average slot, IMO.  

 

We have a better slot WR on the team, in Curtis Samuel.  Samuel creates better separation, and similar YAC ability.

 

That's all to say, this is how I see our targets shaking out (barring injury):

1. Kincaid

2. Samuel

3. Coleman

4. Shakir

5. Cook

6. Knox/Davis/other WRs & RBs

 

I think Samuel will lead the team in receiving, but won't surpass 900 yards.  I see Kincaid, close to that as well.  Coleman in the 800s too, and Shakir around 700-750.

 

We have a "full" complement of players this year, I think our best "1-1" matchups will be: Kincaid, Samuel and Coleman. 

 

Not a knock on Shakir, but with Samuel on board...it's a total wildcard how they plan to use 2 primarily slot guys.  Samuel is better there, IMO.  If I had to guess, both Smauel and Shakir get close to 50-60% of their snaps in the slot ( Samuel on the higher end).  I'm not confident in Shakirs outside game, especially downfield.

 

I think Coleman is going to be integrated early and often.  He might be one of our best blocking WRs by end of camp, and can see Brady running a more balanced run/pass attack.  

 

Our best weapons as of now might be in the backfield and Kincaid.  Samuel then Coleman then Shakir.  I'd be hitting the under 1k yards HARD, if any betting sites have that prop bet on Shakir.

 

 

[BuffaloBillsGospel2014]

10 hours ago, Mat68 said:

Your opinion of Khalil Shakir is your opinion of the 24 Buffalo Bills offense.  Will Shakir develop into a starting wr and a feature of the passing attack or be a nice role player?  If you think he can be a feature of the offense then your overall expectations for 24 are still high.  If he is just a nice slot guy your hoping for a massive trade.  You feel the offense is subpar and a major concern moving forward. 
 

Shakir had a year of a nice third guy.  39 catches 611 yards.  He was not used the first 6 weeks.  Only received 5 targets and 4 catches.  You take his usage from week 7 to 18 over a full season thats 52 catches for 882.  Doesnt knock your socks off but you can see why he would be looked at a bit differently.  
 

There are alot of targets available 160 from Diggs and 81 from Davis.  They were also highly inefficient players.  Diggs catch % last year was 66 and Davis was 55.  Shakir was at 85.  In general Shakir made the most of his opportunities.  I do not see him getting Diggs work load.  I dont see any weapon getting that.

 

 I think Shakir will be used a tick more than he was down the stretch.  I think he has a chance at being a 1,000 yard receiver and I dont think it is that much of an ask.  If you see Shakir as a possible 80 catch 1,000 yard guy your not hanging your hopes on a big time trade.  Worked with Cook.  Worked with Benard. I think it works with Shakir. 

 

From what i saw didn't Shakir basically take over the role of Davis when Davis went down with an injury?

 

I think going forward that Keon Coleman will be given every opportunity to be the #1 WR, with Khalil Shakir as the #2 and Curtis Samuel in the slot. That's where i think everyone is most dangerous imo. Unless we bring in Michael Thomas or trade for another WR then i think that will be the plan going forward.

[Kirby Jackson]

2 hours ago, Sierra Foothills said:

 

Yeah I don't know who he was talking about either but I'm fundamentally opposed to adding any player who doesn't pull his own weight.

 

JMO.

 

He will be the first WR drafted next year. He will likely go in the top 5. If the Bills don’t go the veteran route they can try to go way up for him. It’s another option for the top of the depth chart but obviously not for this year. 
 

p.s. I like a good dad joke. Well done!!

[Sierra Foothills]

13 minutes ago, Kirby Jackson said:

Burden will be the first WR drafted next year. He will likely go in the top 5. If the Bills don’t go the veteran route they can try to go way up for him. It’s another option for the top of the depth chart but obviously not for this year. 

 

Sounds like a Beast!

 

[White Linen]

5 hours ago, Shaw66 said:

You know, I've been looking at this thread title for a while now, and I thought it would be something to good to talk about.  So, I finally looked at the thread a couple of minutes ago, read several posts.   Here's what I've concluded:

 

I have no friggin clue what to expect from Shakir, and from the looks of the posts here, no one else does, either.  

 

The one thing that several people have said and that I think is the best guess is that the Bills are going to spread the ball around a lot.  Someone will lead the team in targets, and someone will lead in receptions, but who that will be won't be known until pretty far into the season.  The Bills don't have a classic #1 guy any longer, but they have a lot of interesting talent to throw onto the field. Any one of Kincaid, Shakir, Samuel, or Coleman could end the season has the leading receiver. 

 

For the passing game to succeed, someone has to go over 1000 yards.  Not likely that two will.   A successful season for the passing game might feature guys with the following total yards:  1400, 900, 800, 800.   Cook, Davis, Knox, etc. might total 600-800 together.  That's 4500 yards.  Completely doable, even though we don't know which guy will be at 1400.  

 

It's up to Brady to design the passing offense and for Allen to execute it.   If they both do their jobs, the passing game will be fine because, even without a classic #1 guy, the receiving talent is pretty good, maybe very good.   

 

The Bills didn't have a classic #1 since week 6 last year, in terms of performance.  I know Diggs commanded attention but I think we're ready for this.

[Shaw66]

33 minutes ago, White Linen said:

 

The Bills didn't have a classic #1 since week 6 last year, in terms of performance.  I know Diggs commanded attention but I think we're ready for this.

You're right about 2023.  I'm excited about 2024.  I think the passing offense will have an entirely new look.  

[SoonerBillsFan]

5 hours ago, Shaw66 said:

You know, I've been looking at this thread title for a while now, and I thought it would be something to good to talk about.  So, I finally looked at the thread a couple of minutes ago, read several posts.   Here's what I've concluded:

 

I have no friggin clue what to expect from Shakir, and from the looks of the posts here, no one else does, either.  

 

The one thing that several people have said and that I think is the best guess is that the Bills are going to spread the ball around a lot.  Someone will lead the team in targets, and someone will lead in receptions, but who that will be won't be known until pretty far into the season.  The Bills don't have a classic #1 guy any longer, but they have a lot of interesting talent to throw onto the field. Any one of Kincaid, Shakir, Samuel, or Coleman could end the season has the leading receiver. 

 

For the passing game to succeed, someone has to go over 1000 yards.  Not likely that two will.   A successful season for the passing game might feature guys with the following total yards:  1400, 900, 800, 800.   Cook, Davis, Knox, etc. might total 600-800 together.  That's 4500 yards.  Completely doable, even though we don't know which guy will be at 1400.  

 

It's up to Brady to design the passing offense and for Allen to execute it.   If they both do their jobs, the passing game will be fine because, even without a classic #1 guy, the receiving talent is pretty good, maybe very good.   

Spot on.  I think we see a 4000 yard passing season from Josh with a better TD to Int ratio than in the past.

 

I know it agrivates and even worries some folks,but I just don't see us having a traditional #1 WR this year.  And it's ok.

[Ray Finkel]

I met Shakir and Bernard at a local golf course a few weeks ago.  These two young athletes were so respectful and conversational.  The Bills should be so proud of these athletes who represent the organization with such class.  It was a pleasure to talk with them.

[GASabresIUFan]

Wasn’t Shakir a starter last year?

[Freddie's Dead]

Big Tupac fan.  He needs way more targets, because dude just makes plays, over and over again.  

[machine gun kelly]

18 hours ago, Mat68 said:

Your opinion of Khalil Shakir is your opinion of the 24 Buffalo Bills offense.  Will Shakir develop into a starting wr and a feature of the passing attack or be a nice role player?  If you think he can be a feature of the offense then your overall expectations for 24 are still high.  If he is just a nice slot guy your hoping for a massive trade.  You feel the offense is subpar and a major concern moving forward. 
 

Shakir had a year of a nice third guy.  39 catches 611 yards.  He was not used the first 6 weeks.  Only received 5 targets and 4 catches.  You take his usage from week 7 to 18 over a full season thats 52 catches for 882.  Doesnt knock your socks off but you can see why he would be looked at a bit differently.  
 

There are alot of targets available 160 from Diggs and 81 from Davis.  They were also highly inefficient players.  Diggs catch % last year was 66 and Davis was 55.  Shakir was at 85.  In general Shakir made the most of his opportunities.  I do not see him getting Diggs work load.  I dont see any weapon getting that.

 

 I think Shakir will be used a tick more than he was down the stretch.  I think he has a chance at being a 1,000 yard receiver and I dont think it is that much of an ask.  If you see Shakir as a possible 80 catch 1,000 yard guy your not hanging your hopes on a big time trade.  Worked with Cook.  Worked with Benard. I think it works with Shakir. 

I see him as a third and slot WR.  Typically slot WR get lots of balls thrown at him.  Look at Beasley in his prime.